00:00We continue to watch the Gulf in the southwest Atlantic for tropical development late this weekend and early next week.
00:08The chance remains low. It's called homegrown development.
00:13It's when we get an interaction between the jet stream and the tropics to start the showers and thunderstorms to
00:19form that is already underway.
00:21And by Sunday, it continues. Now, the question remains, can you get that area of showers and thunderstorms
00:28that forms in the Gulf to stay over water for more than 48 hours to develop into a tropical system?
00:34That's the main question, because the other ingredients for tropical development will be there.
00:40Number one, plenty of warm water across the Gulf of Mexico where water temperatures are above that threshold of 80
00:45degrees and in the southwest Atlantic.
00:47And also notice our wind shear product as we go through the rest of our Friday and into the weekend.
00:52You see a lot of light purple in the southwest Atlantic and also into the Gulf.
00:58So we have the warm water. We have the low wind shear.
01:02The question is, this area of thunderstorms may be very close to land or it could move inland early next
01:08week.
01:08So it may not have the time to develop. And that's why we're keeping a low chance for development.
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