00:00All right, on the feed, we're going to be talking about what's severe weather.
00:03Why? Because, as you'll see, we are in the heart of the severe weather season.
00:08And so far this season, you know, what's severe weather's been a little up and down.
00:12You know, we have times where we've had a lot of severe weather, then it goes quiet, then it comes
00:17back.
00:18It's not that unusual, but I did want to show you where we are for the season here.
00:24I want to show you the tornado. Now, these are the reports.
00:27But, again, we could gain something by looking at where we are so far this year compared to the historical
00:35average for tornado reports here.
00:37And here we are, and here's the number now.
00:40So the average from so far this season is about 597.
00:45So that's what the average is. We're at 622.
00:49You know, to me, it's been an average severe weather season as far as the numbers are concerned.
00:56Now, let me go back a second, and then I want to show you something else.
01:00How about the wind reports? And this is where it gets a little interesting here.
01:05These are the wind reports that we've seen.
01:09About 2,500 is the historical average. We're closing in on 3,900.
01:15You know, in my mind, I think it's been a pretty robust severe weather season.
01:18Now, when you look at severe weather, a lot of people focus that on tornado production.
01:23But also, you know, wind is something else to look at here.
01:27The hail, by the way, is about near average.
01:29So I would say it's been nothing exceptional as far as the numbers are concerned.
01:34And I do think moving forward here, things are going to be pretty quiet as we go over the next
01:39week or so.
01:40Until you can get warmth established and the flow coming in from the Gulf, you're not going to have a
01:46lot of severe weather.
01:47But this time of the year, it's pretty easy to get at least spotty severe thunderstorms here.
01:53Because as I mentioned, you know, historically, look where we are right now as far as the severe weather season.
02:01I mean, here it is.
02:02This is the daily occurrence of tornadoes, you know, all year.
02:06And it goes from 1950 through 2020.
02:09And when you look at the data, you see the ramping up here in March and April.
02:15And then you hit the crescendo here, late May.
02:21So mid to late May is a very volatile time.
02:24And then you can see a quick drop off here as we get June and July.
02:28And then you see another little increase here as we get into the fall months.
02:33This is the second severe weather season during the fall that we can sometime get here.
02:38So that's where we are right now.
02:41The question is, is what's going to be happening over the next couple of days?
02:45I really don't think we're going to be looking at a lot moving forward here.
02:50Now, beginning tomorrow, there's a dip in the jet stream coming across the central part of the United States.
02:55Here it is.
02:56I mean, you can see it right in here coming down across the Midwest.
03:00A little vigorous system.
03:01No doubt about that.
03:02I mean, you've got some pretty good energy here denoted by the yellow and the orange shading.
03:07But here's the problem.
03:09When you look at the surface map, you can see that there is the modeling showing some convection here.
03:20But, boy, I'll tell you what, this is pretty scant.
03:23Pretty scant here.
03:24Let me go to the evening.
03:26See, right in here, you have some precipitation here.
03:30But right off the bat, that doesn't look like a whole lot.
03:32And there's a reason for that.
03:34Because you don't have a lot of moisture coming into this system.
03:37You have energy.
03:38Do you have enough warmth?
03:40Well, yeah.
03:41Look at temperatures tomorrow in there across Indiana and Missouri and middle to upper 70s.
03:48Middle to upper 70s.
03:50Do you have some wind?
03:51You do have some wind energy.
03:52Not bad.
03:53Look at the low-level jet up in here.
03:56So you've got some pretty good wind here across Illinois and Michigan.
04:01A little bit of wind.
04:03About 30 knots here.
04:04Indiana and Illinois.
04:06But here's the key.
04:08Here's the key.
04:09When you look at the temperatures, again, the best warmth for this is going to be downstate Illinois and in
04:16the Missouri.
04:17But the best wind, when you look at it, is up northern Illinois and Wisconsin and Michigan.
04:23And then when you look at the dew point temperatures, here's the other problem.
04:27These dew point temperatures, your 60-degree dew points are right down in here.
04:31I mean, the threshold is around 60 degrees.
04:35It's in the middle 50s.
04:36You see a little surge coming northward?
04:39You see that right there?
04:41Not much.
04:42So that tells me what severe weather we see is going to be very limited.
04:47And even into the northeast, as you take this system out into the northeast on Wednesday.
04:54Again, not a bad drop, digging south and east.
04:57The model's showing, you know, some showers and thunderstorms here, no doubt about it, as we get in the Wednesday
05:03afternoon.
05:03But again, let's look at the low-level jet.
05:05What does it look like?
05:07You know what?
05:07Not bad.
05:09Right in here, across Virginia, and certainly in New England.
05:16But that's going to be too far north because you can see, look at how cool it is.
05:20Where do you have the warmth?
05:22The best wind, let's go back to that, the best wind is up in here across New Jersey and northeastern
05:29New England, right?
05:30As far as the energy, that's the way you measure wind.
05:32But then when you look at the temperatures, wow, you have temperatures in the 70s in the southern New Jersey
05:38and Virginia, but you're in the 50s in New England.
05:42So, to me, just looking at this, and then you look at the dew point temperatures, again, what are your
05:48dew point temperatures?
05:50Middle 50s, the low-level jets down in here.
05:55You go back to the surface map, tells me that maybe there's some isolated severe weather in Virginia.
06:01Maybe in the southern New Jersey, Wednesday, Wednesday night.
06:05And then that's it.
06:07I don't think there's much in the way of severe weather with this.
06:10Now, when you look at the pattern going forward, I do think by the time we get into next week,
06:17you're going to start getting warmer air in.
06:20You see that?
06:21Look at the dips in the jet stream.
06:22You start looking at temperatures here.
06:24Let's take a look at temperatures moving forward here as we get into Friday.
06:28Here comes the warmth in the plains.
06:30Look at the 80s.
06:32And then by the weekend, you start bringing warmer air in.
06:36The dew points are up.
06:38And then I think there's a possibility of severe weather as we get into the weekend and next week.
06:45We'll keep an eye on it.
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