00:00Tehran is still demanding full control over inbound shipping. Is Washington prepared to
00:06surrender control of one of the world's most vital waterways to Iran to get this deal over the line?
00:14Obviously not. I believe that that assumption or even question is flawed,
00:20because there is no reason for the United States to do that. The consequences are absolutely
00:27beyond the appetite and the capacity of the United States and the world. The Islamic Republic
00:34faces a serious problem, a lack of acceptance by its own people. So negotiating a deal has two
00:42challenges to overcome. Number one, do you trust them? Whatever they agree with, we have seen that
00:50this is not something we can rely on. We'll see. We'll see what happens. I think the policies of
00:57the United States have proven, whether it's a psychological warfare or it's other types of
01:03games, has proven effective in keeping the oil prices in check. The United States cannot afford
01:09prices of oil above $130. There's certain computations that go into that, but it's done a good job in
01:17doing that. And the Strait of Hormuz cannot remain closed. If oil jumps up to levels that are beyond the
01:27tolerance and appetite of the economies around the world, it will be a disaster. It cannot be permitted
01:34to happen. But I'm not sure for another reason, and that is even if an agreement is reached, in any
01:44case,
01:45I don't believe the Islamic Republic will honor it. They just can't do that. They have too much money,
01:51too much power to give up, especially illegitimate money, capital that is earned through illegitimate
01:58ways and means, and they are not letting go. They will resist. You know what we're watching is a game
02:05of one side trying to extract concessions from another side, because the other side is in survival
02:11mode and looks extremely weak. So that's that's where the conflict comes. The Washington says we're
02:19talking. Tehran says no such thing. So how do you reconcile that? Well, it's it's the third parties who are
02:26trying to make a deal, but then they have no authority. People who are negotiating don't carry an authority. So
02:34that's the
02:35reality. Very fragile, very unreliable. I believe Secretary Besant has reasons to to believe to be
02:43optimistic. Everyone wants to be optimistic, but the evidence shows the opposite. We cannot be optimistic.
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