00:00All right, get ready. More chill on the way from the lakes toward the northeast.
00:04Now, we're going to see this problem through the middle part of May.
00:08Not that we won't have days where we're going to have temperatures above the historical average,
00:13but more days will be below about 5 to 10 here.
00:16And once again, risks for frost in the Midwest and the Appalachians.
00:22And again, at times with each cold front, there will be some rain.
00:26We could use the rain. We're going to get more as we head toward the weekend here.
00:31And by the way, real quick, if you have a big dip in the jet stream in the east,
00:35guess what happens once we get toward the western United States?
00:38You tend to have the opposite. We're going to start warming things up here in the west.
00:43We've had a cool period, but it's going to warm up this weekend.
00:46And once we get this upper high to build, we're going to start introducing fire dangers in California.
00:51And any wind that blows, especially if we get any Santa Ana's, any offshore flow,
00:57that becomes a real problem in California.
00:59So that's another thing to keep an eye on here.
01:02But I want to show you what's coming here as we head into the weekend here.
01:08We're going to be looking at another soaking rain event here.
01:13Let me show you what's going to happen.
01:14Let me go to my two box here.
01:16Here we go.
01:16All right. Watch what happens here as we get into Friday.
01:19We have this frontal boundary. Here it is.
01:21This is going to stall.
01:22And then what we're going to see is additional energy dropping south and east.
01:26You know what this would be a great pattern for in the wintertime?
01:31Snow.
01:31Of course, we never saw that pattern most of this winter, except a few instances.
01:37But watch what happens.
01:38So you've got this piece of energy.
01:40You see this a lot in the wintertime.
01:42You get this upper low, closed, where?
01:44Over Hudson Bay.
01:46And then you have energy that comes southward.
01:48Right?
01:49Watch how this digs as we head into the weekend.
01:51There it goes.
01:52Watch right there.
01:54Right in here.
01:56Here it goes.
01:57Now, with that, you get a storm to form on that boundary, which is stalled across Texas here.
02:03And with the digging jet stream, guess what?
02:06This goes northward here.
02:08Now, this is Sunday morning.
02:10Mother's Day in the east.
02:11You're probably going to be fine.
02:13Not so, though, in the Ohio Valley.
02:17Yeah, by the afternoon, the rain comes in.
02:19Chicago, it's a cool, wet day.
02:22All the way down toward the mid-south.
02:24But watch what this jet stream does.
02:26It just digs.
02:27Look at that.
02:28And what you do is you start getting the trough becoming what?
02:32What I call neutral tilt from north to south.
02:35So what that's going to do is that's going to guide that storm right up the coast.
02:38Now, if you had some cold air, you'd get some snow with this.
02:41You don't really have any.
02:42You know, I could see some snow ending in the Green and White Mountains, the Adirondacks.
02:47But this is a soaking rain as we head in this Sunday night, Monday, from the Delmarva Peninsula all the
02:54way up.
02:55Take a look at that.
02:56As we get into Monday, Monday morning, I think, get ready for travel delays.
03:03Rain will be ending in Philadelphia, but certainly not.
03:06New York City, Boston, it is a wet Monday morning.
03:10Then that storm goes by, and then we get a little shot of cooler air coming in on Tuesday.
03:15And look what's down the pike.
03:16Another shot of chillier air.
03:18Watch this.
03:19There we go.
03:20Another trough coming in as we get toward the end of the week.
03:23Now, we may have some better weather middle part of next week, but boy, what?
03:27Tell you what, early part of the week, it is wet.
03:29That's the European model.
03:30Let me show you the American model.
03:33Not much difference.
03:34Look at that.
03:34Big dip in the jet stream.
03:36Sunday afternoon, Sunday evening.
03:37There's your storm.
03:38Watch that come through the area.
03:40Soaking rain coming right up to East Coast as we get into Sunday and Monday.
03:45Now, I think there's enough cool air that we're not looking for much in the way of severe weather.
03:50But I'll tell you what, we're going to have to keep an eye on some things here late Sunday.
03:55Let me go back to the surface map here as we get into Sunday.
04:00Here it is.
04:00This area right in here.
04:02What I like to look at for severe weather is this line right here, the 570 line.
04:09You could infer warmth in here.
04:12I always look for the 570 line for enough warm for severe weather.
04:16Looks to me like we might get just warming up in here for coastal South Carolina, southern Georgia, and northern
04:25Florida.
04:26This is an area to watch.
04:27If we get some severe weather, that's where it would be.
04:30That would be late Sunday into Monday.
04:32By the way, this is some much-needed rain, not only in the GFS.
04:37This is the American model.
04:38Look at that coming in across the Carolinas.
04:41This won't end the drought, but it is going to improve things.
04:44And no matter what you look at, this is the American model.
04:46Let me take you to the, now that's the, that is the American model here.
04:52Soaking rain coming Sunday night into Monday on the American.
04:55European shows the same thing.
04:57So that's some good rain.
04:58The question is, can we get some severe weather with this?
05:00And I think the area to watch, as I mentioned, is going to be right in here.
05:04South Carolina, southern Georgia, and northern Florida.
05:07All right, let me show you why.
05:08I want to show some of the tools that I use.
05:10First of all, 500 millibar here.
05:12You've got energy coming right in here.
05:14You see that?
05:15This is Sunday night, Monday morning.
05:17Not a lot, but enough.
05:18You see the green and the yellow?
05:20There's enough energy.
05:21Do you have enough warmth?
05:23And do you have enough low-level moisture?
05:25Well, this is the temperature.
05:30Here it is Sunday afternoon.
05:32Yeah, you've got enough warmth here.
05:35Seventies?
05:36Seventies?
05:37Now, it does cool off a little bit here as we head toward the overnight hours,
05:41looking for middle seventies, lower to middle seventies.
05:44Now, once you get north of Columbia in the sixties,
05:47I don't think it's warm enough for severe weather in the Carolinas,
05:50but I do think in this area, certainly it's warm enough.
05:53As we head toward the evening hours, dew point temperatures are next.
05:58They're plenty warm.
05:59They're plenty high enough.
06:00You have the 60 degree dew point temperature all the way in the North Carolina.
06:03What about the low-level jet?
06:05I always talk about that.
06:06Watch it increase here Sunday night, right?
06:09There.
06:09See that?
06:10Now, this suggests you have enough energy in the North Carolina in this zone
06:14for some spotty, severe storms.
06:16You'll notice by Monday morning, a lot of the energy is offshore.
06:19So this would be late Sunday, Sunday night.
06:22I'd keep an eye on this area.
06:24Let's include southeastern North Carolina in the northern parts of Florida.
06:28If we get severe weather with this system, it'll be Sunday night, late Sunday, Sunday night.
06:34Let's go from southern North Carolina in the northern Florida.
06:37But the big story is going to be this, the soaking rain that is coming up the eastern seaboard.
06:43Look at that as we get in the Sunday night, Monday morning.
06:47And that's the feed.
06:48Get the umbrellas ready.
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