00:00There was something put out by ESPN's Seth Walder about 40 speed versus game speed.
00:11And for me, this is kind of interesting when it comes to Carnell Tate,
00:15who ran a 4-5, you know, 3, I think, at the Indy Combine day
00:21and then decided not to run on his pro day.
00:23Now, you know, we had a caller, an Ohio State fan, I think,
00:26that said he stumbled a little bit in the 40 time.
00:29And apparently, he was not overly worked up about his 40 time.
00:33But Seth Walder at ESPN wrote about 40 speed versus game speed.
00:40Puka Nakua's 40-yard dash at his 2023 pro day was 4-5-6.
00:48Not impressive.
00:50You know, pro days tend to be, you know, a bit faster than even the Combine,
00:57which is why I thought Carnell Tate would run on his pro day.
01:02But historically, pro days, maybe it's that it's a favorable and a friendly timer.
01:09But they tend to be faster times than the Combine.
01:14But Nakua was not, you know, because of that 40 time, just wasn't thought to be an elite prospect.
01:23He runs a lot faster than that when he's fully clothed in a football uniform in the midst of a
01:30competition
01:31on a field against guys who are trying to take his head off.
01:35Play speed is much different than top-end speed.
01:40And Seth Walder kind of spells it out.
01:42He writes, play speed is a composite of several performance metrics, such as top-end speed,
01:49speed over expected, and acceleration.
01:52And a model that combines it with 40 times better predicts NFL speed.
01:58In these cases, the average of a wide receiver's five fastest speeds on pass plays in their first four seasons
02:07is more important than 40 times alone.
02:12And the differences are often drastic, he writes.
02:17Two of the top receivers stand out with this measure.
02:28Omar Cooper Jr. ran a 4-4-2 at the Combine this year.
02:33But his play speed adjusted is 4-3-6.
02:39Makai Lemon ran a 4-4-6 at the Combine.
02:44But his play speed was actually higher than that at 4-5-3.
02:51Looking at the overall play speed is so much more important than looking at the 40 time.
03:00Now, they don't have the Tate information in here
03:04because Tate did not run a 40 time at his pro day.
03:10But play speed adjusted time, I guarantee you, would be very, very favorable for Carnell Tate.
03:17If you watch Carnell Tate at Ohio State, he does not run on the field like a guy who doesn't
03:28have top-end elite speed.
03:30He gets separation.
03:32He pulls away from people when fully uniformed.
03:36Big difference.
03:40So, Peter Schrager has been talking a lot the last couple of days.
03:44What is Schrager's track record?
03:46I really don't even care that much.
03:48But I saw a lot of people telling me on Twitter before the show that Schrager is a real savant
03:56when it comes to this time of year.
03:58Is that true or not?
03:59Do you know?
04:00I don't know his hit rate, but I know he's gotten at least a few, right?
04:04I mean, Schrager's in the know.
04:06Well, he thinks Washington is all in on Carnell Tate.
04:15I wouldn't mind Tate.
04:16I like Tate.
04:17He's my favorite receiver in the draft.
04:19If a tradeback is there at seven, I would trade back.
04:23But if they ended up taking Tate, I wouldn't mind it.
04:25And I've already said this, and I know many of you think I am absolutely nuts, but I would take,
04:32if you told me they're taking an offensive player at seven, I would take Tate over Love.
04:40I would.
04:41I think the position is much more impactful to winning, and I think it'll be more impactful in Washington's offense.
04:47And again, that is a player they desperately need on offense.
04:52I would love to see Tate and Terry as a combo, 1-2 or 1-1-A in that order.
05:03He wrote, the commanders are very, very high on Ohio State wide receiver Carnell Tate, Peter Schrager, yesterday.
05:11Quote, I've heard Carnell Tate is their guy.
05:14This could change, but Carnell Tate could be sitting there at seven.
05:17You pair him with Terry McLaurin, and you go to work.
05:22Okay.
05:24I mean, do it.
05:26I mean, at seven, they may not have a trade back opportunity.
05:30That is for sure.
05:32There's no guarantee they're going to have a trade back opportunity.
05:35Adam Peters said last week he thinks they'll end up selecting at seven because there won't be those opportunities in
05:41this draft.
05:42How much do you think our fan base would hate it if Tate and Love were on the board at
05:48the same time and Tate was the selection?
05:51My gut is that that would not be a popular pick in that moment.
05:56I'd be totally fine with it.
06:00You'd be upset, wouldn't you?
06:03Tate?
06:04Yeah.
06:05No.
06:06No.
06:08My order has been Styles, Downs, Love, and Tate is really the fourth guy that I'd be like,
06:16okay, I mean, Reuben Bain, I wouldn't go crazy over.
06:21David Bailey, I wouldn't go crazy over.
06:22I'd be happy with Bain.
06:24I think Bailey's going to be good, but there's still some question marks there.
06:27It just depends on how high he goes.
06:29But honestly, with our spot, you're pretty much, I don't want to say guaranteed a good player,
06:34but you've got the best shot.
06:36You know what I mean?
06:38Especially in this draft class because it feels very like after the top maybe 11 or 12,
06:43it kind of takes a fall off.
06:45I'm just telling you, if Love is there at seven and this team takes anybody but Love,
06:51I think that that's going to be a real downer for people.
06:56Yeah, well, Schefter, actually, I got some audio from his pod.
07:00They were talking about who that he thinks that the commanders are going to end up taking
07:06and discussing going through it, but he claims that Jeremiah Love will not make it past seven.
07:14He thinks he goes before seven, but he doesn't think he makes it past seven.
07:17Yeah, I think we talked about what he wrote yesterday.
07:19Yeah, I'm pretty sure he's brought it up on the show.
07:19Yeah, is that the floor is seven and three is the best case with Arizona.
07:26I'm just saying that there is an infatuation with Jeremiah Love.
07:33And look, it's not just an infatuation.
07:35A lot of these guys that have been doing this for years and evaluating prospects,
07:39whether they're credible or not, Jeremiah Love is on the overall top three
07:46on everybody's board, pretty much.
07:49He's a top three player on almost everybody's board.
07:52Now, I know that my guest, Thor Nystrom at 12, because I've already seen his big board,
07:58I know that he actually does not have Jeremiah Love in his top three.
08:03But people have decided that Jeremiah Love is the next great running back.
08:10And I think he's going to be really good.
08:12I don't think he's going to be the next superstar elite player.
08:16That's why I wouldn't take him at seven.
08:18And I would take other players in front of him, and I would definitely trade back
08:21if that were an opportunity.
08:23I just think that the idea that Love could be there at seven
08:27and that Washington could add him to a backfield that's already got Jaden Daniels
08:32is exciting to our fan base.
08:35And if they added Jeremiah Love, I'd be excited too, because it would be an upgrade,
08:40a major upgrade.
08:41And the combination of he and Daniels would be a hell of a lot of fun to watch.
08:47It's too early for me at seven for that position.
08:51But it's not like I don't think he's going to be a good player.
08:55But I'm convinced that that would be the most disappointing scenario on Thursday night.
09:03Love is there, and they don't take Love.
09:06And in terms of the players that would really, in order, really, I think,
09:12anger the fan base more than any other, is if they took Tate over Love, number one.
09:17That would be number one.
09:19I think people would understand, to a certain degree, Styles over Love.
09:26I don't think they'd understand Downs over Love.
09:30I don't think they'd understand Delane over Love.
09:33I don't think they'd understand Bain over Love.
09:37I don't think they'd understand, say, Jordan Tyson, if that was their number one wide receiver.
09:42Schrager says Tate's their number one wide receiver, and actually the guy that they're going to take,
09:48if he's there, at seven.
09:50And the only, I mean, if Bailey dropped, I don't think people would be that upset.
09:55Styles is the only one that wouldn't truly piss off our fan base if he's there, if Love's there.
10:06That's my sense of it.
10:11But we'll see.
10:12I don't think he's going to be there.
10:14Actually, part of me thinks he is going to be there.
10:16Part of me thinks a lot of this conversation about him is media-driven more than it is team-driven.
10:25We'll see.
10:25Can't wait for Thursday night.
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