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00:00So I'm not getting out until next week now.
00:04Because of your schedule.
00:05Because of my schedule.
00:06But today was playable.
00:06Today was playable, yeah.
00:08Your place is open.
00:09Right.
00:10Chris, a week out, we've talked about this and around this already,
00:14but is this the worst draft ever?
00:202013 was ultimately really bad.
00:23It went like Eric Fisher was the first pick.
00:25Luke Jokel was the second pick.
00:27Ziggy Ansa was the third pick.
00:29If you look back at that first round, obviously, E.J. Manuel involved in that draft.
00:33Tavon Austin was a top ten pick.
00:35Like, it was definitely a class that rivals this one.
00:40I do think, fortunately for the Bills, the second half of the first round
00:46and then all of the scattering of good players that we'll see after round one
00:51will make this actually a pretty solid class overall.
00:54But if we're talking just round one, it's one of the, I don't know,
00:58I don't want to say most depressing, but definitely least high-end talent
01:02first round that I've ever evaluated.
01:05And you're not saying that from a fantasy player's standpoint that might shape how I'm feeling
01:11because of the lack of high-end skill position players, including quarterbacks, in that mix.
01:17You're not talking about it from that standpoint.
01:20I mean, guys you like David Bailey, who has been your favorite player
01:24and right now seems the consensus 102 to the Jets, to my eyes.
01:28I mean, is it, it's not his fault, but you've got just a, what, a relative lack of high-end,
01:33high-ceiling players in the top ten, fifteen picks?
01:37For sure.
01:38I think if you go through even the non-fantasy positions, like, I think offensive tackle is pretty darn good.
01:44It's not amazing at the top.
01:47We're not going to see, like, three or four offensive tackles inside the top ten, most likely.
01:51And just overall, those prospects, Maui Noah from Miami, Caden Proctor from Alabama, they're really good.
01:57I don't think they would be OT1 in most other classes.
02:01The linebacker class, depending on how you feel about Sonny Stiles, it's decent,
02:06but it's a lot better later in terms of the depth that teams like the Bills could get third round,
02:12fourth round, fifth round.
02:13Not exactly those Jack Campbell types, Luke Kuechly types at the top.
02:18Corner is decent, but Jermaud McCoy from Tennessee is coming off a knee injury, didn't play at all last season,
02:25and some teams maybe flagged him for a degenerative knee issue.
02:28That was a report that came out earlier this week.
02:32Safety is very, very good.
02:34Wide receiver is solid.
02:35So if you kind of round that all together, along with a pretty down quarterback class
02:40and a bad running back class after Jeremiah Love, that's where you land on a below-average class,
02:46especially in those first 32 picks.
02:48So where do you think this all leads the Bills, Chris?
02:53I mean, obviously it's hard to forecast, you know, any year what someone is going to do at 26 in
02:59the draft.
02:59There's just so much unknown that's going to happen.
03:01But, like, what do you think they should be looking for, what they should be hoping for, is available to
03:08them at 26?
03:11I think either a player on offense or on defense that affects pass plays.
03:17That's pretty obvious, in my opinion, in this day and age.
03:20And even a team like the Bills last year that was not very good against the run, and even in
03:25that Broncos playoff game,
03:27like, they had some plays where they allowed big runs.
03:30But the reason they lost that game, or there wasn't any game where it was like, oh, man, they really
03:34just can't stop the run.
03:35That's why they ultimately lost.
03:37It's in the playoffs, and I think the microcosm, which we've talked about over the last couple months,
03:42is the last two throws were to Meikle Hardman and Brandon Cooks.
03:47And I don't believe they sacked Bo Nix in that final game.
03:51They were not able to get to another quarterback in what ultimately went down as a playoff loss.
03:56So whether it's an edge rusher, whether it's a wide receiver, and I don't necessarily think there is a first
04:04-round caliber defensive tackle that's a pass rusher.
04:07There could be a blitzing linebacker like Jacob Rodriguez or a Jake Golday that could be those surprise picks at
04:1526 or if they trade down.
04:17But we heard Joe Brady say, I want to do everything to make Josh Allen's life easier.
04:21Everything's relating back to Josh Allen.
04:22That's a great sign, and we'll see if they follow through with that.
04:25But if they don't go on the offensive side after trading for DJ Moore, someone that is going to make
04:32not even just that big play late in the playoff game,
04:34but you can leave a Bills playoff win and go, oh, man, Malachi Lawrence had a sack and seven pressures
04:40in that game.
04:40He was a difference maker on that defense, not necessarily someone that is very specifically good at something other than
04:47affecting the offensive pass game
04:49or stopping the opponents throwing the football in January.
04:52I've seen another few mock drafts since you were last with us last week, and even more than that, since
04:58the last time we talked about this specific player.
05:01But you tripped a wire for me mentioning whether there are defensive tackles that can rush the passer that weren't
05:08being picked at 26.
05:10And Caden McDonald is the guy from Ohio State that I know we've talked about already at least one time,
05:16if not more than that, Chris.
05:18That's another name I still saw, again, a couple times this week.
05:22And lay out your thoughts on him.
05:24I don't want to lead you anywhere.
05:26Just tell us what you think about, like, if the Bills landed there, would that be a good or a
05:30bad idea?
05:32So with Caden McDonald, it's good to be able to kind of get into the weeds with him because he's
05:36my defensive tackle number three behind Grayson Halton,
05:39who's not getting a lot of buzz from Oklahoma, great pass rusher.
05:42Caleb Banks, who looks like Deion Walker and has had a similar path to the NFL as Deion Walker.
05:49Big, super good in his second to last season, not as good last year and injured.
05:53Then it's Caden McDonald, who is definitely, at least in my opinion, the best run stuffer in the class.
06:00And that's not just eating double teams and taking up space.
06:04He can stack and shed.
06:06He's got a big wingspan, big tackling radius.
06:09He'll make tackles near the line of scrimmage.
06:11And that's part of the reason he was the Big Ten defensive lineman of the year in his true junior
06:16season.
06:17Only 15 pressures in his final season at Ohio State.
06:20The year before that, didn't play a lot.
06:22Three pressures.
06:22The year before that, as a freshman, played a little.
06:25Zero pressure.
06:26So, the Bills could say, look, we know we're not getting someone at defensive tackle that's going to give us
06:3370 pressures and 10 sacks.
06:35There's not a lot of Aaron Donalds that are necessarily selected at 26.
06:39And they could say, look, we also understand that he is the best run defensive, interior defensive lineman.
06:47Let's just go with that and get a specialist.
06:49I could see the Bills ultimately going in that direction.
06:52I think he's a good player, but in my evaluations and how I have them stacked at that position, run
06:58defense is kind of near the bottom in terms of importance and in terms of value to a player's ultimate
07:04grade.
07:05So, I actually have him graded much lower than that, but I think he's a very good player who is
07:10pretty young, only 21, and may have an upward-facing arrow.
07:14I just wonder if the Bills are like, all right, we want to get someone that gives us more early,
07:19or they're okay with a rotational first-round pick in Caden McDonald, who's going to be good against the run
07:25on first and second down, and probably as a rookie, not be on the field very often in those critical
07:31situations.
07:31So, prospect-wise, I think he's fine, but in terms of philosophy with positional value and what's important and what's
07:39not, I wouldn't really love him at 26 because he is just a great run defender and very green as
07:46a pass rusher.
07:47With Chris Trapasso, indeed, the Bills did not sack Bo Nix in that playoff loss, but they did get Trevor
07:55Lawrence the week before one time for a two-yard loss.
07:59So, that's not to be slept on. Gregory Rousseau.
08:01It's been pretty bleak during the playoffs.
08:02Yes, in the second quarter.
08:05On defense, a name today that came across my feet in a mock draft, C.J. Allen, a linebacker from
08:13Georgia.
08:14Was that a pro day today? He ran pretty fast, it seems.
08:17How high level of prospect is this, and is there a Bills fit, potentially?
08:22Yeah, he's one of the linebackers that I think the Bills could pick in the first round.
08:25He's not Roquan Smith, but I do think the pedigree coming from Georgia, Kirby Smart being that disciple of Nick
08:32Saban,
08:32I think he's done an awesome job developing a lot of those off-ball linebackers, just front seven players in
08:38general.
08:39C.J. Allen is kind of, to me, if Sean McDermott was still the head coach, I would feel like,
08:44oh, this is probably going to be the Bills' pick.
08:46I just don't know how the Bills feel about linebacker at this point, especially with, technically, Terrell Bernard and Dorian
08:54Williams on the roster,
08:55where you would be drafting a first-round linebacker and saying, all right, one of these two is going to
09:00be relegated to a backup role almost right away
09:02for us to get that good return on investment.
09:04In terms of Allen as a prospect, sideline to sideline range, he's one of the best and most sure tacklers
09:10in the class.
09:11I'm a little concerned about his ability to cover right away, and it almost always takes even first-round linebackers
09:20a year or two
09:21to learn the intricacies of being singled out in coverage, because that's what teams ultimately do to these young linebackers.
09:27So he's a really good prospect. He's not an amazing prospect, but if the Bills are like, hey, we didn't
09:33address it in free agency,
09:34we need more depth, and he may just be the best player on the board, he's definitely a name that
09:38I think Bills' fans have to kind of familiarize themselves with over the next week.
09:43You know, Chris, back earlier in the conversation, we were talking about how light, relatively speaking, the top 10 or
09:4915 picks are.
09:51There's a rumor that seems to have a lot of support that Dallas will trade up from 12 to 6
09:58to the Browns' position,
10:00and the Browns would move back. Remember the mantra, Bulldog, by the way, always trade with Dallas.
10:06That's one thing we've espoused on this show many times over the years.
10:10They call you, you pay extra special attention.
10:13I mean, you're a trade-down guy, as am I. If the Browns can go to 6 to 12 and
10:17get whatever that costs, that's probably great for them. Would you agree?
10:21Totally. Especially in this class. I mean, I wonder with the Browns, a team that already has a bunch of
10:25picks,
10:26but probably will want picks in 27. That would make a lot of sense.
10:30I don't have it in my bio to always trade with Dallas, but it does seem to pay pretty big
10:35dividends for teams that ultimately do that.
10:38And it does feel like the Cowboys with Jerry Jones are always feeling, hey, we can jump the Eagles,
10:43and we have the commanders on our heels, and the Giants could be a lot better.
10:47It wouldn't surprise me if the Cowboys are one of those teams that maybe try to take advantage of being
10:53able to trade up
10:54and get a little bit of a discount in that trade-up to ultimately get who they want.
10:58But, yeah, I think any team, I mean, really, maybe outside of the Jets, because they have so many picks
11:04already,
11:05should be looking to try to trade, maybe not into the late teens or the early 20s,
11:10but get out of that top five to top seven, because you're just picking players
11:14that almost would never be picked in that range most years.
11:18Well, this is not hard and fast, but you want to trade for a pick, you know, move up or
11:25into the first round or something.
11:26Seems like you have to go a round up the next year to be able to do that.
11:30If I'm looking for a good second-round pick in this draft, maybe that should cost me my next year's
11:36first.
11:37Is this year different, though?
11:39I mean, again, it is.
11:41Okay, coming from a fantasy standpoint, everybody hates this draft and loves next year.
11:45So, if that stretches out to include basically the whole board, then maybe I would, if I'm the Bills,
11:52like, would I listen to, just in a vacuum, okay, would I listen to a 27 first for my first
11:58at pick 26?
11:59Would I listen to that?
12:01I would.
12:02I mean, the only difference with the Bills is how all-in are they?
12:07Are they trying to, you know, like, do they understand, hey, Josh Allen's 30,
12:11or is it Brandon Bean going to kind of keep that philosophy that he's mentioned the last five or six
12:16years after playoff losses?
12:17Like, we want to keep banging on the door, and we feel like we're going to eventually bust it down.
12:22That's really what we don't know in the media or as fans, like, how they feel about it.
12:27But, yes, I think next year, just with the amount of guys that stayed in college
12:31and the guys that weren't even eligible at wide receiver, at edge rusher,
12:35and certainly quarterback, I think you need to listen to anything in terms of the trade-down market.
12:40And I always wonder, like, when the Bills traded up for Dalton Kincaid,
12:43Brandon Bean said afterward, and I'm sure a lot of GMs would say this,
12:47but he mentioned, like, oh, we wanted to get Kincaid because after Trent McDuffie went off the board,
12:52Kincaid was our last first-round grade that we had,
12:55and we didn't want to pick someone that we had a second-round grade at,
12:57like, at 25 or wherever they moved up from in that draft,
13:01it feels like this would be the year where the Bills may ultimately say,
13:05yeah, we only have, like, 11 first-round grades.
13:08It seems like teams are a little bit more stringent than even some in the media,
13:12like myself, that have fewer true blue-chip first-round grades.
13:17There's a decent chance that they're sitting there, even, they could get to 22, 23, 24 and go,
13:22all right, we have no more first-round grades.
13:24Let's try to get out of there.
13:26Even if we're offering our pick at a little bit of a discount,
13:29if it's getting us early round two of 27, that is super valuable,
13:34just based on the very early look at next year's class.
13:37Easier said than done, though.
13:39Yeah, I think that's a real hard sell.
13:40You need a suitor.
13:41You need a suitor, for sure.
13:43Yeah, and just the optics of pushing a pick off until next year,
13:48when they're in the window they're in, boy, that would be really tough.
13:51I recognize the value, but that almost, I feel like the values are relevant to their current situation.
13:57I would sooner advocate for, you know, not that I don't want to do the best I can in the
14:02trade,
14:02I just think it's hard to wait until next year.
14:03I saw, again today, Arizona connected to Simpson, Tyler Simpson, the Alabama quarter, Ty Simpson, right.
14:13You got 30 visit right under the wire here, I think, because those are winding down
14:17as far as how much longer teams can do that, right?
14:19So, I'm back to that Giants trade scenario from last year, where Houston got paid $33.99
14:28and a third for the following year.
14:32And, like, if Arizona, like, you tell me, right, I mean, is, just because Jackson Dart went in that window
14:39last year,
14:40that doesn't mean that's where Simpson has to go.
14:42But, boy, if Arizona's into that idea and they want to do business,
14:46I definitely want to be involved in that conversation.
14:49Yeah, that would be the best of both worlds, to get that third rounder.
14:53Obviously, you would get the early second, get the third rounder this year,
14:56and the third rounder next year.
14:57And I do agree that I could see just the general consensus being like,
15:01look, we, like, the league in general probably liked Jackson Dart more than the league likes Ty Simpson right now.
15:09But if you look at the history of trade-ups throughout the draft,
15:14and you look at, all right, number, say, number 16 was traded last year, let's say.
15:19You look back at the previous year, the parameters are almost identical.
15:22And it's what actually happens is typically the teams go, okay, here's what the trade was last year.
15:28You need to do a little better.
15:30There's almost, like, interest or, like, inflation that happens.
15:33So that could almost be where, yeah, look, we get that Jackson Dart was a better prospect than Ty Simpson,
15:40but it's also a year into the future.
15:42The salary cap has gone up.
15:43There's so many things that have happened.
15:44And so I could see the Bills actually saying, look, it would be a discount,
15:48but actually it's going to end up being even because in a vacuum you would actually need to pay a
15:52little bit more to get into that first round.
15:55And that would, again, be a win-win to get the second rounder, third rounder, and the next year third.
16:00That's something that the Bills, at 26, unlikely to have their first-round talent prospect there.
16:06They should definitely have their phones open and probably already be talking with the Cardinals about that to get that
16:12set up,
16:13where they could almost call the Cardinals and say, look, no one's here.
16:17Like, do you want to trade up now to get your quarterback?
16:20Chris, you've mentioned Casey Concepcion many times.
16:22Like, what's your favorite idea?
16:23He's been your favorite idea.
16:25I've said, boy, everybody seems to like this player.
16:28Sometimes you open a mock draft and he's in the top half of the first round.
16:31But not always.
16:33What's your latest assessment of the wide receiver, you know, ranking?
16:38I saw Mel Kuyper had him, you know, between 6 and 10.
16:43Oh, wow.
16:44And Branch, I think, is a player he had fourth.
16:46And Chris Brazel was up there among his top receivers.
16:49The top three were the same as you usually see.
16:52Tate, Lemon, Tyson, in some order.
16:55So what's your latest guess on Concepcion?
16:59You mentioning that Kuyper hadn't picked that high or mocked that high is kind of surprising.
17:04I was going to say that a lot of the big NFL draft media analysts that I've seen
17:09are kind of mocking Casey Concepcion between pick, like, 20 and 27 to the 49ers.
17:16Chris, excuse me.
17:17I meant wide receiver, 8 or whatever it was.
17:21Oh, wide receiver.
17:21Yes.
17:22Then he had other receivers, a couple of whom I mentioned, higher than Concepcion.
17:26What I was going to say is it feels like the little NFL draft analysts like myself all
17:34love him, but the NFL, and we're kind of assuming that the Mel Kuypers and the Daniel Jeremias
17:40and Peter Schragers and company are semi-mouthpieces for what they're hearing from scouts, GMs,
17:46they're having those conversations with the real decision makers.
17:48It seems as though the NFL is actually a little bit lower on Concepcion than the analytics
17:54people, the film guys that are doing similar work to what I do.
17:58So that does make it pretty interesting.
18:00And for someone that's been really wanting him for the bills, I think it makes it maybe
18:06a little more likely that he's available.
18:07It almost seems like Omar Cooper Jr.
18:10and even Denzel Boston over these last, you know, final 10 days before the draft, they've
18:15actually, at least in terms of where they're being mocked in those Mel Kuyper type mock
18:21drafts, have actually gone ahead of KC Concepcion.
18:24So whether that's lying season and Concepcion's like the second receiver off the board, we'll
18:28see.
18:28But yeah, I think it's almost like the media and fans seem to like Concepcion a little
18:34bit more than the NFL does at large.
18:36Okay.
18:36All right.
18:37Get your rest.
18:38Week to go.
18:38We'll talk to you next Wednesday and kick things off after that.
18:42All right, guys.
18:43Thanks a lot.
18:44Chris Trapasso, draftgradebook.com for his latest insight.
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