00:00Hi there and welcome to the week ahead forecast from the Met Office.
00:03Just like so often through the spring and summer, high pressure is returning this week.
00:08But it's not going to bring a heat wave because it's located in a slightly different place.
00:12It's located to the north of Scotland, acting like a boulder in a stream.
00:16It's redirecting the jet stream, one branch pushing well to the north into the Arctic Circle,
00:21another branch pushing to the south and scooping up an area of low pressure.
00:25And that's why we are expecting one or two showers towards the south west on Monday night into Tuesday.
00:31But otherwise, with that high pressure dominant, it's going to be a predominantly dry week ahead.
00:36But as I say, not a heat wave because it's going to be bringing cooler air from the east and northeast,
00:40along with a lot of cloud will wake up to cloudy skies by and large across the UK on Tuesday morning,
00:46especially for central and eastern parts of the country.
00:48Some drizzle for northeast England and northeast Scotland as those easterly and northeast winds bring moisture from the North Sea.
00:57But the low cloud will be stubborn to clear.
00:59It's going to stick around for parts of eastern and northeastern UK for much of the day,
01:04perhaps breaking in places through the Midlands, the south across Wales and Northern Ireland,
01:08to give some brightest bells, the best of the sunshine towards west and northwest Scotland.
01:12There will be some brightest bells towards the southwest as well.
01:15But here, because of that low pressure I mentioned, there will be one or two showers,
01:19especially for the far west of Cornwall, Isles of Scilly, perhaps some rumbles of thunder as well.
01:24Most likely staying offshore, but you never know.
01:27Now, temperatures responding well to the sunshine in the south and the west up into the low or even mid-20s.
01:34But where we've got that cool breeze from the North Sea and the thick cloud,
01:38it's going to feel notably on the cool side, mid to high teens more likely.
01:43And in fact, it's going to get cooler through the week ahead because of this cold front shifting south.
01:48One thing it will do, though, is nudge the low pressure further south.
01:51So the showers across the southwest tending to disappear into Wednesday
01:56and high pressure building in from the north more widely.
01:59So as a result, as that cold front clears, we are going to see the cloud breaking up a bit more,
02:05perhaps brighter skies for much of northern and eastern UK.
02:08As the day progresses on Wednesday, sunnier skies arriving.
02:13Initially cloudy skies for the south and southwest, but even that disappears later on.
02:19So a sunnier afternoon, I think, for many, but not necessarily warmer
02:23because of that cooler airflow and the cold front bringing lower dew points, lower humidities.
02:29And so I expect it's going to be low 20s, high teens for most across the country.
02:35Then into Thursday morning, a bit of a cool start to the day,
02:39but we begin the day with plenty of bright skies and most places dry.
02:43Again, one or two light showers across the far northeast of Scotland.
02:47Mid-teens here, high teens down the North Sea coast, low 20s across some southern parts.
02:53So, yes, whilst we've got high pressure, whilst we do have some reasonably strong sunshine
02:58and still those UV levels relatively high, even if it's not feeling as hot as it has done at times this summer,
03:05it is going to be cool for many, certainly compared to a lot of the hot spells that we've experienced.
03:12High pressure then widely on Friday.
03:15And with this opening out across the country, I think there'll be fewer isobars and lighter winds as a result.
03:21That means that Thursday nights are colder nights compared with previous nights.
03:26We'll start the day on Friday with temperatures in main urban areas at 10 or 11 Celsius,
03:33but in the countryside more like mid to high single figures and in some shelter spots.
03:38Highland Scotland, for example, or perhaps parts of northern England,
03:41we'll see temperatures dipping into the low single figures.
03:45So actually quite chilly in one or two places first thing Friday.
03:49And certainly a more comfortable night for sleeping than we've become used to through the summer.
03:53We'll have lost that mugginess.
03:55But actually Friday it will warm up through the day because of the light winds,
03:59because of the sunny spells, not widespread sunshine.
04:01There'll be areas of cloud around, but pleasant enough.
04:04It's dry, light winds.
04:05Where we get that sunshine, temperatures up to 23 or 24 Celsius.
04:10Then we keep that high as we start the bank holiday weekend.
04:13Not a bank holiday obviously for everyone, but it will be for many parts of the UK.
04:17And that high pressure bringing largely settled and fine weather to begin things on Saturday
04:22and most likely into Sunday as well, again with the jet stream diverted well to the north.
04:28Now there are some areas of low pressure around the Atlantic,
04:31quite weak affairs that they could fringe upon western parts of the UK
04:34during the second half of the bank holiday weekend to bring some showers.
04:39But they'll tend to fizzle away as they approach
04:41and eventually become perhaps subsumed by another low.
04:46And this is a feature we've been watching for a few days now.
04:49It's of interest for the developments into next week.
04:54And it is Hurricane Erin at the time of recording.
04:56A major hurricane, a Category 3.
04:59It actually explosively deepened during the weekend
05:02in just 24 hours from a tropical storm to a Cat 5 monster.
05:05And it's going to bring some strong winds to the Caribbean through the next few days.
05:11But luckily it's not going to make direct landfall anywhere.
05:15And then it moves into the North Atlantic
05:18and transitions into a typical mid-latitude low during the weekend.
05:23This is the point at which it starts to be picked up by the jet stream.
05:26But it's always uncertain when these ex-hurricanes are picked up by the jet stream.
05:30They're full of energy and where exactly they end up then.
05:35Well, we're talking about a week in advance.
05:38That's certainly subject to uncertainty.
05:40And this shows the track from ex-hurricane Erin.
05:44The multiple tracks from multiple different computer models.
05:47One or two push it well to the south.
05:49But most of them take it on this kind of track into the North Atlantic
05:52before eventually pushing it further east.
05:57A few take it towards the Azores.
05:59But the majority take it somewhere to the north-west of Scotland.
06:04And we're talking about perhaps next Tuesday, Wednesday.
06:07So it's a long way off.
06:08A lot to be determined between now and then
06:10about the behaviour of this hurricane.
06:12And then ex-hurricaneers get picked up by the jet stream.
06:15And it's not going to hit the UK as a hurricane,
06:18but as a mid-latitude low if it does hit the UK.
06:22Either way, it's likely to inject some uncertainty into the forecast
06:26for next week after the bank holiday weekend
06:28and may well mix things up for the final week of August,
06:34perhaps introducing some more unsettled weather.
06:36But like I say, it's a long way off.
06:38I'm going to be covering it in more detail in Tuesday's Deep Dive,
06:41which you can find on the Met Office YouTube channel.
06:44Join me for that.
06:44But for now, bye-bye.
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