00:00All right, the snow is falling, but the blizzard will be tonight.
00:06Thanks for joining us here on the feed.
00:08Just a very intense storm that we're going to be looking at here as we go through tonight and tomorrow.
00:15I want to show you the area that is going to be impacted the most by this, and there it
00:23is, in the dark blue.
00:24That's where you're looking at the blizzard, coastal Maine, Boston, New York City, Philadelphia, Atlantic City,
00:32and all the way down here in the eastern Delaware and Maryland, you will get a blizzard.
00:38What is a blizzard, by the way?
00:39Three consecutive hours of a quarter-mile visibility in snow and blowing snow with sustained winds or gusts of at
00:48least 35 miles per hour.
00:50Those conditions for three hours, I think they're easily going to be met.
00:53Now, when we left you on Friday, we knew it was going to be a close call.
00:57I want to go back and show you what we were looking at here.
01:02And for those that follow the modeling, this is a huge victory for the computer model that probably gets the
01:10most negative or criticism.
01:13The American model wasn't perfect, but it's going to end up being much, much better.
01:18I want to show you what we were looking at.
01:20We always look at the 500 millibar here.
01:21So, this was the American model early Friday morning.
01:27And notice this, upper low here.
01:30Remember we talked about the key was the upper low.
01:32And you can see that it's not only that, an upper low, but three closed contours.
01:38I'll explain the importance of that in a minute.
01:41That was the American model.
01:43This was the European model.
01:47Notice, no closed contours.
01:49Not a big upper low.
01:51That was the difference.
01:53That was the difference between the American and the European model.
01:57I must say, the other computer guidance also had the same thing.
02:02Now, models don't make forecasts.
02:07Meteorologists do.
02:07You cannot blame the models.
02:10But, I want to show you where we were at.
02:12We were concerned that with the American model, the only one showing this, it was prudent not to buy into
02:20that totally.
02:21What is going to end up happening?
02:23This is the European model this morning.
02:25For the same time period, Monday morning.
02:27There it is.
02:28Looks very similar.
02:29There.
02:30Your American model, that was from Friday morning.
02:35This is the European model this morning.
02:39Okay.
02:40With that in mind, the way I use a guide for predicting snow is, I was taught to this by
02:51a meteorologist here at AccuWeather called Dale Mohler.
02:54Every closed contour, the 500 millibar, is a foot of snow.
03:00It's a guide.
03:01So, let's go back to this at 7 a.m.
03:04Let's go back.
03:05So, every closed contour is a foot.
03:07This would suggest the foot line goes west of Philadelphia.
03:11This is the, let's go to the European model for the heck of it.
03:19So, this would suggest the foot line's back here west of Philadelphia.
03:23This is the two-foot line in here.
03:26And then, the three-foot line would be out the sea.
03:29You see that?
03:30Three, you've got a closed contour here.
03:34One foot, two foot, and then the third closed contour is still offshore.
03:38So, there would be no three feet.
03:40That's the European model.
03:41This is the American model, by the way.
03:43And, you know, obviously, the American model has been better with this.
03:47The American model has, where are we?
03:51There we go.
03:54Now, let's go to the height of the storm, 1 o'clock.
03:57This has one, two.
04:02This suggests that the upper end of this storm is three feet southeast of the Boston area.
04:09It's a guide.
04:13But, if you use that guide, and we'll go back to when it goes, 1 o'clock, that says, now,
04:20I think that's Baltimore, Washington, D.C.
04:22You're going to have enough precipitation for a foot of snow, but there's going to be too much rain.
04:26So, we are talking about precipitation.
04:28You have enough precipitation.
04:30The foot line would be here.
04:31You are wasting some.
04:33A little bit of rain this morning, but the storm gets going tonight.
04:36There's the two foot.
04:37So, this would suggest two feet from Long Island all the way back towards Jersey Shore.
04:43And then, when you go forward and it strengthens again, you get a third contour in the southeastern New England.
04:49So, that gives you a starting, starting process that, you know what, based on this, New York and Philadelphia are
04:58going to get a foot of snow.
04:59The two feet of snow is going to get in the Long Island and at least in the southeastern New
05:03England.
05:04And if we get a three feet, it's going to be south and east of Boston.
05:08That's the guide.
05:08But, I want to show you one more thing.
05:11I've learned this over the years.
05:14The intensification and where it intensifies is important as well.
05:18This is the GFS model, the American model.
05:229.91 here, this is by 7 o'clock tonight.
05:27And by 7 a.m. tomorrow morning, it's at 9.69.
05:32From here to here, it begins to intensify.
05:37Notice what happens after 7 a.m.
05:399.69, you notice that?
05:42Then it deepens a little bit, 9.67, and then it actually begins to lower pressure.
05:48So, from here to here, it intensifies rapidly.
05:53And during intensification process, you get heavy snow.
05:57I would really watch this area in here.
06:00I think this is where you're going to get the full fury of this storm.
06:05Where you're going to get tremendous amounts of snow rates, 2 to 4 inches per hour.
06:10And you're probably, you're going to get whiteouts, and the snow is going to be intense.
06:15And when you look at our snowfall total.
06:21When you look at the snowfall total.
06:27Here it is.
06:29That's why this area, from the Jersey Shore, and it could even be Atlantic City, Long Island,
06:37this area in here is the absolute worst of the storm.
06:42And you're going to see extreme snowfall rates, 3 to 4 inches per hour.
06:48And a blizzard, although blizzard can occur all the way back toward Philly in New York.
06:52Stay with us.
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