00:00The good news is, there is enough supply in the world.
00:02The bad news is, magmamahal.
00:09Pilipinas, gising na.
00:11Ang tanong ng bayan, nakapagpagas na ba lahat?
00:14Nakukahapon po, nagsimula na yung staggered o utay-utay na big-time oil price hike sa bansa.
00:19At tuloy-tuloy natataas ang presyo niyan ngayong linggo.
00:23Ano kaya masasabi ng ating mga kapuso sa isyong yan?
00:26Sa tingin ko, parang may mawi-uwi ako sa pamilya o wala eh.
00:32Kasi yung kita namin, mapupunta sa pungtahas ng alas 25 pesos na bubari ba yung itinaas ng disimpermeter.
00:39Baka hindi po muna kami magkita-drive po kasi hirap po nating, hirap po ang sitwasyon na big-lantas po
00:45na.
00:46Malaking pekto sa amin kasi nga yung kinikita namin parang mas lumiliit.
00:5250-50 kasi kung magtataas din naman ng gasolina, natural, talaga magtataas din ng pamasahe yung driver.
01:00Ako, kasi wababa ang serbo eh.
01:03Nakapagdaganan yung serbo.
01:05Pabor na po ma'am kasi para naman sa mga kababayan nating mga driver, na mamasada, na wala naman silang
01:12kikitain doon.
01:17At para pag-usapan ang nararanasan nating krisis sa petrolyo, makasama po natin dating Department of Energy Secretary, Governor Jericho
01:26Petilla.
01:27Gov, good morning.
01:28Good morning, Ivan.
01:29Thank you for joining us.
01:29Good morning.
01:30Gov, we're on record now. Unang tanong ko po. Una, let's get some assumptions clear.
01:34Yung Pilipinas po kasi net importer tayo ng petrolyo.
01:38We import kaya nakadependent tayo sa exporting countries at sa mga kumpanya na nag-i-import nito.
01:43So, ang tanong, Gov, bakit pagka laki-laki ng taas, ito namang supply natin na yun, nabili pa sa mas
01:51mababa eh.
01:51Yun yung tanong ng mga kababayan natin eh.
01:53Bakit ka ba ganyan yung sistema?
01:55I think yung DOE na sagot na yan, ni Secretary Garin, at tama naman ang sinabi niya na it's about
02:03replacement cost.
02:04Pag bumili uli ako, yun ang babasihan ko.
02:08So, parang sadali lang. Eh, meron ka pang supply. Eh, bakit magtataas ka na?
02:14Eh, kasi hindi naman lahat ng supply pare-pareho. Merong 30 days yung iba, merong 7 days.
02:19Merong iba, walang stock. Kasi bumibili lang sa wholesaler.
02:23Pero ang bottom line dito, gumawa ng isang formula na kung ano ang replacement cost.
02:28Pero lahat nagrireklamo ngayon.
02:30Pero dapat ang bantayan natin ganito, pag bumaba ang presyo ng langis, bumaba sa world market.
02:37Hindi naman forever magigira ito eh. At some point, bababa ito.
02:40Pag bumaba, dapat hindi rin sila magsasabi na hindi mo na kami magbababa kasi uubusin namin yung stock.
02:48Kahit mahal ang bili mo ng stock mo, magbaba ka rin.
02:51So, it works both ways dapat?
02:52Both ways yan. Dalawa yan. Yun ang babantayan dapat.
02:55Gov, balik tayo sa panahon ninyo. Si Governor Petilla po, naging Energy Secretary 2012 to 2015 sa panahon ni dating
03:02Paulong Noy Noy Aquino.
03:04May ganito ba kayong sitwasyon that you would consider comparable to the situation we have now?
03:08Yes and no. May comparable tayo kasi during that time, sabi ko nga, ba't ba ako napasok dito?
03:16Kasi pagpasok ko, yun ang mataas ang presyo ng langis sa buong, sa global.
03:22More than $100 actually.
03:24Kasi ngayon, ang normal prices natin, $80 ang Brent.
03:28During my time, more than $100.
03:31So, bakit? Marami rin kaguluhan.
03:34Libya, nag-gera, nag-civil war.
03:37Iran, may oil embargo. Haluhalo lang.
03:40Pero sinasabi kong hindi rin ganito kasi ito, this is a full-blown war.
03:45Okay.
03:45Okay, full-blown war na pati yung straight up almost, hindi madaanan.
03:49During that time, hindi ganun katindi ang gera.
03:52So, how did we manage?
03:56Ang tanong dati was, how long, ganun katagal to?
04:00Kasi ganun ang tanong ng lahat ngayon eh.
04:03We did not expect that the $100 will be there for about a year.
04:09Okay?
04:09But it went for about a year.
04:12We were thinking na baka temporary lang ito.
04:14Pero it's anybody's guess.
04:15Kahit yung gera ngayon, it's anybody's guess.
04:17So, ano nangyari doon?
04:20Marami, well, of course, energy savings.
04:24Kung pwedeng, essential lang ang biyahe natin.
04:26And there was also a time when the four-day work week was actually implemented.
04:32Things that are happening right now.
04:34But meron tayong isang ginawa doon, which was targeted subsidy.
04:40Sa transportation groups, there are two kinds of transportation.
04:45Tao at saka basic goods.
04:47Kasi ang tao, na-address mo, yung transportation.
04:50Yung basic goods naman, nagmamahal ang pagkain.
04:53So, dalawa, tinarget natin.
04:55And then, is it sustainable?
04:59Sorry, if I may interrupt.
05:01So, ganito pa rin po yung solusyon.
05:03Yung ginagawa natin ngayon, these are things that we've already tried.
05:06Yan, targeted subsidy sa tao at ganyan din sa goods.
05:10We've done this and it worked.
05:13Pero, I think the government is trying to think of a way right now.
05:17To do that.
05:18But, there is one thing na wala noon na meron ngayon.
05:22Kasi, eh kung 100 yan, bakit 77 na tayo ngayon?
05:2771.
05:28Ano ba sa panahon ko dati?
05:2965.
05:31Bakit ang laki ng difference?
05:33Because there are two factors na nandito ngayon na wala noon.
05:38Number one, dollar exchange rate.
05:41Ang laki na ng palitan.
05:42At that time, we were at 50 pesos ba?
05:45Mga 50 pesos lang tayo.
05:47Per dollar.
05:48Per dollar.
05:48Pangalawa, meron tayong train law.
05:52Nadagdagan ng 10 piso ang excise tax.
05:55Okay.
05:55So, same situation, different factors.
05:58Ang resulta, mas mahal ngayon.
06:01Gov, balikan ko lang itong sa subsidy.
06:03Ang dalawang tanong kasi dyan,
06:05nakakarating ba sa mga tamang beneficiaryo?
06:07At pangalawa, how sustainable is this?
06:10Kasi sinasabi ko ng driver, salamat po, pero good for 3 days lang ang 5,000 na fuel subsidy.
06:15Pero pag sinabi natin fuel subsidy, hindi naman sinasabi ng gobyerno na ililibri ko kayo.
06:22Ang sinasabi lang, kung ano ang diferensya dati, pantawid.
06:27Kaya ang tawag nila, pantawid.
06:28Right.
06:29So, did it work?
06:30It worked.
06:31At sabi nila, baka i-benta yung mga voucher ng mga jeepney driver.
06:35Sabi ko, hindi magbebenta yan.
06:37Hanap buhay nila yan.
06:38Right.
06:38Okay.
06:39It's so difficult to sacrifice that, no?
06:41So, is it sustainable?
06:43Yun ang tanong.
06:44Okay.
06:46Perhaps not.
06:47Pero, ang tawag nga dyan, pantawid.
06:50So, ano ang...
06:51Stop gap.
06:52Stop gap.
06:52Ano ang long term natin?
06:54Pagkaalam ko ngayon, meron na naghahain ng temporary suspension of excise tax, for example.
07:01Pero that will take time.
07:02Right.
07:03Ang tao ngayon, sabi ko, ilang buwan yan.
07:06So, ang pangtawid natin sa targeted subsidy is temporary in nature until you can find a long term solution.
07:13Let's talk about the suspension or lowering of excise.
07:17May mga proposals din po.
07:18Pati VAT.
07:19Itanggalin muna temporarily.
07:20What do you think of this?
07:23It can help.
07:24Malaki.
07:25Malaki bagay.
07:26Actually, 10 pesos, as you said, no?
07:27Yung dinadagdag sa per liter.
07:29Dinadagdag.
07:29Pero ang sinasabi ko rin parati, how do we make sure that yung tao is magbe-benefit dito at hindi
07:37lang yung mayayaman din?
07:39Kasi sabi ko nga, kung may aeroplano ka, may helicopter ka, may yate ka, upang matutuwa ka.
07:44Kasi tinanggal yung VAT.
07:46So, it affects kalahatan, including yung mga dapat hindi bawasan.
07:51Oo nga.
07:51Pwede kaya ang targeted din yun?
07:54Actually, pwede rin targeted.
07:56Pwede rin targeted ka.
07:57Mahirap magbunawa ng formula.
07:59But these are things that government will be considering.
08:03Gov, ang sinasabi pa kahapon sa hearing sa Kongreso, hindi rin pala ganun kabilis ito.
08:08Halimbawa, i-lower nga natin.
08:09May powers ang presidente, i-lower niya.
08:11Ang effectivity pala nito is another 15-20 days, ano?
08:17Yes, because you need to publish it first, kung tutusin.
08:19So, it takes, but however, during times of emergency, you can actually act on it right away, no?
08:26Kung meron kang policy.
08:28If it's a law, kung batas yan, tatanggal yung excise tax, matagal.
08:32Pero kung subsidy, pwede mo nang ma-implement ka agad habang inaantay mo ang pangmatagalan na solusyon.
08:39Gov, let's talk about inventories.
08:41Ang sabi ng DOE, good tayo until the end of April, 60 days.
08:46Safe na ba yung 60 days?
08:47Well, first of all, galing sa private sector yan.
08:50Kasi ang gobyerno, wala talagang stockpile.
08:51Okay, okay.
08:52It comes from the private sector.
08:54It's 60 days good.
08:56It's never good.
08:5790 days is never good.
08:58What we need is a continuous supply.
09:00Okay.
09:01Bad news.
09:02Okay?
09:03Well, good news.
09:04The good news is, there is enough supply in the world.
09:07Magmamahal lang dahil sa transport cost.
09:09Kasi iikot na yung Saudi Arabia sa Red Sea, etc.
09:12Lahat-lahat.
09:13Pero, that's the good news.
09:15The bad news is, magmamahal.
09:17But the supply, wala pang nakikita ang mga analyst na magkakatightin ng supply, at least in the next 60 days
09:25or so.
09:26So, yung mga senaryo na rationing, mga pila-pila para makabili ng gasolina, hindi nyo pa nakikita din yung mangyayari
09:33yun?
09:34Hindi ko nakikita unless mag-escalate yung gera na pati yung oil wells is tatamaan na at this point.
09:40Pero, ngayon, it's a transport problem more than anything else.
09:44Right.
09:45Gov, habang walang katiyakan kung hanggang saan naabot itong krisis na ito, gano'ng katagal, what should we do and
09:52what can we do?
09:54During times of crisis, nothing is normal.
09:57So, kung sinasabi natin, mag-four days work week tayo, mag-carpooling tayo, kung po pwede, sumakay tayo ng public
10:03transport, magtipid tayo.
10:07It's because we have a crisis.
10:08Okay?
10:09Pangkawin ito.
10:10So, ang pwede natin gawin, magtulung-tulungan tayo, okay, at this point in time.
10:16Anything that we can do to reduce consumption of oil, including kung nagbabalak ka, bumili ng kotse, baka pwede mo
10:22tinan yung electric vehicle.
10:24Sabi nila, tataas ang kuryente ko.
10:25Ang pagtaas ng kuryente is maliit compared sa pagtaas ng langis.
10:30Okay?
10:31Ang ratio ko is 1 is to 4.
10:34For every taas ng kuryente na piso, 4 na piso ang taas sa gasolina.
10:38So, everything we can contribute to the situation, no matter how small, no?
10:43Pag pinagsama-sama mo.
10:45I think, I'm confident that we can get to this crisis.
10:49Ayan.
10:50Mga kapuso, lahat po tayo may papel dito, ha?
10:52Hindi lang natin na pwedeng i-asa sa gobyerno ang magiging solusyon sa krisis na ito.
10:57Governor Petillo, sir, thank you very much for joining us this morning.
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