00:00He's Steve Erlinger. He's the Chief Diplomatic Correspondent in Europe, The New York Times.
00:05Appreciate, Steve, you joining us on the show tonight. Thank you very much.
00:09I want to ask you, how do you read these mixed messages coming from the White House?
00:14At one level, Donald Trump is saying, I'm open to a ceasefire, at the same time,
00:18threatening to obliterate Iran if the Strait of Hormuz is not reopened.
00:23What do you make out of it?
00:25Well, this is typical Trump, I have to say. It depends on how he's feeling,
00:30but he likes to negotiate with a lot of threats and then looks for a deal.
00:36So he's the sort of person who will throw a grenade into a pool of water and see what happens
00:42and then work from what results.
00:45So my sense, my reporting is that Trump really wants to get out of this war.
00:50he's had enough of it. It's costing too much money. It's costing too much in terms of energy prices,
00:58oil markets, allied confidence. So he's looking for a ceasefire.
01:02I'm not sure Iran wants to give him a ceasefire.
01:05I think Iran feels that in some weird way it has the upper hand with the Strait of Hormuz.
01:12Now, if they can negotiate somehow a deal on Hormuz, sort of the way Turkey did on the Dardanelles,
01:22that would allow Iran to make some money from transiting, then maybe Iran would agree to a ceasefire.
01:37So you're making an important point. You seem to suggest that you get a sense that Donald Trump wants an
01:43early ceasefire.
01:44Am I correct? That's your sense that he now wants a way out.
01:49But the Iranians may be the ones digging their heels in. Is that what you're getting a sense of?
01:57Yes. Yes, very, very much so. Because the Iranians have found a pressure point that hurts for Trump.
02:05They think they can get some concessions out of the Americans too.
02:10And of course, the one crucial issue we haven't discussed, of course, I'm sure you and your listeners know what
02:17it is.
02:18It's the nuclear issue. It's the 440 kilos of near-weapons-grade uranium that Iran still has.
02:29And this war so far has done nothing to secure that uranium or to do a deal to take it
02:38out of Iran.
02:39And this was supposed to be one of the prime strategic aims of the American side of this war.
02:47So it feels a bit like Trump has gotten himself into a position where he is limiting his strategic aims
02:57now
02:57and shortening them so he can somehow declare that he's done the job sufficiently.
03:08You know, Stephen, you wrote an article, No Good Way Out, in the New York Times,
03:12where you outlined four main options available to the president one month into the war.
03:17Sending in ground forces, seizing Khark Island as a bargaining chip as part of that,
03:23declaring victory and withdrawing, negotiating a deal with what remains of the Iranian regime,
03:28or continuing sustained bombing until Iran capitulates or collapses.
03:33Based on what's happened in the last 48 hours, which of these four options is appearing more likely?
03:40The president is also going to address the American nation at 6.30 a.m. India time.
03:45So which of these four options is he more likely to look at?
03:48Well, it is very hard to know what Trump is actually going to say.
03:53But my sense is he is looking for a way out.
03:59If there is some way that he can negotiate an opening of the Strait of Hormuz,
04:04which of course was open before the war started,
04:07and some agreement on Iran's part to at least restore international inspection of all its nuclear program,
04:17then I think he would say, we've destroyed their navy,
04:22we've destroyed a lot of their ballistic missile production, we've knocked them back.
04:26If the nuclear thing is in control and the Hormuz is open, then we've done our job.
04:34And if we have to go back and bomb Iran again, we can do it later.
04:39I think that's where he's ending up.
04:41But again, with Donald Trump, it's very hard to know.
04:48What we are also seeing in the last 24 hours is a further rupturing of that alliance, Steve,
04:53between the European allies in NATO and the American president.
04:59Donald Trump even threatening that he could walk out of NATO after the war
05:03because the European allies haven't cooperated with him.
05:06Do you believe he's serious?
05:07Do we take Donald Trump seriously when he makes these comments?
05:12Well, I do take him seriously.
05:14I mean, this has been something he's talked about for decades, frankly.
05:18John Bolton, who was his national security advisor in his first term,
05:22said if Trump is re-elected, he would pull out of the NATO alliance.
05:29That hasn't happened yet.
05:32Rutta, the head of the alliance, the secretary general,
05:35has worked hard to keep Trump on side.
05:38The Europeans are spending more money.
05:40There are reasons why Trump should be happy with NATO.
05:45But what he doesn't understand is NATO is a transatlantic alliance.
05:50It has nothing to do with the Middle East.
05:52It has refused the countries of NATO.
05:55It's not about NATO.
05:56The countries of NATO have refused to enter a war that they consider a war of choice,
06:04not a defensive war, a war that many in Europe consider illegal,
06:09and they don't want to get involved with it.
06:13Now, they have been useful, all these bases in Europe,
06:18useful in refueling American planes,
06:21and they've tried to draw a distinction between helping with the defense
06:26of the Strait of Hormuz and offensive capabilities.
06:33This has frustrated Trump no end.
06:35He thinks they're just not there for him.
06:38He says they should open the Strait of Hormuz.
06:40I don't know how, even though the U.S. Navy isn't doing it.
06:45He lives in his own world, frankly,
06:49and it's very frustrating for his allies who really try to keep him sweet.
06:55Sometimes I think he's taking out his frustrations about the war on European allies.
07:02It is possible.
07:03I don't think he will pull out of NATO.
07:06He's threatened to do it many, many times.
07:08And if he even says he will, it would take an act of Congress,
07:14and I don't think Congress would support it, and it would take another year.
07:18But the big question is, does Trump's words make Article 5,
07:25the commitment to collective defense, hollow?
07:29And I think people have felt it's been pretty hollow for a long time now.
07:39My final question and a quick answer there, Steve, to this one.
07:43Put on your forecaster's hat as someone who's tracked diplomacy over the years.
07:48Do you see an early end to the war now?
07:51Has anything happened in the last 48, 72 hours to suggest we could be seeing
07:55an earlier end to the war than predicted by many others?
08:00Yes, I do.
08:01I would give it another week.
08:03Now, I may be wrong, but I think Trump really wants to get out
08:07and will find some good reason to stop the American side of the war.
08:13And if he stops, I think Israel will have to stop also.
08:20Okay.
08:21I'm going to leave it there.
08:22Of course, as you said, predicting what Donald Trump does
08:24or does not do is extremely hazardous.
08:27But for joining me there and giving some sense of what those mixed messages
08:31that Donald Trump is sending out today really mean,
08:34appreciate your joining us.
08:35Steve L. Langer of the New York Times,
08:37their chief diplomatic correspondent for Europe.
08:39Thank you very much.
08:40Thank you very much.
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