00:00We're going to have a severe weather outbreak Wednesday into Wednesday night across the Midwest
00:05and I think we're going to see widespread damaging winds and I think there's going to be a slew of
00:11tornadoes. I want to show you our risk map but I do want to let you know I have no
00:15doubt that we're
00:16going to be updating this as we go through the day on Monday here. We already have a moderate
00:22risk out in this area from south of Chicago from Kansas City, St. Louis, Indianapolis just south
00:29of Chicago. I suspect what when we have hail flooding isolated tornadoes locally damaging
00:36winds. Now listen we're early in the process. I suspect what we're going to do is we're going to
00:40take this farther north. I suspect what we're going to do is we're going to extend this moderate
00:45somewhere like here and I think what we're going to end up doing is having some kind of high risk
00:52that goes somewhere like this. That's what I suspect we're going to do. We want to make sure that the
00:58modeling continues to be consistent but everything that I see right now and again this will be a high
01:05this will end up being a moderate and this will end up being a sum. Everything I look at right
01:10now
01:10tells me that this is going to be a severe weather outbreak on Wednesday. I'm going to show you why
01:17with some of the modeling here. Pretty quiet right now over the next couple of days but let me show
01:23you
01:23how things are going to be changing moving forward here. I want to get I'm going to show you the
01:28European. Let me put you in a two box here really quick. So this is what we're looking at on
01:34on Tuesday.
01:35We do have this other front coming through here. This little piece of energy there's going to be some
01:40severe weather in the Midwest on on Tuesday. I think it's isolated spotty. I don't think it's a huge deal
01:47but then we ramp up on Wednesday. Watch what happens here. The focus is going to be this energy
01:54coming across Alberta and Saskatchewan Tuesday night. We're going to get in the Wednesday morning.
02:01Wednesday look at this Wednesday afternoon and then Wednesday night. You close an upper low here
02:06at 552 decameters. That is very low for the month of June. Look at the energy in here the red
02:15yellow and
02:16orange. You've got tremendous energy and and what else is the system is strengthening as it moves
02:23across the lake Wednesday Wednesday night. Now that's one way to look at this. You see all the red
02:28yellows and oranges. The other thing I love looking at is the low-level jet. That's the the wind profile
02:34at around 5,000 feet. It's approximate but a couple of things we're going to look at. I want you
02:40to notice
02:40the strength of it and I want you to notice how it's changing with height with with uh through the
02:47period. So here's the low-level jet. Now this is early Wednesday morning in here across Nebraska and
02:53Kansas. Watch what it does. Wednesday uh around 2 a.m. Wednesday morning. Look at that change and then
03:00it gets even scarier. Watch it go from 8 o'clock to 2 o'clock. Look at that low-level
03:06jet in here
03:06pointing in here. Now the other thing is it's increasing right? So it's not only moving fast
03:12it's increasing. It's an extra punch. Gets even stronger Wednesday evening. Watch what this does
03:19Wednesday evening. Look at that. You're at 70 to 75 knots in here as it goes across Michigan and
03:27Indiana. That's a heck of a lot of energy. Let me show you the surface map. The other thing I
03:34want you
03:35to notice is this. Look at the pressure of this storm. 985 millibars. This is going to go across
03:42Wisconsin and Michigan well below 990 millibars here. This could be record low pressure for Wisconsin
03:52and Michigan for the month of June. And remember the lower the pressure the strong the uh the stronger
04:00the storm and the more wind energy associated with it. This is going to be a nasty storm. And on
04:06its
04:07southern outside there's going to be a tremendous amount of energy. Watch the dew point temperatures
04:12come up too. Here we go. We start Wednesday morning. Look at this. Wednesday morning, Wednesday afternoon,
04:19Wednesday evening. You have a surge of 60, 65 degree dew point temperatures coming northward here into the
04:25midwest where you have this strengthening low level jet. The other thing going on here is you've got
04:31this warm front in here too. In here it's like here. Now I always talk about lifting warm fronts.
04:39Watch this warm front lift. This is in the afternoon and then in the evening the warm front looks like
04:45it's come right in here. The reason I talk about lifting warm fronts on the southern side of the
04:50lifting warm front. What do you end up getting? You get what I call directional wind shear. That's the
04:57changing of wind direction with height. This is what it looks like as you go forward. So you see
05:03in this case east south east southeast at the surface southeast at 3,000 south at 6,000 feet 9
05:11,000 feet
05:11out of the west southwest. And it's this rotating rotation of wind direction with height which causes the
05:18thunderstorm to spin. I think you're going to get that south of the warm front. I also think you're
05:22going to get a lot of this straight line wind damage here. This is where you get unidirectional
05:28from the surface through a large depth of the atmosphere. That's going to give you damaging wind
05:33gusts. So I think we have both of these ingredients as we go through Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday
05:39night. I mean that is just a scary setup here. The limiting factor is the warmth. How far north does
05:48the warmth get? I want to show you the late. These are the temperatures right in here Wednesday
05:53afternoon. So your 70 area is in here. This may be the saving grace for southern Michigan
06:01and southern Wisconsin that you never quite get into the warmth. That's why we're only going to have
06:06a summer risk for you. But boy oh boy you look at these temperatures in here in this zone in
06:11here
06:12from Missouri into Indiana. You're in the 70s with a low level jet in here. I think when push comes
06:23to
06:23shove this is going to be a big severe weather outbreak Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday evening.
06:30And I'll tell you what it's going to start right from the get-go. It is not going to wait
06:35until the
06:35afternoon. I think we're looking at this Wednesday Wednesday night. Widespread damaging winds and I
06:42think there's a slew of tornadoes.
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