- 14 minutes ago
Kevin Sheehan outlines the key strategies for the Washington Commanders to secure a Week 4 victory over the Indianapolis Colts in London, focusing on containing Jonathan Taylor, forcing Daniel Jones into mistakes, and maximizing Marcus Mariota’s efficiency in the passing game.
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00:00Keys to a win over the Colts on Sunday, 9.30 a.m.
00:03The Colts, by the way, three and a half, even four point favorites.
00:07I'm seeing some fours out there.
00:11They might be in the smell test, the Colts.
00:14We'll see because that number is kind of high
00:17considering Washington just beat the defending champs.
00:20All right, keys to a win over the Colts on Sunday.
00:26I watched a bunch of Colts stuff yesterday,
00:30and I want to start with this.
00:32This is not a dynamic offensive football team.
00:36This really should be the easiest test of the year so far
00:40for Washington's defense,
00:41and they've really been up against it the last two weeks.
00:46C.D. Lamb, Dak Prescott, George Pickens,
00:48even a running game and the run defense has been excellent,
00:51but Dallas didn't really try that hard to run the football.
00:55Seattle definitely didn't try as much,
00:58maybe a little bit harder than Dallas did in the run game,
01:02but JSN's an impossible cover.
01:06Cup, Shahid, Speed.
01:09Indianapolis without a vertical threat,
01:11and they don't have one.
01:12Josh Downs is a good receiver, don't get me wrong,
01:14and I think he is capable of beating you deep,
01:18but not like Pierce.
01:19But this is a team that needs to grind it out.
01:24You know, they need long 11-12 plate drives,
01:29conversions on third downs,
01:31staying on the field with a Daniel Jones tight window throw,
01:35a Josh Downs who can get separation.
01:37He's the one.
01:39Keenan Allen had six catches last week.
01:41He's had some off-the-field issues.
01:44He's still capable because he's such a good contested catch guy.
01:48He's such a good route runner,
01:49but he's certainly not going to threaten you downfield.
01:52Laquan Treadwell, remember him, first-round pick,
01:54the year Josh Doxon got selected.
01:57He's a – Laquan Treadwell has been in the league since 2016.
02:02I don't even know how many teams he's played for at this point.
02:05Josh Doxon's been out of the league for several years.
02:07Treadwell looked like he should have been out of the league,
02:09but he's still there.
02:11He actually can run, and they hit a deep one to him
02:14late in the game against the Chiefs.
02:16But this is really a team that, you know, for them to be successful,
02:21they had 15 third-down attempts in a football game.
02:25That is a lot of third-down attempts,
02:28but it tells you kind of how they're playing.
02:31You know, they're not making first downs on first and second down.
02:35They're trying to get into third and three, third and two,
02:39and keep the chains in their favor.
02:42They had, like I said, last week, 15 third-down attempts.
02:46They converted seven of them.
02:48Against the Chiefs, they had 12 third-down attempts.
02:51They converted five of them,
02:52but then they converted two fourth-downs against the Chiefs.
02:56Against the Colts in the opener, double-digit third-down attempts.
03:02Ten of them.
03:02This is not an explosive offense.
03:04This is a completely different test for Washington's defense.
03:09And it's going to be a game in which I think when we come out of this one
03:14and we've got four games under our belt to evaluate,
03:18two of them against ridiculously explosive offensive teams,
03:23one of them against a team that hadn't figured it out
03:26and still hasn't figured it out offensively in Philadelphia,
03:29but did produce explosives against Washington in the opener.
03:34And now an Indy team that just is looking to create a 14-15 play drive
03:43where they convert on four or five third-downs and maybe a fourth down,
03:47and somehow they end up winning the time of possession by 10 or 11 minutes.
03:52Because I'll tell you what, defensively, they're not very good either.
03:55They have taken a step back defensively so far.
04:00It's early.
04:01It's early.
04:02And they played Baltimore, and they played Kansas City,
04:05and they played Houston.
04:06Three capable offensive football teams.
04:09But defensively, for me, this is going to be so interesting to watch
04:14because it's a completely different matchup for them,
04:17and I think it's a favorable matchup for them.
04:20I think they're starting to get it together.
04:23From a run-stopping standpoint, the strength has been Kinlaw, Payne,
04:27and Owe and Chason as edge setters,
04:30and certainly the linebackers in the run game.
04:34We have not seen Nick Cross since the Dallas game when he was kept overnight.
04:40By the way, do we know specifically what the Cross injury was?
04:44Remind me to ask Ben about that because I don't think it's been reported
04:47as to why he ended up staying in that hospital in Dallas overnight,
04:52coming back the next day, and he's been out now.
04:54I mean, I hope he's okay.
04:56But he's missed two games, and there's been very little.
05:02Has there been anything specific on the Nick Cross injury?
05:06No, I haven't seen anything specific reported about Nick Cross at all.
05:10I wonder if it's something that they actually just don't want to talk about.
05:12I don't know.
05:13Internal stuff is scary, so it wouldn't shock me.
05:16Yeah, I mean, but usually if it's, you know,
05:19a lacerated kidney or something like that, you know what it is.
05:22Didn't like Noah Brown have that last year or something?
05:24Yeah, I think so.
05:25Or was that two years ago?
05:27I don't remember.
05:29So I'll start with this because I'm going to focus on Washington defensively
05:34because I actually really like this matchup for Washington.
05:38You've got to stop the run.
05:40That's number one because Indy's going to try to run the football,
05:44and they're going to try to run the football, obviously, with Jonathan Taylor,
05:48who if you look at the numbers for Jonathan Taylor so far this year,
05:52this through three games, he's averaging less than four yards per carry.
05:57He's never averaged less than 4.4 yards per carry for his career in any season.
06:05His average yards per carry for his career heading into this season was five yards per carry,
06:12and he is 3.9 yards per carry this year.
06:16There are some advance numbers on Indy's offense that don't show a great offensive football team.
06:24And, again, I think it's not that they're not a great offensive football team.
06:28They're just different than what Washington has faced.
06:30But I will say this about Jonathan Taylor and watching him.
06:34He still looks like Jonathan Taylor.
06:36Like, he still looks, and he will break off a big one, you know,
06:43almost like, you know, you might bottle him up for a two-yard run, a three-yard run,
06:48maybe even a one-yarder, a no-gainer, and then he's going to rip off a 22-yarder.
06:53He's going to rip off a 30-yarder.
06:55He is still Jonathan Taylor.
06:57He is big.
06:58He is strong.
07:00He is so good with his patience and his vision,
07:03and then, by the way, can catch the football out of the backfield.
07:06So if you're looking at Jonathan Taylor's numbers so far and you think,
07:10ah, he's not the same player anymore, he's averaging 3.9 yards per carry.
07:16He, last week against Houston's defense, 23 for 68.
07:20I'll tell you one thing they don't do.
07:22They don't stop giving him the ball.
07:25Even if they're not moving it, they are going to stay ahead of the chains.
07:29And the thing about him is, again, you might get him for a two or a three,
07:35but even if you get him for three times two, they like to be in a third and four or
07:40a third and three.
07:40They're fine with that.
07:42It's how they're playing.
07:43I'm just warning anybody that thinks that because Jonathan Taylor's average yards per carry
07:49is the lowest of his career so far,
07:51he doesn't look anything other than like Jonathan Taylor when you watch them.
07:57He, and he's still capable, very capable.
08:01So they've got to stop the run and they've got to stop the run cold.
08:06Like Daniel Jones, very capable with no vertical threat,
08:11but with Tyler Warren and Josh Downs and Keenan Allen and maybe even Mo Alleycox and Treadwell,
08:18he will hang in there.
08:21We've seen it with Daniel Jones.
08:22He'll hang in there and he'll squeeze one in on a third and three to move the chains,
08:27you know, or to set up fourth and inches and then they'll go for it.
08:31And it could get frustrating if the defense doesn't stop the run cold
08:36and create second and third and longs and get them out of comfortable down in distance
08:42because they're capable of maintaining the football for a long period of time.
08:46And that's really their formula.
08:48Their formula is, because they're not a good defensive team right now,
08:53is we're not explosive without Alec Pierce.
08:56We can't threaten anybody vertically.
08:58We're not going to scare anybody with speed.
09:01We're going to grind it out.
09:03And if Jonathan Taylor's averaging 2.9 yards per carry, three-point yards,
09:08we're still giving it to him.
09:09We're running the clock and we're going to try to get ourselves into third and twos,
09:13third and threes, and then our quarterback is good enough to squeeze some in there
09:18and keep the chains moving.
09:20And that's what they've done.
09:22Now, he's also turned the ball over.
09:25He had two fumbles and an interception last year.
09:29He's got three interceptions in three games.
09:31So that part of the Daniel Jones story this year is the kind of story we like.
09:38But they faced Houston's defense, all right?
09:41Houston's defense is still arguably the best in the NFL on paper.
09:45It's not what our defense is.
09:47So I think the most important part of Sunday is to stop the run and stop the run.
09:54And I'm not talking about, you know, holding them to less than four yards per carry.
09:59I'm talking about somewhere around three yards per carry.
10:02You've got to create second and sevens, second and eights.
10:06And they've been good at getting run-stopping TFLs this year.
10:10They had three key ones last week against Seattle.
10:13Seattle couldn't run the football against Washington.
10:16Dallas didn't really try to run the football.
10:19Indy's going to try.
10:21That, you know.
10:23Now, does Washington have to load up the box, or should they load up the box with no vertical threats?
10:29Look, there are no vertical threats, but Josh Downs is a good receiver.
10:33He's a very good receiver.
10:34And we know we don't have great corners.
10:36We don't have a great pass defense.
10:39So they may feel like we've been struggling throwing the football, but maybe this week we can get healthy on
10:44Washington.
10:45Maybe we can stretch the field.
10:47Maybe Indy's thinking we couldn't do it, and we had to grind out drives against Kansas City and against Houston.
10:53But we can actually go up top even without a vertical threat against this secondary.
10:58It's going to be interesting, that part of the matchup.
11:00Indy's offense, Washington's defense, stop the run and create uncomfortable down and distance situations for an offense that really has
11:11struggled to throw the ball downfield.
11:14I think that's number one in this game.
11:17Now, offensively, this is going to be a much easier test as well than the one they just faced.
11:24It'll look more like the Cowboys.
11:27Washington, even with Marcus Mariota in this game, should be able to move the football.
11:32Now, if you look at, you know, just reading a box score, you're like, well, Indy did a decent job
11:38against Houston.
11:39Houston only had 223 yards.
11:41They were 4 of 11 on third down.
11:43But that's because Indy's best defense in that game was its offense.
11:48It stayed on the field, converting seven third downs, two for two on fourth downs.
11:53They stayed on the field, and they ended up winning the time of possession battle, like 35 to 25.
11:59They ran 20 more offensive plays in the game than Houston did.
12:06So Washington's defense has to get Indy off the field, and I think it'll be easier than the last two
12:11weeks.
12:11It should be.
12:12And then offensively, this is not Seattle's defense.
12:16This is not Philadelphia's defense.
12:18Indy struggled defensively.
12:21And they're well coached.
12:23I mean, you know, it's still, you know, Lou Anarumo, the Cincinnati defensive coordinator forever, has been in Indy for
12:33a few years with Shane Steichen.
12:35He can really scheme it up, and they've got some players.
12:38That's the thing.
12:39I mean, DeForest Buckner's a good player.
12:40I love Latu from UCLA, although he's, you know, we had the guy on from Indy yesterday, and he said,
12:46you know, it's been a little bit of a disappointment this year.
12:49But they have struggled defensively, and I think Washington can really, should be able to move the football through the
12:57air.
12:58This should be a big opportunity for Chigakonkwo in his game back.
13:02This should be a big opportunity for Terry and Diggs.
13:06And so offensively, stay ahead of the chains and make it uncomfortable for Indy, because I don't think they can
13:14defend second and four or third and two.
13:17And I think Washington has the ability with Marcus, even Mariota at quarterback on Sunday, to stay ahead of the
13:24chains.
13:25This is really kind of the Seattle matchup.
13:28It's like you go into it, and it's like, wow, you're going to need plus three in the turnover margin,
13:32plus two, worst case, just to hang in there.
13:34Dallas on the road, it's like you've got to limit the explosives.
13:37You cannot let C.D. Lamb and George Pickens be wide open and have easy pitch and catch opportunities.
13:44You know, Philly, it's week one.
13:47There's not a whole lot that we knew going into it, but you knew that they had a defense and
13:50a coach that can really coach defense.
13:52This game, I think, just looks like, actually, Washington has advantages.
13:59I'm actually surprised Indy is a three-and-a-half, four-point favorite in this game.
14:04And I'm sure a big part of it is no Jaden Daniels.
14:08He's worth five points to the point spread.
14:10All right, we learned that before the season started, that five points difference between him and Mariota to the point
14:17spread.
14:17So if he were playing this week, now, would it be five points this week with him coming off an
14:21injury?
14:21I don't know.
14:22But if he were playing this week, Washington would likely be, you know, a one-point favorite in the game,
14:28one-and-a-half-point favorite.
14:29But I look at this Indy team, and I'm like, they don't scare anybody offensively.
14:35They are struggling defensively.
14:38Their best defense is their offense and their third-down conversions and their fourth-down conversions.
14:44And Washington, I think the key to this game is what they do on defense.
14:48They've got to get off the field, and they're capable of getting off the field against Indianapolis.
14:54And it'll feel like, you know, it'll feel like they were playing like 11-on-12 the last two weeks,
15:01and this week it'll feel more like 11-on-11.
15:04And I think that's going to be a benefit, not to mention Frankie Louvoo coming back.
15:10Indianapolis has a kicker in Spencer Schrader who's 8-for-8, and they've got a very good punter.
15:15So special teams in field position in this game will be big.
15:19If they can force punts, if they can force field goals, that's great.
15:22But they've got a good punter, and they've got a good field goal kicker.
15:26He's missed a PAT, but he's 8-for-8 on field goals.
15:29And last week had the game winner with 16 seconds to go from 53 yards out to beat the Texans,
15:3819-17.
15:39Had four field goals in that game.
15:43Yeah, you know, other than that, the cliche stuff, you know,
15:46I don't think they need to win the turnover battle this week.
15:49Indy, just so you know, lost the turnover battle, minus three against Houston.
15:55And, I'm sorry, yeah, Indy last week against Houston in the turnover margin, minus three,
16:05and they still won the football game.
16:07And Washington was plus three and barely won the football game.
16:12And they both had excellent opponents, Seattle and Houston.
16:16Houston, a desperate team last week, and couldn't get it done against Indy.
16:21So, to me, defense against that offense, if we're in here on Monday talking about five explosive plays
16:30that Indy had that made the difference, then it's going to be a long year defensively.
16:37It's going to feel like at least, you know, they can't figure it out on the back end.
16:41I would hope that what we've seen from the run defense is legit, and I think it is,
16:47but they're going to get tested this week.
16:49So, if five explosives happen, and two of them are Jonathan Taylor 20-plus yard runs,
16:56then we're going to have a new outlook on what the rush defense really is.
17:00But I like the matchup.
17:02I think this is a matchup in which we can feel really good,
17:05and we're going to feel even better about our team defensively on Monday.
17:10And if we don't, that's going to be a big red flag.
17:14I understand why Dallas and Seattle can do what they do, you know, offensively.
17:20They're going to do that to a lot of teams.
17:23Indy shouldn't do that against our defense on Sunday.
17:28Yeah, stop the run, keep Indy in, you know, uncomfortable down-and-distance situations
17:35because they're very comfortable in comfortable down-and-distance situations.
17:40And then offensively, stay on the field.
17:43Convert and score.
17:45You know, red zone will have – these games in, you know, neutral sites,
17:50a lot of it will come down to red zone execution.
17:52You know, if your team is two for four and the other is one for four,
17:56that's probably the difference in the game.
17:58And, again, the cliche stuff, stay away from the penalties,
18:01limit the penalties because they're drive killers, and don't turn the ball over.
18:06I don't feel like they need a plus one or a plus two to win this game.
18:11I don't.
18:12I think that they could win a 19-17 or a 23-21 game
18:18with being dead even in the turnover margin.
18:22This actually should be a really good football game.
18:25Two 1-2 teams that have a legit chance in their own minds to get to 2-2.
18:30You know, and Indy, by the way, comes back against the Steelers on the road.
18:35Washington gets the Giants at home.
18:37So you're thinking if you're a Washington, if we get this one,
18:41we got a chance to be 3-2 after week five.
18:46Not going to be easy, but a really intriguing matchup between these two teams.
18:52All right, 3-0-1, 2-3-0, 0-9-80, 3-0-1, 2-3-0, 0-9-80.
18:59If you want to weigh in on the Mariota decision, he's going to start.
19:03Jaden Daniels will sit.
19:05He will be out for the game.
19:07You can do that.
19:08Other than that, I want to hear from you as to what you think Washington needs to do
19:13to beat the Colts in London on Sunday.
19:16Kevin Sheehan Show, the Team 980 and the Team980.com.
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