- 2 days ago
- #housingmarket
- #realestatetrends
- #experian
The U.S. housing market is shifting. Affordability pressures, changing credit dynamics, rising homeownership costs, and uneven equity growth are reshaping consumer behavior and lender strategy. In this webinar, Experian Housing data scientists and industry experts share early insights from the upcoming 2026 State of Housing Report, examining how market, credit, and property-level factors intersect—and what they mean for acquisition, servicing, portfolio health, and long-term growth.
Attendees will learn how trends in mortgage originations, affordability, home equity, consumer credit stress, and renter sentiment are influencing the future of lending. The session also highlights how modern tools - such as VantageScore 4.0, alternative data (including positive rental payments), and Cash Flow Attributes - can support more inclusive and resilient lending strategies.
#HousingMarket #RealEstateTrends #Experian
Attendees will learn how trends in mortgage originations, affordability, home equity, consumer credit stress, and renter sentiment are influencing the future of lending. The session also highlights how modern tools - such as VantageScore 4.0, alternative data (including positive rental payments), and Cash Flow Attributes - can support more inclusive and resilient lending strategies.
#HousingMarket #RealEstateTrends #Experian
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NewsTranscript
00:00:00We are about to start today's webinar, the 2026 State of Housing, Trends, Opportunities,
00:00:09and Market Momentum. Today's webinar is presented in partnership with Experian.
00:00:15I'm Alison LaForgia, Managing Editor of the Content Studio at Housing Wire, and I am so
00:00:21excited to get into some of the absolutely fantastic data that we will be going over today.
00:00:26Before we dive in, I want to give our audience a couple of quick housekeeping notes. This is meant
00:00:32to be an interactive webinar, and we want to hear from you. We will be hosting a Q&A toward the end,
00:00:38but you can submit questions for our two expert panelists, Manjeet and Upavan, at any time by using
00:00:46the Q&A icon that you'll see at the top of your screen or by sending them in the chat. I'll be
00:00:50keeping an eye on both places. Today's webinar is also being recorded. You will be able to see the
00:00:56on-demand version early next week, and the deck that we are using today will be available to the
00:01:02audience. So if there's anything that you guys want to go back over or examine deeper, you will be able
00:01:09to do so. Now, jumping into today's content, we have a lot to cover. We are talking a housing update,
00:01:19mortgage market trends, affordability pressures and challenges, the home equity landscape and
00:01:25opportunities that we see there. We're also going to talk about renter sentiment and future home
00:01:30ownership, which is a very exciting topic. And then we're going to end with talking about the benefits of
00:01:36alternative data. Now, we have some really great panelists who are going to be talking to us about all of
00:01:44this today. First, we have Manjeet Sohal, who's the VP of Product Management, and we also have Upavan Gupta, who's the
00:01:52head of analytics and data science. Now, like I mentioned, we have a lot to get into. But I want to
00:01:59start with a poll question, just to see how we're all doing today and who's joining us. And what I would
00:02:09like to know is what best describes your primary role? Are you in originations? Are you in servicing? Are you
00:02:18prospecting marketing? Or is your role something different that's not listed here?
00:02:25You will see that poll question on your screen. Let me know what your primary role is.
00:02:37While we're getting some audience responses, Manjeet Upavan, how are you both doing today?
00:02:41I am doing well. I am very excited to get some data from both of you guys today. I feel like
00:03:00the best thing we can do as housing finance professionals is be armed with data. So I'm so
00:03:07excited to get a market update and hear about opportunities in the market from you guys.
00:03:12So it looks like we have some good responses. It looks like we have a good amount of people who
00:03:18are in originations. And we have a good portion of people who are also marking as other. So to my
00:03:25audience members who are marking as who are labeling as other, drop me what you do in the chat. Let us know
00:03:33what your role is. Let us know how we can best talk about data during today's discussion for you.
00:03:40Now, with that, I want to make sure that we even have time to jump into today's actual content. And
00:03:47up first, we're going to talk about the housing ecosystem, trends, shifts, and patterns. I'm going
00:03:52to turn things over to Manjeet. Manjeet, the floor is yours.
00:03:55Manjeet Upavan Thanks, Alison.
00:03:57Manjeet Upavan We want to welcome everyone to this Housing Wire webinar. We're so excited to
00:04:05to dive into the different data and topics we have for you. Now, as we dive into the webinar,
00:04:11we want to make sure we're setting the right context. There's a lot going on here. The housing story in
00:04:182025, you know, represents a market that, you know, you can say it's normalizing, but it's in a very uneven
00:04:26manner as you kind of, you know, take the covers off. We see the inventory of houses, you know, it keeps
00:04:33going up month after month, but the supply is still quite short. It's still below pre-pandemic norms.
00:04:42And it varies by, you know, region to region. The home prices reflect the same. The home price
00:04:50appreciation has slowed down and probably to its weakest, you know, in more than a decade now.
00:05:00But that cool off, you know, it's not a, it's not, you know, uniform across the board. It's not a
00:05:07correction everywhere. In fact, the total value of US housing is at an all-time high, right? It's at 55
00:05:14trillion. And it just shows that the wealth is rotating, you know, from one region to another.
00:05:22Affordability still remains a big constraint. You know, the mortgage rates, you know, kind of eased
00:05:29off in the middle, then they went back again and they eased off again. But there's still about 6% for
00:05:36most of the year. This keeps obviously existing owners locked down and limits the supply of houses.
00:05:44So the affordability indices also are near historic lows. You know, wages are struggling to keep up with
00:05:52the overall housing costs. So that definitely remains on the top of the mind of the new borrowers.
00:05:59And with all these pressures, you know, the home equity side is what has become the release wall,
00:06:08right? That's the only side that's growing. You know, mortgage holders are entering with a record
00:06:16equity and in some cases, you know, tappable equity of 11.5 trillion, which is when they have about 20%
00:06:24cushion. So this is an area of an opportunity for, you know, our lending community. Now, the question
00:06:31is, how is this demand being served, right? Now, this is changing as well. Lenders have the opportunity
00:06:38now to look at, you know, different signals apart from just credit. There is verified rent payment data,
00:06:46there is cash flow data, there is property level attributes, you know, how you can use that to sharpen
00:06:53your differentiation and reach out to your borrowers. And of course, last but not least is, you know,
00:07:02the new scoring approaches like Vantage Score version 4.0, you know, incorporates trended data,
00:07:10it incorporates alternative data, that is becoming a norm and helping consumers without lowering the
00:07:20standards. So as you can see, there's a lot going on. And let's unpack this, right? You know, we need a
00:07:28data-driven approach here. And for that, I will turn over to my esteemed colleague and friend, Opon.
00:07:37Thanks, Manjeet. And that's, I think, in that first segment, you kind of covered the whole,
00:07:43pretty much like what's on everybody's mind as well as what's happening, right? So I think what I'll do
00:07:53is I'll step-by-step try to go into different areas and kind of what the data shows, right? And what
00:08:02lenders, services, consumers can do. I want to dissect that even further. So when we look at this first
00:08:12slide, right, it's very easy to frame the whole market currently as a frozen or stalled market,
00:08:21right? But when we look at the data across originations, equity, borrower behavior, borrower
00:08:30performance, that's not really what's happening, right? I mean, the volume is much lower, but
00:08:39what's really happening is the market is resegmented, right? So as you mentioned, the rate moderation
00:08:48did unlock some demand, but it did not come back evenly either, right? As we see here, the first
00:08:56mortgages did remain selective while the HELOC and second liens continued to grow. So what it tells us is
00:09:09the need hasn't disappeared from consumers' perspective, but they are adapted to a new,
00:09:15to this locked-in environment and to their needs in that sense, right? Further looking at the mortgage
00:09:24originations, what we see here is conventional loans still make up a vast majority, but they are the most
00:09:32affordability sensitive segment. And I think everybody is going to hear this word of 2025,
00:09:40but at least in the housing ecosystem affordability all through our webinar, but also throughout 2026,
00:09:49right? So we are going to dig deeper into what's causing this affordability and sensitivity around it.
00:09:57And again, as a result, what consumers are doing is they are shopping more,
00:10:04they are taking longer to decide, and they are also getting heavily impacted by non-mortgage costs,
00:10:12non-interest and principal costs, right? As we see, FHA continues to grow, especially for the first time
00:10:22homeowners. And VA is actually, has been a stronger growth segment because relatively it's less
00:10:37impacted by the borrower, because of the borrower profiles and other factors. So by and large,
00:10:46the big takeaway is it's not a volume driven market. It's more of a precision driven market now, right?
00:10:57Opportunity is not just waiting for rates to drop more. It is about understanding who is viable,
00:11:06when they are ready, and what type of product fits well for them. And that's where, as you mentioned,
00:11:13right, there are a lot of alternative signals, and bringing them into the analytics, into the
00:11:22predictive modeling, and a more holistic view of consumers is going to start to matter, right?
00:11:30So if we go to the next slide, I want to go in on a section that is a big challenge for lenders
00:11:39today. I think one of the biggest inefficiencies in today's market is actually the conversion, right?
00:11:46What we see here is only 34% of first mortgage hard inquiries actually convert into an origination. So
00:11:55two out of three consumers, they raise their hand, but they never end up closing a loan, right?
00:12:03And it's not only matters from a volume perspective, but also matters from a cost and experience
00:12:11perspective. So for lenders, every inquiry has a cost associated to it. And any inquiry that doesn't
00:12:20convert is a sum cost. From a consumer side, it's the experience, which is,
00:12:27is I went into the process, but I came out without actually buying anything, right? And
00:12:37when we want to understand why that happens, one of the biggest gap that consumers tell us, even in this
00:12:45kind of information overload with LLMs and Gen AI, it's simply understanding, it's a gap in understanding
00:12:55what they qualify for. So it's, it's not really the lack of interest, but it's more lack of clarity and
00:13:02confidence from their, from consumer side. So, so this, this is a, this is obviously a very sensitive
00:13:14topic for our, for our lenders. So if, if I'm a lender, you know, how do you, how do I give my
00:13:21borrowers enough clarity, you know, uh, basically early in the process, because I don't want to incur
00:13:29all the downstream costs, you know, on, on leads that may, may never convert. Uh, so help us with that.
00:13:39Yeah, no, that's a great question. And that's a question that, uh, in, as the survey also showed,
00:13:46like there are a lot of lenders originators in our audience, I think everybody's struggling with,
00:13:51right, is how do I reduce my costs, um, while capturing the high intent consumers. So lenders
00:14:02are already starting to think about an approach that is, that ties the amount of data that is needed
00:14:14to the amount of intent, right? And what they are doing, there are, there are now new mechanisms,
00:14:21one being, uh, Power Profile Plus, where a lender can start with a one bureau pull, one bureau credit file
00:14:32at the beginning of the process. And as a consumer goes further down in the pipeline and the readiness and
00:14:41intent becomes more clear, they can actually convert that into a tribure report, right? And what that does
00:14:51is it helps them reduce the cost of the fallen off leads while still preserving the quality of the decision
00:15:00where it matters, right? So the market is already starting to, um, kind of incorporate into their
00:15:11processes because it improves their pull through rate. It improves the borrower's experience. They get a
00:15:18much better understanding early in the process of how much and are they able to qualify and close the loan,
00:15:28right? So it reduces the spend. Um, but again, I think, I think that's, that's only part of the thing,
00:15:37the issue, right? The, the bigger question that's on everyone's mind right now is again, affordability,
00:15:44which is putting a tremendous amount of pressure on, um, ability to buy, become a homeowner as well as existing
00:15:54homeowners. So if we dive into that, um, uh, on the next slide. So we, we did some surveys and, uh, what we found
00:16:05is that most consumers and it's not rocket science. I think that's on everybody's mind. The two things
00:16:14that everybody has, um, the most, they see as the biggest challenge is high home price and down payment
00:16:22constraints, right? Um, that down payment constraint is, is, is more nuanced because what's happening
00:16:32underneath that is, is very critical from inflationary pressures to job insecurities to the overall
00:16:44market volatility. I think a lot of consumers, they are feeling under pressure, even if they are capable of
00:16:54buying a home, right? And for that, for lenders, what that means is affordability cannot be defined by
00:17:05a static ratio anymore. Like your DTI doesn't really equate to affordability anymore. What does matter is
00:17:17what is a consumer's cashflow resilience, right? What is their expense volatility?
00:17:24And if you look at the credit world, what is their trended payment behavior and trended performance?
00:17:33So all of that matters a lot more. And to your earlier point, Manjit, it's, it all comes back to
00:17:43leveraging more data and more analytics and more predictive models built using those all combined.
00:17:53to really understand not just who can buy, but also who will buy, right? So, um, that's,
00:18:04that's really what's kind of moving, going to move the housing ecosystem forward, a lot more deeper
00:18:17understanding of consumer intent and consumer capability and their kind of the cash flow resilience
00:18:26being the key here in that sense. So I know, I think, I think this rate and price is one of the big factors,
00:18:38but there are a lot more things to affordability. And again, I'm sorry if I'm using affordability too
00:18:46much, but that's like, I think that's the word that defined 25.
00:18:51Um, and, and it's coming from different angles, right? It's, uh, it's not just interest rates,
00:18:57it's not just home prices, it's across the board, uh, on the housing ecosystem. So,
00:19:03um, one of the most underestimated areas that we see is, is actually HOA. The HOA fees is growing like
00:19:17anything. Um, it has become such a meaningful part of your overall monthly, um, payments,
00:19:29right? Outside of principle and interest, that it's, it's, it's, it cannot be ignored as a, like,
00:19:38I'll manage it. I'll close the home and then I'll see, right? People are looking at it more actively.
00:19:45And if you look at, and that's very much defined by where you are and what type of home it is, right?
00:19:57Um, so if you look at the state level, we see that the Northeast states like New York,
00:20:05Massachusetts, Vermont, Maine, they are among the highest in, um, in your HOA fees.
00:20:15And it's not a marginal cost. It's, it, it's a big impact on cash flow itself. Um,
00:20:24similarly, when we look at the home types, um, of course, condos have the highest,
00:20:32uh, fees, HOA fees, followed by townhomes, and then by single family homes. And again,
00:20:43even within the single family homes, there is, there is a, there is a segmentation in there,
00:20:50right? There are homes that are pre 2004, 2005, where the HOA fees used to be more reasonable.
00:21:00Say some had like a hundred dollars a year. If there is a lot of facilities, it used to be like
00:21:09$75 a month of some, and some, something along those lines. That's through the roof now.
00:21:15Um, like, I'll give you an example, like New York, for the condos, the HOA fees can go up to $900 a
00:21:25month. And even the, um, the single family homes carry a meaningful HOA fees.
00:21:32Uh, whereas in California, it's a townhomes. They have the highest HOA fees in the country. Um,
00:21:42so, so for lenders, what does that mean, right? Um, what it means is basically they can't just
00:21:52convince a consumer to buy a property purely from a home price, interest rate,
00:22:01loan amount, monthly payment perspective, because on one end, although consumers are less aware of
00:22:10what they can afford, but on the other end, they are, they have so much knowledge and information at
00:22:16their, um, uh, at their fingertips that they understand what is their full cost of ownership
00:22:25going to look like. And that includes HOA. Uh, so things like property data, right, property attributes,
00:22:35what is the, um, median HOA fee in a particular region, particular neighborhood, or, um, uh, county,
00:22:44or things like that, that all help lenders to create their strategies that are more regional,
00:22:53um, accordingly. Right. And, and also what's the risk, right? Downstream risk in terms of, uh,
00:23:00default rates and whatnot. So, um, that, that actually brings me to a question, Manjeet.
00:23:09And I'm, I'm talking a lot about affordability for home buyers and homeowners. Um,
00:23:15for the rental side, are you seeing a similar affordability dynamic play out? I know there
00:23:26were, uh, during COVID time, there was a lot of increase in the rent amounts and all that,
00:23:33but then like, how is it, how's it moving in the current, in the last couple of years? And
00:23:41what's, what's changing from a property manager's perspective from risk and screening and things of
00:23:48that nature? Yeah. Great, great question of one. Yeah. So, um, you know, even though the, the rents have,
00:23:56uh, you know, kind of steadied down, uh, they've come from the previous highs, uh, you know,
00:24:03affordability is something that, you know, basically permeates the rental world, uh, you know, in the
00:24:08same way. I mean, there is a, uh, similar metric on, uh, rent to income ratios, you know, that's where,
00:24:15you know, 30% is the kind of the optimal, uh, where you want your, your renters to be. We're,
00:24:21we're hovering at around 46, 47. And in some regions it's, you know, even it's, it's higher than
00:24:27that. Uh, so affordability continues to be a, be a huge problem for the property managers and
00:24:35landlords. And, you know, they're, they're doing some of the things which I think the mortgage,
00:24:42mortgage world has, uh, started moving towards, uh, is, you know, paying more attention to,
00:24:48you know, additional verification, especially on income side, uh, cash flow data, uh, rent payment
00:24:55data, uh, Experian, uh, rent bureau provides, uh, you know, verified, uh, rent payment history.
00:25:02That's, uh, that's another source of, um, um, uh, you know, gauging the, uh, the renters capability,
00:25:09uh, to, to pay their, uh, the rent on time. So it's not just a credit only, uh, gauge, uh,
00:25:17the, the, the runway has, has, uh, uh, you know, broadened, uh, to many other, uh, and, uh,
00:25:23yeah, affordability is, is a, is a big concern, uh, on the renter side as well.
00:25:30So are they, uh, Manjit, are they, uh, starting, are the, uh, tenant screeners starting to leverage
00:25:37cash flow more, um, actively or do they have it on their pipeline, uh, in that sense?
00:25:45Yeah. Yeah. Cash flow is definitely, it's, it's, it's, it's early in the early stages, uh,
00:25:51rent payment histories is, is a lot more because that's the place where they are collecting
00:25:56ad source. So all the landlords and property managers relate to that. Like if you pay your
00:26:01rents on time, the more likelihood you'll be doing that in your next rental, uh, you know,
00:26:07unit that you go after. So I think that is a progression here. Uh, cash flow will take some,
00:26:13some time, but it's already, you know, moved beyond. And of course it's a vantage for is, is, uh, is much,
00:26:20uh, broadly adopted. You know, it's a trend of data. It provides alternative, uh, data as well.
00:26:27So that helps, uh, uh, as well as you move to some of the, uh, more modern scores, which is where,
00:26:33you know, the, the mortgage industry is headed towards as well.
00:26:37Yeah, no. And that's, that's a great point because, uh, I think, uh, like we did some research
00:26:44recently and what we noticed is I think the risk stratification with the newer scores compared to
00:26:50older scores is so much better. Right. Um, and, and that helps, uh, in, in kind of getting a real
00:27:00understanding of, uh, of the consumer itself and, and to your other point around payment history,
00:27:07right? What we had, we found is that itself is a big predictor for the readiness for a renter to
00:27:17become a homeowner. Uh, what we found is like almost consumers who didn't have any, um, rental default
00:27:27or, uh, late payments either. Um, they were two to 2.3 times more ready to become a homeowner compared to
00:27:42the ones who actually, um, uh, who, who had issues as, as a renter in terms of keeping up with their
00:27:52payments. So that itself is like to, to the point that we were discussing in terms of like alternative
00:27:59data, additional data, additional signals. I think some of these signals are, uh, quite key.
00:28:06So yeah. Uh, and all right. Um, I'm sorry for the sidetrack. Um, but let's, let's move to the next
00:28:17piece of this affordability. And I'm sure a lot of people can relate to it is, is HOA is one part of
00:28:27it, but the other aspect, especially with a lot of hazards, disasters and, uh, in the recent years and
00:28:38increase in the, uh, in the home insurance amount. Um, that's, that's another aspect that's dictating
00:28:49affordability. So when we look at these graphs on the left-hand side, what we see is non-digital
00:28:57tax escrow. Right. And, and that's like the change between 2021 to 2025 itself. And what we see is
00:29:08even though like the taxes also increased because the home prices increased and whatnot,
00:29:13these non-tax escrow amounts, especially the interest being the largest part of it,
00:29:20it rose dramatically. Um, in some cases it has just in four years, it has gone up by 60%. Uh, states like
00:29:30Florida, insurance is becoming a primary driver of home expenses and consequently the affordability to
00:29:40purchase at all. Right. Um, on the other end, we see California and Illinois being a couple of examples
00:29:50where just as a, as a function of high home prices and values, um, the taxes are very high. Right. Uh,
00:30:02California actually got twice on that in the sense the, the wildfires have caused an increase in the home
00:30:11insurance also. So, um, if you look at the combination of all of these factors, what we, what we understand
00:30:20is that affordability pressure is not purely because of interest rate or home prices, one factor or the other.
00:30:30It's a layered and it's a combined effect, right? HOA, taxes, insurance, home prices, interest rates,
00:30:39everything impacts, um, the affordability. So you can't really assess it in isolation. Um, and, and that's where,
00:30:52um, consumers are having, uh, a liquidity issue. Right. Um, but at the same time,
00:30:59at the same time, they are not able to sell their homes, uh, because number one, the next one that they buy
00:31:07is going to be at a much higher rate, but at the same time, they have liquidity needs. So that's where
00:31:14they are moving towards these other, um, uh, products, right? And hence that resegmenting of the market,
00:31:26um, which, which we'll talk about in the next, um, uh, slides. But before that, let's, uh, let's do another poll question.
00:31:36Okay. Alison, you want to pull it up? Yeah. Yes. So our next poll question is what is your biggest
00:31:46challenge in capturing home equity lending opportunities? So you will see a poll question
00:31:54on your screen, send us what your thoughts are, whether it's a identifying eligible borrowers,
00:32:03the speed of execution, B C borrower awareness, or D determining the right offer, right time, right
00:32:11channel. Let us know what your biggest challenge is. All right. Now it's very similar.
00:32:24Similar to our first poll question. We are seeing a lot of responses saying,
00:32:30identifying eligible borrowers and followed, actually we're at, we're dead even at, uh,
00:32:39uh, Oh, that just changed. We are now moving away from that being the first, uh, with largest problem.
00:32:46And we are now seeing a lot of responses going towards determining the right offer, right time,
00:32:53right channel at 40% of responses. So with that, I'm going to pass things over to Manjeet to talk about
00:33:03home equity. I, I think it's an open rule. We'll talk about that. Yeah, let me, let me take that. But,
00:33:10um, uh, I, I think, I think the responses to the, um, the survey questions were like, I was earlier when you
00:33:20said, uh, there were a lot more responses on eligible borrowers. I was, I was curious because in my mind,
00:33:28I always thought like D is the one where just being more precise is the key challenge that we have
00:33:39been, we've been seeing in the market, right. From our clients, from, um, uh, just, just, uh, the whole
00:33:48ecosystem itself. Um, because, um, in, in terms of identifying the eligible borrowers, I think that
00:33:58that over the time is, is, is relatively nailed down by the market in the sense that different
00:34:11lenders with the different, uh, um, risk profiles, they have a relatively good understanding of
00:34:20the eligibility aspect or at least the, the broad eligibility aspect of it. But I think where we have
00:34:31seen the most struggle, um, and it's going to continue to be right, especially in a very competitive
00:34:38market with limited volume is always going to be, what's the right offer? What's the right time? And
00:34:46what's the channel that consumer, um, wants to leverage? And that's where a lot of these
00:34:53alternative signals, right. Um, are becoming more and more meaningful. Yeah. And that's where we,
00:35:02and that's where we ended up seeing the bulk of poll responses. So they were even, they were neck and
00:35:06neck for a while, but we did. Yeah. You know, no, that's, that's, uh, um, that's the,
00:35:17that's what my expectation was personally as well. So, uh, it's good to, good to see that, uh,
00:35:24it kind of, it's, it's, it validates that way. Um, and, and one thing we are noticing, especially with,
00:35:32uh, our, um, uh, Home Buyer Protection Act and, uh, some, some of the, uh, regulatory changes,
00:35:42uh, policy changes is it, it's becoming ever more, um, difficult and necessary to identify these
00:35:54alternative, um, signals that can give them higher, give lenders a higher, um, uh, conversion rate,
00:36:06right. Um, and everything plays into it, shopping habits, um, um, uh, they're, uh,
00:36:15the type of, uh, channels that consumers are most, uh, comfortable and, uh, comfortable with,
00:36:23uh, whether it's SMS, whether it's mailers, whether it's email and whatnot. So, and, and that's where I
00:36:31think this particular market of home equity is, is doing a lot of innovation as well, right? Um, let me,
00:36:43let me give an overview of what this market size looks like, right? And if we, if we look at this,
00:36:53table, you see, there are 96.2 million homeowners who are, um, um, in homes that are owner occupied
00:37:04and about 60%, uh, 62% of those, they have either they, their homes are free and clear or they have
00:37:16more than 20% equity in their home and, uh, they only have a primary mortgage.
00:37:23And this is a big market for
00:37:29to, to go for home equity type products, right? Uh, because
00:37:35as we said, there is still need for liquidity and consumers are slowly moving towards, uh, identifying
00:37:44the ways that they can tap into that liquidity. Uh, so it's, um, if you look further down about 1.9 million
00:37:57consumers, they have their, uh, balances going up and they could do some, they could take some help from
00:38:08doing some sort of debt consolidation and, uh, uh, uh, take, take the right product home equity
00:38:17line of credit or the second mortgage to pay down some debt. And then there is a huge market where
00:38:25consumers, because they are staying in their homes for longer now they need to, they can, they can take
00:38:34out the equity to do some home renovations. And a lot of these 18.7 million, about 60%, they are long-tenure
00:38:47owners and about 30, 40% are mid-tenure, right? I mean, uh, mid-tenure, um, owners. So they can use it in a,
00:38:58in meaningful ways to access that equity. Um, so, but again, I think identifying who's ready for what
00:39:07product, that's an imprecision driven. And, uh, uh, uh, that's, that's where the borrowers, uh, tagging the
00:39:16right borrower at the right moment, um, is, is key. So using all of these signals or, uh, metrics like
00:39:26utilization behavior, like cashflow signals, like, uh, tenure, they all drive, um, growth by keeping
00:39:37the costs under control. So that's, I mean, the, the key is that equity is abundant, but it's only
00:39:48valuable if, if, uh, if, uh, if you go and get the borrower with the, with the right, uh, who has the
00:39:58right intent and give them the right product. Uh, the other aspect of equity is also
00:40:08it's not as useful until it is leveraged, right? So it's not the balance, but, or what's the amount
00:40:17of line that I have that's more meaningful than am I really using it, right? So, and that behavior shifts
00:40:31between, um, both in terms of the length of time, the home equity, uh, product has been, um, borrowed and
00:40:43also the generation. So what we see is, uh, younger borrowers, they tend to utilize more of their
00:40:52available HELOC capacity while the older borrowers, they are more conservative. They just keep it as a back
00:40:58pocket, uh, uh, tool, uh, just in the worst case scenario. So, um, um, engagement should depend on
00:41:09the, the type of borrower as well. Um, what, what it really reinforces is, is marketing based on tenure and
00:41:24behavior and segmentation based on that. Uh, they are, they are utilization is also a powerful predictor
00:41:33for, uh, future actions and, uh, uh, and, and, and long-term kind of engagement with the consumer.
00:41:45So that's, that's where the equity plays. Um, um, I'll now go to Manjeet, um, because I want to get a
00:41:53view of, like, this is, these are the challenges that we see on the home ownership, mortgage market,
00:42:00and whatnot. Um, I want to understand a little bit deeper into what's happening in the rental world.
00:42:08Yeah. Thanks. Thanks. Yeah. Thanks for one. Um, that was fascinating. Um, so good news. I think on
00:42:17renter, uh, side, we did, uh, uh, few more surveys, uh, you know, conducted through, uh, through Experian
00:42:24and their partners and, uh, the renter optimism is, is quite real. Um, so half of the renters are saying
00:42:31that they are, they are expecting to be a buyer, uh, of, uh, of a home within four years and that
00:42:40confidence is, uh, you know, building over time and roughly two thirds are expecting in the next
00:42:46eight year, uh, window. Uh, that just tells us that demand isn't going away. It's just getting deferred.
00:42:53And, and as long as the lenders have a clear data-driven path, I think there's a good, uh,
00:42:59good shot of moving, uh, uh, the renters, uh, to, uh, homeowners. Now, what holds back, uh, many of
00:43:08these renters is just not great, right? There are supply side issues. Obviously, uh, there is lack of
00:43:13transparency on the overall cost earlier in the process, like, uh, Upone talked about. And of course,
00:43:20it gets compounded when consumer is, you know, has a thin file, has short credit history, and, uh, you
00:43:27know, they have uncertainty about their down payment readiness. So Experian has a, has a unique
00:43:34opportunity here, you know, with, uh, uh, resources such as Experian Rent Bureau. You know, we are able
00:43:39to incorporate verified payment histories directly into the credit file and, uh, you know, follow the
00:43:45consumer, uh, their journey as they progress from renter to their first, first time home buyer. Now,
00:43:53uh, there is, there is friction obviously on this path, right? So the rates, we talked about how they
00:43:58are moderated, uh, but still, uh, sitting, uh, above, uh, 6%, you know, which keeps monthly payments,
00:44:07um, you know, high and elevated for new buyers. And, uh, you know, again, for existing homeowners,
00:44:14um, you know, it discourages because, you know, there, nobody wants to give up their,
00:44:18you know, three, four or 5%, um, mortgage or something, uh, much higher. Uh, so that lock-in effect,
00:44:27um, you know, it's constraining the resale supply, you know, and this is at a time when
00:44:34the first time home buyers, uh, probably needed, uh, needed the most. Now, if you add all the,
00:44:42the true cost that we saw in the earlier slides, you know, taxes, insurance, and HOA,
00:44:47and, you know, you end up getting longer decision cycles and, you know, a tighter set of,
00:44:52you know, pricing, uh, pricing bands that, you know, the shoppers or the borrowers have a,
00:44:59have a tough time, uh, you know, uh, affording it. Uh, these are things that, uh, you know,
00:45:05home buyers, uh, 10, 15 years back never really considered, um, but now taxes, insurance, and HOA are
00:45:12a big proportion of your, uh, monthly cost. All right. So with that, we'll move on to our last poll
00:45:21of the, of this webinar. Over to you, Alison. Our next poll question is asking our audience,
00:45:28how are you currently using alternative data in mortgage decisioning or marketing? So let us know
00:45:35know if you are actively, and if it's actively integrated, if you're piloting or testing
00:45:41alternative data, or if you're exploring your options, or alternatively D, if you're not currently
00:45:47using alternative data. So let us know what your responses are. Interesting. We see right now exploring
00:46:00options being one of the options and we see a lot of people who are not currently using alternative
00:46:09data. I'll give us about 30 more seconds before we jump in to closing the poll and going to our next
00:46:20and last section of today's webinar. All right. So we've seen, we see some actively integrating,
00:46:28actively integrated, and piloting or testing are tied. And then the third most popular option is
00:46:35exploring options, about 35% of responses. And then over 50% of responses have not currently using.
00:46:46So with that, I'm going to turn things over to Manjeet to talk more about alternative data. So Manjeet,
00:46:56the floor is yours. Thanks. Thanks, Alison. Yeah, that's, that's, I wouldn't say again,
00:47:01that's surprising. It is a mixed bag right now. So there looks like there is a good proportion of
00:47:08folks who are trying alternative data. And then there's a still a big, you know, set of the population
00:47:16that, you know, hasn't, hasn't really played with this. And, you know, probably we need to be convinced
00:47:22of the benefits. So I think this is, this is a, this is a key slide, you know, the solution,
00:47:30you know, for this is to meet where the demand is. Obviously, we can't really change. We're dealing
00:47:36with the cards that we have been dealt with. And, you know, one of the key things is we can remove
00:47:42uncertainty earlier in the process, and that'll definitely help, help here. So make qualification
00:47:49transparent, right, basically show all this realistic, you know, payment, payment bands up
00:47:55front based on the total cost, and make sure we're including even property level data, you know,
00:48:03you know, depending on where the properties reside, you know, whether it's a flood zone, you know,
00:48:08where insurance might have a disparate impact, include all those up front. Secondly, widen the runway,
00:48:16right. You have to use broader data. So you going beyond credit, you know, looking at rental payment
00:48:25history, pairing that with cash flow insights, you know, this, this will help during the pre-qualification
00:48:34stage. And you're actually managing the terms based on, you know, how the, how the first time
00:48:42home buyers are, are managing costs currently in their, in their, you know, most, most likely in
00:48:50their renting households. There are employment shifts happening too, right? Everybody, you know,
00:48:55I mean, a lot, a lot of folks have two jobs, there's gig economy, you can't use the same, same tools
00:49:03that used to work a few years back, right? So broadening the data, uh, the data scale here can
00:49:11help, uh, help reach out to more consumers. And, uh, thirdly and, and lastly is giving households
00:49:20alternatives, uh, to moving into a first, uh, first rate lean, right? That's, that may not be the,
00:49:26the, the best thing to do right now. Uh, equity products, you know, like, you know, doing HELOC or,
00:49:33or second liens, you know, for renovation financing or debt consolidation and, and let the owners, uh,
00:49:40you know, kind of right size using that. So these are, these are kind of the, uh, the different ways,
00:49:47uh, lenders can modify and, and reach out to more consumers and offer more compelling, uh, uh,
00:49:55compelling options here. And experience research has indicated there's a 35%, uh, lift, um, as you,
00:50:03uh, in, you know, you, you increase in model accuracy and, you know, risk differentiation by just
00:50:09including, uh, cashflow insights in addition to the credit, uh, credit data. So that's, uh, that's really,
00:50:17uh, really powerful there. All right. So we're, we're basically at the final stretch. This is the,
00:50:22uh, the last slide before we kind of jump into the Q and a, and just wanted to summarize our key
00:50:28takeaways. Uh, so we, we, we looked at a lot of things. I just wanted to converge and bring this
00:50:33all together. So the first one is enhancing performance with precision, right? So this is
00:50:39where, you know, lenders have the opportunity to bring alternative and property level data into the
00:50:44same decision, you know, using those inputs to price accurately, set realistic payment brands up front
00:50:53and cut those, you know, late stage surprises for the borrowers. You know, the result is obviously,
00:50:58you'll have a better pull through at origination and, you know, reducing your losses, uh, downstream,
00:51:05especially in the high rate, uh, uh, in this market. Uh, second, uh, is capital capitalizing
00:51:14on the home equity demand. You know, even though the lock-in limits the mobility that we've seen,
00:51:21the equity is, uh, has grown and is abundant, right? So the, the challenge is now, how do you
00:51:27meet the liquidity needs with, uh, personalized HELOCs, uh, second lien options. And when I say
00:51:34personalized, you know, at these have to be tailored by, you know, the tenure and the use cases.
00:51:40Um, so, you know, there is an opportunity for the lenders to do that. And in this process,
00:51:46they will, uh, build durable relationships, right? As you work with your borrowers, um,
00:51:53you know, this is the stepping stone when future purchases happen, uh, when, you know, rates, uh,
00:52:00normalize, uh, further. And lastly, uh, the expanding the access to the credit, right? Use, uh, broader data
00:52:10to responsibly reach, uh, more buyers, right? Uh, there's verified rent, there's bank, uh, cash flow data,
00:52:18uh, Experian Rent Bureau provides a great opportunity to, to look at the on-time rental payment history.
00:52:26Um, so this way you can, uh, you can lift the borrowers out of the, uh, the low credit or thin file,
00:52:34uh, credit scenarios and, you know, increase your, your borrower, uh, uh, base. And then when you pair
00:52:42this rent data with, uh, payment guidance, down payment, uh, you know, uh, education, uh, you know,
00:52:51it helps convert the, those intents, uh, into, uh, funded loans, uh, without really loosening your
00:52:58standards. So you're not introducing any more risk, uh, in this process.
00:53:05So with that, I'll pass it back to you, Alison, and see what, uh, what, uh, questions we have.
00:53:11Absolutely. And we're going to jump into questions in a moment.
00:53:15Audience, I see that there are many questions in the chat and the Q and A. We'll get through as
00:53:20many possible time permitting and I will, the housing wire team will also be passing over
00:53:26the full chat and all of the questions to the Experian team. So rest assured,
00:53:30we will make sure that you guys get answers. I want to point out some resources that are on this page.
00:53:35There is the 2026 housing report. There is the blogs page, which I think is absolutely fantastic.
00:53:42There are some really fantastic resources there. You can also follow Experian on LinkedIn.
00:53:47These resources are not just on your screen. They're also linked in the resources tab
00:53:52on your console. If you're looking on your desktop, so they will be there as well. We'll also be putting
00:53:58them on the on-demand page, which is the same page that you registered on. Now with that, the first
00:54:04question I'm going to toss over to our panelists is how can lenders use data to move from reactive to
00:54:12proactive decisioning? I think to move from reactive to proactive, I think the first thing the lenders
00:54:22can do is bring all the consumer signals together. It's not just looking at a credit profile snapshot, but
00:54:34also looking at their rent history, which has been verified, looking at their cash flow transactions,
00:54:44their employment stability, and pair those along with property level attributes, obviously looking at the
00:54:52total cost of ownership here with the taxes, insurance, HOA, and then use that for pricing early
00:55:00in the process, and then avoiding all surprises which happen during origination, and use this segmentation to
00:55:15do the right kind of offers. Then I feel that that will improve and make them more proactive and start
00:55:26targeting the right borrowers here. I don't know, is there anything else that you want to add to this?
00:55:34No, 100 percent, Manjeet. I think that whole set of other data points and data signals, right,
00:55:46kind of bringing them together in a predictive approach and defining the campaign, designing the campaign with
00:55:55some of those predictive models, it's always going to be much more meaningful. And being an Experian,
00:56:07we understand that, okay, there are certain segments of data that are more regulated, there are some
00:56:13segments of data that are less regulated and cannot be used for the decisioning in itself, but what they could
00:56:23help the lenders is, they could help them prioritize their outreach, right? They can use it either on the top of the funnel or the bottom of the funnel to go after the highest ROI or highest, like, consumers who can, who have a high,
00:56:44they can predict a higher conversion rate for those, right? So I think, of course, data is data and the right way of leveraging that data in your process is always going to be key.
00:57:03So I want to spend time just because I know that there's a large amount of lenders who are on the call with us talking about something that we mentioned earlier, which is the early pre-qualification, how does that actually impact borrower engagement and specifically pull through?
00:57:25Yeah, no, that's a good question. I can start with that. I think the tools like Power Profile Plus that we have, right? So what it does is during the early stage of the application,
00:57:42instead of just doing a pre-qual inquiry, it actually pulls a single bureau file and gives a much more in-depth
00:57:53understanding of consumer credit, but at a lower cost than the full credit report, the three bureau credit report, right? So early on, what it tells lenders is how, what is the borrower's actual affordability for this particular loan product going to be, right?
00:58:18Are they going to qualify, right? Are they going to qualify? All things considered. And then once they are in a later stage of underwriting, that's when that converts into a 3B
00:58:32poll, credit poll, and overall that reduces their cost, looking at the overall volume,
00:58:47because then they have fewer fall-offs after the third or three-year report is pulled.
00:58:56So that basically helps them.
00:58:59And then the borrower, it helps because the borrower knows early enough that, okay, this
00:59:04is what I'm going to qualify for, this is what I can afford, and that experience becomes
00:59:11much more smoother for them.
00:59:15And unfortunately, I think we are, webinar time goes by fast.
00:59:19We are at the top of the hour, so I don't think we have time for any more questions.
00:59:22I do see all of the audience questions in the chat.
00:59:26I also see questions that are in the Q&A.
00:59:29As I mentioned, rest assured, we will pass them over to the Experian team as soon as we
00:59:33wrap up today so that we can get you guys those answers.
00:59:37All of the resources mentioned will be shared on the HousingWire page.
00:59:40They're also, again, in the Resources tab at the top of your screen.
00:59:44But that brings us to the end of today's webinar, the 2026 State of Housing, the Trends, Opportunities,
00:59:50and Market Momentum.
00:59:52I want to say thank you to Manjit and Upavan for going through what it was an extensive
00:59:57amount of data in a relatively short amount of time and for sharing their expertise on
01:00:02how to also utilize it and interpret those trends.
01:00:05The best thing we can do as professionals in the industry is be prepared and understand
01:00:08what's going on in the actual market and what our opportunities are.
01:00:12HousingWire will be sending a recording of today's session to all registrants.
01:00:17If there are people that you want to see this discussion, send them additional resources.
01:00:22You can direct them to the webinar page.
01:00:24We will send out the webinar to everybody who's registered for it so you can watch it again.
01:00:29You can go through any highlights and understand the data that we went through today.
01:00:33Thank you again for being with us today.
01:00:36We look forward to seeing you all at a future HousingWire event.
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