00:00Prediction Markets Edge right back at it here on the early line fun on a Thursday.
00:04And by the way, Joe, today is a Thursday.
00:06Did you know next Thursday is the NFL draft round number one?
00:10Then it takes place on Friday, and then you get some action on Saturday, and away we go.
00:14But the question we don't really want to ask is, well, who's going to be the number one pick?
00:18You know it's going to be Francisco Mendoza going from the Indiana Hoosiers to the Vegas Raiders.
00:23But the question comes up, Joe, and it's a heated debate.
00:26Who is going number two overall? Avril Reese, superstar pass rushing linebacker from Ohio State.
00:3354% is a chance. David Bailey, Texas Tech, outstanding pass rusher.
00:3949% is a chance, Joe. Interwine, intertwining, I should say, right up till draft night.
00:45What are we thinking? Reese, Bailey, or Moore?
00:48Well, Reese is the logical answer, Donnie.
00:52But, you know, Bailey is still very young.
00:54I think he's one of the youngest guys in the draft.
00:56I think he just turned 20.
00:59And, listen, if it's the one thing that the Jets and other teams are going to need is pass rushers,
01:05right?
01:06So, you know, this is a kid that you can kind of take in.
01:09You can mold.
01:10You can't teach athletic ability, Donnie.
01:12And this kid is an absolute monster here.
01:15But he's raw in a lot of spots.
01:17But defensive-minded head coach there.
01:19And I tend to think that I would not be shocked if he is the one coming out of Texas
01:24Tech to land with the second overall pick here.
01:28Pass rushers need him, Joe.
01:30Superstar corners.
01:31Superstar quarterbacks.
01:32Superstar pass rushers go hand-in-hand with winning formulas here.
01:35And certainly, it looks like we're going to have one of those number two overall draft picks be a pass
01:39rusher.
01:40But we'll find out on next Thursday night.
01:42And also next Thursday night.
01:43It is round number one.
01:44And everybody's going to get to have a pick if it is available.
01:47So, the question here, Joe, pro football players drafted in the first round.
01:51Now, granted, if you want to go out and say to yourself, well, I'm going to take a flyer out
01:54that Mendoza goes in the first round, congratulations to you.
01:57But we want to take a look at some of these players that have a lot of intrigue maybe later
02:01in the round.
02:02And the one thing we do know, Joe, quarterbacks always get overdrafted regardless, year after year.
02:08Ty Simpson, quarterback of the Alabama Crimson Tide, he's currently trading at a 56% chance to go in round
02:16number one.
02:17So, a $100 investment would pay back $176.
02:19I do think Ty Simpson goes in the first round because when you get late, Joe, 32, 31, 30,
02:26that means you get that extra year that you can keep them as opposed to drafting them in the second
02:30or third round.
02:31Ty Simpson to go in round number one.
02:33I don't have any inside information.
02:34I just know quarterbacks get overdrafted, and I think he goes in the first round.
02:38Yeah, and listen, Donnie, you got – it's a good point here because it's the one position everyone needs help
02:45in.
02:45And when you get to the bottom of the board in the first round, what's the best available player on
02:51the board?
02:52And if they need a quarterback, yeah, you can count on it.
02:55I had him projected as a second rounder, but it wouldn't shock me if he goes.
03:00Because he's really the only quarterback in this draft that has a chance of going either in the first or
03:07the second round, I believe.
03:09How about the team to draft Arvel Reese?
03:11And again, you're talking about a guy that's expected to go East least number two or number three.
03:15So, it brings into the fact that, yeah, Vegas is probably not going to draft him because they're taking Mendoza.
03:19But if you look at Arizona, 52%.
03:21The New York Jets, 52%.
03:23Why?
03:24The Jets, number two.
03:26Arizona, number three.
03:27Which team's going to grab Reese?
03:28That's going to be determined next Thursday night, Joe.
03:31But an even keel, Arizona and New York Jets right now because we don't know who's going number two just
03:36yet.
03:37Yeah.
03:37Listen, we don't even know if the Jets or Arizona are going to stay in the positions there.
03:42They may trade and get down and get more draft capital and all of that good stuff.
03:46But I do think if the Jets don't get Reese, then it means that they went with Bailey out of
03:52Texas Tech,
03:53which means whoever's left to Arizona between those two is likely going to be off the board here by the
03:59time we get to the fourth pick.
04:01Carson Beck played some good football for the Miami Hurricanes last year.
04:04He also is a quarterback, and as you said, quarterbacks like to get overdrafted.
04:08Do we think he's going in round number one?
04:09No, we don't.
04:10But how about this?
04:11The favorites to draft Carson Beck right now, the Pittsburgh Steelers, Joe, at 40%.
04:15And Green Bay, who you know, loves to draft a good quarterback here and have him wait in the wings
04:20for a couple years
04:21before they can be a superstar player.
04:23Green Bay at 38%.
04:25Then it falls off to the Cleveland Browns around 25%.
04:28So Pittsburgh and Green Bay, the leaders right now for Carson Beck.
04:33Yeah, interesting here, right?
04:35I think that's going to be very interesting is to see.
04:38We know there are some teams, Donnie, that absolutely need some help as best they can.
04:44And listen, it's not like it's not a guy that can't come in that doesn't hasn't played a ton of
04:48football.
04:49They've got all the tape on them.
04:51They know exactly what they can getting.
04:53And listen, we've seen this in years past.
04:55You know, Chris Winkie and others, guys that have been, it feels like, they played 10 years in college.
05:01They're going to land on a team, Donnie.
05:03And it wouldn't shock me if it is Pittsburgh, who better figure something out at that position sooner rather than
05:08later.
05:10Jeremiah Love, he's going in the top 10.
05:12The question is who's going to pick him.
05:13And maybe a couple years ago, that wouldn't be the case.
05:15But the resurgence of the running back is a big deal.
05:18Tennessee, which currently sits here, Joe, with the fourth overall pick, they're the favorites to draft Love at a 46
05:24% chance,
05:25followed by Washington, who comes in at the seventh pick, the New York Jets at the number two pick,
05:30and then a little bit farther down, the New York Giants at the fifth overall pick.
05:34The team to draft Jeremiah Love, Joe, who do we think that's going to be?
05:38It's tough, Donnie.
05:40I mean, listen, I mean, he is, was a great, fantastic, you know, running back, Notre Dame, college career.
05:46But I'm not, you know, is he a B. John Robinson, right?
05:50Is he, is he that kind of talent that he's good?
05:54I still don't think he goes in the top 10.
05:57Call me crazy.
05:58I think this is going to be all about defense and linemen here.
06:01But if he does, Donnie, call me nuts.
06:05Wouldn't shock me if, if the Rams maybe get involved in this spot here or, yeah, or believe it or
06:12not,
06:12the Jets who have more than enough picks here, apparently, to be able to consider getting a running back as
06:18well.
06:19Like you want those superstar running backs, like Love could be that guy, but he's really like the cherry on
06:24top, Joe.
06:24Like, hey, we have a team that we think can make a deep run.
06:26Yeah, we'll draft top 10 and be able to get this guy.
06:28Maybe it's like a Kansas City at nine, even though, oh, Donnie, they don't.
06:31They signed Kenneth Walker, the third.
06:33But trust me, Andy Reid's sitting there with Jeremiah Love at the ninth to go,
06:36what do I can do with two running backs with Patrick Mahomes coming back?
Comments