00:00All right, we've had a break from severe weather this week, but on the feed, we're going to talk
00:03about the return to severe weather, but I don't see any widespread severe weather outbreaks here
00:10over the next three to four days. We may have to worry about the middle part of the week.
00:14Now, there's going to be some severe weather, but I just don't think it's going to be widespread.
00:18Let me show you what it's going to look like here over the next few days. We begin on Thursday.
00:23There it is across the Plains states, mostly wind and hail with this one, wind and hail,
00:27wind and hail, Thursday, Friday, Saturday, any tornadoes are going to be isolated.
00:32And the severe weather threats continue even beyond this time period. Take a look. Here's
00:37what we have for you on Sunday, or I should say, yeah, on Sunday, again, an elongated area. But as
00:43you're going to see, there's not a lot of energy with this right now. There's enough warmth and
00:49enough humidity, but not a lot of energy for widespread severe weather. And even as we head
00:54into Monday, same story, it's an elongated area from the Midwest toward Texas. Can there be isolated
01:00severe weather, including tornadoes? Yes, but nothing widespread. Now, we're going to keep an eye
01:06on Tuesday. As we get in the middle part of next week, and I'll show you why. Now, here's where
01:11the
01:11energy is coming. It's off the West Coast. This is what's going to produce the severe weather here
01:16over the weekend, this upper low. But as you're going to see, it's going to weaken. Now, middle part of
01:21next week, we have energy in the Gulf of Alaska. That's going to come southeast. Our first system
01:27in the plains, this has more energy with it than our storm off the West Coast. It just doesn't have
01:34a lot of unstable air associated with it. Let me show you what I mean. Let's go to the modeling
01:40here,
01:40and I'm going to show you the tools that I use as we try to predict this severe weather here
01:46over
01:46the next couple of days. So, let's talk about this system coming in down across the Canadian
01:51prairies. Here it comes as we head into Thursday and Friday. A lot of energy with this. See how that
01:56swings through? And there's a frontal boundary. And even this, this is always a little concerning to
02:01me. Thursday night, Friday morning, you see this little low pressure system here? We call it a
02:06triple point low because you have a cold front, you have a warm front here, cold front here, storm here,
02:12cold front. We call this a triple point low. And oftentimes, you can get tornadoes with these
02:18if you have a right amount of air. You see how you have that low pressure system going across
02:21Illinois? But as I take a look, a closer look at this, while we look at the low-level jet
02:27for
02:27energy, and look, you have a pretty strong low-level jet here showing you you have energy in the
02:31atmosphere. You see this? As we get in the late Thursday night, Friday morning, what you are lacking
02:38is moisture. And dew point temperature is only in the, you see this dew point temperature? Middle
02:4350s. Now, if you had 65 or 70 degree dew points coming in here, I'd be a little more worried.
02:49But I think you have the energy, but you don't have the moisture. So that's why I'm not too worried
02:53about this area as we get into Friday. But as mentioned, we're also tracking that system off
03:00the West Coast. And little pieces start coming out. Here's one on Thursday and Friday. You see
03:06that? Not a lot of energy. Not a lot of energy. But we do have thunderstorms posted on Thursday and
03:13Friday. And let me show you why I'm not too worried. While you certainly have Thursday and Friday,
03:18you've got plenty of moisture coming in and out of the Gulf. Look at it certainly by Friday.
03:22You've got all this energy coming out of the Gulf of Mexico, a lot of this moisture. There's just
03:28not a lot of energy associated with this. You go back to the 500 millibar here. What do you have
03:34Thursday and Friday? Not much. Little pieces, but not a lot. Another way to look at it is the low
03:41-level
03:41jet Thursday and Friday. You see, you've got the low-level jet up here showing you a lot of wind
03:47energy, but not much in Texas. And even on Saturday, where's a lot of the energy? Up here. Up here
03:54across the Plains states. That's why we have some risk up there. But when you look at, well, okay,
04:01do you have the energy? Do you have the moisture up there on Friday? Look at our dew point temperatures
04:06up on Friday. Not really. See, you've got the energy Friday and Saturday. There it is, Saturday night.
04:13All the energy across the Plains, but all the moisture is down in Texas. So where you have the energy,
04:20you don't have the moisture. And where you have the moisture, you don't have the energy. Nothing is
04:25coming together as we get in the Saturday and even Sunday. And if I go back to this, you'll notice
04:32that
04:32our severe weather threat on Sunday, that's why we only have a some risk. You see that? Because
04:40not all of the ingredients are coming together. Now, take a look. There's Monday. All right. There's
04:47what we have on Monday. Again, it's a some risk. Why don't we have a moderate? Well, let's take a
04:52look at it. What are we going on on Monday with energy? You do have some. You do have some.
04:57But
04:57what's happening is this upper low off the California coast is going to weaken. Watch me
05:03play it forward. Friday, you see how it weakens? Because that other piece of energy in the Gulf of
05:07Alaska follows it. So what happens is it comes out in pieces. So instead of getting one big day of
05:14severe weather, you just get pieces of severe weather. That's it. Look at Monday. There's that
05:18piece of energy. You can see models showing showers and thunderstorms in here. But when you take a look
05:24at the energy and dew points. So Monday, you've got plenty of moisture. Look at our dew point
05:30temperatures in the 60s in here. You see? But when you look at the wind energy, there's just not a
05:36lot.
05:37There's just not a lot. Now, one thing I think you do have to worry about is this next piece
05:45coming
05:45in across the Gulf of Alaska. There it is. See this in here? This is the one to keep an
05:50eye on.
05:51Because as we go forward, watch it come across the country. And you start talking Tuesday and
05:56Wednesday. This is where I start getting worried as we get into Wednesday. Tuesday, let me go back to
06:06this. Tuesday, we still only have some risk. Once again, no moderate. Why? Well, when you look at the
06:13ingredients here, you have some energy coming out here across the Midwest. But again, as you look at
06:22the low-level jet, it's weakening during the day. On Tuesday, you have the moisture, but the energy is
06:26weakening. But here's the time to watch Wednesday into Thursday. You see this? All of a sudden, you have
06:34that energy coming out. Look at the increasing low-level jet across Indiana, Tennessee, and you
06:40have higher dew point air. That's the time frame to watch for more severe weather than what we're
06:46going to see over the next couple of days. Middle part of next week, and that's the feed.
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