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00:00The draft is tonight. The commissioner will be in town. They will boo him in Pittsburgh.
00:04We will all watch to see who's going to be the number one overall pick.
00:07And you know what's going to be interesting? When that name gets called, Mr. Mendoza,
00:12come on down. And they pop on the television. And he goes, hey, what's up, guys? I'm live from
00:18Miami. Sorry I couldn't be in Pittsburgh because nobody wants to be in Pittsburgh. And he can't
00:22dap up the commissioner at this point, Joe. That's what we're going to get tonight. But before we get
00:27there, how about this? College football. You know me, Joe. And there's thoughts around the
00:32camps that the Congress is going to step in now and say, you must have 24 teams in a playoff.
00:37I know you hate it. And I absolutely love it. But there now is no reason here for championship
00:42games to be played because it used to be a cash grab. Now we're finding out they're meaningless
00:47games at times and also can hurt your team from getting another team into the playoff where
00:51we've seen teams that didn't play in the SEC championship already booked their ticket to
00:55the playoff. But the team playing in the SEC championship, if they lose, might not make
01:00the playoff here. But how about this? NBC says, yo, got no choice to sell the Big Ten
01:04championship game to anyone except Fox. How about that story?
01:08Yeah, anybody but Fox, right? Is that it, Donnie? I mean, you got to be kidding me here.
01:13It's just it's cash grab everywhere. It's unbelievable to me. But you know what? This all started
01:21when you gave the NCAA the rights, the media rights to sell, just like they were an NBA team
01:28or an NFL team or a major league baseball. The minute you did that, you created a billion dollar
01:35business overnight on the backs of a bunch of 18 to 21 year olds. And this is exactly what you
01:40get,
01:41Donnie. It is money rules the world. And I love this next story so much because the last laugh you're
01:47going to think is with the Chicago Bears. It's actually not. It's with the state of Indiana.
01:52So we take a look at politics, Joe, right? It's like Indiana is a liberal state or excuse me,
01:56is a conservative state. And Illinois is a liberal state there. So we always thought this was
02:01interesting. Like Indiana is like, we already have one football team. Come on, Chicago. We'll lay out
02:04the red carpet. We will drive that price higher for the state of Illinois. But if you want,
02:08we got a state waiting with a lot of money to give you to put the Chicago Bears in Indiana.
02:13So now we're seeing here a report from Evan Sidery. The Illinois House Revenue Committee just voted in
02:21favor of the Bears new stadium in Arlington Heights. It says now if the state house also approves the
02:25final step, the Bears are officially staying in Illinois long term, which if you are Indiana,
02:31you got to be laughing because how much more did it cost the state of Illinois to keep the Chicago
02:36Bears? Because Indiana is like, we'll give you whatever we want, even though you know the Bears
02:40never wanted to go to Indiana. And all it did was force Illinois to pay that much more for the
02:46Chicago Bears. Kind of funny how it worked out. Oh, that's not. It's vintage. It's absolutely
02:52vintage. Right out of the playbook, Donnie, right? Say something that you know absolutely won't come
02:59to fruition, but will open up 23 other doors for you to walk right through. It is exactly what they
03:06did
03:06in this spot here. You don't think somebody was making money with all of this? You don't please
03:11unreal. It's always like the free agent show. Let's just say major league baseball, you know,
03:16you're never going to get, and you think he's going to arrival and you just pick up that phone
03:19that age, you go, all right, it was 150 million, make it 200. And they go, Oh, we'll go back
03:25to the
03:25other team. Like you can't, they just raised this 50 and we have to pay it here. And you just
03:29laugh
03:29like we knew we weren't going to get them. We're going to make sure that other guy pays way more
03:33than he was supposed to pay just to show that dagger here. And that's exactly what they did.
03:37How about this next? Look, God love the Dallas Cowboys. Jerry Jones outside of actually building
03:43a football team is a genius at making money. No doubt about the Dallas Cowboys, maybe the biggest,
03:49you know, overall brand in the world. Congratulations to him and all the yachts he can afford. But as a
03:54general manager and building a roster, you do have some cap restraints that you have to get to.
03:58And also understanding the cap restraints, Joe, on the players that you want to restrain.
04:03We know George Pickens has a screw loose. So how about this story from Yahoo sports Cowboys
04:08executive vice president, Steven Jones told reporters Wednesday that the team, not George
04:13Pickens, the team has decided he's going to play under that franchise tag. The season won't be any
04:18long-term deal talks. This is going to be set up for some awesomeness in that Cowboys locker room.
04:24Now, especially Donnie, if they're not, if they are not winning, I can, him knowing that, well,
04:33let's, let's also not cry, you know, cry me a river here. Will you please George, but he's going to
04:38be
04:38making 27.3 million and fully guaranteed on a one-year deal. So, you know, but the one thing we
04:44know
04:45about Pickens and the one thing we know about ornery wide receivers, especially dealing in
04:50Dallas, yeah, if, if they ain't winning, it gets kind of ugly in a hurry there. And that's exactly
04:59the kind of drama Jerry wanted to always wanted to avoid, but somehow could never do it over the years.
05:06It's unreal. And he can't figure out or understand this. Like when you make the trade for George
05:11Pickens, give him the contract. It would be an absolute bargain today compared to what they're
05:16paying him. And also under the notion, Joe, with the franchise tag, why does no team want the
05:21franchise tag? Number one, the player gets pissed off because he wants his full-time guaranteed money
05:24over the length of the contract. But number two, Joe, you can't manipulate the salary cap with a
05:29franchise tag. As you said, let's call it 28 million. Usually when you sign a guy to a $150 million
05:35contract, I said, wait a second, his tag this year, Joe, $6 million against the cap. No, Pickens,
05:4028 million, all against the cap in one season. You can't spread it out. Congratulations, Jerry Jones
05:46here. How about another great story? Don't they have a number one receiver? I mean, did I miss
05:52something? Yeah, I was going to say, is C.D. Lamb still in the league? Is he still not a
05:59Dallas Cowboy?
06:00Like, why are you tying this up with a number two receiver? Is beyond me, Donnie. Beyond me.
06:07It's Jerry Jones and what makes the world go around. It really does. Pittsburgh tonight,
06:11we'll have the NFL draft. Here's another one. Surprise, surprise. Andrew Filippone tweets.
06:16How about this one? One source told Mike Florio, pro football talk, that Aaron Rodgers is
06:21quote, irritated by what the Steelers and Art Rooney II said about his potential return
06:27and reporting date at the NFL owners meetings. And this could explain the delay in him signing.
06:32Got news for you, Pittsburgh. Cut the bait now. And I got news for you, though, Pittsburgh.
06:40If you think he is anywhere near social media or is any idea right now in between, you know,
06:49hits a peyote there out in the middle of the desert somewhere, you're out of your mind.
06:54This guy goes into hibernation and does his own thing. He could care less.
06:59He'll be there when he decides whether he's playing or not. And they should know that, Pittsburgh.
07:05And the best part about it means nothing. They're not going to have a deep playoff run.
07:08It's Aaron Rodgers holding you hostage and away you go at this point here.
07:12And by the way, taking a look at this, Fields on joining Kansas City and following Patrick Mahomes.
07:18He thinks he's a starter, does he?
07:20Yeah. I mean, of course, you know, Coach Reed, he's been in the NFL a long time, has had a
07:25lot of success.
07:26And, you know, very smart. And so that was, of course, a deciding factor for me and an exciting factor
07:33for me when I came here.
07:34And then, of course, Pat, you know, I kind of, we, of course, knew of each other, but we didn't
07:40really communicate before coming here.
07:42So I'm excited to learn from him. I'm already kind of, you know, picking his brain a little bit and
07:47just observing how he, you know,
07:49goes about things in the meeting room, on the field and stuff like that.
07:53So I'm excited to learn and excited, of course, work with Coach Reed, EB and, you know, all the guys
07:58on offense.
08:00Saying the right things went to the right spot. No pressure to be the starter, be a backup and learn.
08:04But, Joe, also, if you don't think Andy Reed's bringing him in and going, hmm, if we can use you
08:08as a tight end slash H-back slash fourth and one type option here, he would be crazy.
08:13This could be the perfect scenario. Hey, look, if you're a quarterback, don't let your pride get in the way.
08:18Be that H-back slot. Increase your money and increase your years in the league, Joe, by fivefold if you
08:24could do that.
08:25Don't be a quarterback because if you are Fields, you'll be out of the league in two years.
08:28Be that H-back that they need who can play quarterback in a pinch, you'll make some good money there.
08:35Imagine being that terrible at your job and still figuring out ways to catch a paycheck from a team.
08:45Beyond me, Donnie, beyond me how you can be.
08:48Let your kids, come on, let the kids, start throwing the football early.
08:52Doesn't matter if you can play quarterback or not.
08:54Just look like you can play quarterback and a team will give you a contract to be a backup.
09:00Unreal.
09:01Can you imagine this guy just as like a backup or a slot tight end at this point who can
09:05play quarterback?
09:06And Andy Reed's going to cook up some of those crazy formations and get you involved and extend your career
09:11by five to seven years?
09:13Couldn't be me, Joe.
09:14I want to be quarterback.
09:15Maybe in the UFL apparently at this point.
09:18We got some hot topics coming up.
09:19George Kurtz is going to join us next draft night tonight right here on the grid.
09:24The early line right here on the Sports Grid Network.
09:27Rise and grind with us on a Thursday.
09:29Big night, as we said, in the NBA, in the NHL, Major League Baseball playing, a lot of afternoon games.
09:33But the draft is tonight.
09:35It's Donnie Wright said it's Joe Renier.
09:36We welcome in George Kurtz.
09:38George, thanks for rising and grinding with us this morning.
09:40Having some fun little draft talk here for the NFL.
09:43How about that?
09:44Yeah.
09:49It's been going here and in the NHL playoffs for me as well here.
09:52Looking forward to the draft tonight.
09:54Good times tonight had by all.
09:56This will be in Pittsburgh tonight.
09:58The number one overall draft pick going to be taken by the Las Vegas Raiders.
10:02But apparently, George, we're not showing up in Pittsburgh as the number one pick.
10:06Mendoza on the clock right now.
10:08So we'll start there.
10:09Pittsburgh has a draft.
10:11Mendoza's not there.
10:12What do we make about this draft pick for the Raiders and what it means for the future?
10:14Because Kirk Cousins is telling us, man, I think I can still start as well.
10:20I think Cousins is like they will start, right?
10:22They can bring him along slowly here.
10:23The Raiders aren't going anywhere this year.
10:25They need to get this right.
10:27I think Mendoza is the right pick.
10:28Fine.
10:29I don't think he's the next Andrew Luck when he was the number one over.
10:33I don't think he's quite of that ilk here.
10:34But I think he is the top quarterback in the draft.
10:36I don't think he's the top player in the draft.
10:38You know, I think if he weren't a quarterback crazy league, it might be somebody like Jeremiah Love who goes
10:42first overall or someone like that.
10:44You need a quarterback to compete in the NFL.
10:46That's where they're going here.
10:47But they need to get it right.
10:49Don't rush the kid.
10:49You're not going anywhere this year anyway.
10:52Yeah.
10:53George, we do want to make sure.
10:55CeeDee Lamb is still on the Cowboys, right?
10:57He's still playing there like he's still in the league.
10:59So what are the chances Jerry drafts a wide receiver now that he just tied up $27 million with a
11:07number two receiver in Pickens here?
11:10What are your Cowboys plans here, you think, in this draft?
11:14This is going to be a disaster, right?
11:17Is Pickens really the guy you want to take off now?
11:21And why would you just tell him, hey, you know, you're not getting a long-term deal with us.
11:25You're not.
11:26Go eat it.
11:26I don't know why you're not going to see Pickens somewhere in August, by the way,
11:30because he has no reason to show up there and sign that franchise tender there.
11:34So a strange situation there with the Cowboys.
11:37Listen, if they stay at 12, which is a big if here.
11:39I think they would like to move up to guarantee themselves one of those top defenders there, Sonny Stiles type.
11:45But if they stay at 12, could they take Tyson?
11:48I think Tyson's gone by 12.
11:49I don't think he's there.
11:50I think Tate's gone by 12.
11:51So I don't think they're taking a wide receiver because there won't be anybody there.
11:54But let's just say for giggles that every defensive player goes, right?
11:58The lane goes.
11:59Bane goes.
12:00Downs is gone.
12:01All those guys are gone.
12:02And even Tate or Tyson are there.
12:04Well, then they go on BPA, right?
12:05Which I kind of – that's what I subscribe to.
12:07BPA, you got to get the best player available.
12:09And Tyson or Tate are there at 12.
12:11Are you going to reach for someone like Falk who's really more of a late teens guy?
12:15You know, Akeem Isidor, same thing, a little more of a teens guy.
12:18So, yeah, I'd be okay with them taking a wide receiver at 12 in that situation, assuming everybody else is
12:24gone.
12:24It's Jerry.
12:25Let's face it.
12:26He's going to do something wacky tonight.
12:27It's what he does.
12:29So we'll see what happens here.
12:30But I think the only way they take a wide receiver is if everything else goes wrong and somehow one
12:35of those two falls.
12:37Yeah, it'll be interesting to watch.
12:38And Jerry's sometimes very good with those BPAs where it's like, hey, I know we got wide outs.
12:41You pick up, you know, CeeDee Lamb at that point.
12:43You got value.
12:43The Michael Parsons draft pick.
12:45He has made some good picks, but roster construction, sometimes not his best effort here where he seems to like
12:50to say, let's hold your contract out and then we'll reset the market on your price, which even now includes
12:55kickers at this point.
12:56But the draft is going to take place tonight, George.
12:58Round number one, usually quarterbacks get overdrafted.
13:02We know Mendoza's going to go number one overall.
13:04Let me ask you this question because now we see all the smoke and the signals.
13:08Oh, Carson Beck might make it into round number one.
13:10Ty Simpson is always there.
13:11If I gave you the choice, like quarterbacks going in round number one, how many quarterbacks do you think you
13:17will go there?
13:19Two.
13:19All right.
13:20That's the number, right?
13:21One and a half is the number here to go over under here.
13:23We know Mendoza's going one.
13:25I think the, and listen, I don't think Ty Simpson's the top 32 player.
13:30I don't.
13:30But what we remember in the NFL is if you take someone in the first round, you get the fifth
13:34year option.
13:35The quarterback is important.
13:37And what do we know, boys?
13:39Seattle at 32.
13:40They've already said it.
13:41Put it in nice, bright letters here.
13:42We want to trade out.
13:44I think that's the spot.
13:45There's going to be a team from the second round to trade into the first round to take Simpson.
13:49You know, maybe it's the Jetson or the Cardinals.
13:52They're there at 33 and 34.
13:54So I think that's what's going to happen.
13:57If someone's trading into 32 to get that spot here, they'll give up whatever it takes.
14:01They get a fifth, sixth-round pick to get that first-round pick.
14:04Get him in the fifth year option.
14:05So I think, yes, two quarterbacks will be taking the first round.
14:07I think it's going to be bookends.
14:09And Dozer at one end, Simpson at the other.
14:12Yeah.
14:12Don't even do it.
14:13I'm still worried at the number two pick, the Jets are going to screw this.
14:16Can you think of any two franchises, George, who have had a bigger history of misses in the draft than
14:22the Raiders and the Jets coming in at number one and number two?
14:26But I'm curious here, because we've seen running backs over the last couple of years, the value now as far
14:34as a first-round pick.
14:35I don't know.
14:36I'm not sold on love.
14:38Are you?
14:39You still think he's going to be, what, top five markets I've seen with him?
14:43Like, where does he go, you think?
14:46I think his floor is probably the Cardinals at three, although I think that's a smokescreen.
14:50I think they're just trying to say, yeah, well, we're interested in love because I think they want someone to
14:53trade up.
14:54All right?
14:54I think they want someone to trade up there and take him.
14:57So I don't think the Cardinals are taking him at three.
14:59I think it's likely the Titans at four.
15:02If not, I think the first he falls with the Commanders at seven.
15:04I think the Commanders would definitely grab him at seven if he's there.
15:07All right?
15:08So I think it's between three and seven is where he goes here.
15:11I think he's a great player.
15:12All right?
15:12So I think he will help a team, but you already sort of said it there.
15:15We devalued the running backs now for, what, 15, 20 years.
15:19They're sort of picking up again.
15:20But I think the fact that Gentry was taken at six last year didn't really pay off.
15:24Not his fault.
15:25The Raiders offensive line was putrid.
15:27Quarterback was terrible.
15:28But I think the fact that he went six last year, it didn't work out, does hurt love a little
15:31bit here.
15:32So I think between three and seven is where love goes here.
15:35I got him at Titans at four.
15:37I think they need to do something to help out Cam Ward here.
15:40And I think they're going to think it's a little too early to take a wide receiver there.
15:43So I'll take the running back instead.
15:45Thursday morning on the grid.
15:46Your place to be.
15:47It's the early line getting ready for the NFL draft and a lot of action across the sports landscape here.
15:53It's Donnie Wright's at it.
15:54Joe Ranieri.
15:54Now we bring in Kevin Walsh on an early morning Thursday here with so much going down here.
16:01GTD is going to be on fire tonight.
16:03Yeah, we are.
16:05It is loaded.
16:07We'll get into whatever we want to get into.
16:09We'll let people know.
16:10Tonight, we're just going to do the NFL draft on game time decisions.
16:14We just figured there's only one draft night, right?
16:17For real, for real.
16:19So we figured we'd just kind of step up draft style and make it happen here.
16:23I'm pretty excited.
16:25Hype around the draft.
16:26We'll have some fun.
16:27Mendoza, the number one overall pick, is going to go to Vegas.
16:29The only question I have, Ken, let me ask you this question first, too.
16:32Should Vegas technically not be on the clock in the minute the draft start, their pick should be in?
16:36Or do you want to see them take their time and then they have to show the video of the
16:40room where they congratulate themselves for the pick they made like six months ago?
16:46It's actually...
16:48It is going to be interesting how long it takes.
16:52Someone did tell me that the draft times are shorter this year.
16:56So the first round may actually move a bit quicker.
16:59But to your point, basically the Jets have the first overall pick, if you think about it, right?
17:05And we have absolutely no clue what the New York Jets are going to be doing at second overall.
17:11So, like, the mock drafts, you know, we joke.
17:15But, man, there are a lot of questions right now starting at two.
17:20And it's a domino effect.
17:21It really, really is.
17:26I'm looking here now, Kev, because it seems to have come down to two guys for the Jets, provided they
17:32don't trade out of it.
17:33But I don't know that there's, you know, they can accumulate more assets, but they need an edge rusher.
17:40And that's what this draft has right now.
17:42So it's either going to be Reese or Bailey.
17:44And then it feels like whoever they pick, the other guy is going to Arizona because they're kind of in
17:50the same boat at that point, right?
17:52So it feels like the other guy will go third, just not to Arizona.
17:59That is kind of the read around the room right now.
18:03The Cardinals just want to trade back because the Cardinals.
18:07So, at this point, I do believe that if Arizona doesn't trade out, they are going to take Jeremiah Love,
18:16which is a crazy decision.
18:19As big of a Jeremiah Love fan as you will find, to re-sign James Conner, freshly sign Tyler Algier,
18:28be where you are as an organization, grabbing Love third, feels ridiculous.
18:33Which is why I think Arizona will be happy to trade back at less than a, like, Donnie, I know
18:42you always say, you want to come up, that's going to cost you, you know, three number ones.
18:46Donnie, they might be happy with a second round pick, and they'll move back to eight or nine.
18:51Because, really, this Arizona, you know, number one priority today might be drafting Ty Simpson at some point here in
19:01the first round.
19:02Now, Kevin, I know you take the draft seriously.
19:04Like, myself, I hope I'm even up for the Eagles pick.
19:07I don't do any wagering or handicapping.
19:09I put no effort into the draft myself.
19:10I can spoil it for you.
19:12Yeah.
19:12People like yourself do that.
19:14Do you have any options tonight that you're looking for?
19:16Because I saw the tweet that you put out, like, you're close to finalizing that board for draft night.
19:19Have we made any decisions for tonight?
19:22Yeah.
19:22So, a few.
19:25We know that the draft odds move a ton.
19:28And that's just kind of the nature of it.
19:31The thing is, and I will just kind of stress this to people, right?
19:34If I were to give people a money line parlay of the three biggest favorites, you'd be like, ooh, first
19:42day on the job.
19:43Like, that's crazy.
19:44Things are going to go wrong.
19:45The draft is very, very different, right?
19:47In the draft, you're willing to lay juice, and you're looking for certainty, and you can kind of bring those
19:53things together.
19:54So, I think those round one parlays are very, very interesting.
19:59I am right now trying to figure out, like, a Denzel, Boston, Ty, Simpson combination, because the Simpson noise is
20:07really, really loud at this point.
20:11The straight wager that I placed is kind of straight up and down.
20:16Was it Keem Mesidor under 25.5 draft position?
20:20Mesidor's mocked to the Tampa Bay Bucs at 15 in most drafts.
20:25Now, apparently, Tampa wants to trade down.
20:28Well, it's fine with me.
20:29They're not going to trade out of the top 25, and still someone else could grab Mesidor.
20:34So, I don't know how much that juice has moved on every single book, but I think Mesidor ends up
20:40actually a top 20 pick.
20:43So, how many wide receivers are we thinking go in the first round here?
20:48Is there going to be a run?
20:49I saw the number at five and a half.
20:52It doesn't feel like we have that one game.
20:56You know, there's no Jamar Chase or Jefferson in this trade.
20:59You got nice receivers, but they're number twos, really.
21:03How many go in the first round, do you think?
21:05So, there's pretty much no world where Tate, Lemon, and Tyson are not first-round picks.
21:13You're then looking at Omar Cooper, Denzel Boston, and Casey Concepcion.
21:20Anyone other than that other trio would be pretty surprising.
21:25Chris Bell, Malachi Fields.
21:27But that does mean the over five and a half, which is juiced now, right, Joe?
21:31It's just an exact six,
21:33which is why I don't love that over five and a half,
21:37because could a team, you know, picking between Casey Concepcion
21:41and an offensive lineman say, you know what, just give me the big body,
21:44and we'll figure out another receiver?
21:46Omar Cooper, I mean, you guys covered Indiana football as much as anyone,
21:51you know, any team last year in college football.
21:52Does anyone remember Omar Cooper Jr. being discussed like a round one wide receiver?
21:57Or was he discussed like the third best wide receiver on Indiana?
22:00So I've been a little hesitant.
22:04The wide receiver stuff's gone crazy, though.
22:06Jordan Tyson went from a liability with a bad hamstring
22:10to maybe going fifth overall because he did one private workout with 15 routes.
22:16So the wide receiver stuff, I'm glad you brought it up, Joe,
22:19has been really all over the map right now.
22:31Draft essentials tonight, Joe.
22:33The question is not who's going number one.
22:35We know who's going number two.
22:37Who is your choice to go number two in the NFL's draft tonight?
22:40Bailey, Reese, or a surprise?
22:43Somebody else?
22:44Malinoa there from Miami?
22:45Who's it going to be, Joe?
22:47Well, I absolutely think it's going to be Reese, though.
22:52And Reese has moved in the market the most, Donnie, over the last 48 hours here.
22:59But Bailey is right.
23:00But listen, can't go wrong with Bailey either.
23:02Started his career at Stanford, landed at Texas Tech, and he's young.
23:07He's only 20 years old, I believe.
23:09So, you know, keep in mind who the head coach of the New York Jets is.
23:13He's a defensive guy, Aaron Glenn.
23:15And it's going to be somebody who can get after the quarterback.
23:18And it's the first time, Donnie, I can actually say they can't screw this up going with either guy.
23:24The only thing that could happen is they don't go with either guy.
23:28And they go with Simpson or some sort of craziness from there.
23:31So, let's just hope they get one or the other here.
23:34Yep.
23:35All it takes is one team to have somebody they like on the draft board to throw it into chaos.
23:39And never forget those Al Davis Raider drafts where the scouts would actually tell Al Davis
23:44that a wide receiver ran a worse 40 because they know he shouldn't take him.
23:48But if they tell him he ran fast, Al Davis would take him at that point.
23:53Draft night tonight, Joe.
23:54City of Pittsburgh, center stage.
23:56Vrabel's going to check in a little bit for this draft, then check out to go to counseling at this
24:00point.
24:00You're not going to be able to drive any boats down the Monongahela tonight on Three Rivers.
24:05That means, yes, it's Three Rivers over there.
24:07They got it all locked down, but we got the information that you need to know.
24:10So, Joe, I'm going to start this off.
24:12Any shoebox bets on the number one overall pick?
24:14If you say, you know what, it's going to be Mendoza tonight.
24:17Do you think that's a good bet or investment for the people to make out there?
24:21Something tells me he already has Raider gear at his place here in Miami,
24:26which is where he'll be watching.
24:29And the cameras will be rolling because he will be not at the draft.
24:35Only 16 guys, by the way, will be present for the first round here.
24:40So, we'll see how that goes in Pittsburgh for the draft tonight.
24:44Yeah, Calci and the predictive markets aren't going to let you take any sort of investment on, yes,
24:49the number one overall pick being Mendoza.
24:50But the no-bet, Joe, on Mendoza not going number one?
24:53A hundred-dollar investment pays back $10,000 if you want to be that risky in just a few hours
24:59coming up tonight.
25:00But the more questions will be, Joe, who's going overall at number two?
25:04That seems like that's where the draft is going to be won.
25:07But tonight, we got information going both ways, Joe.
25:11Is it Bailey?
25:12Is it Reese?
25:12And currently right now, if you're believing the smoke, it's not David Bailey from Texas Tech, Joe.
25:18A hundred-dollar investment pays back $182 if he goes number two.
25:24Well, and that's a big if, Donnie, because the reality is, you know,
25:30the Jets are going to go either Bailey or Reese.
25:33That seems to be the market, right?
25:36I don't think there's a whole lot of questions about it because they're two of the best rushers in this
25:41draft.
25:42And outside of quarterback, Donnie, that's the most – that's the biggest need for a lot of these teams,
25:47especially the Jets.
25:49But the question becomes with Arizona, is Arizona picking at three?
25:54Because the trading out is a huge – I mean, a huge option here because you're not betting on what
26:01Arizona needs here at number three.
26:04Obviously, you're really betting on who calls them.
26:06And there's only a handful of teams, Donnie, or a handful of guys that would be worth moving up and
26:12trading anyway.
26:14So – and it's likely going to be either Reese or it's going to be Bailey, whoever the Jets don't
26:20pick.
26:20So, I wouldn't focus on Arizona at three.
26:24I would just focus on who is that team calling Arizona and who is the player left that they're going
26:30to go up and get.
26:31Market manipulation, Joe, always happens at the same – like, sometimes you hear like a month earlier.
26:36But now that we're getting up within hours of the draft, boy, you need to read those tea leaves.
26:40Because, by the way, April 20th, did you know Arvel Reese?
26:43He was currently trading on Calci, Joe, at 74.1% to be that number two overall pick.
26:48Now currently trading at 47% at this point.
26:51So, listen up today.
26:52Maybe you can find yourself some deals out there.
26:55The number three overall pick, which means, could it be Arvel Reese dropping down?
26:59He's listed at 36%.
27:00Or could it be somebody absolutely falling in love with Notre Dame running back Jeremiah Love,
27:05currently trading at 29% today, Joe, for that third overall pick?
27:10And, again, don't get caught up with Arizona here because, A, they need a lot of help here.
27:17But they are not, as far as I'm concerned, locked into this at all at number three here.
27:23But at the same time – and don't forget, by the way, they're one of the most trade-active teams
27:29that we're hearing.
27:30They're making phone calls left and right with a new head coach and organizational there.
27:34So, I think Arizona wants more picks, not less picks.
27:39And I think that if you can find anything that, you know, any sort of defensive player, that kind of
27:46angle,
27:47and that kind of market at number three, that's where I'd go because that's what this draft is all about.
27:53And whoever trades with Arizona, if they do, is going to take that best defensive player on the board.
28:00Jeremiah Love certainly surging up the board here, 29% now is a chance to be the third overall pick.
28:05But come on now, Arizona, we need way more things than a running back at this point here as we
28:09take a look.
28:10That fourth overall pick, which is currently for the Titans, this is an interesting one here
28:15because now the leader in the clubhouse, it is actually Jeremiah Love.
28:18But over the past, let's just call it month, Joe, looks like they were going to be locked into Love.
28:23Maybe not so much anymore.
28:24And could it be Sonny Stiles, another talented linebacker from Ohio State, now a 35% chance here,
28:32making a lot of headway as of late for that four pick.
28:36Yeah, and again, I think Tennessee is kind of sitting in a sweet spot here
28:40because if Arizona does trade out, well, then where do they trade?
28:46They're not moving into the four spot, which means they got to come back down,
28:49which means, yeah, there's some options here.
28:52But this is a team that is either going to go offense to build around their young quarterback
28:58or they're going to go with the best edge rusher that is left on the board in case something crazy
29:04happens.
29:05And it's always possible when you're talking about the Jets in Arizona.
29:09But they could benefit big time if there's chaos at number two or three.
29:15But I think they're going to go defense.
29:17I still think they're going to go defense because the draft is stacked with edge rushers that all of these
29:23teams need.
29:25Exactly.
29:25Picking a running back for a team that's not quite ready to win yet doesn't make a whole lot of
29:30sense,
29:30which then brings us up to the New York Giants, who years ago they drafted Saquon Barkley on a bad
29:36football team.
29:37He was a good player and injured, but still on a bad football team.
29:40Do the Giants right now looking to be on the Ascension go?
29:43Now's the time to take another running back.
29:45If they do, Jeremiah Love's only listed at 18%, but also the guys ahead of him, Tyson, Styles, and Downs,
29:53who's really talented in the secondary, they're hovering anywhere between, Joe, 22% to 20% to be that fifth
30:00overall pick.
30:02Yeah, and listen, the Giants are the most flexible of any of these top five teams, Donnie,
30:09because they do have a pick now at number 10 as well.
30:12And really, Donnie, they're sitting there at five, and basically it's completely dependent on what happens with number three and
30:19number four,
30:19because they're going to react to what is already off the board.
30:23They're not dictating anything there, even though they have more flexibility.
30:27Wouldn't shock me if they maybe trade down or just simply go with whoever the best wide receiver on their
30:33board is at that point.
30:35Talking about wide receivers, number six overall, the Cleveland Browns in the market for some more offense here.
30:41Seems like they got their defense figured out.
30:43One of the favorites here, Carnell Tate listed at a 20% chance to be the sixth overall pick,
30:48but also Spencer Fano now, the leader right now at 22%, but the contract here at 20% is Carnell
30:56Tate.
30:56Do we think we might be going wide receiver in Cleveland at six overall?
31:01Yeah, or could it go quarterback?
31:04Because let's face it, they still don't have one.
31:08They do not.
31:09But I don't think quarterback is going to be there.
31:12There are yes-no markets with the quarterback drafted in this spot here,
31:17but ultimately, I'm with you, Donnie.
31:19I think it's either going to be the best wide receiver or the remaining best defensive lineman.
31:24Shadour Sanders said there's a different vibe in town there with new head coach,
31:28Mr. Munkin pulling the strings and offensive coordinators usually like to get an offensive weapon here
31:34to start out their new, let's just say, residency in Cleveland.
31:37We'll find out shortly, but we'll be right back on PME after this short break.
31:41A lot of marketplaces think that you want to maybe invest your wagers.
31:45Prediction, market's edge.
31:46Take a look at this one, Joe.
31:48Players drafted in the top three in 2026.
31:51Now, we've been talking about the three same guys for months now, it feels like.
31:54Fernando Mendoza going number one overall.
31:56That's probably going to happen.
31:57David Bailey or Arvel Reese fighting for that number two spot,
32:00but also thinking if anybody else can sneak into that top three,
32:05because Mendoza, Bailey, and Reese have that locked.
32:07And then you see, all right, Jeremiah Lovett, around 35%.
32:10Sonny Stiles, also from Ohio State, he might be able to sneak in at 14%.
32:14My question to you, Joe, is, is it a smart investment to take somebody outside of the three favorites
32:20to maybe jump into this market tonight?
32:23Yeah, well, I'll tell you what.
32:25I mean, this is a better market than trying to figure out what Arizona is going to do at number
32:30three, right?
32:31Because I think we're much more locked in on the players and what kind of draft this is going to
32:38shake out to be,
32:39at least in the top three.
32:41I still go to Jeremiah Lovett not being a top three pick here, Donnie,
32:46and I think you can get the no on him at still under about 70 cents here.
32:51And I think that's the way I'd look because I'm not buying that a running back.
32:55I'm not buying him especially going in the top three.
32:58I don't think anybody's trading up.
32:59I don't think Arizona is going to go get him with the third pick.
33:02So I would look to the no.
33:05I think maybe that is the safest bet right now in this market.
33:09Yeah, Arvel Reese, he's probably going to go top three.
33:11But again, the investment's not going to pay back all that much.
33:14But also, it's just leverage.
33:15If I told you that you can have a $100 investment tonight, Joe,
33:20and by tomorrow morning I'm going to give you $13 back,
33:22hey, buddy, 8 p.m., can you lend me $100 and give you $113 by 7 a.m. tomorrow,
33:26you probably would take that.
33:27Like, Reese is going to be a top three pick on cash.
33:29You could take that $100 and wager, excuse me, $100 investment,
33:32pays back the $113 back.
33:34Top five players drafted, so a little bit more of a chance to sneak in there.
33:39Mendoza, Reese, Bailey, Love, all at 80% or higher.
33:43But then the fun begins.
33:45Sonny Stiles, Jordan Tyson climbing up, Caleb Downs, Carnell, Tate, Joe.
33:49That fifth spot's going to be interesting tonight.
33:51And if you hit it right, that investment could turn profitable for you.
33:56Yeah, the interesting thing, top five,
33:58and again, would I be shocked if Caleb Downs goes to the Giants at five?
34:04No.
34:04They need help in that secondary there.
34:07And he is, you know, he is one of those guys that I think could very well land in the
34:14top five here.
34:15Listen, Tyson, it's a nice story.
34:18But again, I'm not sold that any one of these wide receivers,
34:23there's going to be three, four of them that go in the first round,
34:26but none of them move the needle.
34:28I think Caleb Downs as a guy would not shock me if he lands in the top five.
34:33Or how about this, Joe?
34:34We always talk about those no contracts.
34:36Like, running back is always a controversial position.
34:38If you feel that Jeremiah Love won't be a top five player here in the draft tonight,
34:43how about a no contract at 21 cents?
34:45A $100 investment would pay back $4.77.
34:48Never know.
34:49He's a great talent.
34:50We know it.
34:50Maybe he gets overdrafted and finds himself in the top four.
34:53But if he lands at six or less, that contract can be pretty profitable for you.
34:57Players drafted in the top 10.
34:59Even more chance for some leeway at this point, Joe.
35:03We go down to, by the way, Caleb Downs, I'm going to put this in right now, Cassie.
35:07$100 investment pays back $127 that he will be a top 10 pick.
35:11That guy is a game changer.
35:13Absolutely, Joe.
35:15Should be a top 10 pick there.
35:16What do you think?
35:17I agree.
35:19Absolutely.
35:19Should be a top 10.
35:21A lot of these guys.
35:22I mean, you're not going to get, you know, you're not going to break the bank here with
35:27any of these selections, Donnie.
35:29There are some opportunities, though, I think, that you can, you know, you can take advantage
35:33in some of the no markets.
35:34But right now, as you go down the board here, my goodness.
35:38I mean, you're basically betting on which one of these guys is not.
35:41How many offensive linemen are on this list, Donnie?
35:44To me, we haven't even talked offensive linemen.
35:48But that top 10, you're always going to see the best tackle off the board, are you not?
35:54Yeah, absolutely here.
35:55And also, Joe, sometimes you just want to go head to head.
35:58Remove all the noise.
35:59Give me two players, just like in golf, Joe, right?
36:02Like, hey, I'm going to take Scheffler head to head with Rory McIlroy.
36:05Don't care who wins it, as long as my guy beats the other one.
36:07How about tonight?
36:08Draft matchup.
36:09Arbel Reese versus David Bailey.
36:12David Bailey, currently the favorite once again in this market, at 53% as a chance to
36:17be drafted over Arbel Reese, who's 47% here.
36:21That's a fun market right there.
36:22The latest tea leaves, Joe, are leaning towards David Bailey going to the Jets.
36:28Good.
36:29Absolutely.
36:29Arbel Reese.
36:30Again, I don't think the Jets can go wrong either with either pick.
36:34And I do believe what the market is telling you here, Donnie, is they don't think so either.
36:40The only thing with Bailey is he is younger, not as experienced.
36:44So I'm wondering if that's going to be a deciding factor for the Jets.
36:49And also, Alabama, no stranger to placing players in the NFL.
36:53This draft market is just starting to come into play on Calshy, because why?
36:57Five, six, seven, eight, nine, ten-plus players to be drafted.
37:00Every one is 99 cents to the yes outside of 12-plus players here.
37:05They really don't want you going against Alabama just yet.
37:08But as this market starts to turn up and players get drafted, it's going to change quite a bit, Joe.
37:13It is.
37:14And be weary about this, because outside of the top five, we could get chaos.
37:21Chaos is what we love.
37:22Prediction Markets Edge will be back on a Friday here, right here on The Grid.
37:27See you then.
37:27See you then.
37:27See you then.
37:27See you then.
37:27See you then.
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