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As Tamil Nadu prepares for polling, Chennai reports a significant influx of voters returning to participate in the electoral process.
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00:01Hello and welcome. Good evening. You're joining us here on a special edition of Super Six. I'm
00:06Akshita Nanda Gopal. We're counting down to voting day in Tamil Nadu. That's right. Over a month long
00:12here on India Today at 6pm. I've been getting you ground reports, analysis, conversations that have
00:18been the spotlight essentially in this election season. And now it's down to what happens within
00:23the next 24 hours as the people of Tamil Nadu will have their say. Over the next one hour,
00:29we have a very very interesting show lined up for you. We're going to be doing a data deep dive
00:34not
00:34just of Tamil Nadu but also phase one of Bengal. As far as Tamil Nadu goes, the question everyone's
00:39asking, what will be Vijay's impact? Yes, we know that we're hours away from polling so no this isn't
00:45a sell way but what we're going to do is with the current data that we have of 2021, give
00:50you a
00:50couple of scenarios of how things could play out on May 4th. In Bengal, SIR. We're going to be talking
00:56about the numbers that have just come in, how many voters will be casting their vote in phase two
01:01and that detailed breakdown coming your way. But we begin focusing on Tamil Nadu. And with hours to go
01:07for polling in the state, take a look at the images coming in.
01:20Huge rush that's being reported at the airport in Chennai, at bus stations in Chennai, as you're seeing
01:27people from across the country, from across the world even touch down in Tamil Nadu, in Chennai to ensure that
01:35they exercise their franchise. The images you see on your screens, extremely positive this,
01:40because what it shows is that hopefully, fingers crossed, we'll see a very healthy voter turnout
01:45come tomorrow. But also there's all sorts of messaging about really what this means, that you're
01:51seeing such big crowds come in about who really this helps. It's too early to say, let's be very,
01:57very clear about that. But these are very healthy, positive signs that the Chennai airport is packed.
02:02There's been a passenger rush that's been reported at railway stations, Central, Egmore, all of them
02:07seeing huge crowds. And then you've got superstars leading from the front. Ajit, who is in Europe for
02:13his racing tournaments, back to Chennai to fulfill his duty. And so all of the stars leading from the
02:19front. Remember, Tamil Nadu goes to polls tomorrow. And these are very, very promising, positive images,
02:25away from really all of the political messaging. But I want to bring in Pramod Madhav. He's joining us live
02:30from
02:30Chennai with the latest on all of these pictures that we're seeing. Pramod, just break this down for us.
02:35You know, is this unprecedented? Or is this the norm in Chennai, in Tamil Nadu? Usually, Tamil Nadu sees a
02:4270% plus turnout. Not the best. Hopefully, we'll beat that this time around. But is this common to see
02:48people
02:49come in large numbers? Or is it, as many say, some sort of political messaging?
02:55Akshita, one thing is very certain. We are definitely going to see a large number
02:58of voter turnovers, because almost a crore voters were removed after the SIR process. And year after
03:04year, it looks like tomorrow, there is a government holiday. Day after tomorrow, if they take one
03:08holiday, it's going to be a long weekend. So people are definitely being encouraged to go and vote.
03:11And taking all this under Congress and Tamil Nadu people are definitely, they are like politically,
03:15you know, they are very much aware of the situation and such. So that's the reason it looks like they
03:19want to go back and exercise their votes, Akshita.
03:22All right, Pramod, thanks for those details. We'll catch up with you tomorrow, 7am. That's when we start our coverage.
03:29And we'll be live nonstop when polling is underway in Tamil Nadu. Very positive images, like I said,
03:35political messaging, we leave it to you to decide. Let's cut across to more breaking news coming in.
03:48Home Minister Amit Shah has once again slammed Malik Rajan Kharkir, Congress Chief, over the Modi terrorist comment.
03:56Remember, Kharkir yesterday, while speaking in Chennai, took a jive at Prime Minister Modi, called him a terrorist, immediately clarified,
04:04saying he meant terrorizing.
04:05But it's led to a big showdown. Home Minister Amit Shah lashing out at the Congress Chief. Listen in to
04:12what the Home Minister said while campaigning in Bengal.
04:17But it's true that $1,000,000.
04:26It's true, you must have said $1,000,000, for the government members of the government, which is the state
04:37where the government Grinning is,
04:37and that this was prepared for the government of Kervan.
04:38The government of Kervan, which has made an human life,
04:38he gave an human life.
04:38He made a significant thing to know them.
04:39He said, I heard a bit, the government of Kervan.
04:41You know, and he called it all about.
04:50So the political fight continues, but I want to bring the focus back to Tamil Nadu.
04:56With hours to go for polling, a couple of scenarios that we want to break down.
05:00But before I get into that, just taking a look quickly at what 2021 looked like in Tamil Nadu, courtesy
05:04our election intelligence dashboard.
05:07We're going to begin with Tamil Nadu.
05:09And while focusing on Tamil Nadu, I want to not look at the seats, but the vote share.
05:13And there's a reason for that. I'll explain that to you in just a bit.
05:16If I were to look at the vote share alliance wise, the DMK plus was at 46 percent, the AIA
05:22DMK at 40 percent.
05:23Remember these two numbers, 46 percent for DMK plus, for AIA DMK plus 40 percent.
05:29I break that down party wise as well for you.
05:32The DMK was at 38 percent, the AIA DMK at 33.5 percent.
05:38So if you look at it, not much of a difference.
05:41Well, that's how Tamil Nadu's always been.
05:42You won't see that much of a difference in vote share.
05:45In seats, it makes a whole world of difference, which is why there's all this talk that for Vijay to
05:50convert his vote share into seat share, that really is the big challenge.
05:53But remember these numbers, DMK at 38 percent and AIA DMK at 33.5 percent.
05:59That's the individual vote share.
06:01Why am I stressing on this?
06:02I'm going to get you now some figures about how Tamil Nadu has voted every single time.
06:07You look at these two vote shares and then the kind of trend we've seen previously.
06:12So let's go straight to that.
06:14Let me get you the data of how Tamil Nadu has historically voted.
06:18And have we ever seen really any sort of mixed messaging as far as their verdict?
06:23Clear cut mandates almost always in Tamil Nadu.
06:27But what I want to show you right now is the seesaw trend.
06:30And before this, we're going to pull out the other graphic as well to show you how for the last
06:35many decades we've seen DMK, then the AIA DMK in power.
06:39That first and then I'll break down what we just showed you.
06:42And there you go from 1984 all the way to 2021.
06:45You see how we've constantly seen an up and down.
06:48We call it a pendulum, seesaw, whatever you want.
06:50But you had one term, Karnanadi, the next Jailalita.
06:53It went on like that for decades.
06:54And then the pivotal moment, Jailalita right here, 2011 she won, she bucked that trend.
07:01She scripted history by in 2016 returning as the chief minister of Tamil Nadu.
07:06So for all along, if you saw a seesaw trend, it was in 2011, 2016 that you finally saw that
07:12change.
07:12Same year, unfortunately, she passed away.
07:15And that's why you had OPS, EPS, EPS, the chief minister, OPS deputy taking over.
07:20Since then, huge churn that we've seen.
07:232021, Stalin has come back to power.
07:26Now, what will it be in 2026 is the question.
07:28What we're talking about, yes, is a seesaw trend, which only Jailalita has managed to do, has managed to break
07:34that record.
07:35Not even Kalainya.
07:36So if Stalin manages to do it, he will do what even his father couldn't do.
07:39But I want to also highlight here is that as far as vote share is concerned, we've seen a slight
07:45tweak in that particular trend.
07:47And what we're showing you right now, and take a look at the colors here.
07:51This is the DMK and this is the AIA DMK.
07:53From 2011, you go right up to 2021.
07:56What you'll see is that for the DMK, there has been, in fact, an increase in their vote share.
08:03And so it leads to questions about whether the anti-incumbency vote swing that you usually see for the DMK,
08:09whether they've actually managed to buck that trend.
08:11And so does that mean that the seesaw trend is not something that's necessarily the norm in Tabernadu,
08:16particularly in the last few decades.
08:18Jailalita managed to break it.
08:20The question is for the DMK too, is it a challenge or not?
08:23You look at the fact that 2016, 9%, 2021, 6.3%.
08:29And then in 2026, it's a big question mark of what they'll manage to do.
08:33So all of this indicates, essentially, that anti-incumbency vote swing isn't necessarily the norm.
08:41But while we focus on these numbers of the vote share and whether we're going to be seeing a swing,
08:48really,
08:48and whether a seesaw trend is the norm in Tamil Nadu or not, remember in Keralam too, there's a lot
08:54of talk about this.
08:55But in Keralam, Pinaray Vijayan has managed to break that.
08:58This time around, what will it be in Tamil Nadu?
09:00I have Sandeep Shastri, election analyst, vice president of Nittany University.
09:04Joining me, Amitabh Tiwari, founder of VoteVibe, Professor Sanjay Kumar, sophologist and elections expert.
09:10Good evening.
09:11When I come to all of you, we're counting down to the elections in Tamil Nadu.
09:14Amitabh Tiwari, I'd like to begin with you on the kind of data that's been coming in
09:18and the fact that if you look at the voting patterns of Tamil Nadu, almost always a seesaw trend.
09:24Can something like that actually be focused upon in an election where you have a third factor that everyone's talking
09:31about,
09:31where the elements in this election are so intrinsically different from previous ones?
09:37No, see, essentially, if you see, there is a strong trend of DMK not returning to power
09:43or alternate governments being thrown out every five years in Tamil Nadu.
09:48If Stalin manages to buck this trend, then we move for a five-year alternate trend to a 10-year
09:54alternate trend, perhaps, or maybe longer.
09:56So, that is the bigger question this time.
09:59Tamil Nadu, if you see, is a game of symbols.
10:02The two symbols we saw, DMK and ADMK, are very strong symbols.
10:07Both combined account for 70% to 75% of vote share across the past four to five decades.
10:14Now, we have a third player entrant in terms of TVK Vijay, which is drawing good crowds
10:21and we don't know what will be the impact of TVK, whether it will be able to convert that support
10:27into vote share
10:28and that whatever vote share it gets into any meaningful seat share, which could have an impact on both DMKs
10:36and AIADMKs' prospects.
10:38See, on a standalone basis, AIADMK is a stronger player because out of seven elections, they have higher vote share.
10:47But, Tamil Nadu is a game of alliances and we have seen in the past, and you have mentioned that
10:54also,
10:55that over the past three election cycles, the DMK seems correct.
11:00And Tamil Nadu is a game of alliances, wherein there is a new partner which is not contesting with either
11:06of these parties.
11:07Newer parties have done well when they have contested in alliance with either ADMK or DMK, be it PMK, DMDK
11:15or even Tamil Manila Congress.
11:17So, we'll have to wait and see how this pans out.
11:19A very interesting election, very difficult to call.
11:22I agree. You know, I've been on the ground for the last one month.
11:26There are constant messages from people saying, we need change, we need matram.
11:30Then there are some who are in those traditional strongholds who stick to, you know, generations.
11:35We voted for DMK or AIADMK, we're going to stick to that.
11:38And the fact that you have a new element that's emerged in this election has made it that much more
11:42harder to predict
11:43because you don't know which way Vijay will eat into votes.
11:46You don't know if he's going to eat into DMK or AIADMK.
11:48We'll break down those numbers in just a bit.
11:51But Professor Sanjay Kumar, you know, we've seen political entrants come in before in an election in different states, in
11:57Tamil Nadu too.
11:58Why is it that this time around everyone's saying, look, you have to throw all the existing rules of the
12:03Tamil Nadu election machinery up in the air
12:05because everything is unpredictable now?
12:11I'm not sure whether everything is unpredictable.
12:14You talked about the new entrance in Indian politics.
12:17And we have seen both the examples.
12:19There are both the examples in front of us.
12:21Look at what happened to Prashant Kishore's party in the Bihar Assembly election.
12:26There was so much of noise created by Prashant Kishore and his party much before elections, maybe a couple of
12:31years before elections.
12:33Everybody, including Prashant Kishore and many analysts, thought that he's going to, you know,
12:39upset the calculation of the two established political alliances in Bihar as we see in Tamil Nadu.
12:45In Bihar, it was NDA and RGD plus on the other side.
12:49But we all know what happened.
12:51But we should not forget how Amami party managed to perform in Delhi and in Punjab.
12:56So we have both the examples.
12:58Now, very difficult at this moment to predict how Vijay is going to perform, his party is going to perform.
13:05But I think certainly it's not going to be kind of the fate which Prashant Kishore's party had in Bihar.
13:13I'm also sure that his party is not going to perform as well as, you know, Amami party managed to
13:19do in Punjab and in Delhi.
13:22I think the party is up for a sizable number of votes.
13:26When I say sizable number of votes, maybe in the range of maybe eight, nine percent votes.
13:31But I doubt that this party is in a serious contest for capturing power in Tamil Nadu.
13:38Now, the question then becomes kingmaker.
13:41Does he become a kingmaker, a kingbreaker?
13:43What is it really in the realm of?
13:45But, you know, we'll get into that speculation in a bit.
13:47Mr. Sandeep Shastri, your opening comments of what we're seeing right now in Tamil Nadu,
13:52the contest as it is and how it could play out.
13:55You know, you've got Amitabh Tiwari suggesting that the edge right now could be to the AIA-DMK.
14:00Let me just flip that around and ask if the DMK is on a strong footing here,
14:04because you look at it on ground, there doesn't seem to be a deep-rooted sense of anti-incumbency, really.
14:11Akshita, two points emerging from what you said and what my co-panelists said.
14:16I think while for some time Tamil Nadu has had a revolving door policy,
14:22let's remember that right from 1977 to right up to his passing away,
14:29MGR did not lose a assembly election.
14:33So there is a history in Tamil Nadu of having voted for a charismatic leader.
14:38Also, Jayalajita continued two terms in 2011 and 2016.
14:43So there are both trends in Tamil Nadu of a leader winning consistently,
14:49a party winning consistently.
14:52All from one side though.
14:53So does this time see repeat of that trend or a reversal of that trend would be interesting.
14:59Secondly, Vijay is a critical factor in Tamil Nadu elections.
15:05As Sanjay Ji said, is it like going to be like Prashant Kishore,
15:10where there was a lot of buzz, lot of excitement, lot of presence at rallies,
15:15but when it came to vote share and when it came to seats, you really had a challenge.
15:21Or is it AAP?
15:22But in the case of AAP, let's remember,
15:24AAP had done serious long-term groundwork in Delhi before that first election.
15:30So I would go with the view that Vijay may be a distant third force
15:35in a state where there is a clear by-coalition competition.
15:40I think for me, at least, it's a clear competition between the DMK-led alliance
15:46and the ANNA-DMK-led alliance.
15:48And the Vijay factor would be a spoiler, and I suspect for both the groups.
15:54Eating into both sides, essentially.
15:57And, you know, how much of that will actually play out?
15:59You've drawn an MGR comparison.
16:01We're going to get that up on our screens as well,
16:04of how Vijay, compared to other superstars, could perform.
16:08And we've seen a whole history of it in Tamil Nadu as well.
16:11Let's just put that out.
16:12And I'm going to head across to the screen to also give you that particular data figure
16:17of what first-day first shows by superstars previously in Tamil Nadu elections looked like.
16:22You know, Tamil Nadu is one of those states that's seen this happen before.
16:26Not new to Tamil Nadu politics.
16:27The only question is, which way will Vijay go?
16:30We've got multiple examples.
16:32You've got extremes of both sides.
16:34What do I mean by that?
16:35There was a mention of MGR.
16:36So what I'm going to do for you is, before any of this, we talk about, really,
16:41how Vijay, MGR, Kamal Hassan, how each of these superstars actually fared in elections.
16:48Whether it was 1977 or, in fact, right up to 2026 now with Vijay's entry.
16:56Let's pull that out first of how really superstars have done in elections before.
17:02There you have it.
17:031977, MGR managed to get, and this is right after the AIDMK was formed.
17:08He started the AIDMK, first day, first show, mega hit.
17:11MGR in 1977 won 130 seats, 30.4% of a vote share just for the AIDMK.
17:18This was a bumper opening for MGR.
17:20I will, however, highlight, first day, first show for AIDMK.
17:23MGR, by then, however, was already a veteran politician.
17:27Hugely loved as a politician by the people.
17:29So that worked in his favor.
17:31Vijay Kant.
17:31Another formula that everyone's been rather curious in talking about.
17:35Vijay Kant with DMDK started off his party in 2006.
17:38How did he perform?
17:40He managed an 8.4% vote share, one seat.
17:43So remember that, because if the 8.4% vote share can give you one seat,
17:47it tells you what really Vijay needs to do if he needs more,
17:50if he wants to go ahead and get more than just one seat.
17:53Vijay Kant also, right after that, in 2011,
17:56went on to become the leader of opposition,
17:58bagged about 20 plus seats, and then fizzled out completely.
18:01Held the issues, differences with the AIDMK.
18:04None of that worked in his favor.
18:05So for the likes of Vijay, many lessons to learn from what went wrong with Vijay Kant's formula.
18:10Then you have Kamal Hassan.
18:11Again, someone who just recently entered the poll fray,
18:15but huge superstar, complete political flop.
18:18In 2021, just about managed to poll 2.62% of votes, zero seats.
18:23He lost his own seat of Coimbatore South as well.
18:26So this gives you a sense of how political superstars, yes,
18:29have constantly entered politics in Tamil Nadu.
18:32Some huge mega super hit, some managing tasting success initially,
18:38but didn't manage to hold out through.
18:40And then you have the others, political flops.
18:43Three different examples that we've given you.
18:45But let's then pull up for you the Vijay factor.
18:48Let's talk about how Vijay could perhaps do in this election.
18:51We've now pulled out a couple of scenarios for you.
18:54Now, if Vijay gets 5%, 10%, 15%, 20%, or even 25% of vote share, not good enough.
19:01Why do I say that?
19:02Because everyone's saying that any double-digit vote share is a game-changer for Vijay.
19:07I will highlight that this is on individual seat performance.
19:10In any seat of Tamil Nadu, of the 234 seats,
19:13if Vijay has to make a dent, essentially win that seat,
19:17he needs 30% plus of a vote share.
19:20So, it's based on that, that we've said 5% to 25%, no-go.
19:25He needs 30% plus on each seat to ensure a win in each seat.
19:30Using that, let's get you three scenarios.
19:32So, what we're doing is beyond 25%, 30%, 35%, tall ask.
19:37But if he gets there, what really does that mean?
19:40Whose votes does he cut into?
19:41Picture in three scenarios here,
19:43where we've given essentially a 50 is to 30 is to 20 formula.
19:46What do I mean by that?
19:47What we're breaking down for you is a 50 ratio of the DMK.
19:51That Vijay has eaten into 50% of the votes of the DMK.
19:5530% of the AIA DMK and others at 20.
19:58Now, at a 30% vote share,
20:00if that is the formula of 50, 30, 20 that we're talking about,
20:03where the maximum dent is to the DMK,
20:05if Vijay gets 30% of the vote share,
20:08that means that the DMK loses 24 seats.
20:11The AIA DMK loses three seats.
20:13Again, let me highlight that this is a scenario
20:15where we're saying 50% of the dent is to the DMK.
20:18If they lose 24 seats and AIA DMK loses three,
20:21the TVK reaches 27.
20:23This is if they get a 30% vote share.
20:25What happens if it's a 35% vote share?
20:28The DMK loses 126 seats.
20:31Again, because we're saying that, you know,
20:3350% of the dent is to the Dravidar Munitra Kargam.
20:35The AIA DMK already on a weak footing
20:38because we're talking about 2021 numbers,
20:40loses 19 seats.
20:41That means the TVK reaches 145.
20:44This is a great scenario for Vijay,
20:47but impossible, near impossible,
20:49to ensure that you ensure a 50% dent to the DMK.
20:52Scenario number two, let's pull that up for you.
20:54Again, same where we stick to 30% and 35%,
20:57but this time we flipped it around.
20:59A bigger dent than 50% to the DMK at 60.
21:02Again, for the AIA DMK, a 30% dent,
21:05and then others at 10.
21:07What will that look like seat-wise?
21:09Well, again, 30% vote share.
21:11That will mean 33 seats of the DMK will go away.
21:14Two seats of the AIA DMK, the TVK, reaches 35.
21:17Same formula that I explained to you earlier.
21:19With a 35% vote share, the DMK loses about 141 seats.
21:23And the AIA DMK at 18 seats,
21:26that brings TVK out of the 234 to 159.
21:29We haven't accounted the others as far as numbers go.
21:32But that is scenario two, where it's a 60 to 30 to 10 ratio.
21:37Let's bring up scenario three right now.
21:40And again, here, the ratio is different,
21:42but we're still doing the 30 versus 35 comparison.
21:45What if there's an equal cut into DMK and AIA DMK?
21:49That 40% of the DMK vote share is what Vijay eats into,
21:53and then 40% of the AIA DMK, others at 20.
21:56If I were to break that down in seat share,
21:59that a 30% vote share is what Vijay has managed to secure,
22:02minus 13, minus 6 for the AIA DMK,
22:05and that brings it to 19 for the TVK.
22:08But if Vijay gets a 35% vote share,
22:1189 seats the DMK loses, 50 seats the AIA DMK,
22:15which means essentially AIA DMK would be down to about 20 seats in all.
22:20139 is what TVK will reach.
22:22These are all tall, tall asks for Vijay.
22:26But this is what it will take, essentially.
22:28This is what it will take for Vijay to be able to make that difference of winning an election.
22:34Look, there's a lot of talk of kingmaker.
22:36Could he be a kingbreaker?
22:38We don't really know.
22:39But if he wants to win an election, as he's constantly said,
22:42it's not going to be easy.
22:44Amitabh Tiwari, looking at these particular numbers,
22:47of the three scenarios, which do you think could be the most likely?
22:51To me, all of them seem a bit impossible.
22:55Yeah, I mean, it's very difficult to say.
22:58But yes, it is very clear that in a triangular contest,
23:02if TVK has to win, it needs to get 35% vote share.
23:06Because anything below 35 cannot hand it a victory.
23:12But can it score 35%?
23:14It looks highly improbable as of now.
23:16But nobody knows impossible is possible in politics and elections.
23:19Now, the 30% ceiling gives very interesting results.
23:26It shows that at 30% vote share,
23:30TVK could range anywhere between 19 to 33 seats.
23:35And you have also shown various scenarios wherein
23:38who is TVK damaging more, whether it is the DMK or the ADMK.
23:43I think this is a very often asked question.
23:46I would hardly go with the fact that it is damaging the DMK more.
23:50And the reason for that is that what is the profile of the voter of Vijay as of now?
23:57It is largely urban, minorities, converted Dalits as Christians,
24:06youth and women.
24:08No, but there is also anti-incumbency.
24:10The anti-incumbency vote that would have gone to the ADMK could go to Vijay.
24:14Correct.
24:15And the anti-incumbent voter.
24:17So, the social profile says,
24:21and since DMK has a higher vote share and the high number of seats,
24:26the damage is likely to be to DMK more.
24:28The anti-incumbency vote which otherwise would have gone to ADMK
24:33and is going to TVK is an opportunity loss.
24:36Correct.
24:37Because it still means that the TVK is denting the vote share of DMK.
24:42Instead of going to ADMK, it's going to...
24:45So, the anti-incumbency vote which will have gone to ADMK.
25:44The anti-incumbency vote which will be the president of the
25:45foreign
26:01foreign
26:03foreign
26:03foreign
27:03I think you will vote for the last year.
27:06I will vote for the last year.
27:09I don't have a celebration.
27:12I do not have a day-to-day work.
27:14If I am so much more than a day,
27:17I will say that I will vote for the last year.
27:21If I don't have a vote for the last year,
27:28I will not have a vote for the last year.
27:30foreign
27:36foreign
27:38कर दो करना अपन पर यह लोग ग्रे मंत्री अमिच शा को देखने के लिए गाडियों पर बैठे हुए है
27:51और दूसी तरफ भी आप देखेंगे तो महिलाएं भी कई जगों पर निकली हुई है अब आते हैं सर महिला
27:58अरक्षण पर महिला अरक्षण का मुद्दधा पिछली बा
28:05but smyo
28:07foreign
28:09foreign
28:11foreign
28:14foreign
28:14foreign
28:21foreign
28:42नंटर बना दिजे पाँच तारीख के बाद आधी रात को भी एक
28:52ुच्छी स्कूटी लेकर अकेली निकल पाएगी और हमने करकर दिखाया हैं कई राज्यों यहां सरे आम बलातकार होते हैं सरे
29:01आम छेड़ खानी होती है और उल्टा महिला मुख्यमंत्री यह कहती है कि 7 बज़े के बाद महिला बाहर न
29:07निकले सर मानी चाहिए इनको लेकिन व
29:22तो अपने आप 33% महिलाओं को वाट मिलता मगर इन्हों ने ही विरोध किया कम से कम ममता जी
29:30ने इतना सोतना चाहिए था कि महिला होकर महिला अरक्षन का विरोध नहीं करना चाहिए
29:35अगला सवाल मेरा इस मुद्धे पर है एक बाद दिखा दीजे तस्वीर ये बीजेपी के कारिकरताओं का क्योंकि सभी कारिकरता
29:43जो है वो अपना जोश यहां पर दिखा रहे है प्रधान मंत्री को बीते दिन जो कॉंग्रेस अध्यक्ष मलिकारजुन खडगे
29:52ने कहा है सर
29:52अब उस पर मैं ग्रेमंत्री जी एक सवाल करना चाह रही हूँ मलिकारजुन खडगे ने टेररिस्ट का इस्तमाल किया पीएम
29:59के लिए लेकिन फिर उन्होंने कहा कि मैं कह रहा था कि वो आतंकित करते हैं
30:03जखे सब्दों को वदलने से बात चली नहीं जाती है जिस व्यक्ति ने देश में टेररिजम को खतम करने के
30:10लिए पूरा जीवन लगा दिया वो व्यक्ति को वो टेररिस्ट कहते हैं
30:15मुझे लगता है खरगे साब को राहूल का संग बरो बर लग गया है
30:21राहूल गांधी का सर है राहूल गांधी का सर कितनी सीटे है हम हाफवे मार्क पार करकर बहुत आगे निकलेंगे
30:31परसो सुबे में मिडिया को सीटे बताओ
30:34दन्यवाद आपका आज तक पर हमारे साथ जुड़ने के लिए तो यह थे ग्रे मंत्री अमिच्छा जिनके साथ एक विस्विट
30:39लंबा इंटर्व्यू भी हम लोग आज तक पर करने वाले हैं
30:42लेकिन ये उनके रोट्शो के बीच से उनसे आप चर्चा देख रहे थे आपको इनी तस्वीरों के साथ एक बार
30:48पूरी हलचल दिखा देते हैं
30:49चारों तरफ का चाहे वो पीछे का हिस्सा हो और दूसी तरफ चाहे वो आगे का हिस्सा हो
31:22Let's focus on what's happening
31:23in Bengal. Phase one
31:25of polling tomorrow and amid that
31:27huge controversy that's playing out
31:30of Malika Arjun Kargay's comment
31:31against Prime Minister Modi. Let's get you
31:33the latest news break.
31:36The election commission
31:38has taken note of
31:39Kargay's comment calling Prime Minister
31:41Modi a terrorist.
31:43The election commission has issued
31:46a notice now to the Congress
31:48Chief over his comment. Remember the Congress
31:50Chief right after referring to
31:52Prime Minister Modi as a terrorist immediately
31:53to clarify saying he meant that Prime Minister
31:55Modi is terrorizing
31:57using agencies. But the damage
31:59has been done. The BJP has been
32:01lashing out at Kargay over
32:03that particular comment and now
32:05the election commission after a complaint
32:07was filed by the BJP
32:09has also taken note of
32:11the comment made by Kargay
32:13and has issued a notice
32:15to him. So in all likelihood the Congress Chief
32:17now will have to also respond
32:19to that notice from the election commission.
32:21Let's get you. More breaking news coming in.
32:30There's been a whole lot of talk about the SIR exercise in Bengal
32:35and with phase one tomorrow
32:37the tribunal, the appellate tribunal
32:39which was in fact looking into
32:41some of the appeals has
32:43cleared 136 voter names.
32:45That means that essentially
32:46just about 136 voters
32:49names have been added in the
32:51voter list who can vote
32:53in the first phase. Remember that the
32:55SIR exercise in Bengal has
32:57been a big bone of contention.
32:59So much so it reached the Supreme Court
33:00and that's why
33:01these appellate tribunals were set up
33:03with judicial officers
33:05to look into all of the appeals
33:07that were put forth challenging
33:09people's names being removed
33:11from the voter rolls.
33:13And after the detailed exercise,
33:15sources telling us
33:16136 names have been added.
33:18Indrajeet Kundu is joining us
33:19live with more details on this.
33:21Indrajeet, you know, we've seen
33:22appeals, counters, all of that
33:25but following due process
33:26now in phase one
33:27just about 136 names have been added.
33:34Well, that's right.
33:35That is exactly what we are hearing
33:36from sources in the election commission
33:38right now.
33:39There wasn't any expectation
33:40that a few thousand
33:41or a few lakh voters
33:43will be added.
33:43This was last minute additions.
33:45There are 19 tribunals
33:47that are in operation right now
33:49but they also came into operation
33:50very, very late.
33:51So they have their tasks cut out.
33:53There are 27 lakh, you know,
33:55voters whose names have been deleted
33:57due to logical discrepancy
33:58which has to be disposed of.
33:59It will take a long time.
34:00However, there was a small breather
34:02that was given by the Supreme Court
34:03which said that
34:04if there are certain names
34:06which are cleared
34:06by 21st of April
34:08they will be able to vote
34:09in the first phase
34:10which will happen tomorrow.
34:11And by 27th of April
34:13if there are names cleared
34:14they will be able to vote
34:16in the second phase
34:17in those areas
34:18where the election
34:19will take place
34:19in the final phase.
34:20So this of course
34:21does come in as a breather
34:22for all those people
34:23who were anxious
34:25that they will not be able
34:26to cast their vote.
34:27But nonetheless
34:28this is a very, very
34:29minuscule number
34:30compared to the large number
34:31of deletions
34:32that have taken place
34:33and they would simply
34:34do not have the time
34:36to be able to,
34:37you know,
34:37get their names
34:38added to the electoral rolls
34:39for this election.
34:40All right, Indrajit
34:42getting us those details
34:43right now
34:44and as Indra pointed out
34:45extremely last minute
34:47essentially the entire exercise
34:49which is why you're seeing
34:50such a short number
34:51of just about 136
34:53being added
34:54to the voter rolls.
34:56And imagine that
34:56it's just hours to go
34:58for polling
34:59less than 24 hours
35:00before the first phase
35:02of polling in Bengal
35:03that's when these names
35:04have been added
35:05and this despite the fact
35:06that you had hundreds
35:07and thousands of people
35:07going ahead and challenging
35:09the fact that they were
35:10removed.
35:10from the voter rolls.
35:15Since we're seeing
35:16this big showdown
35:17over SIR in Bengal
35:19let's put the focus
35:19on that
35:20and what really
35:21the number of voters
35:22look like
35:23in phase one
35:24and overall
35:25as well
35:25the number of deletions
35:26that we've seen.
35:27Now if you look
35:28at phase one
35:29what we've done
35:29is focusing on
35:31the districts
35:31that are voting
35:32in phase one
35:33we took out
35:33the number of voters
35:34that were there
35:34in 2021.
35:36You compare that
35:37to 2026
35:38and overall
35:39a 4.6%
35:40deletion
35:41has been reported
35:42that's about
35:4217,38,117 votes
35:47deleted.
35:48Remember
35:48that of the
35:4917,38,136 appeals
35:53have been accepted
35:54and have been brought
35:55into the voter roll.
35:56So overall
35:56if you look
35:56at the phase one
35:57picture
35:57there's about
35:5817 lakh
36:00lesser number
36:01of people
36:01voting
36:02when compared
36:02to 2021
36:03and this is just
36:04if you look
36:05at the districts
36:05that are part
36:06of phase one
36:07which is in the map
36:08marked out
36:08in red there.
36:09That's phase one
36:10which goes into
36:11polls tomorrow.
36:12So that's the difference
36:13but what really
36:14does that mean?
36:15If I were to explain
36:16it to you
36:17of phase one
36:18versus phase two
36:18here's where
36:19it gets interesting.
36:20Phase one
36:21as I told you
36:2117.4
36:2317,38,000
36:25so if you round
36:26that up to
36:2617.4 lakh
36:27phase two
36:28this is where
36:29the bulk
36:30of voters
36:31fake
36:32whatever you want
36:33to call it
36:33in the SIR
36:34exercise
36:34have been removed
36:3573.4 lakh
36:37gone
36:38courtesy
36:39the SIR
36:40exercise
36:40and here's
36:41what's interesting
36:41to highlight
36:42as well
36:42that phase one
36:43is where the BJP
36:44is really pinning
36:46their hopes.
36:47Phase one
36:47is the most crucial
36:48where you look
36:49at the Bengal fight
36:50phase two
36:50is what's considered
36:51to be the
36:52Trinamore Congress
36:53stronghold
36:54this particular area
36:55including the city
36:55of Kolkata
36:57and that's where
36:57you've seen
36:58the maximum
36:58deletions
36:59of 73.4 lakh
37:01so that's a big
37:02picture for you
37:03as far as
37:04the two faces
37:04are concerned
37:05and remember
37:06that data
37:07for phase two
37:07could change
37:08because you still
37:08again have
37:09the whole
37:09tribunal process
37:10that's going on
37:11but what will
37:12be the SIR
37:14impact
37:14will it be
37:15so much
37:16and with the
37:16deletions
37:17that we've seen
37:17can this actually
37:18trigger a change
37:19in elections
37:20in voting patterns
37:22the SIR
37:23deletions
37:23is at 90.8 lakh
37:25if you look
37:26at overall
37:27across Bengal
37:28what's that number
37:29till April 7th
37:3090.8 lakh
37:31the reason we've
37:32highlighted that date
37:33is again
37:33because the process
37:34is still underway
37:35of appeals
37:36of accepting
37:37some of those
37:38voters as well
37:39now if I were
37:40to look at 2021
37:41the difference
37:42and the margin
37:43of victory
37:44for the TMC
37:45the number of
37:46votes polled
37:47for the TMC
37:48the number of
37:48votes polled
37:48for the BJP
37:49the difference
37:50was about 60.6 lakh
37:52essentially the TMC
37:53got 60 lakh
37:54votes
37:54more
37:55than the BJP
37:56so I want to
37:57highlight those
37:58two numbers
37:58for you
37:5960.6 lakh
38:00is the difference
38:01between TMC
38:01and BJP's margin
38:02there in 2021
38:0390.8 lakh
38:05deletions
38:05courtesy SIR
38:07so it's a game
38:07changer
38:08there's no doubt
38:09about that
38:09now the question
38:10is because you're
38:11seeing essentially
38:12this happening
38:13across Bengal
38:14in some pockets
38:15like I showed
38:15your phase 2
38:16versus phase 1
38:17what difference
38:18does that make
38:19what impact
38:20will it have
38:20you don't want
38:21to connect
38:22the two numbers
38:22but we've put
38:23it out for you
38:24to go ahead
38:25and see
38:25and decipher
38:26how you will
38:27off that
38:28but Home Minister
38:29Amit Shah
38:29speaking exclusively
38:30to India today
38:31spoke on the
38:31SIR controversy
38:32on the Malikar
38:34Junkarge
38:34comment against
38:35Prime Minister
38:36Modi
38:36and much more
38:37let's get you
38:38that exclusive
38:38conversation
38:39with Anjana
38:39Umkarshim
38:41I'll see you
38:45I'll see you
38:46in the next
38:48Raja
38:49BJP
38:50being
38:50a
38:50I'll see you
38:55in the next
38:55Shonarpur
38:56is
38:57in the next
38:5724
38:57Pagana
38:58here
38:59Shonarpur
39:00is
39:00Shonarpur
39:01and the
39:01Mr. Amit
39:02Amit Shah
39:02is
39:03the
39:03Randniti
39:04is
39:05the
39:09Shonarpur
39:15foreign
39:16foreign
39:18foreign
39:42ुपार्टिय जनता पार्टी की प्रत्यासी रूपा गांगुली के स्वागत में आया है
39:48SoIi is that
39:4911-11, I thought that
39:54Kolkata last time was the first time
39:55you were seven
39:56and then there was
40:00140, you wanted to change
40:01I wanted to say that
40:03sozusagen
40:03So how did you get rid of that
40:06the first time 9c.pah....
40:09Look at that
40:13we went from two to thirty-seven
40:15foreign
40:25foreign
40:25foreign
40:26foreign
40:26foreign
40:26foreign
40:27foreign
40:30foreign
40:30foreign
40:30foreign
40:32foreign
41:03foreign
41:32foreign
41:42foreign
41:43foreign
41:44foreign
41:44foreign
41:44foreign
41:46ुद्यमंत्री अमित शाह को देखने के लिए गाडियों पर बैठे हुए हैं और इधर दूसी तरफ भी आप देखेंगे तो
41:53महिलाएं भी कई जगों पर निकली हुई हैं अब आते हैं सर महिला अरक्षण पर महिला अरक्षण का मुद्दा पिछली
42:00बार के चुनाव में लग
42:15हजार के चकर से निकल जाएं जीस प्रकार से महिला हैं बंगाल में असुरक्षित है महिला सुरक्षण का मुद्दा ही
42:23बीजेपी के लिए बहुत बड़ा महतोपुन है महिलाओं के लिए भी महतोपुन क्यूंकि अगर महिला मुख्यमंत्री ऐसा कहे कि साथ
42:33बजे के बाद म
42:35Thank you very much.
43:05foreign
43:18foreign
43:19foreign
43:19foreign
43:30foreign
43:31I don't want to do that.
44:01I don't want to do that.
44:31I don't want to do that.
44:44I don't want to do that.
45:10I don't want to do that.
45:14I don't want to do that.
45:37I don't want to do that.
45:45I don't want to do that.
46:14I don't want to do that.
46:25I don't want to do that.
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