Stage set for tropical development

AccuWeather

AccuWeather's Bernie Rayno breaks down the conditions for possible tropical development next week as we head into the heart of the hurricane season.

Transcript

00:00Hey, time is a ticking here.

00:01We are really approaching our

00:03heart of the hurricane season.

00:04Some would argue we're already in it.

00:06Yeah, you know, I've got a couple of stats.

00:08I want to show you here, Ariella.

00:10Why do we call late September or late

00:12August in the September the heart

00:14of the hurricane season?

00:15Well, if you take a look at the number

00:18of storms that have been reported

00:19from May through December,

00:22so even outside of the Hurricane Center,

00:24because the Hurricane Center is

00:25June through December.

00:26When you take a look at that,

00:28most of the activity is right in here.

00:30Late August in this September,

00:32where you have the most named

00:33storms and also the hurricane.

00:34So that's one stat we can do.

00:36Let's take a look at another one here.

00:38Number of days doing a number of times

00:40during this period that we've had a land

00:43falling hurricane in the United States.

00:46On these days since 1850 here from

00:50August 27th through October 16th.

00:52And you can see here we go.

00:55August in the September,

00:56the highest date for landfalling.

00:59Hurricanes is actually September 16th,

01:01but you could see August and through

01:04the month of September is well

01:06represented here for the number of

01:08days where you get a landfalling storm.

01:10So it just shows you that much of the

01:13activity now is doing this time frame,

01:15and it's it's mostly because this is

01:17when the water temperatures peak and

01:19also you don't have the Saharan dust,

01:22right?

01:22That shuts the tropics down.

01:24Typically doing July and early parts of

01:27August now having said that it's

01:29eerily quiet right now.

01:30I mean, we should be looking at a

01:33tropical storm or hurricane.

01:34At least one of them tracking.

01:36We don't have anything right now,

01:38but we've been watching this

01:39organized mess this morning.

01:41Now this is going to take it some

01:43time to kind of shake out here.

01:45I suspect that this is the area of

01:47thunderstorms that will begin to take over,

01:49but there's no organization right now,

01:51and I think it's going to take

01:53some time for this system to organize.

01:55The question is, will it?

01:56I think the answer is yes,

01:58and here's why.

01:59When you look at the water vapor loop,

02:01by the way, here's all the Saharan dust,

02:03but you could already see there's

02:04not much more coming off Africa,

02:06so I think this dry,

02:07dusty air is going to start going

02:09away here in the next week to 10 days.

02:11I don't see any dryer coming into this area.

02:13In fact,

02:14you could see it getting pushed away

02:15so the dry air isn't going to stop this.

02:18I wouldn't say it's in an ideal

02:19location for wind shear or wind shear

02:21purples is where we do have some

02:23stronger wind shears that would not

02:25allow this system to develop.

02:26It kind of rips it apart.

02:28It's OK, but you'll notice.

02:31In here, Caribbean,

02:32this is where we've been pointing all

02:34week that that is the area to watch as

02:36this continues its move to the West Northwest.

02:39I would not look for much of

02:41anything here this weekend,

02:42although there will be some impacts

02:43Sunday night, Monday morning,

02:45across all of the lesser Antilles

02:46with some locally every rain.

02:48I do believe we will have a named

02:50storm in the Caribbean by Tuesday

02:52and Wednesday of next week.

02:54Not the only system we're watching

02:56an area thunderstorms coming off Africa.

02:57I think this will likely be a

02:59named storm to at some point next week.

03:01We have a low chance for it for now,

03:04but even if it does develop,

03:05it's not heading toward the US.

03:07It's heading into the Central Atlantic,

03:09but of course we'll keep an eye on it.

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