00:00Welcome, everyone. My guest today is lead analyst Logan Motoshami to talk about the inflation data
00:11and what it means for mortgage rates. As always, I want to thank our sponsor Optimal Blue for
00:16making this episode possible. Logan, welcome back to the podcast. It is wonderful to be here. It's
00:22early Friday morning. I'm in Florida. You're in New York. I am in New York. We're both at least
00:28on East Coast time. So we can get up early and do this. Yeah. So this is very early for me. And
00:33what a week. It's inflation week. And even with inflation coming in hotter on the core side of
00:40things, mortgage rates are still near year to date lows. And oh, the spreads. Thankfully, the spreads
00:49are doing what they normally do. I think now people are starting to like yesterday's pricing when the
00:5410-year yield went vertical, 10 basis points. We were flat for most of the day up until toward the
00:59end where there was a little bit of repricing higher. But if the spreads had not improved
01:06from 2024 levels, even especially from 2023, mortgage rates would be so much more elevated
01:12than what they are. But we're at that point of the cycle where even like we talked about last time,
01:18even when yields go up, it limits the damage. And I think yesterday was a really good case for people
01:24to see about it. Okay. Let's talk about the inflation. Let's talk about the numbers that
01:29came in and whether they surprised you or whether you thought they were about right.
01:33So for me, I look at it in this way. The Federal Reserve raised their inflation expectations. So they
01:39told the marketplace 3% inflation. And really that's PCE inflation. That's personal consumption
01:45expenditures. If you look at that, both the inflation reports, you could kind of still see
01:52that companies are really taking the brunt of this damage. But with commodities inflation and food
02:01inflation, we're tariffing bananas. Why are we tariffing bananas? And because you're not
02:09tariffing air, the PPI inflation number was hot. And it's going to be very hard to break under that
02:19418 level on the 10-year yield that we've talked about unless the labor data gets weaker. And if the
02:26labor data was not weak at all, the 10-year yield is 450 to 470. Mortgage rates are close to 7%
02:38or higher in this environment. So whether you are pro tariff or not pro tariff, the bond market doesn't
02:46care, doesn't have feelings or emotions or anything. The bond market is telling you, boy, you really
02:52need labor data weakness to justify getting kind of any lower. So a lot of the pricing is in. So this
03:00becomes this battle between labor over inflation and the Fed and the marketplace. And the marketplace is
03:07still not, you know, because it's a fair question. If the labor data is weaker than it was last year, why is it
03:14the 10-year yield? You know, last year we got to 3.63% on the 10-year yield. It got near 6% rates because the
03:21market, the bond market believed that the economic data was getting weaker then. But the Fed's inflation
03:28expectations were lower last year. They're higher this year. And they're not forecasting breakaway inflation or anything
03:35like that. But they're at 3%. They're 1% above their target. So it becomes more of a, you know, retail sales
03:43is about to come out in about half an hour. You know, all these economic datas are going to get more
03:47valuable. If the growth rate of inflation was heading toward 2%. In that context, it's different. But we're
03:55heading toward kind of the target level. So it becomes a little bit more complicated. Knowing
04:03Trump, probably he's going to have to have a game plan against companies that raise prices. I could
04:10totally see this happening over the next six months. If prices start to go up and people see it, he's
04:18probably going to go after companies, you know, and publicly call them out. Because Bissette talked
04:24about, well, we believe corporate profits are going to go back to pre COVID levels. See, that's a
04:29legitimate claim. Somebody has to pay the price. And, and if corporations are going to eat it, then
04:35Bissette is right, their corporate profits have to come down to to offset it.
04:41Talk about what this means for, you know, we've been thinking that a September rate cuts baked in at
04:47this point. What does this do to that? September rate cut is still in. Again, the labor data, you
04:55know, there's a lot of discussions, some of the Fed presidents were talking about, well, you know what,
04:59if job growth is slowing down, because population growth is slowing down, a lot of people are using
05:03that excuse, even for myself, I mean, I would say 78,000 is kind of break even, we actually talked
05:09about this a few months ago, if population growth is not there, you know, it's labor force growth is not
05:16growing, then you don't need as much. However, that's not this labor data that's getting softer,
05:22you know, continuing claims are at a three year high, manufacturing jobs are being lost, residential,
05:27this is not about, you know, population growth, there are there are systemic data lines that are
05:33that are starting to get softer. So because of that, mortgage rates are year to date lows, basically.
05:40The September rate cut is in, of course, a lot of people say, well, now that with the PPI inflation
05:46is CPI, you're not getting a half a percent cut. But really, it you the job data needs to warrant it
05:52now. Because if it wasn't if we were printing 133,000 per month, there's no cuts. And we talked about that
06:00we made that podcast recently, what is the case for no rate cuts? Well, the economic data has to outperform labor
06:07data can't be getting weak. And consumption is going to hold up even with some of the pricing getting stronger.
06:14So that's the case for no cuts. So we're still in the rate cut, but so much of the mortgage pricing is
06:20already in, right? That 10 year yield is not breaking that 418 level, you know, anytime. So
06:26this isn't who cares if they cut rates, it's irrelevant to mortgage rates, because so much
06:31is already priced in. This is what we're trying to see the market gets ahead of the Fed, the rate cut
06:36is irrelevant. It's the economic data that takes you there first. And the Fed follows,
06:41which is why last year in September, we had a rate cut and mortgage rates went up.
06:46Well, last year was was this was such a different case, because last year, the 10 year yield was at
06:50363. That was what I mean, we were so ahead of the Federal Reserve, that if we weren't breaking down
06:58into a recession, bond yields have to go straight back up that you know, the Fed was so behind what
07:03the market was. So it's the rate cut is irrelevant in that discussion. Now, rate cuts happening allows the
07:11band to go lower. This is a good example of this year, you know, why we have year to date lows in
07:16mortgage rates. But if the labor data starts to improve, and the economic data starts to improve,
07:22you know, we're we're not going much lower than where we are right now. You know, that's that's
07:27just how the function of markets work. And what happened with the inflation data recently.
07:32So just I mean, you and I talk about this all the time, literally every day, I you know,
07:38you're writing about it, we're talking about on the podcast. And I still like if I'm out there in and
07:43I'm running a mortgage company, if I'm a real estate agent trying to figure out what my fall
07:47looks like, is it like, hey, just about what it looks like now, that's that's where you're going
07:51to be on mortgage rates. If the economic data gets weaker, you can go lower, but it needs weaker
07:57economic data. This is why we want to teach people you have to follow the labor data, you cannot sit
08:03and wait and say, well, so and so said three rate cuts, so and so for four, that helps in the future,
08:11the spreads are really good. But what this what what inflation week showed is that, you know,
08:17there's levels that you're going to need to earn it. Because this is not like we're heading toward
08:232% to the target level. You know, the Fed raised their inflation expectations. If we were heading
08:29toward 2% and inflation targets were 2%, the whole different story, 10 year yield is, you know,
08:34fighting the hood or line, you know, but that's not that's not happening. And for right now, it looks
08:41like the brunt of the damage is taken in by corporations. But this is something to be mindful
08:47of. Because what the what the 10 year yield did this week is not abnormal to me. It's basically saying,
08:54hey, listen, this is not heading toward 2% anymore. The PPI inflation are hot core CPI is 3.1%. You know,
09:02you really need weaker data to warrant heading any lower at this point. And of course, we're a year to date
09:09lows because the spreads are better, which is the blessing, because if that wasn't the case, you're much
09:16higher this year with mortgage rates.
09:20Once again, the spreads are the hero this year, keeping mortgage rates low. So one of the things
09:25that I've heard about the labor data is that and you talked about this, like if you're just not
09:30growing population growth, and if you're taking immigration out of the equation to a large part,
09:36what does that do to the labor data as far as like how many people are working? You talked about this
09:41before, like your employment rate can change because like how what's the denominator there?
09:45So the unemployment rate can stay lower for longer. If your labor force growth is a great last year,
09:53you know, the last few years when the unemployment rate was rising, but we weren't losing any jobs
09:57because the labor force growth was picking up. So you have more people looking for work because you
10:02have more people looking for work. Now, there's there's this huge fight going that there's nothing
10:07wrong with the labor market because population growth. The Federal Reserve is starting to go to that
10:12tactic. Also, some some other people are starting to go this. That's not what's going on with the
10:19labor data right now, because you wouldn't have manufacturing jobs being lost. You wouldn't have
10:24residential construction jobs being lost if it was just population growth. Those are two key sectors.
10:31Of course, there is the AI impact and data centers being built. Whatever the money is going to AI,
10:37we do see labor weakness that has nothing to do with population growth out there. So there's
10:42there's a difference because a lot of people are saying there's nothing wrong with the with the
10:46jobs report because, you know, almost everyone is working. Continuing claims, manufacturing data
10:52and residential don't show that. That gets into a little bit more of the sophisticated discussion
10:58of labor force. But this is one of the things we talked about before the year. If the labor force
11:03growth stays constant and grows, the unemployment rate is going to rise. If it doesn't, you know,
11:10unemployment rate could stay lower for a longer period, even if job growth is slowing down.
11:15We're running a three month average of 35k. No, even even if even if you adjusted to the most extreme
11:21labor force growth, that is a very, very negative trend. And that has nothing to do with population
11:27growth out there. I did. The Fed is starting to make that debate. But that's not what's happening to
11:32the labor data right now. Continuing claims are elevated at three month high manufacturing jobs are
11:37being lost. Residential. These are things that toward an end of a cycle, it becomes very apparent.
11:44So we don't want to ignore history here. The labor data isn't breaking because jobless claims isn't
11:49breaking, but it's definitely softer. And it's not all population growth slowing down.
11:55Okay, so we had some, I think Trump said that he was going to, he might do it sooner rather than
12:00later as far as name the next Fed chair. What did you make of that?
12:03You know, it's, it's, it's, it's all a game. We talked about this last time. They have like 11
12:07people now out there. And then he's talking about choosing, I think settling, settling down on a Fed
12:14choice. You know, partly, I think Trump likes having Powell as a punching bag. But partly is, you know,
12:20when you get all the deals in and everything, then you can work on something. But we punted China away
12:26for another 90 days. And there's just a lot of friction going on with that. I don't know if he's
12:32tactically waiting for a certain moment to do this. But man, does the economic data become more valuable
12:39now out there? Because I thought that what the bond market did was was correct. It doesn't matter
12:44who the Fed chairman is, at this point. You can't have core CPI at 3.1% and PPI inflation rising and
12:54then, you know, think, well, we're heading back to 2% at that point. That's, that's, that's not
13:00happening anymore.
13:01Okay, so what you're going to be looking at retail sales today, but that doesn't usually,
13:05you know, move what we look at too much, right?
13:09Consumption is, you know, one of the more hawkish Fed presidents said,
13:12consumption data is holding up, you know, so retail sales does matter because the Federal
13:18Reserve likes to use the real sales data and GDP as their barometer of the economy. If you lose that,
13:26you know, I mean, that was one of the weaker things in the GDP report. Consumption is slowing down. So
13:31the Fed believes that the reason they're not hiking rates is that you don't hike rates into a tariff
13:37situation because it just makes things worse. But as Jerome Powell said, we're kind of
13:42ignoring the inflation data now by not raising rates. Well, the Fed funds rate is still elevated
13:47to the growth rate of inflation, even if you take the CPI report. So they're, they're still,
13:52they still feel comfortable with that, but it just becomes the economic data just becomes more
13:57valuable. If, if, if CPI inflation was down to two and a quarter, whatever, and PPI inflation was
14:05light, whole different story. We're talking about this week, you know, we possibly could have broken
14:09that 418 level. That's, that's just not the case. So in about 30 minutes, we're probably going to get
14:14retail sales and the 10 year yield is at 429. So we get to, we get the test now this battle, because
14:20if the labor data wasn't weakening, they're not cutting in this, you know, they're, they're just
14:26going to sit that in the bond market kind of agrees with them in that context.
14:30Okay. This, we're recording this on Friday. Of course, we know lots of things can happen over the
14:34weekend, even today, but you know, assuming someone's listening to this on Monday morning,
14:39what are you looking at this week? Well, basically we want to see how the bond market
14:44reacts to retail sales, anything over the weekend where we are right now is basically as priced in a
14:50quarter, right? So it's, it doesn't look abnormal to me at all, but if we're going to get into this
14:56inflation versus labor over inflation debate, the labor data better stay softer because it doesn't,
15:03then, you know, the federal reserve is going, Hey, listen, it's not breaking, you know? So it
15:08gets, it gets into an interesting, whoever the next fed chairman is going to be, is going to have
15:13to kind of say, Hey, listen, we're going to get hit on the job side and tariffs are one, one hit,
15:19one time price adjustment. Everything will eventually work itself. It's good. It's going to get difficult,
15:25especially with commodity inflation, you know, food, stuff like that for them to totally ignore that.
15:30So the quarter is kind of priced in, but it just becomes, you know, the jobs data just becomes
15:38more, the jobless claims came out, you know, it, you know, shows a softening labor market with
15:43continuing claims elevated, but the initial claims is still historically long. Okay. Well,
15:48we will, I know you're on it 24 seven. Appreciate that. And thanks for doing this. We'll do it again
15:53tomorrow. Pleasure.
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