00:00I mean, look, this is a situation where both parties are feeling the pain of this ongoing
00:05war. The reason that both parties signed the MOU in the first place is that they were both
00:11being fairly pragmatic about the need to end this conflict and move towards longer term negotiations
00:18and address issues like the Strait of Hormuz and Iran's nuclear program,
00:23as well as other issues that were on the table, like Iran's frozen assets and so on.
00:30Now, it continues to be in both parties' interests to reach a deal. The U.S.,
00:39can it institute a blockade in the Strait? Absolutely. It is physically capable of doing so.
00:46At what cost, though? And that's the question we have to be looking at. Same for Iran.
00:51Can it continue to raise the stakes vis-a-vis the United States and threaten to attack ships in
00:58the Strait and close the Strait? Yes, it can. But at what cost? Iran has been suffering economically
01:05for years and for months. And if you remember, Tom, the protests that we saw last December and
01:11this past January that were some of the largest we've ever seen in recent history in Iran were
01:17started because of the economic situation. So Iran also can't afford to raise the stakes so high that
01:25it finds itself in another full-blown conflict with the United States. So this is a situation now where
01:32both sides are trying to talk each other to the ledge, wondering if they can get the other side to
01:38concede.
01:39I suspect that once they realize the other side won't concede, we will start to see talks
01:44about getting back to negotiations again.
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