00:02So, Jason, I'll pass over to you. Thank you.
00:04Well, Lee, thanks, Becky. Morning, folks.
00:06Right, starting off with the latest visible satellite image.
00:08We have the weak front that came south overnight,
00:11clear now into northwest France and parts of the Low Countries.
00:15Falling all behind, ridge of high pressure.
00:17It's characterised by a fair bit of cloud,
00:18and there is the odd shower around in that as well,
00:20but not expecting any of that to cause too much in the wave issues today.
00:23But I'm sure your eyes are drawn to what's going on out to the west of Ireland here.
00:26This is the next system which is winding up for the overnight period tonight.
00:30And then tomorrow, and then through tomorrow,
00:32and more especially overnight into Sunday.
00:34It's giving me headaches as to how it's going to behave.
00:37But the general gist is this will get into the far west of Northern Ireland
00:41by around 9 or 10 o'clock local tonight,
00:44and then spread across Scotland, Northern England and North Wales
00:46overnight tonight into tomorrow,
00:48and bring with it some heavy rain, some strong winds,
00:51but none of it looks like it's going to require any kind of warning response.
00:55So we'll just show you how that's going to pan out in the thermal pattern.
00:58This is where we should be midday today, early afternoon,
01:02range of high pressure dominating, relatively cool air,
01:04so temperatures are more or less bang on average for the time of year.
01:07We could squeeze a 23 or a 24 across South East England
01:10where we have a legacy of some warmer air from yesterday.
01:12But you'll note out to the west, very brightly coloured, very warm air,
01:18subtropical air coming in from the west-southwest.
01:20As I say, that gets into Ireland and west of Scotland into the first part of the night
01:25before then sinking south-south-east as it does.
01:28So some pretty tight gradients associated with that.
01:30So unsurprisingly, wind gusts, if we can find my wind gusts,
01:34here we are here on the right-hand side,
01:37get up to into the 40s of knots around exposure,
01:40so 50, 55 miles per hour, something like that.
01:43And quite a strong mountain wave signal,
01:44so quite a lot of lead gustiness.
01:46So anywhere to the north-east of high ground,
01:48could see some pretty marked gusts as well.
01:50But those winds do start to moderate through tomorrow
01:53as the whole thing sinks south.
01:55And as it does, so that's when the front starts to stall
01:59and gives me a bit of a headache.
02:01But anyway, as we go back to tomorrow then,
02:02that rain will continue south-south-east.
02:04As it becomes aligned with the flow,
02:06parts of high ground of West Wales in particular
02:09look like seeing some pretty wet weather.
02:11And underneath all this as well, just to the south,
02:14it's going to get pretty muggy.
02:15Dew points coming up into the mid-teens,
02:17perhaps even locally high teens.
02:19So quite a muggy feel there,
02:21relatively muggy to the rear of that as well.
02:23It's not really until we get up into this air mass
02:25edging into the north-west of Scotland
02:27by the end of tomorrow that we start to see
02:30any sort of fresher conditions.
02:32And then by the time we get to sort of tomorrow evening,
02:34if I show you the European model,
02:35which I have here and compare that to the global model,
02:38you note that there are subtle differences
02:39in the actual position of the warm plume
02:43and warm conveyor that's going to be in place at that point.
02:46And those differences continue into the overnight period,
02:48such that by the time we get to the back end of Saturday
02:50and into the early hours of Sunday,
02:52the European model would have rainfall across much of Wales
02:55into the south of Northern England,
02:57across the Midlands and East Anglia,
02:59whereas our model has everything much further south
03:01and instead brings another pulse of heavy rain across southern areas.
03:05So fair bit to play for with that.
03:07If I show you what that looks like in ensemble land.
03:10So what I have here, I know it's quite a messy plot,
03:12but essentially it's the ensemble position of every ensemble member
03:17showing where the front's expected to be in that member at midnight tomorrow night.
03:23So anywhere from parts of southern Northern Ireland towards the far north of England
03:28all the way down to parts of South Wales and into the Midlands,
03:31anywhere within that sort of zone is where the ensembles are suggesting the frontal zone
03:35may come to a standstill.
03:36So it may well take a bit longer the rest of today,
03:41perhaps even overnight tonight into tomorrow before we have any greater confidence in that.
03:44But the general gist is that should slowly but surely start to clear away as it go through Sunday itself.
03:50And any energy associated with it should ease as well,
03:52because if you note the isopowers here,
03:54we're getting a bit of a ridge building across that,
03:56and that should hopefully kill off a lot of the precip.
03:58So once we get those sort of next, well, from tonight until Sunday morning,
04:03the forecast then becomes a lot more straightforward.
04:07But I'll come back to that in a second.
04:08The main thing of note from this is the impact of rainfall totals.
04:11So what I have here is the last three long runs of the UKV showing 36-hour rainfall totals
04:16from midnight tonight out until 0600 on Sunday morning.
04:21And West is picking out the more resilient areas of West Scotland and Northwest England
04:25for the largest rainfall totals.
04:26Some of the previous runs did generate quite large rainfall totals,
04:30and one run had an excess of 100 millimetres across parts of Northwest Wales.
04:35Thankfully, the most recent output has come down with respect to that actual expected total.
04:41But if I show you the global models, the European model in the middle, for example,
04:45still has quite a lot of rainfall across West Wales.
04:48So with respect to watch points this weekend, that's the main one that we're going to have.
04:52And speaking to our colleagues in the Float Forecast Centre and EA,
04:55they're not expecting any impacts from that,
04:57but there may well be some minor surface water impacts on roads in the region and what have you.
05:02So again, one to watch.
05:05Thereafter, we start to see the Atlantic becoming more dominant again,
05:09with that sort of ridge down to the south being squeezed out.
05:13The next frontal system coming through as you go through Monday into Tuesday.
05:16Better agreement than this one that it'll just rattle through,
05:18so it shouldn't cause too much snow wave issues.
05:20And then behind that, we'll get into a cool northwesterly flow.
05:23And then we'll have a ridge out to the west-southwest of the country,
05:26which is going to be dominant into the extended medium range period,
05:30where the frontal system is sinking south,
05:33occasionally accompanied by some strong winds.
05:35But by this stage, the main or the mean flow direction is going to be north of west.
05:40So we're probably seeing temperatures on the way down.
05:42Before then, however, temperature-wise, this is the nighttime temperatures for the coming nights.
05:48So overnight tonight, becoming quite warm and muggy in the north as our frontal system comes in.
05:53Slightly cool through the middle,
05:54but tomorrow night, the focus of the warmest weather then is across the south of the country.
05:58And we could well see some mist and fog and grass frost across the northern half of the country.
06:03And then thereafter, the warming trend continues with nighttime temperatures above normal.
06:07Similarly, by day, I mentioned today's buying average.
06:11Tomorrow, on Sunday and Monday, we are seeing some higher than average temperatures,
06:15or higher than usual for the time of year, across parts of England and Wales in particular.
06:19And then looking at the extended range output,
06:21once we get into the more Atlantic-influenced regimes,
06:25you note that the temperatures trend down close to, or even slightly below normal.
06:29And I'd imagine, should we see any ridging in amongst all that,
06:31by night we'll get bits and pieces of fog and frost, which is entirely seasonal.
06:35So there we go, Becky. That's all I have. Happy to take any questions.
06:39Sounds good. Thanks, Jason. I'll just press stop on the record quickly.
06:41Let's go ELLI.
06:42go ELLI
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