00:00Severe tropical cyclone Myla, currently around 900 kilometres east of Port Moresby in Papua
00:06New Guinea, is now starting to move towards the west-southwest and likely to impact parts
00:12of far northern Queensland early next week.
00:15And firstly we can see that on the satellite image, a very organised and well-structured
00:20tropical cyclone out in the Solomon Sea, as you can see a long way away from the Queensland
00:26coast.
00:26But we can really see this cyclone when we look at the water vapour imagery.
00:30Now over the last few days it's been Category 4 and Category 5, it's currently a Category
00:354 system.
00:37Now it's a small system, but it's an organised system, and you can see this eye feature here
00:41right in the middle, and that tells us it is a very organised system, still a long way
00:45away from the Queensland coast, but over the last few days it's been sitting in the Solomon
00:50Sea, but we have started to see a westward track in the last few hours, and that's thanks
00:55to the main steering influence, being this big upper level high pressure system over
01:00the Coral Sea, is now interacting with this cyclone, and we'll start moving it towards
01:05the west and then south-west in the coming days towards the far northern Queensland coast.
01:10Now we can look at all that in more detail with the current track map.
01:13As I mentioned, severe tropical cyclone mylar, currently a Category 4 system, is starting
01:19to move towards the west-northwest and then south-west as we move through Friday and Saturday.
01:25And that's going to impact residents and communities around some of the Solomon Islands, and may
01:29even impact far southern parts of Papua New Guinea.
01:33Then, as we move into the weekend, and then early next week, we're going to see that track
01:38backwards towards the west-southwest. Also note the cone of uncertainty does get larger as
01:43we move into that day four and day five time frame, and that's because there's still a range
01:47of scenarios of exactly where tropical cyclone mylar will track. Many have it coming towards
01:53northern parts of the Peninsula District, north of about Cooktown, maybe around the Lockhart
01:57Coen River area. But some model guidance does have it a little bit further south towards
02:02the Cooktown area. And that's what we're watching closely in the coming days, as we get a better
02:06handle on exactly the track and intensity of tropical cyclone mylar as it continues tracking
02:12towards the west-southwest. But as it does so over the next few days, we're not expecting
02:17much rainfall or wind impacts through much of the Queensland coast. So here it is this afternoon
02:22and into Friday, and notice pretty dry with light to moderate winds for much of the Queensland
02:26coast on Saturday, on Sunday, and even on Monday as it approaches the coast. We're still
02:32looking at fairly calm conditions across coastal parts. And at this stage, it's
02:36probably not later into Monday into Tuesday, where we could start seeing more stronger
02:40impacts for the Queensland coast. And another way I could show you this is with our total
02:45rainfall. Now looking at rainfall from now until Monday morning, you'll notice that almost
02:50no rainfall is expected for much of northern Queensland. And that's thanks for this cyclone
02:55sucking all that weather away from the coast due to those southerly winds wrapping around.
02:59So it really isn't until Monday into Tuesday, we'll start seeing impacts to much of the northern
03:04Queensland coast. So to reiterate, severe tropical cyclone mylar, currently a category four system,
03:11finally starting its west-southwest track today and in the coming days, and then more westerly
03:16as we get into the latter part of the weekend and into the early next week, with possible cyclone
03:21impacts somewhere between Cooktown and then Lockhart River, even Thursday Island early next week,
03:27particularly Monday and Tuesday. So if you live in far northern Queensland or know someone that does,
03:32make sure you stay up to date with the latest forecasts and warnings via our website and app.
03:36Track maps are being issued every six hours. And as we get into the weekend and early next week,
03:41if we're still expecting impacts in Queensland, we could see watches and warnings issued. So please
03:46stay up to date. And as always, we'll continue to keep you updated here at the Bureau.
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