00:00But I just want to say Iran has responded negatively to America's proposal to end the war,
00:05flexing its power over the Strait of Hormuz and causing economic harm to the world
00:10and also to neighboring Gulf countries.
00:13Is Iran's negotiating position now stronger than it was when the conflict begun?
00:21Do they now have more cards because they've shown that they can use the Strait of Hormuz and they can
00:26retaliate?
00:28Well, they do claim that they can control and keep the Strait of Hormuz closed for as long as they
00:36want.
00:37That is not true.
00:38They cannot do that for two reasons.
00:40First of all, it would hurt the Islamic Republic itself because this is a trade route actually used by Islamic
00:48Republic.
00:49So by closing it, they're actually closing their own ability to be able to conduct trade as usual.
00:56If the waterway, the choke point is closed, everyone will suffer.
01:02But the question is, can the Islamic Republic hold the Strait of Hormuz closed for a long period of time?
01:10They cannot.
01:11They cannot do that.
01:12Yeah, the threat they pose is about 5,000 sea mines that they would put there.
01:18The threat they pose is the asymmetrical toolkit of drones and mines and missiles.
01:25But they're going down in the supply of these tools in the toolkit.
01:31So the claim that we could keep the Strait of Hormuz closed is a claim yet to be assessed.
01:38When you ask the question, are they in a stronger position?
01:42Well, in what perspective?
01:44Stronger from the claim they make or stronger in terms of actually executing that claim?
01:50The first one may be giving you the impression that they are stronger because they're making the claim.
01:56But can they deliver on that is the real answer.
01:59And that answer is no.
02:01They cannot hold on to this position for any meaningful length of time.
02:06See, Iran is losing militarily, but it has resisted.
02:13That is not deniable.
02:14It has resisted.
02:15It continues to resist, but it's going down in the strength of resistance.
02:2090%.
02:2190% is a decrease in the missile power measured by a variety of sources and verified.
02:29So what Iran was yesterday is not an indication of what Islamic Republic would be tomorrow.
02:37So the answer to your question is today, maybe it looks stronger.
02:41But tomorrow, we'll see.
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