- 2 days ago
This is an in-depth Met Office UK Weather forecast for the next week and beyond.
Summer 2025 looks to be the warmest on record. We'll look at why... and what's next.
Bringing you this deep dive is Met Office meteorologist Honor Criswick.
Summer 2025 looks to be the warmest on record. We'll look at why... and what's next.
Bringing you this deep dive is Met Office meteorologist Honor Criswick.
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NewsTranscript
00:00Hello and welcome to this week's Deep Dive.
00:03Of course it's Tuesday so we bring you these Deep Dive videos every week and it's not just
00:08Deep Dive videos, on a Wednesday we have our 10 day trend, on a Friday we do our Weather
00:12Studio Live and of course if you're subscribed then you already know this, but if you are
00:17new here then welcome and do feel free to subscribe, give this video a like and if you
00:22do have any comments or questions as we go through this video then do leave them in the
00:26comments section, we do tend to take a look and sometimes we pick out a few and answer
00:30them on our Weather Studio Live on Friday at 12.15 so it's always worth leaving a comment
00:35or question if you do have one and this Deep Dive should be an interesting one, we've got
00:40a couple of interesting topics to talk about, you might have noticed this morning the weather
00:44feels quite different after quite a hot dry bank holiday weekend and after quite a hot
00:49dry summer as well so we're going to take a look at the change this week, why we're starting
00:54to see a bit of a change, we're going to take a look at summer so far, meteorological
00:58summer does come to an end this weekend, I'll get over it eventually, I'm not too upset and
01:04we're also going to be taking a look across the world as well, there's been some interesting
01:08videos, pictures you might have seen of interesting weather phenomena happening over into the US
01:14but I'm not going to give too many spoilers because we're going to talk about it in a moment.
01:17So yes, let's start off with the weather this week then, high pressure no longer dominating
01:23our weather but instead we've actually got this area of low pressure swirling around
01:27in an anti-clockwise direction just to the northwest of the country, now I'll just play
01:31this through because what it does is it swings around in that anti-clockwise direction, it
01:37picks up frontal systems from the Atlantic and it drags them across the UK, so Wednesday
01:42in particular could bring quite a hefty frontal system moving through, so heavy possibly thundery
01:47showers moving through here and we remain to see low pressure to the northwest of the country,
01:52continuing to drag in either frontal systems or more occluded features, some more organized
01:57bands of showers, but at times we will see systems like this one later Thursday into Friday where
02:03we'll see more persistent outbreaks of rain move through along with these systems here and
02:08what this area of low pressure starts to become, it is actually a meteorological term, it becomes
02:13what we call a flabby low and that basically means that it's not such a well defined area of
02:20low pressure anymore, the winds aren't as strong as what it was initially when it first formed
02:25out into the Atlantic, it doesn't have a well defined frontal system bringing through outbreaks
02:30of rain and it just becomes a bit of a, almost a blocking low in a way and it just continues
02:35to drag in frontal system after frontal system. So this is essentially what it is by the end
02:40of the week, a flabby low, let me know if you knew that one already. But still even as we
02:46head into the weekend we continue to see the, that low pressure dragging in systems from
02:53the Atlantic, particularly as we head into Saturday, it does look like possibly an area
02:59of low pressure once again just pushing into parts of the south and southwest. Now what
03:03I will say with this one is, keep an eye on the forecast, there's quite a lot of variability
03:09with different models around what this system could potentially do. At the moment we're kind
03:13of accepting our global model, this is the model one I'm showing you here, with an area
03:17of low pressure moving into parts of the southwest, could bring some quite heavy spells of rain,
03:22possibly some strong gusty winds with it as well. But yeah, just keep an eye on the forecast,
03:26Saturday's still a few days away, so there's a possibility that that might change. But changeable
03:32is certainly the word to describe it, even from Sunday we'll still remain in that westerly flow,
03:37that polar maritime air mass. So showers, longer spells of rain, at times it could be quite breezy,
03:42particularly in the west as well. But hopefully some brighter interleads in between. That's
03:47the good thing about showers, you do tend to get some sunny spells in between as well,
03:50so if you're sad the high pressure is gone, it's not going to be a total washout for many
03:55of us. So let's take a look at some of that detail then. So I'm going to switch this one
04:02here. I'm just going to skip over to Wednesday because Tuesday's pretty much over by the time
04:07this video goes out. So as I already mentioned on Wednesday, that initial frontal band moving
04:12through, it could be quite an intense feature. So some quite heavy downpours, some intense
04:17showers moving through, some quite strong gusty winds, and potentially some thunder and lightning
04:23too as it moves its way through. So it moves its way into parts of the west-southwest during
04:28the early hours of the morning. So potentially quite a wet commute if you're still on your way
04:32to work and not enjoying the summer holidays like some of us are. So this could potentially
04:38be quite an intense feature as it moves its way through on Wednesday. Behind it, Thursday-Friday,
04:45you can see looks like a fairly similar picture, those showers. But some of them are going to
04:48be quite constant showers, particularly in the west where you could start to just see shower
04:53after shower and it's going to seem like quite a wet day. But areas further east perhaps not
04:57seeing as many of those showers. So once again, those brighter, sunnier interludes in between.
05:01But it's going to start to get quite gusty at times, particularly as we head into Friday,
05:05western areas in particular. So around coastal areas, we could start to see quite strong gusts,
05:10potentially some quite high waves as well as we start to move in towards the end of the week.
05:14And once again, these showers could be quite heavy and intense. The odd rumble of thunder
05:18is likely as we head through the week as well. So keep an eye on the forecast, definitely keep
05:23an eye out for warnings as well. There are some models indicating that some of those rainfall
05:28totals could start to push their way up, particularly in western areas. So a chance
05:32we might possibly see a rain or thunderstorm warning. So keep an eye out on our website
05:36across our social media channels because as soon as those warnings are issued, we'll let
05:40you know. And Saturday as well, another one to watch. Yes, it does look like potentially
05:44Wales, parts of south and southwestern parts of England could see quite a wet and miserable
05:49start to the weekend. A very different weekend to the one we just had. So once again,
05:54keep an eye on the forecast then. So some longer spells of rain certainly possible. And then
05:59elsewhere across northern areas, blustery showers continuing. Once again, could be some heavy
06:03thundery downpours along there. Now what about temperatures? We've just seen a record-breaking
06:08bank holiday Monday. England, Wales and Northern Ireland, I believe. Oh, maybe it's, no, it's Wales
06:15and Northern Ireland have had some record-breaking temperatures this bank holiday Monday. But are the
06:21warm temperatures sticking around? Not quite. We can see here on Tuesday, we're still pushing
06:26up into the mid to high 20s. Last I checked, we'd reached about 27 degrees in Kent. So it's
06:31still certainly a warm day, even if you did wake up to a wet start this morning, today on
06:36Tuesday. But notice through the week, Wednesday, Thursday, Friday, we do see a slight drop in
06:41those temperatures. On Wednesday, eastern areas still holding on to perhaps the mid-20s. So parts
06:48of East Anglia, Yorkshire, Lincolnshire, for example, might just start to see quite a warm
06:52day. If they manage to stay away from those showers, it could still be quite a pleasant
06:57day. But those temperatures are starting to drop through the week. But nevertheless, they're
07:02still going to be in the high teens, low 20s. So more towards average for the time of year.
07:07But if you do catch any sunnier breaks, it's still going to be quite warm. But more towards
07:12average for the time of year. Obviously, this summer we've had four heat waves, so some quite
07:16intense temperatures. So for many, it's probably just going to feel quite a bit more pleasant.
07:20And overnight temperatures as well. We've had above average temperatures for most of summer
07:24across our minimum temperatures, so our minimum overnight temperatures. So those will start to
07:30come more towards average for the time of year as well. So a little bit of a cooler feel, but
07:34nevertheless, it's still going to feel quite nice in the sunshine. So a changeable week ahead,
07:40things starting to turn a little bit more changeable from the west. Showers, longer spells of rain
07:45starting to feel a little bit cooler. But that's certainly not what it's been for summer so far.
07:51In fact, we've just released a press relief. So take a look at our website if you want a bit more
07:56information over our summer stats. But it does look like we are going to see one of the warmest
08:03summers on record. The warmest, in fact, overtaking 2018. And this is all to do with average
08:11temperature over the summer. Now, as I've already mentioned, meteorological summer, that does
08:17actually end this weekend. So on Sunday, the end of August is when we see the end of meteorological
08:22summer. Astronomical summer will end on the 22nd of November when we have the autumn equinox. But we
08:29keep seasons every three months in order to help with our climate records. And it does look like,
08:36even though there's still a few days away, it does look like this is going to be the warmest summer
08:40on record. Because for it not to be, temperatures would have to be around four degrees below average
08:46over the next few days. And the forecast certainly isn't indicating that. So provisional stats at the
08:51moment. But nevertheless, it is looking likely that we are going to see the warmest summer of the year.
08:57So as I've already mentioned, that's going to be overtaking 2018, where the average temperature,
09:01that was 15.76 degrees Celsius. And we're currently running at around 16.13 degrees Celsius,
09:08already beating the average temperature of 2018. Not only this, but it also knocks off
09:14the summer of 1976. Many of us can remember that summer, not me. But it has gone through
09:21in our historical records. We had intense heat waves lasting for around two to three weeks.
09:27So now if we see 2025 as one of the warmest summers, 1976 is no longer going to be in the
09:34top five. And what you'll notice is all top five warmest summers will have occurred since the year
09:402000. So that's really indicating, you know, our changing climate, our warming climate. We're starting
09:45to see those real intense temperatures over summer, adding on to the average temperature that we see
09:50that summer. And thus we're starting to see more of those in more recent years. But why? Why was this
09:57summer so incredibly warm? We had June and July above average temperatures for the time of year.
10:03England actually recorded its warmest June on record. We've had four heat waves, four widespread heat
10:09waves this summer. And it's all down to high pressure. When we've had high pressure, either around the UK,
10:16so creating those dry, hot, settled conditions. Or we've had the Azores high stretching up, giving us
10:21that southerly flow. So we've dragged in heat from the near continent. But whenever we've had high
10:26pressure affecting our weather, it's tended to stay for quite a long time. So giving us those dry,
10:32settled, sunny conditions, really adding on to the heat. Not only that, but we had a really dry spring
10:37that creates dry ground. We've had a marine heat wave. So sea surface temperatures around the UK
10:43have been well above average for the time of year. So these conditions combined means that heat, if it
10:49starts to build, it tends to linger, particularly if high pressure is dominating. And also minimum
10:53temperatures, overnight temperatures have widely been above average. So we've had many factors
10:58contributing to this summer being the warmest on record. Still provisional, but looking likely that
11:04we could see this summer as the top warmest summer on record. And obviously it's all down to our
11:11changing climate. Climate change actually in the UK, we're warming at about 0.25 degrees
11:16Celsius per decade. Doesn't sound like a lot, but obviously it is having a big impact on our summers
11:21here in the UK. Now, what about a bit of a look ahead? We woke up this morning. It certainly was
11:29quite damp here in Exeter. I've just come back from holiday in Corfu where it was lovely dry and sunny
11:35every day. So I wandered out of my sandals and walked straight into a puddle. A little bit embarrassing
11:40when you are literally a weather forecaster, but I wanted to stay in the holiday mode.
11:45But what's it looking like further ahead? Well, this actually is from our European model and this
11:51shows precipitation compared to average. So it's our precipitation anomaly. And if we get these brown
11:56orange colours, that indicates drier than average, but the green or the darker green colours show wetter
12:03than average. And this is from yesterday, so the 25th of August. So for the first week from the 25th,
12:11and this is into the second week. So this is over a 14 day period, this first and second chart here.
12:16And what can we see? We can see mostly green colours. So things tending to be wetter than average.
12:22There's certainly no signal for high pressure, another heat wave, a long prolonged dry spell,
12:28particularly over the next couple of weeks. There's no signal for that. So we're starting to see that
12:32change just in time for meteorological autumn. So western areas in particular over the next week,
12:38largely going to be wetter than average. We've got this frontal system, those showers moving through.
12:42And then as we head into the second week, it looks like we're going to continue into that pattern of
12:49Atlantic mobility and thus more wet weather on its way from the west. That's all I'm going to say on
12:55the weather ahead. I know sometimes people comment saying we don't talk about the weather ahead and
12:58deep dives. It's because then I step on Alex B's toes tomorrow when he does his 10 day trends. So
13:05I don't want to get told off again for doing that. So that's all I'm going to say. But if you want a
13:09little bit more detail on the next couple of weeks of weather, we do actually put out a 14 day forecast
13:14on our app on a Tuesday and Friday and it's me doing it today. So if you want a short little video
13:19about the weather over the next couple of weeks and take a look at our app. But yes, summer will be
13:25finishing as we head into this weekend. Meteorological autumn will start as we head into next week.
13:35But you might have noticed already there's been some talk I've seen on social media. My dad mentioned
13:40it to me that actually over the last week has felt quite autumnal. I went for a little walk yesterday.
13:45I noticed there's berries on the bushes, lots of trees look quite, the leaves look quite dead or
13:50they've kind of fallen onto the ground. And this sometimes is actually referred to as a false autumn.
13:57And it's it does tend to happen when we have quite a long, dry, hot summer. And we've got,
14:04you know, drought in large parts of the country and trees tend to enter almost like a survival mode.
14:10And so they drop their leaves. They're not they're not dying, but they're not really thriving. They're not
14:14photosynthesizing. So they drop their leaves. And that's basically to preserve the tree for the
14:19for the rest of the year and also for years to come. So yeah, it definitely feels a little bit
14:25autumnal. If you've not noticed it out there, definitely take a look when you're when you're
14:28next outside. But yeah, I just thought that was quite interesting because of the long, dry summer.
14:34It almost feels like we're entering into early autumn and it's certainly going to
14:37start to feel autumnal over the next couple of weeks.
14:41So now I'm going to talk about something completely different,
14:45something really interesting that's happened across the pond over into the US. I'm not going to tell you
14:51what it is straight away because some of you will probably already know. I know we've got a few
14:56met heads in the comments that will probably know what this is. But this took place in Arizona,
15:01a big, large, dusty plume moving its way across the city. I took this video from the BBC website.
15:09So what is this? It's actually called a haboob. And this is quite a powerful dust or sandstorm that can
15:17take place, particularly when we have quite severe convection. So not only as this moves through,
15:22it's bringing in dust and sand. You can see some flashes in this video. Actually, you can get some
15:27quite severe thunderstorms associated with this feature. Really hazardous. I think they had to
15:32close some of the airports in Arizona. Obviously, visibility dramatically drops quite quickly.
15:38This kind of plume of dust can be several hundreds meters high. They tend to move fairly quickly as
15:43well. So all of a sudden, your visibility drops. It can be quite hard to breathe. And it's
15:47a real big hazard, particularly in terms of aviation. So I thought it'd be fun, why not,
15:53to go into a little bit of why these are created. So I've got my little desert area here. And you know,
16:01I do love any excuse to draw. So I thought I'd just go into how these haboobs can be created.
16:10So it's a hot summer's day. We've got quite sandy, dry conditions. And so obviously,
16:16some convection taking place. And as we already know, when we start to see convection taking place,
16:21the air starts to rise, it cools and condenses. And we start to see clouds form. Now these clouds
16:29will grow more and more, particularly if the heat is quite intense. So we start to see a bit of an
16:35updraft take place within the cloud. Here we go. And then obviously, as the air within the cloud,
16:43it rises, condenses still, and obviously condenses. And we start to create little water droplets.
16:50There we go. They're supposed to be water droplets. And as these water droplets occur,
16:55condensation is taking place, and latent heat is actually released. And this further fuels the
17:01updraft within the cloud. And the cloud continues to grow. So we start to see those really big fluffy
17:06clouds, eventually turning into cumulonimbus clouds, which I'm sure you already know, they have a bit
17:10more of a flatter top when they're, when they're a CB. But anyway, we start to see those really intense
17:16clouds form. Then what we see, just get rid of some of this, is obviously, we start to see more and
17:24more raindrops occur. And some of these start to get quite heavy. And so the cloud starts to rain out.
17:29So we start to get a shower, right? But this, these raindrops are actually falling into air, which
17:34is quite dry. And those raindrops actually evaporate. And in order to do so, it takes that heat
17:40from the, from the near environment. And that creates a bit of a cold pool underneath that cloud.
17:46This is why I love clouds so much. It's so interesting that we start to see a bit of a
17:49temperature change at the base of this cloud, all because those raindrops are starting to evaporate.
17:55So we get a cool, dense plume of air just below the base of the cloud. And this creates a downdraft.
18:03And what we can see, particularly with really big cumulonimbus clouds, those downdrafts can be
18:07quite intense. So it's rapid air moving kind of southwards from the base of the cloud.
18:15So we start to see that air descend. And obviously, in this kind of environment,
18:18it will hit the ground and it will spread outwards. And in this environment, it's obviously hitting
18:23down onto ground, which is either dusty or sandy and pushes its way horizontally.
18:29And then as a result of this, we do tend to get, particularly in the conditions that we saw in
18:34Arizona, we tend to get a gust front be produced as a result of that, that downdraft hitting the ground.
18:41And of course, then we start to see a wall of cloud push its way along, like in that video that I saw.
18:47And with the sand or the dust below it, then that starts to get picked up.
18:51And then that starts to push horizontally at that base of the cloud.
18:55So then we start to see that big wall of cloud, that big wall of dust push its way.
19:01And it's not just, it's in all directions too, when that downfront hits the ground out of the cloud.
19:08We start to see that wall of dust push its way across, like what we saw in Arizona this weekend.
19:14Not only that, it was in Burning Man Festival. There's a few videos there online, really dusty
19:18conditions, really poor visibility all of a sudden. And then you get incredible images like this.
19:24So I thought that was really interesting because you don't see conditions like this every day.
19:28And sometimes it's just fun to go into a little bit of meteorological theory.
19:34But anyway, that is it for today. That is today's deep dive. Do keep an eye out for our press release,
19:41all about the summer stats if you want a bit more information there. Do leave any comments or
19:46questions and we'll be sure to take a look at some of those on Friday 12.15. If you've not joined
19:51us already, it's really good fun. Me and Alex B will be there answering your questions live.
19:57And you can ask us anything, all to do with weather, climate, our jobs here at the Met Office,
20:01you can ask us anything. But otherwise, that's it from me. Make sure to do give this video a like,
20:07make sure to give us a subscribe. And of course, we'll be here next Tuesday with another deep dive.
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