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00:00On the Western Hotline, Sam, are you betting tennis?
00:03No, I'm not.
00:04I can tell you who's favored.
00:06Alexander Zverev is about plus 140 to win the French Open.
00:11And then the next six guys I've never heard of.
00:13And Zverev is coming on now.
00:16So we could have an update to this by tonight.
00:19Well, funny enough, I'm sitting here and music is playing.
00:26Sam's on hold.
00:27We're about to start the segment.
00:28And what comes across my face on my Twitter feed, but an ESPN tweet featuring a three-home run performance
00:36by someone named Anthony Pack Jr. of the Texas Longhorns in the College World Series.
00:42And I do believe that was Sam's pick last week.
00:46And Mike, I think, tailed him on that.
00:48I, like an idiot, did not.
00:50I mean, whatever.
00:51They're pounding Holy Cross.
00:52So I don't know how much to make of it.
00:54I don't know how good Holy Cross is.
00:55But Texas in the College World Series so far looking pretty good, Sam.
00:59Yes.
01:00Good start, no doubt.
01:02I can tell you we did bet the over in that game today, which closed at 12 and a half.
01:06Whoa!
01:07And Texas got there by themselves.
01:10The thing about a team like Holy Cross, and not to dive into college baseball because nobody cares.
01:16Go on.
01:17Buffalo.
01:18But when Holy Cross' best pitcher can't make it out of the third inning, it doesn't get much better in
01:24the bullpen.
01:24So, I mean, this could realistically, if Texas wants to, Texas could win 24 to nothing.
01:29Their bracket is Holy Cross, maybe Cal Santa Barbara, and Tarleton or something like that.
01:36I mean, there's not a big name in the Austin regional.
01:39You'd have to like their chances of coming out of there, I guess.
01:41Yeah, well, I saw they were the third favorite, which, that sounds, that lines up with how you were talking
01:47last week.
01:48Their odds are a little shorter now that they've made it to this point, but it sounds about where we
01:53were at last week or where you were at.
01:54I can't claim any part of it except that I listened to you and put money on it.
01:58That's it.
01:59Can you imagine being a trader at DraftKings or FanDuel?
02:02Well, because we do this hit every week at 3.30.
02:05I'm just picturing being a trader at DraftKings after the weekly hit on this show, on this station, and somebody
02:12sitting at a desk goes,
02:13we're getting flooded in Buffalo again on Texas Longhorns' base.
02:19Or Chinese hockey or Chinese hockey or Tate Thompson hat tricks.
02:23Something.
02:24Yeah, that one day we all bet that horse in that race.
02:27We bet that horse from 9 to 1 to 3 to 1.
02:29Granted, the horse didn't win, but this show, as heard in the sounder, is Western New York's sports giant.
02:36So I wouldn't be surprised at all if we put a dent in the Texas liability.
02:43I can't believe that that would be true, but that would be very flattering.
02:47Yeah, that horse, that was a live horse race we lived through together on that one.
02:52Didn't turn out.
02:53Well, we had that moment together.
02:55That's all you're really looking for.
02:56What about World Cup, Sam?
02:58It's getting close.
02:59Are you in those streets?
03:02I am.
03:03We actually did a Bear Betts this week on Fox.
03:05We had Mo Adu on the show.
03:06He was awesome.
03:08You know, most analysts you talk to are saying the same thing.
03:12It's either Spain or France.
03:13I think there's a bet floating around.
03:15You can take Spain and France or the field.
03:18Now, personally, I would take the field.
03:21I bet some Portugal to win the World Cup.
03:23I think they have the best midfield of all.
03:25And I say that because my best soccer handicapper is that, again, I'm not handicapping soccer, nor am I handicapping
03:33the men's tennis that Mike talked about earlier.
03:36Those in the know think that if you can get away from the favorites, you could obviously find some value.
03:42And the one thing to understand is that Mbappe, who's arguably the best player in the world for France, he's
03:48going to play this World Cup with a hamstring injury.
03:50Now, that's not to say that they can't blow through the easy teams in their group.
03:55But I don't like betting favorites in these tournaments.
03:59A lot of times the favorites don't win.
04:01I mean, soccer teams choke.
04:02Ask England.
04:03I mean, they've been one of the top favorites every World Cup the last four World Cups.
04:08So, I like Portugal.
04:10We were looking at a guy to have the golden boot, which is the most goals.
04:16And we took the guy on Spain.
04:18He's like 18-1.
04:20Or he is Zabel.
04:22So, those are some bets I made.
04:23Portugal to win, about 10-1.
04:25And then Oyer's Zabel to have the most goals at 18-1.
04:29And then you look at, you know, the elephant in the room.
04:31The Americans are favored to win the group.
04:34What could possibly go wrong there?
04:35I was just going to ask you, like, is it how silly, how indulgent is throwing 20 bucks on the
04:44U.S. to win the whole thing?
04:45Oh, 20 bucks.
04:47Do it.
04:48The whole thing?
04:49Really?
04:49Yeah, I'm just asking.
04:51I'm just asking if it's, you know, you probably know you're not winning, but is it completely insane?
05:01No, there are worse things to do with 20 bucks, and we don't have to go into detail on that.
05:05I mean, I think we could all connect some dots there.
05:07They're 60-1.
05:08They're 70-1.
05:11Here's the thing, though.
05:11The problem with the U.S.A. price is that most of these bets are coming from the U.S
05:17.A.
05:17So you're never going to get a true price in this racket, right?
05:20I mean, the Americans should probably be 100-1.
05:23But because you have, you know, people like Bulldog saying, oh, I'll throw 20 bucks on it.
05:28Why not?
05:28Like, it just sort of cheapens the value on U.S.A.
05:32I think if you're looking to make a U.S.A. bet, though, bet them to make the semis at
05:399-1.
05:40Like, that's a smarter bet because then you can also hedge off that.
05:43Say they make the quarters with a chance to go to the semis.
05:46Then you could just bet the other side on the money line if you want to.
05:50I don't think they're winning.
05:51I would not make that bet.
05:53But U.S.A. to reach the quarters at 3-1 or to make the semis at 9-1, those
05:59are a lot more realistic.
06:00It's just hard to envision them winning so many high-level games in a row once we get to the
06:06knockout stages.
06:07Talking about the Bills' schedule earlier, Sam, you mentioned some interest in going to see the Bills play in Minnesota.
06:13That's in early November.
06:15Remember, their schedule, and I don't know how unusual this is.
06:18This is sort of what maybe the NFL schedule always looks like.
06:21But in the Bills' case, I think it's just loaded with fun, highlight-type games.
06:26The fact that they play five NFC games, you know, which is not abnormal.
06:31It's what they all would do.
06:33And all of them are in prime time, including Minnesota.
06:36That's a first for a team to play all their inter-conference games at night.
06:42There are more night games than ever, I suppose.
06:44But if you went into, and maybe you have, I think that you can do this, went into any teams
06:50week by week and just picked out a couple of games.
06:55I know Warren Sharpe does this, because one time we talked to him months before the season.
06:59He's like, go bet Indianapolis in week six or something.
07:03I don't know if you've gotten that far, but that game in Minnesota, like a lot of them, they're going
07:07to be low spreads, probably.
07:09Bill's on the road against some really good NFC teams.
07:13Well, it depends on if Kyler Murray can see over the line of scrimmage or not in Minnesota.
07:16That is still not known yet.
07:18I saw some footage of him the other day, and he's like jump-throwing passes in Minnesota.
07:23So it's not great when your quarterback's 5'7 and 5'9 with heels on.
07:27That's never good.
07:29But that's an interesting game in Minnesota.
07:31It reminds me of a time that this would have been, what, 2018, I believe.
07:36Would that have been Allen's rookie year?
07:37Yes.
07:38Yep.
07:39When Minnesota was a 17-point favorite at home, I believe week three, and I had him in Survivor.
07:46I'm like, oh, please.
07:48And there was that play when Josh Allen hurtled the middle linebacker.
07:53Anthony Barr.
07:54Yep.
07:55We're in trouble.
07:56Yep.
07:56And they won the game outright as a 17-point dog.
07:59It's funny to look back at that game now, seeing what Allen has become, because the clues were there.
08:05Not only did he jump over, it was the first time he hurtled a guy in an NFL game, at
08:09least that I remember.
08:10And it's his rookie year, and it's week three, so I'm pretty sure I'm safe there.
08:14So he does that, but he also had a Superman dive at the pylon for a touchdown in that game.
08:21Maybe that was the first time we saw that out of him.
08:23And that's, I don't know, it's not quite a signature move for him, but we've seen him do it numerous
08:27times now.
08:29And we didn't know at that time what we really had.
08:31You know, like, the next week, I think they go to Green Bay, and he was horrendous.
08:36Yeah, they got shut out, maybe.
08:38Yeah.
08:38This game in Minnesota, the Vikings had some crazy long streak of not getting shut out, and they scored really
08:45late.
08:45They scored late, right.
08:46To avoid it.
08:47But, yeah, that's a memorable one for Bills fans, to sort of see Allen pop for the first time.
08:52You know, Sam, thinking about the schedule has me thinking about the hierarchy in the AFC overall.
08:58Like, how much did last year shake up the betting markets, if at all, with the Chiefs and the Ravens
09:05having the down years and not making the playoffs?
09:07The Bengals weren't there.
09:09Is everything sort of back to pre-Mahomes injury, pre-Jackson loss season?
09:15Like, is order restored?
09:17Or are New England and Denver and the Chargers sort of cutting into that?
09:23Well, from an odds standpoint, it's still the big three, same as it ever was.
09:27It's Buffalo, Baltimore, and then a little bit lower than them is Kansas City.
09:31I mean, those were the same three favorites last year.
09:33Granted, the order might have been a little bit different.
09:35If I remember correctly, Baltimore was a slight favorite going into week one, then Buffalo, then Kansas City.
09:43Now it's Buffalo, Baltimore, KC.
09:45I'd argue they're interchangeable, especially if Mahomes comes back and, you know, Andy Reid's able to retool that offense on
09:52the fly.
09:52But those are your three favorites, essentially.
09:55Buffalo, Baltimore, Kansas City.
09:57But the second tier, Bulldog, I think is a lot tighter because you have the Patriots at 8-1, the
10:02Chargers at 8-1, the Texans at 8-50.
10:05Now, personally, I'm not betting New England, Los Angeles, or Houston to win the AFC.
10:10I think I'd go a little bit lower and maybe look at a team like Cincy at 10-1 if
10:14Burrow can stay on the field.
10:16But I sort of know my gamble there.
10:19The oddsmakers are saying it's going to be one of the big three, and they're really pushing out Jacksonville.
10:24That's what's telling to me because Jacksonville is now, let's see, ninth on the board.
10:30You know, last year they were one of the trendier teams with Trevor Lawrence and this offense and all that.
10:35They had a really good regular season, and now it's like the books don't believe in it.
10:39So Jacksonville, to me, is the team that's been leapt the most by the Patriots, Chargers, Texans, Broncos, and Bengals.
10:47Jacksonville in the 9-hole, when they were in like the 5-hole last year in the AFC, but the
10:51rich are still rich at the top.
10:52Yeah.
10:53When the playoffs came around, Jacksonville I thought was the team to avoid.
10:57I mean, the Bills drew them in Week 1, and they won down there.
11:00But, you know, just to back up what you're saying, I thought the Jaguars were maybe the best team in
11:05the conference when the playoffs got here last year.
11:07I certainly think they could be this year.
11:09Yeah.
11:09So, and they always have the benefit of playing.
11:12I mean, the division is, well, Tennessee is still there.
11:15Indy's uneven.
11:17We'll see about Houston, I guess.
11:19So, yeah, I might like them, too.
11:21You know, you mentioned the list of things the Chiefs have to be careful about and need to go right,
11:26like Mahomes coming back.
11:27They also need to make sure Rasheed Rice avoids infection while he's rehabilitating his knee injury in jail.
11:33I saw that the other day because I follow the underdog NFL alerts.
11:37I get them all to my phone.
11:38It's very important for me during the season.
11:40So, when a guy's hurt, I know it before most people.
11:42And I got the notification, and it said, Rasheed Rice, parentheses, knee, comma, jail, end parentheses.
11:49And I'm like, where else?
11:50In what other league do you get that notification, right?
11:53Like, it's got to be the NFL.
11:57It's going to be an interesting season in Kansas City, no doubt.
12:00But if they're afloat when Mahomes comes back, they always got a shot.
12:04I think you guys might be onto something, though, with Jacksonville because that's the time to bet.
12:08When people are off them, when people don't believe in it, and you get a better price, that's not a
12:14bad idea.
12:14I'm not there personally, but 15-1 on Jacksonville is good.
12:18And I did text Mike Bulldog.
12:20I didn't text you.
12:21It was late.
12:21I didn't know if you were sleeping or whatever, but I am going to that game in Minnesota.
12:25I am 100% going to Bill's Vikings.
12:29Very cool.
12:30One more quickly.
12:31Sam Monson says a team that he thinks the market is bafflingly low on is Denver.
12:38A great roster.
12:40Did they not have a great season?
12:42Whether that extends to the Mahomes injury or some thought on the Chargers that I'm not aware of.
12:48But I know Sam, who I have a lot of respect for, thinks maybe Denver is soft from a betting
12:53standpoint, too.
12:55I don't know what the number is.
12:56I wouldn't say soft.
12:58I mean, I think I'd rather bet them.
13:00I like them in that three-hole in the AFC West.
13:04I mean, you could find them at 225-230 to win the division.
13:08That sort of speaks to me because I think, to your point, I think they have, from 1-53, I
13:13think they have the best roster in that division.
13:16So I could get on board with betting them to win the West.
13:19I don't know that I'm going to bet them 8-1 to win the conference or 16-1 to win
13:23the Super Bowl.
13:24But I disagree immensely that they're not the third.
13:29Like, I don't think they're the third-best team in the West.
13:32The odds say they are.
13:34I disagree.
13:35What's the order for you?
13:38I'd go Denver, KC, LAC.
13:41Okay.
13:41Best team in the West, then.
13:43All right.
13:43Anything to be done with the basketball at this point?
13:46What do you think about Game 7?
13:48I think the Thunder have been sort of a sleeping giant from a price standpoint.
13:54I get the Thunder at home, minus 3.5, against a team that has a younger starting lineup than Michigan's
13:59college basketball team.
14:01These games are tough for the young.
14:04Yeah, think about that.
14:05Spurs starting lineup, Michigan starting lineup.
14:08Spurs are younger.
14:09I'm going to take the defending champs tomorrow, minus 3.5 at home.
14:12Good stat.
14:14Sam, thanks for your time.
14:15Enjoy your weekend.
14:16All right.
14:17You guys, too.
14:17See ya.
14:18Sam Paniatovich of Fox.
14:22Sal Capaccio coming up at 4.
14:24Get Sal's thoughts on some of the...
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