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On today’s episode, Editor in Chief Sarah Wheeler talks with Mike Simonsen, chief economist at Compass, about the housing markets that might see the most traction this spring.
Related to this episode:
Housing Economic Summit 2026
https://events.housingwire.com/housing-economic-summit-2026/home
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To learn more about Trust & Will visit trustandwill.com
The HousingWire Daily podcast brings the full picture of the most compelling stories in the housing market reported across HousingWire. Each morning, listen to editor in chief Sarah Wheeler talk to leading industry voices and get a deeper look behind the scenes of the top mortgage and real estate.
Related to this episode:
Housing Economic Summit 2026
https://events.housingwire.com/housing-economic-summit-2026/home
HousingWire | YouTube
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCXDD_3y3LvU60vac7eki-6Q
More info about HousingWire
https://lnk.bio/housingwire
To learn more about Trust & Will visit trustandwill.com
The HousingWire Daily podcast brings the full picture of the most compelling stories in the housing market reported across HousingWire. Each morning, listen to editor in chief Sarah Wheeler talk to leading industry voices and get a deeper look behind the scenes of the top mortgage and real estate.
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00:00welcome everyone my guest today is mike simonson chief economist at compass to talk about the
00:14housing markets that might see the most traction this spring mike will be one of our featured
00:18speakers at the housing economic summit on february 10th and we are looking so forward
00:23to that before we dive in i want to thank our sponsor trust and will for making this episode
00:28possible mike welcome back to the podcast sarah it's always great to be here it is great to have
00:35you here and we have such a fun thing to talk about so you know as we're heading into the spring
00:39home buying market it's fun to see some stabilization some things happening and i would
00:45love to get your view on like what is the overall picture there so you know in the overall market
00:52the data right now is showing sales growth about five percent more sales happening each week than
01:00last year at this time inventory i know as you discussed with logan has been the growth rate
01:08is compressing and one thing you may not have known is that in a place in places like florida
01:14inventory is actually negative compared to last year fewer homes on the market in florida now than last
01:20year at this time so um that's not true across the country yet florida's leading there but it's a
01:25fascinating trend it's the first time in a long time to be able to say that about about florida and so
01:32sales are up um inventory is the growth rate of inventory is is contracting a little bit um you know
01:39the big the big i think number that i've been watching in the the trend for the spring market that i'm
01:45interested in is the realists so we you know last summer and fall there were a lot of withdrawals and
01:56delistings and that phenomenon was something we were tracking last year so these were sellers who were
02:01frustrated and waiting for conditions to improve so they pulled houses off the market and now we're counting
02:07them relisting back on the market and you know it's it it is a fascinating phenomenon so there are
02:1680 000 single family homes right now that are on the market now that have been relisted from last fall
02:24so they were on the market they were pulled and now they're back on so these are all sellers who
02:29were waiting for uh better conditions and then and and i think you know what's interesting is that i think
02:37rates are down sales are ticking up like those conditions may be here now so you know in the
02:43in alto status some of uh we always look at price cut percentage right and normal market is about one
02:50third of of homes have to take a price cut before they sell because sellers you know they want to get
02:55as much money as possible so how do you can how do you look at this and say what are you going to look
03:01at as a success for these relistings is it that they will sell without having to go under a price cut
03:07or or what are you looking at so the thing that i'm watching is that if the realists improve and the
03:15weekly pending sales also improves that means that that these are folks who are uh finding demand for
03:23for the homes where they didn't find it last year and so we can look at the weekly pending numbers
03:30and we can also look at the for example the the price reduction percentage so you know if demand is
03:38there for the homes on the market fewer homes need to take price cuts so that number can decline a
03:43little bit and that's what we're actually seeing right now in the data is like the price cuts number it
03:48ticked down again this week there are fewer price cuts on the market now than last year at this time
03:53it's been over a year since we've been able to say that so there is slightly like these are the
03:59signals that that the buyers are it's not a huge swing right it's not like a massive flood of of
04:05buyer demand but but it's a it's a change from what we've been able to say for several years it's also a
04:11positive change because you know and i know that uh often we hear about like oh you know there's this
04:16crash coming and especially when you think about florida um you know so much of the negative
04:22uh press about florida has been like this is where we're going to see the biggest correction
04:27it's going to lead the rest of the nation you know it's going to pull everything down so to me that
04:32is that is very significant yes and you know to be fair a couple things like there are plenty of
04:38markets in especially western southwestern florida that have had pretty pretty notable drawdowns in
04:43price and it's not clear that those that that's done so i think we still have price pressures in
04:51florida and in much of the country this year and really what ends up happening is the price movements
04:58can lag the supply and demand changes by as much as a year and a year ago inventory was still climbing
05:07way up and demand was still way low and so you get you know you get a house that was was withdrawn last
05:15year and now relisted at a slightly lower price those price adjustments are still underway um and so
05:22what we have now when we're talking about you know buyer demand picking up one of the things that
05:28they're seeing is there's some bargain hunting happening in florida for the first time in many years
05:34and there are affordability improvements in much of the country in ways that there we haven't been
05:41able to say for much of the year many years so those are um like all underway and so i i don't think
05:48we're done seeing uh the the sort of bearish price headlines for the year i think uh things like the case
05:55shiller index will probably still keep adjusting lower for for several months i think you know there's
06:01there's still those in the market there's plenty of headlines of bearish price numbers there's nothing
06:08there's no big um dramatic drops in pricing but like you know we see if you look at for example um
06:17the price per square foot asking price per square foot around the country right now the median ask price
06:22per square foot is 1.6 percent below last year at this time so by that measure home prices are less
06:30than last year at this time and that's a pretty unusual thing let's talk about some of those
06:35other markets where maybe people are finding a bargain or at least a bargain relative to to where
06:40they've been right um when you and i were talking before we started recording you said san diego which
06:45i love san diego uh my daughter lived there for many years one of my favorite places uh kind of hard
06:52to believe that there's any anything there that you know uh is is relatively speaking a good deal
06:58you know it's funny a place like san diego is uh you know has had more relatively more inventory
07:06um i wouldn't necessarily call it bargain hunting yet but um what's also happening in san diego is we
07:14at compass uh released our ultra luxury report uh last week and this is where we look at homes that
07:22are 10 million dollars and up and the sales of those uh at that price point and it's a really
07:28fascinating story so and this is actually where san diego jumps in again um so at homes at the ultra
07:36luxury level the uh you know even though at the at the broad market home sales are just barely trying to
07:47climb out of the cellar sales at the at the price point of 10 million and up actually grew a lot they
07:54grew by 22 last year and a place like san diego has been part of that story san diego had almost no
08:03home sales over 10 million uh back in say 2019 and now there are you know a few dozen a year and so
08:11that is uh and let's see actually a few dozen 66 we counted in 2025 and so san diego has had a lot of
08:20growth in that kind of way over over time interesting that ultra luxury market how do you see that across
08:28the country like you said you see it going up so it's really sort of the tale of two markets in some
08:33ways it really is and we've you know i've written about and we've probably discussed you and i probably
08:38discussed the k-shaped economy uh that you know there are two two legs is that the in and this is
08:46true and not just housing but in so many things like if we have a job unemployment's very low but
08:52hiring is is low so if you don't have a job it's hard to get one so you have these two different
08:58dynamic uh two legs of the k and and so you know in in home sales you know we have you know
09:08equity financial markets at near record highs you have things like ipos and m a that are kicking
09:15in there's a lot of liquidity and cash at the ultra high level and it is going into hard assets so
09:23you know you see uh we saw a dip in the in the ultra luxury in 23 coming off the the the uh you know
09:34the the pandemic boom so 23 saw a dip but then 24 climbed and 25 continued to climb in terms of home
09:41sales and prices all the way across the board and so you know we're tracking uh 86 markets that have
09:48that have uh homes in this price range some of them only do one or two at that range and and some like
09:55manhattan have hundreds in the 10 million and up uh but it's been a fascinating uh you know journey so
10:02so san diego really didn't even have a dip in 23 like san diego has been a growth market palm beach
10:09county in southern florida has had a uh has been a growth market for this price range as well okay
10:15well coming off of those uh the that ultra luxury what else are you looking at what other areas are you
10:21seeing something maybe surprising in the data you know the biggest thing that i am paying attention
10:29to this year is that relist rate yeah and these are the homes that were on the market before and
10:35were pulled and are now relisted uh or are you know they are sellers who are thinking of relisting
10:43if the conditions are right and so this it can be very tempting to look at this relist uh this
10:53withdrawal and relist cohort purely as supply or even shadow supply like supply that wants to be there
11:02but we we aren't measuring it in inventory yet meaning these are people who tried to sell couldn't but
11:07are um are now you know will try again and so uh because there were a lot of withdrawals last year
11:15there'd be a lot of of relist this spring and um my observation is that for the most part these
11:23withdrawals uh are owner occupiers so that means they're not like investors or something that they are
11:32in general uh selling a house and buying a house they're moving up or they're moving down they're
11:39they're relocating and and they've put off these you know the the move for a bunch of years and so now
11:47when they relist that's really two transactions that want to happen and that's my um my observation
11:55with the data so what we have to do is like track it each week and is that true and and that's why i
12:00mentioned like you know as long as these relists are climbing uh is the is the weekly pending number
12:06climbing also and so that that relist number is really the one that that i'm watching most closely
12:11this year and and you know i was talking with agents uh today on a big compass uh coaching call
12:17and saying you know if i'm having a conversation with sellers this spring like these are sellers who
12:23were waiting last year for conditions to improve and in many ways they've they are like the data
12:29showing improvement it's really good you know we we always think about well it depends on on uh
12:37where you are on the side of the agreement right are you are you a uh buy side agent are you a seller's
12:42agent are you in mortgage because you know all of those are different viewpoints but from my perspective
12:48everything you've said feels like we just have more movement more traction in the market because
12:55you have people who want to sell we have a little bit lower rates right rates more around six percent
13:01we're not seeing those huge volatile up and downs we're seeing some other things stabilize so it feels
13:06like that's the kind of movement that can make for a good spring home home selling season
13:12yeah and and you know to be fair it's not like a you know a massive uh you know boom but but it is
13:21notable and it seems consistent um it it shouldn't be uh that much of a surprise you know mortgage
13:27payments if you look at like the average you know the the current mortgage rate and the median price
13:36that people are paying for homes like the prices are eight or nine percent cheaper than they were last
13:42year at this time like to you and that's a that's you got to figure that there are more people who are
13:47making that move as a result absolutely okay well let's talk about some of those uh those hot spots
13:53we always check in on because you know they're they're kind of top of mind let's talk about austin
13:58so um you know we talked already about florida and how the you know florida inventory is is
14:05is tightening in florida texas is still lagging uh that a little bit um compared to some of the
14:12other states so texas inventory is still up about 10 percent uh year over year and um and so austin is
14:20is you know the poster child of that where we've got like four years of flat prices down even prices in
14:27in austin and i haven't yet seen a turn in the market in austin um i expect that we will be able to
14:37measure home sales increases year over year uh in q1 in austin but it's it's been really close
14:44so far and so um the uh the um and it's and i'm i don't know exactly why texas is lagging florida in
14:56in this moment um but but like florida home sales is by our count is is you know 10 more
15:03more pendings each week newly pending home sales each week uh and and haven't quite seen that growth
15:09in texas yet but here's the thing on the current trajectory if that stays where uh you know we
15:19have continued to have rates stay in the low sixes we have the momentum the current trajectory that we're
15:25on i could see maybe by june texas would be in this mode of being less inventory year over year
15:35because last year inventory was was rising pretty quickly in first and second quarter when it was
15:41super expensive you know mortgages were 100 basis points or 90 basis points higher yeah it's it's a
15:47great point and when you look at texas is there a really big difference between you know we talk about
15:51the texas triangle uh between like dallas fort worth which i know that we had uh more inventory
15:56maybe than some other parts of of texas like versus houston for instance yeah you know um houston is the uh
16:06like least volatile of the of the two triangles so uh austin dallas both had a lot of um you know
16:17volatility austin had a a lot of california migration right inbound california migration and
16:23that slowed way down and that's really where you know you had higher income uh and you had you had
16:33um like that demand coming in from california and even places like new york and things where
16:41that was driving a lot of the boom in in austin where dallas has a much more broad inbound migration
16:49pattern and so um that migration has slowed also but it's it's a less dramatic effect and then i think
16:56houston probably um seems to have if we look at the latest uh immigration migration data so across the
17:03country houston has held up uh a little more uh less volatile than than austin and dallas were
17:11you know when all those californians moved to austin and was at 21 and then we had like the worst
17:18like seriously the hottest summer we had had in like 10 years 15 years and i was just like you
17:23know you just felt so bad for those people you're already coming from california which in many parts
17:28is so beautiful and the weather is so beautiful i just i felt very bad for them as as a texan i was
17:33like i'm sorry it was especially bad right then so you know if they didn't stick around they're probably
17:40like this place is is hotter than the sun you know yep well you know they uh some people are
17:48went there intentionally for that well there you go um is there a place that you're looking at that
17:53you're like wow this might be the tightest inventory you know uh across the whole nation where would you
18:00put that right now so uh connecticut has been the tightest through uh all last year um and you know
18:13chicago area is also still very tight just barely getting more uh maybe a few more a few percent more
18:22inventory than last year just barely and so um that inventory growth is welcome um and that's because
18:29you know we talked about that migration pattern you know we're not selling in chicago to buy in
18:35dallas or denver or phoenix and so inventory is tight in chicago and it is um it's still you know ample
18:44across the sunbelt so you know across the midwest and northeast that's still true inventory you know
18:50that that is still inventory still tight because we're still selling few houses there we're we're moving
18:56less and and it's not just a real estate um conversation it's a it's a jobs thing it's a
19:02hiring thing so i have if i have a good job in chicago i'm worried about being hired at a new job
19:11in dallas or phoenix or denver and so i'm not quitting my job i'm not selling my house to buy to
19:19move across the country and buy and so the number the macro number that i'm looking for this year that i'm
19:24interested in is tracking the hires rate so do we start getting uh businesses start to hire a little
19:32faster that's been really slow uh if it starts to loosen up i think that would be a bullish sign
19:39for home sales transactions especially across the sunbelt if we if it starts to feel like companies
19:46are able to hire more and maybe that's because you know fed rate cuts or you know things turn the
19:52corner if we get lucky uh that would be in addition to having cheaper mortgage rates and things that
19:59that would help uh sales numbers continue to climb later in the year but right now it's still it's
20:04still pretty um you know that that hiring number is still pretty pretty tight i think it just it just
20:11points out like the housing market is very complex there's so many things that go into this you know
20:15just the things that you've mentioned on this on this podcast i mean there's there's a lot to think
20:20about um glad we have you on as always love to uh get your insights so mike thank you so much and i uh
20:28do want to say i look forward to seeing you next week at the housing economic summit very excited for
20:33your session there and just the interplay with you and all of the other amazing uh economists that we
20:38have coming yeah that's great it's a that's a great event i'm looking forward to to being there and
20:43seeing everybody all right we'll talk again soon thanks mike thanks harrah
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