- 12 minutes ago
Kevin Sheehan evaluates whether a second-half turnaround is genuinely feasible for the 2-4-1 Washington Commanders, reacting to a listener email about NFL unpredictability, calculating the mathematical path to nine wins, breaking down the impact of coaching and game-management deficits against upcoming opponents, and looking ahead to a pivotal matchup with Matthew Stafford and the Los Angeles Rams.
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00:00Got this from Ned in Chevy Chase.
00:04Ned wrote, Kevin, I've been a believer in your longtime NFL take
00:08that the league is impossible to figure out and to assume anything is dangerous.
00:14I think this applies to our team this year.
00:18Injuries in two new coordinators along with two road division games
00:22to open the season account for the record.
00:25None of what's happened should be predictive of what's to come.
00:30I wouldn't be surprised with any result.
00:36Yeah, I feel the same way.
00:39You know I do, Ned.
00:41Like, I mean, I just think about this season already.
00:43I mean, it's been a crazy season in which, you know,
00:47Tampa opened up with four losses,
00:50and now they're the favorite to win the NFC South.
00:55I mean, that's true right now.
00:57Now, you've got a team like Houston opened up with four straight losses.
01:03Now, the loss to the Giants hurt, but I don't think anybody wants to play the Houston Texans.
01:09I mean, you just kind of, you know, go throughout the league.
01:12I mean, Cleveland was in first place.
01:13Now they're in second place.
01:15Minnesota was undefeated.
01:18Rams started off two and four.
01:21Yeah, all of these things are true about the league.
01:23I mean, I'm not discounting anything from happening.
01:29I am still a believer.
01:32I think one of the reasons that Ned may have sent that is I do think through seven games you
01:39get a feel for things.
01:42It's not a small sample size anymore.
01:44It's not the largest of sample sizes.
01:47That's 17 games.
01:49But through seven games, yes, the injuries account for the start.
01:55I don't know about the two road division games.
01:57I mean, they weren't helpful.
01:59Certainly Washington's schedule.
02:01It's always about when you play somebody, not, you know, who you're playing.
02:06And it would have been better had both Philadelphia games been Sunday night with the next one still ahead.
02:14You know, because Philadelphia is done.
02:16They weren't done in the opener.
02:18It probably would be better had they played instead of the Colts on October 4th in London, the Titans in
02:29London on October 4th with the Colts later in the year.
02:32Because the Colts now have given up on the season, but they hadn't given up when they played them on
02:37October 4th.
02:38The Titans were a terrible football team a month ago.
02:42And all of a sudden, they are improving as a football team, especially on offense.
02:48You know, Arizona, I don't know what they're going to look like in a few weeks, but they've beaten in
02:54the last three, the Rams and the Cowboys.
02:57They also opened up the season right with a big road win against the Chargers.
03:02That may have been an indication.
03:03But look, it could turn around, right?
03:08It may be that by the time they get to games against Minnesota and Jacksonville, those teams might not be
03:15the same that they were in the beginning of the season, which were pretty much unbeatable.
03:20Maybe Minnesota has major quarterback issues and they've fallen off and Jacksonville may be the same thing.
03:26Who knows?
03:27It's hard because you can't predict what these teams are going to be when you face them.
03:31You know, it's totally week to week.
03:34The examples I gave of the Colts and the Titans, I guess, and the Eagles, you know, yes, they played
03:44the opener against a Philadelphia team that would eventually turn into a two and six football team.
03:48And looks like they're going to be major sellers before the trade deadline and have written off 2026.
03:56Watch them beat the Giants on Sunday.
03:59It'll probably happen.
04:01Hope it does.
04:02So sure, would have been better to play the two against Philadelphia after November 1st.
04:08Would have been better to play the Colts after they traded Quentin Nelson and DeForest Buckner.
04:17And perhaps even Jonathan Taylor.
04:19We'll see.
04:20But, yeah, the league, if you're suggesting that our conversation about our team could be completely different a month or
04:28two months from now, it could be.
04:30Now, in years past, I would not have, you know, on the table at 2-4-1 without the quarterback,
04:41the, you know, the expectation or even the possibility that something could turn around based on what I've seen so
04:49far.
04:50What changes it for me is that they do have the quarterback.
04:54He's got to be on the field, but he makes things possible.
04:58And as far as the two new coordinators, it's not unreasonable to say there was going to be a bit
05:04of a learning curve and that their overall, you know, comfort level and the production will get better as the
05:12season goes along.
05:14Now, to kind of suggest that none of what's happened should be predictive of what's to come, that's true.
05:23But the injuries have continued.
05:26You know, injuries were a problem early in the season, but injuries have continued.
05:30In the last two games, they've lost Terry McLaurin.
05:33And even before the last game, they lost Ron Payne, essentially, for the season.
05:37Somebody did ask me the other day about the possibility of getting Tunsil back.
05:42I don't think that that's impossible.
05:44I think that the timeline always included a potential return towards the end of the season if it made sense
05:51to bring him back.
05:53Right?
05:54Brian, I think, Brian, Max, I think I'm right about that.
05:57That Tunsil was not ruled out for the entire year.
06:00There could be a 21-day activation sometime in December, but obviously they'd have to be, you know, in a
06:07race.
06:07Correct.
06:08They'd have to be in it.
06:09At that point.
06:10But I don't look at, as an example, the Rams, the Giants, and the Bengals over the next three and
06:18say, well, they're going to be knocked out in three weeks because they're not going to beat the Rams or
06:22the Bengals.
06:22They have the Rams and Bengals at home.
06:24I think both of those games are winnable.
06:26None of these games, as standalone entities, are, you know, out of reach for a team like Washington that has
06:34a dynamic quarterback.
06:37None of them are.
06:39I do look at this team, though, through seven games, and I say, yeah, there's just, there are a lot
06:45of flaws.
06:46You know, number one is, you know, they're not, like, out-scheming and out-witting other sidelines on a weekly
06:55basis.
06:56They have already tied a game they should have won because of gross in-game mismanagement.
07:04And potentially, they did the same in a game that they could have had a better chance of winning in
07:11the game that followed against San Francisco.
07:13The game in London was certainly a game in which I don't think they lose 30-13 if they punt
07:20it on fourth and one.
07:21I think there's a better chance, even with their third-string quarterback, but they probably weren't going to win that
07:28game.
07:28So, I look at that, and I think, for me, the area that I have the least confidence in at
07:36this point is that they're not going to out-scheme and outwit other teams.
07:45Like, you've got a Sean McVay coach team and a John Harbaugh coach team coming up.
07:52You know, now, down the road, maybe there are better matchups as far as that's concerned, but Kevin Stefanski's a
08:00really good coach, and Kevin O'Connell's a good coach.
08:03Liam Cohen's doing a great job in Jacksonville.
08:05But just over the next three games, you've got matchups against Sean McVay over the next two and John Harbaugh.
08:15You know, with Denard Wilson doing an incredible job as a defensive coordinator, could be a Maryland head coach, target,
08:23former Terp, defensive back.
08:25You've got Matt Nagy doing a great job with multiple quarterbacks in New York.
08:30So, I mean, I look at it, and I think, okay, the offensive line actually isn't as bad as the
08:37fans make it out to be.
08:39They've been an excellent pass-blocking offensive line.
08:42I think it's got to improve run-blocking, and I think they've got to improve as a running team in
08:48general.
08:51The defensive backfield getting a little healthier with Trey Amos and Nick Cross back may not be the weakness.
08:57I think what we saw on Sunday night against, by the way, an offensive line, and I said this on
09:03Friday about the Eagles, you know,
09:06totally different look offensive line heading into the game Sunday night, that it was actually starting to play better.
09:12It looked good against Dallas.
09:14It wasn't that bad against Carolina, but Dallas defensively is a joke.
09:20And Washington attacked, you know, Bell on the outside over and over again with Chase on.
09:26But to see the success that they had with their pass rush combined with what they have been consistently through
09:34seven games,
09:35which is a good run-stopping team, I actually believe that's more important.
09:39I don't think you can be a great pass-rushing team that impacts games if you are simultaneously a bad
09:48run-stopping team.
09:49If you gave me the choice of either one, yes, the disruption and the game-changing plays happen more often
09:56with a great pass rush,
09:58but if you can't stop the run, you cannot be a great team.
10:03You can be, you know, a better-than-average team.
10:07You can't be a great team.
10:09You've got to be able to stop the run.
10:11They've done that.
10:11And now, with Amos back, with Cross back, you're seeing maybe the beginning Sunday night of a team
10:20that can marry up pass rush and pass coverage together in a more effective way.
10:26That's encouraging to me.
10:28I mean, I am more optimistic than less optimistic about what their defense is trying to do.
10:37I understand the Philadelphia offense stinks.
10:40The O-line, though, played pretty well, and they still had Barkley, and Barkley was more, he was fresher and
10:47looked healthier than he did Monday night against Dallas.
10:49By the way, his snap count proved that out.
10:51He played 22 snaps against our team Sunday night, only played in 10 plays, 10 snaps in the Monday night
11:00game against Dallas.
11:02But could the defense be coming together at a time?
11:06Is Steve Wilkes making a contribution?
11:09That whole thing's weird, but who cares if it's helping?
11:13I think offensively, obviously the loss of Terry isn't helpful, but maybe they can start figuring some things out to
11:22become more consistent.
11:23I think the thing that keeps me from jumping to, hey, man, here are my playoff scenarios heading into week
11:30eight,
11:31is that what I witnessed at the end of the Giant game and the San Francisco game in the second
11:39quarter
11:40and even the Indianapolis game is worrisome.
11:47Like, there's not an advantage that they are gaining in that area of the game.
11:52In fact, it's a disadvantage right now.
11:54They actually look shell-shocked in many ways.
11:57You know, Caller brought up yesterday the idea that at the end of the first half on Sunday night,
12:03when they had one timeout left and they had a third and one,
12:06that they took a shot at the end zone because they either wanted a touchdown on that play
12:12or to kick a field goal on the next play because they didn't want to have to face calling a
12:19timeout with 23 seconds to go
12:22and having a first and ten, let's just say at the Philadelphia 15.
12:25You know, I don't think that's true,
12:28but I do think what we saw in the second quarter against San Francisco was a bit of a result
12:35of what had happened
12:36at the end of the Giant game.
12:38You know, I think they're walking on eggshells a little bit when it comes to that part of the game
12:42right now.
12:43There isn't a lot of confidence.
12:45I don't know if they've fixed it.
12:47I don't know if there's a new voice.
12:49I don't know if that voice has a louder tone to it and how they have decided to fix that
12:57issue.
12:58But when you're 2-4-1, even in a bad division, and you've got ten left and you've got to
13:06win seven of those ten,
13:07let's just say, to get to 9-7-1, which I think would be a pretty good record
13:13as long as it includes a win over the Giants on Thursday night coming up a week from Thursday night.
13:21You're just going to have so many games that are going to be decided by the finest of lines
13:27and the, you know, just the thinnest of margins.
13:32And that part of the game is not a part of the game that I'm confident that our team has
13:39figured out.
13:40And, you know, let's just say they were better and the defense really was on the verge of becoming
13:47middle of the pack.
13:48Good run stopping.
13:50Better than middle of the pack run stopping.
13:51Currently, per DVOA, the ninth best rush defense in the NFL.
13:58And let's just say the pass rush because of better coverage on the back end with Amos back.
14:03With just an understanding of what they are defensively and better, you know, cohesion,
14:09better play calling, whatever it is.
14:11They become a middle of the pack defense.
14:16Offensively, Jaden keeps getting more comfortable.
14:19He just completed the first time since his rookie year playing in three games start to finish in a row.
14:26There are some things there offensively and defensively I could see coming together to a point
14:31where they'd be a much better team than they are now.
14:34But you're still going to have, out of your final ten, so many close games that the part of the
14:44game
14:44that may be the difference in some of those close games, I'm not confident in right now.
14:48So, yes, Ned and Chevy Chase, I do believe that this league just is so dynamic, so ever-changing.
14:58And teams we think aren't very good right now may be really feisty and tough at the end of the
15:04year,
15:04and vice versa.
15:05And Washington could be one of those teams.
15:07But they dug themselves a hole and now have to kind of hit the inside straight.
15:13You know, they went into these final 11 needing eight of the final 11, maybe seven, but probably eight.
15:20They got the first one.
15:22Now they need seven, maybe six of the final ten.
15:25And I'm expecting a lot of games in which the decision-making by those in charge of game management,
15:33clock management, score management, et cetera, are going to matter.
15:37And I don't see that area being an area of confidence anytime soon.
15:44So that's why I kind of view it as, yeah, there's a possibility they could be a better team on
15:49both sides of the ball.
15:51They could be a better team than they've been at special teams.
15:53We saw a leap forward on Sunday night.
15:56McCaffrey had two great returns.
15:58Drew Stephens hit a clutch kick.
16:00That second kick from 56 yards out was a big kick in a 10-0 game.
16:06Yeah.
16:07I just think that it probably would end up being five more of these, you know, out of the final
16:14ten.
16:14And seven, nine, and one, somewhere in there.
16:17And that probably won't be good enough, even if they beat the Giants as one of the final five.
16:22You know, the Giants are actually the team right now that has the most consistency week in and week out.
16:32They also have more of an identity than anyone else has.
16:37Now, the quarterback is a question mark.
16:39They play the Eagles on Sunday before they play us next Thursday night.
16:43And they do still have teams like the Jags and the Niners and the Seahawks and the Lions and the
16:49Cowboys again and the Browns.
16:51Who knows what Cleveland will look like?
16:53Who knows what any of those teams will look like by the time they get there?
16:55But right now, they play a lot of those games that we've already played, or at least some of them.
17:01You know, 49ers, Seahawks.
17:04So, yeah.
17:07Could the Giants lose Sunday against the Eagles?
17:11I mean, they get the Eagles twice still.
17:14That's a benefit to play the Eagles now twice the rest of the way, rather than having played them super
17:21early.
17:22It is a weird league.
17:24I think, I've said this for years, bettors understand it more than just fans that don't bet.
17:30But I think, you know, fans now understand, even, you know, hardcore fans that follow it week to week.
17:37Every week, there is just, there are a handful of games where you're like, I did not see that coming.
17:44I did not see the Cardinals beating the Cowboys.
17:49I did not see a team winning a game without completing a pass.
17:54I did not see the Bears going into Seattle and manhandling the Seahawks.
17:59I didn't see the Titans taking the Bengals to overtime.
18:02We're now at nine games this year.
18:07Nine games this year, which have included, actually ten, because Jacksonville went off as a double-digit favorite, didn't they,
18:15over the Colts on Sunday?
18:18I think they did.
18:19I don't think they were double-digit.
18:20I think it might have been around nine.
18:22Okay, so we're at nine games of big favorites this year.
18:28And five have won outright, and another three have covered.
18:35There's only one game in which a big favorite this year has covered, and that was the 49ers over the
18:42Dolphins in week two.
18:43Unless Jacksonville went off as a double-digit favorite.
18:48I'll have to look that up.
18:49Because they hammered the Colts.
18:51That line kept going up, Max, towards game time.
18:54It did.
18:55So did the Cincinnati line.
18:58Yeah, I got it at 12.5 right before kickoff.
19:01I think went to 13.5.
19:03I missed the point.
19:06Yeah.
19:07Bad value.
19:08Jacksonville, where is it?
19:15Jacksonville went off at minus nine and a half.
19:18So that actually fits the criteria.
19:20So now we've got two nine-point-or-greater favorites that have covered out of ten for the season.
19:30And we've had five outright nine-point-or-greater underdogs win.
19:35And Tennessee was nearly the sixth.
19:38And it would have been the fourth consecutive week.
19:40Remember, we said this last week.
19:42What's the game?
19:43Tennessee, Cincinnati.
19:44And then I think we said, yeah, that doesn't seem like a possibility.
19:48And yet they were up in the fourth quarter with a chance.
19:52The biggest favorite, Jacksonville's a nine-and-a-half-point favorite over the Ravens in Baltimore on Thursday night.
19:59Kansas City's a nine-and-a-half-point favorite over the Jets.
20:05And the 49ers are double digits over the Raiders at home.
20:09Man, we have a lot of big favorites this week.
20:12And Seattle's a ten-and-a-half-point favorite over Arizona on Sunday.
20:18Huge favorites this week.
20:20Washington's not a huge underdog.
20:22That line's five now in spots.
20:24I give them a chance Sunday.
20:27I really do give them a chance.
20:29This is one of those weird setups.
20:32West Coast team, two wins in a row, feeling like they're back to a certain degree after starting, you know,
20:40in disappointing fashion.
20:41Traveling East, playing an early start.
20:44Washington off, you know, sort of a season-saving win.
20:48I can tell you this right now watching Matt Stafford.
20:52You ready for this one?
20:53Matt Stafford hasn't been very good this year.
20:57Matt Stafford has not been great this year.
21:00He's thrown eight interceptions in eight games this year.
21:05He's gotten pressured, and he's put the ball up for grabs this year.
21:11And Washington is coming off its best by far and actually one of the better pass-rush pressure games in
21:20the NFL this year against Tanner McKee.
21:23I get it.
21:25And there's no Puka Nakua out there Sunday night.
21:28That's for sure.
21:30I understand that, too.
21:32But could I see a game in which Trey Amos being back, cross, team starting to feel it a little
21:39bit defensively, one o'clock, grayish kind of a day, crowds into it?
21:45God, they need the crowd Sunday to be electric.
21:48And it's loud, and it's third and six, and Stafford puts one up for grabs.
21:53Yeah, I could see that Sunday, a couple of those.
21:56And then all of a sudden, we're in the fourth quarter, and it's 24-21, one way or the other,
22:04with a shot.
22:06I'll tell you this, if they win Sunday, that Giant game Thursday night's going to feel really big.
22:12We will have gone in two weeks from season's over, fire everybody, trade everybody, to, oh, my God, if they
22:21beat the Giants, they could be tied for first place or in first place.
22:25If the Giants were to lose Sunday and Washington wins, that game would be for outright first place.
22:34Settle down, big fella.
22:36Settle down.