00:00It's a show of force that the INC is trying to tell us that they can mobilize people given a
00:07very short time.
00:08Pero the numbers right now, I believe, may not be enough yet.
00:16Pilipinas, gising na. Magpapatuloy po ang kilos protesta ng mga miembro ng Iglesia ni Cristo ngayong araw.
00:22Silipin natin ang live na sitwasyon ngayon dyan.
00:25As of 6.34 this morning, yan po ang sitwasyon sa bahagi ng EDSA White Plains.
00:31Yung White Plains, ayawin nyo po, hindi pa rin nadadaanan ng mga sasakyan.
00:34Pero yung EDSA, yan yung direksyon patungon ng monumento o northbound, nadadaanan naman po sa mga oras na ito.
00:43Yung opposite lane, nadadaanan pa rin po.
00:46Pero syempre, hindi pa rin normal at dalin ng trafico dahil may mga tao pa rin po dyan.
00:51Ayon sa Quezon City Department of Public Order and Safety, may permit para mag-rally ang INC sa EDSA White
00:56Plains mula alas 8 ng umaga hanggang alas 8 ng gabi.
01:00Ano kaya ang opinion ng mga kapuso natin sa nagaganap na kilos protesta?
01:05Syempre, nakakaabala sa lahat ng mga commuters, lahat ng mga dumadaan sa EDSA.
01:11Huwag nila naman po sa ginawa nila para ma-actionan po yung nangyari ngayon sa atin ngayon na sobrang gulo
01:17na ang dami ng mga nangyayari.
01:20Karapatan naman nila yun eh, na mag-rally. Hindi pa hindi sa pinaglalaban nila.
01:24Hindi po, kasi rally ng rally, wala namang nagagawa yung presidente natin.
01:29Nahihirapan patuloy yung lalong may hirap.
01:37Yan ang ating pag-uusapan, lilinawi na tihimayin.
01:41On record, sa unang hirin.
01:44At ngayong umaga, mga kasama po natin, political analyst, Professor Froylan Kalilong ng UST, Department of Political Science.
01:50Professor, good morning. Welcome back.
01:52Good morning, Ivan. At good morning po sa lahat ng ating managawa.
01:54We are on record na, Professor.
01:56Unahin natin, binulaga tayo ng isang malaking pagtitipon ng INC kahapon.
02:01Una-una, Prof. What do you make of the fact na ginawa itong surprise protest action?
02:06Bakit kailangan may element of surprise ang ginawa nila?
02:08Well, for one, kinakailangan talaga na mayroong surprise element para masiguro natin yung spontaneity.
02:16Kung maga parang hindi siya planado, and so technically, mas naging natural yung dating ng kanilang uprising at yung kanilang
02:26mass mobilization.
02:27Another thing is, it's a show of force that the INC is trying to tell us that they can mobilize
02:34people given a very short time or a very short notice without much preparation.
02:39And at the same time, siguro, this is in line also with what they really want to have or what
02:45they want to achieve as a part of their agenda, technically.
02:50I must point out, Prof, na kung anong bilis ng deployment, na mobilization ng INC, hindi yata nakasabay yung government
02:58forces.
02:59Ganon din ba ang tingin ninyo?
03:00Well, yeah.
03:01Naisahan sila kung baga?
03:02Technically, kasi I think they got the report midnight na na mayroong ganitong magaganap na mass mobilization.
03:12So, talagang hindi ka agad nakapag-react, no? And too late already, in the morning, no, na nandoon na yung
03:18medyo malaki-laking crowd, it's going to be very hard for them to really quell it already.
03:23Na-paralyze na yung EDSA, ano?
03:24Yes.
03:25Ang basihan ng protesta, Prof, kontra katiwalian at pagtutol sa anunsyong pagsasampa ng kasong plunder laban kay Sen. Marcoleta.
03:33Ang tingin ng INC kasi dito sa Prof, ay selective prosecution.
03:37May basihan kaya itong assertion na ito, Prof, given that Sen. Marcoleta is a very prominent and vocal opposition figure?
03:43Well, yung timing kasi, Sir Ivan, ano, I mean, they mobilized it as soon as naglabas na sa isang press
03:49con si Ombudsman Rimulya na kakasuan na arrestohin na si Sen. Marcoleta.
03:56And definitely, medyo it does not sit well with the INC, given the fact na kaaliado nila, member nila, si
04:03Sen. Marcoleta.
04:04At the same time, may mga personalidad na nauna na sinasabi ng Ombudsman na sasampahan na at yung term na
04:10ginagamit niya, hinug na yung kaso.
04:12I'm referring to Sen. Jesus Guadero and Sen. Jorge Villanueva.
04:16And then, all of a sudden, biglang nag-shift ng focus when the two senators went to the majority right
04:22now.
04:22So, again, another angle that we're seeing here is the possibility nga na po pwedeng si Sen. Marcoleta ay sinasampahan
04:29ng ganito kaso para hindi siya maka-attend doon sa impeachment ni VP.
04:32Pero kung titignan din naman natin yung angulo ng Ombudsman, mayroon din naman talagang basis yung kasong plunder, technically, no?
04:39Dahil nga, unang-una, tumanggap siya ng campaign donations when he was still, technically, a congressman dahil wala pa talaga
04:47tayo doon sa period ng campaign based on the Piñera doctrine.
04:51So, yun yung dilema dito ngayon ng Ombudsman, whether or not they're going to recant yung kaso or if they're
04:59going to push forth with it, medyo doon papasok yung pressure na ginagawa nitong rally na to.
05:06Nabanggit niyo na rin yung Ombudsman, Professor. All eyes are on the Ombudsman now dahil after they announced the charges
05:14against Sen. Marcoleta, ito ang INC nag-mobilize, ano ho kaya magiging galaw ng Ombudsman after yesterday's protest action?
05:23Well, definitely, he needs to, kumbaga, toe the line between. Kasi from a legal standpoint, mayroon naman talagang basis, no?
05:32But then again, from a political perspective, this is where things get a little bit complicated, no?
05:38Kung dito ba siya talaga, dito papasok kasi yung political pressure, you know?
05:42Particularly, dito nga sa nagganap na mass mobilization na to, maaaring iniisip natin, ano, na it may cause economic repercussions,
05:54particularly doon sa ating day-to-day flow, no?
05:57Particularly, the traffic, yung mga commuters natin, yung ating mga trabaho na naantala, things like that, no?
06:03So, there's really that pressure. So, medyo mahirap talaga.
06:07Lalabot kaya? Lalabot kaya ang Ombudsman? Tutuloyan kaya nila? Ano ba sa rinyo?
06:10Well, dito, dito nga, medyo mahirap, ano? Unang-una, kasi you're not looking at somebody na kaalyado mo, eh.
06:18Siguro kung kaalyado niya itong si Sen. Dante Marcoleta, maaaring, madali para sa kanya, no?
06:24Pero the point is, it's on the other fence, no?
06:26And ito nga, nagkaroon ng pressure coming from the, yun nga, sa mga kasamahan, Sen. Dante Marcoleta,
06:32and pinakita, yung, yun nga, yung show force, no?
06:35And so, this is really a very difficult situation for the Ombudsman.
06:40What do you make of the way the protest was carried out, Professor?
06:43Hindi lang kasi pagpapakayag, eh.
06:45Usually, they gather, lando sa gilid, they express what they want,
06:49pero walang ganong abala.
06:53Gamitin na natin yung word na abala sa ibang tao.
06:55Pero gusto talagang paralisahin ng protest action yung EDSA.
06:59Yeah, yeah.
07:00What does the INC want to accomplish by doing this?
07:02Well, number one, they really want to show that they're forced to reckon with,
07:07that they have a voice dito sa political spectrum ng ating bansa,
07:12na meron talaga silang gustong isulong, no?
07:16Na siguro, reform agenda, whatever you call it.
07:19Pero yun nga, marami sa ating mga kababayan,
07:21medyo hindi nagustuhan talaga yung naging epekto, no?
07:23Kasi nga, una-una, talagang it's unplanned, no?
07:26And I think that's really the purpose.
07:28And nga lang, siyempre, kung punto de visang legal,
07:32siyempre, kung legal perspective yung inilalaban mo rito,
07:35dapat idinadaan din natin sa legal na actions, no?
07:39Meron kasi tayong batas yung BP 880, no?
07:42Kung saan talagang medyo na-violate dito
07:44because Edsa and White Plains is not a freedom part, no?
07:47And yun yung isa sa siguro sa akin na kailangan nila ding ayusin dito, no?
07:52Moving forward.
07:53Pero yun nga, hindi naman ito bago for the INC
07:56kasi may presidencetong.
07:57Noong 2015, no?
07:58Technically, at...
08:00Ilang araw din yung prof, ha?
08:01Yeah, several days there.
08:02Pero it was against Laila de Lima during that time.
08:05Pero kasi iba-iba yun.
08:06Kasi yung punto na yun, yung time na yun,
08:09internal yung problema nila.
08:10Ngayon kasi medyo mas malawak na political
08:14or it's a broader political contention
08:17that we're seeing right now.
08:19Yung Abala umabot up to the highest levels.
08:23Ang Pangulo po nag-cancel ng kanya engagements.
08:27Sinara din yung mga entrances sa palasyo.
08:30All of this while claiming that there was no threat against the President.
08:35Ito ho ba, hindi na downplay na lang ng Malacanang
08:38o meron bang threat na hindi natin alam?
08:41Well, any kind of mass mobilization like this
08:45could create a critical mass
08:46which could eventually build up to a larger political inertia
08:51na nakita na natin sa mga ilang pahina ng ating kasaysayan.
08:56And sa 1, 2, and 3.
08:59Parang spontaneous kasi yan.
09:02Talagang mayroong maaring may triggering factor
09:04pero biglaan lang talaga.
09:06And I think Malacanang is not downplaying this possibility.
09:09Although I think the full force naman of the country,
09:13the police force and the mga peacekeeping troops natin are all there.
09:16Pero hindi natin po pwede sabihin na ito ay basta-basta lamang.
09:20Because yun nga, kapag sinakyan na ito
09:22ng iba't-ibang mga grupo na maaring hindi lang INC
09:26pero they have the same motivation or the same political agenda,
09:30then it could create a bigger problem later on.
09:34Abang kinikilala yung karapatan ng libu-libong INC na magpahayag,
09:37nariyan din naman po yung libu-libong na rin na naapektuhan,
09:41naabala, nanawagan din sa Estado na gawin naman yung nararapat.
09:44Kung sinasabi nilang hindi otorizado itong pagtitipon,
09:48eh, do something, di ba?
09:50Sa tingin nyo ba, Prof, naging malambot yung aksyon ng pamahalaan kahapon?
09:53Well, in the first place, there should always be that maximum tolerance
09:58on the part of the police force.
10:00Of course, because this is, after all, they're demonstrating
10:04or showing yung kanilang sentiment, freedom of expression.
10:07But then again, sabi nga natin,
10:08all rights are supposed to be grounded on something that is also legal.
10:13And in this particular instance, I think, medyo baka naisip ng iglesia
10:20na kung hihingi sila ng permit beforehand,
10:24at yung kanilang kadahilanan is something very politically charged or controversial,
10:29baka hindi sila pagbigyan.
10:30And so, they already did what they need to do.
10:34Pero right now, I think they were already granted a permit, which is good.
10:37So, kinakailangan kasi dito talaga, mahalaga, Ivan, yung crowd control,
10:41tsaka yung vehicle positioning para hindi talaga maantala.
10:47Especially EDSA, it's a very, very important artery.
10:49It's a major thoroughfare in the country.
10:51So, it's really going to create a lot of economic and, sabihin na nating, social repercussions.
10:58Individually, na inconvenience yung marami dito sa nangyaring ito.
11:02So, ayon sa QCPD, Prof, nasa 15,000 yung crowd estimate kahapon.
11:06How big or small is this number?
11:09Well, hindi natin masasabi na malaki or maliit.
11:15I mean, this is just the first day after all.
11:17So, maaari kasing dadagsa or dadami pa,
11:21depending of course on how the decision will be.
11:25Siyempre, ang iglesia, sumusunod naman yan sa compas.
11:27I asked that question, Prof, dahil historically ba,
11:32is this enough to accomplish yung goal to create critical mass
11:36and perhaps effect regime change as others who were there are floating?
11:41May mga nagpapalot ba kasi na,
11:43ito, usapan na ng people power, may narinig ako.
11:46VP Sara, standby na dahil baka ito na yung simula ng pagpapalit natin ng liderato.
11:50Well, pwede kasing may naiyari.
11:53Pero technically, if we're looking at the numbers alone,
11:55hindi pa sapat yung numero, medyo maliit pa siya.
11:59Pero yun nga, lahat naman ng lumalaki, nagsisumula sa maliit.
12:03So, this is really where it gets tricky on how the leadership of the INC
12:08and how the other forces will gravitate around the issue.
12:11Kasi po, pwede talaga itong sakyan ng iba't ibang mga puwersa
12:14na nag-aantay lamang, no?
12:16Nung triggering factor,
12:17tsaka yung tinatawag nating tipping point for them to converge.
12:20So, yun yung ano eh, yung kinakailangan natin kina nito.
12:24And another thing is, how well will the government be able to respond to this?
12:28So, these two factors will be very critical.
12:30Pero the numbers right now, I believe, may not be enough yet.
12:34At tsaka, ang nakikita ho natin na wala sa ngayon,
12:37na meron doon sa mga nakaraan,
12:39yung armed component,
12:41yung the armed forces and the police.
12:43But we need to also understand that,
12:46yun nga, yung sinasabi nating tipping point kasi,
12:48triggering factor kasi yan eh.
12:50For all we know, everybody is just waiting.
12:53Everybody may just be waiting for the right time.
12:55And who knows, maybe they're thinking,
12:57maybe this is the right time.
12:58But again, without the armed forces,
13:00without the military turning their backs against the government,
13:03as what we have seen,
13:04noong ETSA 1 and ETSA 2,
13:06hindi natin makukuha pa yung kinatawag nating regime change in the moment.
13:10Already, napaka-devicing dito politically,
13:13made more divisive by the fact na involved dito,
13:16INC, na historically ay hindi nangingibing magpakita ng puwersa
13:20at pagkakaisa para sa mga usaping panlipunan at pampolitika.
13:23How should the public process this,
13:25even in their own smaller social circles?
13:29Baka naman may mga nagkaka-aawi-aon,
13:31nagkaka-unfriendan na dyan sa ano, di ba?
13:33Well, hindi naman may iwasan siguro,
13:36lalong-lalo na, sa totoo lang,
13:38may pinaglalaban din naman ng INC.
13:40If you're really looking for selective,
13:42sabi nga nila, selective justice,
13:44they're really looking for full accountability.
13:47At meron din naman angulo na gustong isulong yung ombudsman.
13:51Yun nga lang, kung titignan natin,
13:53kung titignan natin kung sino yung mas mabigat dito,
13:56yun yung medyo challenge sa mga umpukan,
13:59sa kalien, sa kung saan-saan.
14:01Sa mga GC.
14:02Sa mga GC.
14:03Nag-aaway dyan.
14:04Pero the point is,
14:06I think kailangan natin kasing balansihin,
14:09yung legal at yung political.
14:11Kasi ang punto na iwasan rito talaga ng ubusman
14:13is really from the legal perspective.
14:15Then again, mayroong political angle kasi.
14:17And from the point of view of the INC,
14:20they believe that this is more of a political persecution,
14:22especially for Senator Dante Marcoleta,
14:24who is a vocal, very vocal,
14:26against the administration's handling of the flood control scandal.
14:30So, these are the things na kinakailangan talaga tignan.
14:33Pero at the end of the day, it's discernment.
14:35Kinakailangan talaga himayin natin maigi yung mga issue
14:38bago tayo magsasabi ng gano'ng,
14:40magsishare, magpapost.
14:41Because it may create a greater level of political polarization
14:44if ever this will happen.
14:46Professor, thank you very much again for your insights.
14:48Anytime.
14:49Nang-usap po natin,
14:50Professor Froylan Kalilong,
14:51political analyst ng UST,
14:53Department of Political Science.
14:55Ang mga issue pinag-uusapan,
14:57lilinawin at hihimayin natin yan
14:59on record sa unang hirin.
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