00:02so warren sharp uh who covers the league does we've had warren on the show many times
00:09really good with gambling stuff um advanced numbers stuff he does uh you know the net
00:17rest advantage thing that we talk about when the schedule comes out every year because it
00:22has proven to be a real thing the teams with the least amount of rest over the course of
00:27you know 18 weeks 17 games tend to perform at a worse rate than those with more rest meaning you
00:35know a sunday to thursday or against an opponent that you know is coming off a bye is is never
00:41a
00:42a really good rest situation and usually doesn't turn out well for the team um he does this thing
00:47every year where he looks at the draft and looks at everybody's class and then compares where they
00:54drafted the players to an actual consensus of mock drafts there are a couple of guys out there
01:05ben robinson's one or reef hassan is another they put together these consensus mock drafts where they
01:11take a lot of mock drafts ben did it with like top 10 guys but these are in the dozens
01:17of mock drafts
01:18and they put together a consensus big board that says here are all the players that are eligible for
01:24the draft and this is the consensus spot in which the mock drafters believe this player should be
01:31selected and then you actually can measure uh you know a prospect on where he's taken versus where he
01:39was supposed to be taken now it's mock draft consensus uh this isn't the 32 nfl teams consensus
01:48on on their boards um so we are talking about those that aren't getting paid to pick the players
01:55but it's one way to measure you know there are people that invest a lot of time year round to
02:02trying to
02:03evaluate these players to the best of their ability and they take from all of these mock drafts and you
02:09end
02:09up with kind of something that um uh warren sharp refers to as draft capital over expectation dcoe it's a
02:21it's a metric and it measures expected capital used on a prospect versus the actual capital used all
02:30right again where the player was picked versus where the player was supposed to be picked well
02:36with warren sharp's group of mock drafts that he used off the consensus big boards developed by ben
02:43robinson and narif hassan washington had the best overall dcoe of the 32 teams that drafted over the
02:55weekend draft capital over expectation and i'll tell you why um here was the class all right ready
03:02sonny styles um expected to be picked at number five that was his consensus big board number was
03:10picked at seven so washington got two spots of value with sonny styles see how this works now let's go
03:18to
03:18the number one overall washington's fifth round selection of joshua joseph's the edge uh he was expected
03:27to be picked at 77 so somewhere early in the third round he was picked at number 147 that's a
03:35gain of
03:3670 spots all right or 70 spots below where he should have been taken washington drafted joshua joseph's
03:44if you believe in this that's tremendous value katron allen is the running back as ben mentioned in his
03:51email that i read in the opening segment to the show i liked katron allen more than i liked singleton
03:57at penn state i think allen's got a chance to be a good runner i like him we'll see you
04:03know i like
04:04damian martinez a lot last year before the draft he's not even in the league um katron allen the
04:10running back from penn state was selected by washington at number in the sixth round at number 187 he was
04:17supposed to be picked based on the consensus of all these mock drafters at 130 so they got him 57
04:23spots
04:24lower than where he was supposed to go the center from michigan state matt gulbin was supposed to be
04:31picked at 168 he was picked by washington at 209 it's a gain of four that's 41 spots lower and
04:38it goes
04:39on and on antonio williams the wide receiver from clemson i'll tell you there is a wide receiver i wish
04:45they had drafted there um i did not talk a lot about antonio williams last week uh because i i
04:52actually
04:52really liked zachariah branch from georgia but i know that there were some potential character
04:58things we'll see um but williams was expected to be taken at 66 all right which would have been a
05:05compensatory pick at the end of the second round and he was picked instead early in the third round
05:09at number 71 by washington so good job washington number one in the league number one uh they got
05:20really good value based on that specific objective criteria taking all the big boards and saying here's
05:31where each player is supposed to be picked washington got got tremendous value based off of a consensus
05:38of mock drafters now what does that mean relative to the teams you know the 49ers were asked a lot
05:45because these consensus big boards are now out there um and uh discussed by by fans so you take a
05:53team
05:53like the 49ers in this in this draft they took several players much earlier than they were supposed
06:00to go including their first pick in the draft uh dijon stripling the wide receiver from ole miss he was
06:06not supposed to be the first pick in the second round he was supposed to be more of a uh
06:11late night
06:11two pick um kaylon black the uh running back from indiana was supposed to go late in day three not
06:19early on night two um but john lynch was asked about that and he said yeah we don't i don't
06:28need we don't
06:28pay attention to the consensus mock draft boards we have our own board and i'm sure a lot of teams
06:33have
06:33their own boards i have no idea if you were to take all nfl teams and their boards and their
06:40numbers
06:40on these players where they had them if it would be close to the mock drafters i don't i don't
06:45have
06:45any idea i would guess that there would be so many outliers among the 32 teams that it wouldn't
06:52resemble necessarily the consensus of the mock draft boards that they're just getting evaluated much
07:00differently and remember they have so much more information on the personal stuff on the medical
07:05stuff which the mock drafters generally do not have and that tends to be a rather important piece
07:12of information is this guy a terrible person or is he an injured person usually the teams know that
07:19and a lot of times the mock drafters don't which would mean that their boards would be probably
07:24different than the consensus of the mock draft boards but it's one objective way to say without
07:34telling me what you love about the players because most of you didn't even watch any of these players
07:40maybe you've watched some highlights since they've actually drafted i guarantee you most of you have not
07:47watched like all 22s of the the players that they selected um but that's a way to evaluate it so
07:55from
07:55that standpoint okay looks like they didn't reach for really anybody in the draft the quarterback that
08:03they took from rutgers in the seventh round wasn't actually supposed to get drafted but in the seventh
08:09round there are a lot of players that weren't supposed to get drafted that end up getting drafted
08:13the seventh round is best player available but usually best player available for a need and they
08:20view you know quarterback as a need they don't have a third string quarterback necessarily on their
08:24roster and eventually marcus mariotta is either going to leave or retire um and yeah uh so that based on
08:33that golf clap they got some good value now let's check back in three years to see if they got
08:40it right
08:41with sunny styles see if they got it right with antonio williams i like antonio williams i'll just
08:46say this again for what it's worth for me zachariah branch is is a mini tyreek hill now i don't
08:56think
08:56anybody's tyreek hill for real but if you watched a lot of college football and you watched a lot of
09:02georgia this dude is electric with the ball in his hands and i think he was a better route runner
09:09a
09:09better receiver over the middle even though most of his receptions were at the line of scrimmage
09:13but i know that there were some issues potential you know per you know personal issues they for all
09:21i know they didn't even have him on the on the uh on their board a lot of these players
09:25that you may
09:26say well why didn't they draft this guy well we didn't have him on the board because we know
09:30something about him that you don't i liked ted hurst i know ben talked a lot about him on the
09:35show
09:35from georgia state you know especially given his size where williams again is another primarily
09:42inside guy i'm not saying he can't play on the outside i do after watching more of him after
09:49he got drafted i do think that he looks like a polished route runner and they clearly like
09:56a lot about what he brings to the table you knew they were going to draft a receiver more likely
10:01than
10:01not you knew that there was going to be another edge rusher you knew there was going to be a
10:04center
10:04you know from a needs standpoint we'll find out if they got the right players but from a needs
10:12standpoint they've done a really nice job since the season end ended the last six weeks there has
10:19been an emphasis on defense and on filling some of these needs with hopefully better players we won't
10:27know until they start actually playing nfl games
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