00:00Hello from the Bureau with an update on tropical cyclone Myla in the Solomon Sea.
00:05Now in the last 12 to 24 hours we've seen a weakening.
00:08As you can see yesterday we had these spiralling bands coming into a very intense tropical cyclone
00:13but overnight and this morning we've lost that signature in the cloud pattern
00:17and you can really see that weakening in the water vapour imagery
00:20with these spiralling bands kind of disappearing
00:22but also note that sustained convection around the centre of circulation
00:27and that more circular like pattern and eye feature has also disappeared overnight and this morning.
00:33So that tells us that this system is currently in a weakening phase
00:36and that's because we're seeing stronger shear in the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere.
00:40Now what I mean by that is we're seeing strong winds in the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere
00:44compared to in the lower levels and that's kind of starting to separate the system a little bit
00:48and that's what is one of the features that is weakening this system.
00:52So let's look at that in more detail.
00:54While we do have a Category 3 right now we're likely to see that weaken in the coming hours
00:59into a Category 2 and possibly more as we get a better handle on just how much the system has
01:04weakened.
01:05And then our next thing we'll be watching is how this cyclone interacts with Papua New Guinea.
01:09This is a mountainous peninsula of Papua New Guinea
01:12and that's going to have big impacts on where the cyclone tracks
01:15but also the intensity of the cyclone.
01:17If it does track further to the north we're going to see it weaken more
01:21and maybe only be a trough or a tropical low as it approaches the Queensland coast next week.
01:26But currently we expect it to be further south and if it does take that path
01:30we're likely to maintain cyclone, maintain I should say, cyclone intensity
01:34as we move through the weekend and into early next week
01:37as it approaches far northern Queensland coast.
01:40So we'll be watching that closely in the coming days
01:43and that's why it's vital to stay up to date with the latest forecast and warnings.
01:46And if you live in far northern Queensland, continue to check back
01:50with the latest tracks maps issued every six hours.
01:53So let's look at all this in more detail.
01:55Here's just one scenario.
01:57We've still got a decent system here, a fairly strong system
02:00as we move through Friday and Saturday
02:02but notice it weaken quickly as it starts interacting
02:05with the peninsula of Papua New Guinea
02:08and maybe interacting with more dry air and stronger shear as well as I mentioned earlier.
02:12And that means we might only see a tropical low or trough impacting the northern Queensland coast
02:18into early next week.
02:19But I must stress this is just one scenario
02:21and there is a range of scenarios where it could occur
02:24where it goes further north and weakens
02:26or further south and maintains cyclone strength over the weekend
02:29and into early next week.
02:31And one other way we can show that the impacts of the Queensland coast
02:34aren't really expected to occur until we get to Monday night or Tuesday
02:38is looking at our total rainfall.
02:40With these southerly winds wrapping around the system
02:43we're going to keep that rainfall offshore
02:45until we get to that Monday afternoon and into Tuesday time frame
02:48when we'll start to see the rain and wind start to pick up along the Queensland coast.
02:53But those impacts are highly dependent on the exact track
02:56and intensity of tropical cyclone Myla.
03:00So it is important to stay up to date on the latest forecasts and warnings
03:03by our website and app.
03:04We'll issue track maps every six hours
03:07so make sure you listen to those
03:08particularly if you're in far northern Queensland.
03:10So
03:15you
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