- 12 hours ago
The United States and Iran have reached a peace agreement, leading to the immediate removal of the naval blockade and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.
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00:07hello and welcome you're watching statecraft with me gita mohan now president donald trump
00:12may be close to securing a major peace deal with iran but this story has layers what looks like a
00:17diplomatic breakthrough abroad is creating political ripples and trouble inside israel
00:23as trump pushes for peace benjamin netanyahu faces pressure from coalition partners who could
00:29threaten his government survival and then at the g7 another relationship paces its own test india and
00:36the united states of america remain close partners but tensions over trade visas energy security and
00:42the death of indian sailors are becoming harder to ignore two stories two alliances and one question
00:49when diplomacy collides with domestic politics and national interests which side gives way first
00:55all this and more but first up the headlines ahead of the signing of the memorandum of understanding
01:03between iran and the united states of america in geneva on friday president trump has announced that
01:08ships now have started moving through the strait of homos they're going along the southern highway
01:13which is totally safe secure and pristine is what president trump wrote on truth social after announcing
01:21the deal between us and iran and its subsequent signing in geneva on friday president trump reached avion
01:26in france to attend the g7 summit president trump will be meeting prime minister narendra modhi on the
01:31sidelines of the summit prime minister narendra modhi arrives in slovakia for the second leg of his three
01:37nation european tour marking the first visit by an indian premier to the country since it gained independence in 1993
01:46keir starmer says under 16s will be banned from social media by spring 2027 snapchat tick tock youtube
01:54instagram facebook and x are among the platforms affected but not whatsapp or signal
02:08now breaking news coming in a senior u.s official has said that the agreement between united states of
02:14america and iran has been digitally signed by president trump and vice president jd vance and
02:20iranian parliament speaker galiba there will also be a signing ceremony on friday in geneva switzerland
02:27trump while meeting french president emmanuel macros stated that the deals all signed and the
02:34strait of homos will be fully open by friday that's the day a 19th of june when the official signing
02:42ceremony will take place in geneva that's the big news coming in uh during an interaction with the
02:50press while meeting uh french president emmanuel macron president trump took a few questions
02:56specifically on uh the deal between iran and the united states of america president trump has very
03:02clearly said that the two sides have come to an understanding and digitally signed a deal that will
03:09formally be signed in physical form in geneva when a vice president jd vance and a speaker galiba meet
03:18uh in geneva in switzerland for the signing ceremony
03:28say very very signed the deals outside and the strait is already partially opened as you know they're
03:36doing a little hunting for a couple of mines that they've already found
03:42uh but it's essentially ships are starting to go out now on friday it'll be completely open the jd's
03:50coming in for it he was originally going to do it i'll probably be gone by then we're having
03:55dinner and a day and a half right we're going to be staying quite late so i i may be
04:02involved i may not
04:03but jd was coming in for that specifically and my colleague prana padhi joins me from france he's
04:12there for the g7 summit but we'll also be looking at the deal signing between us and iran prana big
04:20news over there finally a deal's been reached friday is the date when it will formally be signed but right
04:26now uh the the the real problem could be israel with ministers saying that they do not accept the
04:33arrangement between israel between iran and america obviously there could be some minor hiccups gita
04:40but i think president donald trump uh has already taken it to social uh he has already posted a social
04:46media on social media that the the deal is finally done united states is going to lift the naval blockade
04:51and in fact the oil will start flowing via state of hormones this is certainly a big development and
04:57in fact uh he had already announced uh so uh you know as far as the the commentary coming from
05:01tehran
05:02uh i think uh you know these are minor issues but i think there is largely a consensus there is
05:07largely an agreement that uh you know deals should be uh be done and in fact you you know it
05:12very well
05:12gita that president donald trump is also under tremendous pressure because he wanted to finish it
05:17before 4th of july which is not only the 250th birthday of united states but this is his his own
05:24birthday as well and in fact uh you know iranians also knew certainly uh you know this is this is
05:30a
05:31big uh development in in terms of you know uh the way iran has asserted and the way iran made
05:38united
05:38state uh to to agree on certain conditions on on certain things and in fact uh get some concessions
05:44out of united states uh president donald trump might be showing it as a big victory but if you
05:49see that uh straight of hormones has turned out to be a big big strategic weapon for iran and in
05:54fact
05:55unlike jcpoa deal because you will recall that uh during obama uh administration of 2015 and 2016
06:02when there was iran united states tension till that time iran never been able to close the state of
06:08hormones but this time iran not only able to close the state of hormones but they only sustained
06:13this closure for over 100 days and in fact this is a big uh this is this is a big
06:18uh showcase of iran's
06:20strength and certainly president donald trump has agreed to to uh and to to giving out certain
06:25concessions to iran right uh you know we'll have to wait and see whether the likes of ben gavir are
06:31going to derail the process but for now this is a huge announcement it could lead to lasting peace
06:36pranav padhyay will be getting all the details and developments from france thank you so much
06:40pranav for joining us for now a conflict that began on the 28th of february with us israel bombing
06:49iran and killing most of its top leadership finally seems to culminate into peace and stability in west
06:55asian region amid a fragile pc's fire announced by president donald trump and on the pretext of
07:01self-defense by the us centcom the commander-in-chief of the united states president donald trump announced
07:07in a post on truth social that a deal with iran was complete resulting in the immediate removal
07:13of the united states naval blockade trump said and i quote ships of the world start your engines
07:19let the oil flow unquote in yet another post trump wrote that the strait of hormones would open as soon
07:26as the deal is signed on friday in switzerland iran to confirm that it has reached a deal with the
07:33us to
07:33and fighting on all fronts including lebanon iranian foreign minister abbas iraqi spoke over the phone
07:40with his counterparts in egypt iraq and turkey the ministers discussed the u.s iran deal and distressed
07:47the need to halt israel's aggression towards lebanon after the announcement was made on the 14th of june
07:54the day on which the u.s president turned 80 trump embarked on his visit to france where he will
08:00attend
08:00the g7 summit he's also expected to meet prime minister narendra modhi on the sidelines of the
08:05summit a host of countries welcomed the deal china hopes the deal will be signed as planned and a safe
08:11and free passage through the strait of hormones will be restored as soon as possible british prime
08:17minister kirstama congratulated u.s president trump on securing a deal with iran saying it was vital now
08:24that all parties seized the opportunity french president emmanuel macron and european commission
08:30president ursula von der leyen to welcome the deal according to a joint statement the uk france
08:38germany and at least said they were prepared to lift sanctions imposed on iran i do think it's a big
08:45moment for the united states of america thanks of course to the president's leadership and the hard
08:49work of the entire team uh three things that i i think are important for the american people just
08:54to appreciate about what this deal does for all of us as americans number one this is the immediate
09:00opening of the straits of hormuz and of course the lifting of the naval blockade that we've had
09:05on iran along with it the number two thing that it means is that iran will never have a nuclear
09:11weapon
09:11and not just pursue a nuclear weapon but procure or try to buy a nuclear weapon as well that's built
09:17into
09:17this agreement and then the third thing is and this only happens to be clear if iran delivers on
09:24their promise and so there's an approach here where we verify and where there are real benefits so long
09:29as iran meets their end of the obligation but if the iranians comply with his deal
09:34it is going to fundamentally transform the middle east for the next 50 years
09:39donald trump may have secured what many would call a diplomatic win with a potential iran peace deal
09:45but this story has layers what looks like a breakthrough between countries quickly turns
09:50into a political headache inside israel national security minister itamar ben gavir has already
09:56rejected the agreement putting benjamin netanyahu in a difficult spot suddenly this is not just about
10:03iran lebanon or security it is also about coalition politics political survival and competing interests at
10:10home within israel when foreign policy and domestic politics collide which layer matters most to
10:17netanyahu israel's interests or keeping his government alive president trump appears close to securing a
10:25peace agreement with iran reports suggest the deal could also affect israel and lebanon sounds like the
10:31kind of headline diplomats frame on their office walls except israel's national security minister itamar
10:38ben gaver looked at the deal and basically said not so fast ben gaver rejected it outright suddenly the
10:46spotlight shifted from washington and tehran to one uncomfortable question in jerusalem or tel aviv
10:54what will netanyahu do now can he support a deal that angers one of the most important figures keeping his
11:01government alive and more importantly is netanyahu making decisions based on israel's interests
11:07or his own political survival to understand the problem we first need to understand the numbers
11:13israel's government is not a one-party government it is a coalition think of it like a tower built from
11:20several blocks remove one important block and the whole thing wobbles remove the wrong block and it falls
11:28netanyahu's coalition controls 64 seats in israel's 120 seat parliament a majority requires 61 seats
11:37bengavir's party controls six seats so what happens if bengavir walks away the coalition drops below the
11:46majority line simple math brutal consequences that is why bengavir is not just another minister he is one
11:53of the people holding the keys to netanyahu's political future and bengavir has made his position
12:00crystal clear according to his own statements trump's agreement does not bind israel he argues israel is
12:07an independent country and should not compromise on what he sees as its security interests he rejects
12:14withdrawing from territories captured in lebanon and opposes any arrangement he believes limits israeli
12:21freedom of action president trump begs to differ however whether one agrees with him or not is
12:29almost beside the point can netanyahu afford to ignore him the evidence suggests the answer is no
12:36this is not the first time bengavir has used his leverage in the past he threatened to leave the
12:42coalition in 2025 he actually resigned over disagreements related to the gaza cease file
12:48before later returning every time he moves toward the exit door alarms start ringing inside the government
12:55why because netanyahu does not have many alternatives could he simply build a different coalition not easily
13:03could he risk elections that is where things become even more interesting recent polling numbers paint a
13:11difficult picture for netanyahu's coalition itself multiple surveys suggest that if elections were held
13:16soon the current coalition would struggle badly and could lose power and when he does lose power
13:23he might be facing prison time for corruption charges and that is the heart of the controversy
13:30supporters of netanyahu would argue that keeping a stable government during a tense regional situation is
13:36itself in national interest they would say experienced leadership matters and coalition management is
13:42simply part of governing critics see something different they argue that netanyahu's political
13:49calculations have become deeply intertwined with every major decision in their view preserving the
13:55coalition often appears just as important as pursuing policy goals
14:01which interpretation is correct based on the available facts both arguments exist but one fact is undeniable
14:10coalition survival constantly sits in the background of every major decision has israel reached a
14:16point where its most controversial politicians are also its most influential again look at the numbers
14:22ben gavir and finance minister bezalel smothrich represent a relatively small segment of israeli
14:29politics compared to the country as a whole yet their influence inside the coalition is enormous
14:36why because influence is not always about popularity sometimes influence comes from leverage
14:43a passenger sitting in the back of a bus has little control but a passenger holding the steering wheel has
14:49plenty ben gavir may not control israeli politics by himself but he holds enough seats to threaten the
14:57coalition's survival that gives him influence far beyond the size of his party and that reality creates
15:03a strange paradox the politicians who generate the most controversy are often the same politicians the
15:10government can least afford to lose that brings us back to netanyahu what will he do the answer is
15:17probably the same thing he has done throughout much of his political career balance competing pressures
15:22avoid coalition collapse and search for a path that keeps both his government and his political future
15:28intact but balancing acts become harder when every side pulls in a different direction trump wants a deal
15:36bengavi rejects it the opposition attacks it the coalition depends on fragile numbers and netanyahu stands in
15:44the middle so is netanyahu acting for israel's interests or for his own political survival
15:51the reality is that israeli politics may no longer allow a clean separation between those two questions
15:57for netanyahu the survival of the government and the survival of his leadership have become closely
16:03connected and that may be the biggest story of all not the peace deal itself not trump's announcement
16:09not even ben gavir's rebellion the real story is that one of israel's most powerful leaders now governs
16:17through a coalition with the most controversial voices may also be the most indispensable
16:24the meeting on the sidelines of the g7 summit between u.s president donald trump and indian
16:29premier and narendra modi comes at a moment when the india-us relationship is expanding in scope
16:35but tightening in pressure points trade negotiations are moving strategic coordination remains strong but
16:42beneath that surface friction is building across tariffs visas energy security and now a far more
16:49sensitive issue deaths of indian sailors and u.s military operations in the gulf let's start with
16:55the economic agenda both sides are working towards the first tranche of a bilateral trade agreement
17:01expected around mid july the goal is to stabilize economic ties and unlock market access india is
17:08pushing for preferential tariff treatment for its exports it is also seeking relief from proposed
17:14additional u.s tariffs linked to labor compliance allegations charges new delhi has firmly rejected
17:21the united states meanwhile is pushing in the opposite direction on several fronts
17:26greater access to indian markets lower trade barriers and alignment on regulatory standards a proposed
17:3412.5 percent tariff on imports from india and other countries justified by washington on labor related
17:41grounds remains a major sticking point india sees this as an unacceptable pressure in a negotiating framework
17:49that is still unfinished then comes the second pressure point h1b visas this is not a symbolic issue for
17:56india it is structural any tightening directly impacts thousands of indian professionals in the united states
18:02of america it affects technology flows service export and long-term mobility of skilled workers that is
18:10why new delhi is expected to push back firmly in his meeting with the president of the united states of
18:17america
18:17making it very clear that visa restrictions cannot become a lever for broader trade pressure
18:24and india's position here is increasingly clear it cannot afford to treat skilled mobility as a secondary issue
18:31if h1b rules are tightened significantly it does not just affect individuals it reshapes the entire
18:38india u.s economic equation and that is why this g7 meeting is not just about negotiation it is about
18:45setting limits there is also a third economic layer energy the united states is expected to discuss broader
18:53energy cooperation including diversification of supply chains and potential engagement involving venezuelan
19:00oil markets but india enters this conversation with a firm structural position already in place its continued
19:06purchase of russian oil and this is where india is expected to hold its ground despite western
19:14pressure russian crude remains a key component of india's energy security strategy it is not just about
19:20pricing it is about stability for india abrupt shifts away from russian oil would mean exposure to
19:27volatile global energy markets and rising domestic inflation that is why new delhi is likely to
19:33maintain its current stance even as it expands engagement with the united states and other suppliers
19:39but while trade visas and energy dominate the formal agenda an entirely different issue is shaping the
19:45emotional and political backdrop of this meeting the deaths of indian sailors in the gulf region during
19:52u.s central command operations three merchant vessels were involved marivax city be sete bellow and jalveer
20:01they were stuck in separate incidents on the 8th 10th and 11th of june in one of those strikes the
20:08sete bellow was hit by hellfire missiles the vessel was engulfed in fire engine rooms burned out and three
20:15indian crew members were killed a chief engineer an engine fitter and a deck cadet the united states
20:23maintains that these ships were violating a blockade linked to the iran conflict and were involved in
20:28transporting sanctioned oil but ship operators dispute parts of that account they argue at least one
20:35vessel was stationary for days they say there was no clear warning communication and they questioned
20:41whether civilian merchant ships should be treated as legitimate targets in such a high-risk maritime
20:46corridor india's official response has been measured but firm in tone the ministry of external affairs
20:52condemned repeated attacks on shipping in the region and linked the crisis to ongoing regional conflict
20:58but it notably did not mention the united states that silence reflects diplomacy but it also creates
21:05political pressure at home where questions are being asked about accountability and clarity
21:10external affairs minister dr jay shankar has already raised the issue directly with u.s secretary of
21:15state marco rubio india objected strongly to the strikes and raised concerns about civilian safety
21:21in international waters but washington's response has been equally firm rubio has made it clear that the
21:27united states will not tolerate violations of what it describes as the blockade in the strait of homos
21:33signaling no immediate softening of its operational posture and now this issue enters the g7
21:40meeting indirectly through the modi trump encounter because for india this is no longer a background
21:46incident it is a test of whether civilian lives are protected under alliance frameworks or whether they
21:52are absorbed into strategic calculations this is why many analysts argue that prime minister modi
21:59cannot afford to underplay this issue it is not about confrontation it is about signaling that indian
22:05citizens cannot become collateral damage in contested military enforcement operations even when the united
22:11states is a strategic partner so the g7 movement becomes a balancing act on multiple fronts india will
22:19push for fair trade terms it will resist tighter h-1b visa restrictions it will maintain its position on
22:26russian oil purchases as a matter of energy security and it will seek a clear serious engagement on the
22:33deaths of its sailors in the gulf because in the end this meeting is not just about strengthening ties
22:39it is about defining boundaries within them how far cooperation goes where india draws its red lines and
22:46whether strategic partnership can coexist with accountability when civilian lives are at stake
22:55that's all in this edition of statecraft but before we go most people celebrate their 80th birthday
23:00with cakes and candles but president donald trump celebrated his with the ufc cage fight on the
23:06white house lawns thousands watched as fighters traded punches just a few feet away from the president
23:13most people celebrate turning 80 with cakes candles and family photos trump celebrated it with
23:20knockouts watch the video enjoy goodbye and take care
23:35on the white house lawn on the 250th birthday of america this really is
24:03too much of a responsibility to hold out but again i hope you will gather there are an
24:05good news that we will see you guys this is a great news that everybody wins the world
24:07we are making sure this is a great news here today
24:07and we'll be happy to enjoy the episode of the victory in the moment
24:07victory is now is a great and won't be defeated
24:07victory is now is the very powerful victory, but Oklahoma is really not it
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