00:00Hello and welcome to this week's 10-day trend. Now after the warm spell we've had over the
00:05last couple of days, a change is on its way to something a bit cooler and more unsettled.
00:10And when we do these longer-range forecasts, we tend to look at trends and patterns to
00:15help us determine what the forecast is going to be doing. But what's interesting about
00:18this one is that actually the global model that we use here at the Met Office actually
00:22acts like a bit of an outlier compared to various other models. Let me show you a couple
00:27of examples. So here we are to end on Wednesday. We can see by these yellow-orange colours,
00:33that's where much of the country is still in the midst of a bit of a warm spell. Then this
00:36cold front sweeps its way south-eastwards through Thursday and we can see that colder air following
00:41on behind. So things are turning cooler, more unsettled. And the unsettled spell is all thanks
00:46to this first area of low pressure that sweeps up into the north-west, bringing a fairly wet
00:51and windy spell here at times. And then the global model is suggesting that this low actually
00:56then pushes up towards Iceland. But quite a few other models actually keep it towards the
01:00north-west of the country for a time as we head into Sunday. More on that in a moment,
01:04because now I want to draw your attention to this next area of low pressure following on
01:08behind me. Now, notice it currently sits on Sunday between two jet streaks of the jet stream,
01:14a fast-flowing ribbon of air high up in our atmosphere. And notice as we head through Sunday,
01:18early next week, then eventually pushes into that second jet streak. And then it develops
01:24quite a deep area of low pressure just towards the south-west of the country. And once again,
01:29quite a few other models actually disagree with this outcome. Now, before we talk about
01:33the weekend and next week, let's just draw your attention to what's happening tomorrow.
01:38And as I say, turning cooler for many, but actually across the far south and south-east,
01:42many areas are clinging on to that better weather for a little bit longer. So drier brights
01:47here, some sunny spells at times, and we'll hold on to the warmer weather here. But elsewhere,
01:51much cooler, some brighter spells, but also plenty of showers, particularly across Scotland
01:56and Northern Ireland, where they could turn heavy, if not blustery at times, and likely
02:00bringing us some snow across the hills of Scotland. And it's across kind of central areas of England
02:06where that cold front sits. So you can see there's not loads of rain sitting upon that system.
02:10So it fairly fizzles out as it drifts its way south-eastward. So not loads of rain. The bulk
02:15of the rain will probably be where we see plenty of showers. So we can see highs reaching around
02:1920 to 21 degrees across the south-east. So still warm for the time of year, but many
02:24other areas between 8 to 13 degrees Celsius. So much cooler compared to the 24 hours prior.
02:31Then let's jump ahead in towards Friday. And once again, there will be lots of dry, bright
02:36weather around, but still that cooler feel in the air. Then the first area of low pressure,
02:40which I showed you earlier, will eventually start to push its way north-eastwards, likely
02:44bringing some spells of rain across Northern Ireland, eventually into western and south-western Scotland.
02:49By the end of the day, this could be heavy and rather blustery at times as it starts to move
02:53through. Now, once again, some differences. I'd say the global model pushes this rain a bit too
02:58far eastwards through the course of Friday. So I think the bulk of England and Wales will probably
03:03remain largely dry, not really seeing any rain until later into the day. So once again, mostly dry
03:08and bright for many areas, but still fairly chilly, particularly across Scotland. Highs only reaching
03:13around 8 degrees here and still reaching around 13 to 14 degrees across the south-east. So pleasant
03:19in the brighter spells, but not quite as warm as recent days.
03:24Now, following along later Friday, as this system pushes its way north-eastwards, it's really going
03:30to bring in some quite strong gusty winds, a risk of gales, if not possibly some very isolated,
03:35severe gales around exposed areas of Northern Ireland and Western Scotland. But notice where we are
03:40seeing the gusts, where we see the pink shaded areas, most of the strongest winds are going to be
03:45around coastal areas. The thing is, with a southerly flow around Northern Ireland, that can still bring
03:50us some fairly large waves. So a chance we could see some difficult driving conditions, particularly
03:55around coastal areas, and a chance we could see some fairly strong gales here. It's just more because
04:01we're seeing a southerly later on into Friday that we could actually see some possible impactful weather
04:07here. But at the moment, we are warning free for these areas. But do keep an eye on our website
04:11if you do find yourself here, because there's a very small chance that there could be a wind warning
04:15issued. But for the time being, just keep an eye out. And of course, you can take a look at
04:19our advice
04:20through online and across our social media channels. Then over the weekend, once again, we've got this
04:26area of low pressure towards the northwest. This is the global model I'm showing you now. So it drifts that
04:32area of low pressure up towards Iceland, which should ease off the wet and windy spell across
04:37the northwest. But notice still a fair few isobars there. So it's still going to be fairly breezy
04:41with some showery outbreaks. But actually, the global model isn't the preferred solution at this
04:47time. Here's the global model above me here. And below, we've got the European model. And just notice
04:53through Saturday, they've got the low in fairly similar areas. Then the global model pushes that area
04:59of low pressure towards Iceland. But take a look at what the European model does. It actually keeps
05:03that system towards the northwest. So a continuation of the wet and windy weather. And at this time,
05:09quite a few other models agree with this output. So it's likely the northwest of the country
05:15will continue to see a wet and windy spell. And elsewhere, still a fairly decent westerly flow.
05:20So there's probably going to be plenty of showers at times. But hopefully some
05:23dry and brighter interludes in between the showers and still feeling fairly cool out there as well.
05:29Now, after the weekend, that's also when it becomes rather interesting. Here's that second low,
05:33which I showed you earlier, almost sat in between these two jet streaks. But by this point on Sunday,
05:38just pushing into this northern one. Now, once again, this is our global model. And watch what it
05:44does is it sweeps up this area of low pressure. It pushes into what we call the left jet exit
05:48of the
05:49jet stream, the cooler side of the jet. And when areas of low pressure move into this area of the
05:55jet stream, that's where we can see some deepening of areas of low pressure. And in turn, that will
06:02be a wet and windy spell across parts of the southwest. Let's once again take a look at what the
06:07European model is showing. So here's that initial area of low pressure eventually drifting its way
06:12northwards. This is the global model pushing that secondary area of low pressure into the southwest.
06:16And what's the European model showing? Nothing really at all, really. No real signs of any areas
06:22of low pressure. If anything, there's a slight ridge of high pressure towards the south. And by
06:26Monday, you can see very different outputs from our global model and also our European model. So
06:32which one do we go with? Well, of course, here at the Met Office, then we take a look at
06:36a few other
06:36models. And you can see here from our American model, also our German model icon, once again,
06:42not really showing any signs of an area of low pressure pushing up into the southwest. So
06:48we often go with the majority. And there's not really many, many signs of an area of low pressure
06:53pushing through on Monday. So even though it's showing a slight ridge of high pressure, I'm not
06:57going to say it's going to be completely dry and sunny. There'll probably still be some showers at times.
07:01But potential impactful wet and windy weather at the moment on Monday looks rather unlikely.
07:07And as we head into Tuesday, once again, there's a slight alignment of our models, but still some
07:12differences. Here are some precipitation totals on Tuesday. Once again, the global model showing
07:17some fairly significant totals across southern parts of Wales, southwest England, around 35mm of
07:23rain. But then if we take a look at our European model, once again, it is signalling some rain across
07:28parts of Wales and southern parts of England, but the totals aren't quite as high. So whether or not
07:33it's going to be impactful rain, well, actually, there's quite a small chance. But nevertheless,
07:37on Tuesday, some rather heavy showers pushing into parts of the south. So it's not going to be
07:41dry. And elsewhere, probably a mix of sunshine and showers. Then what about after that? Well,
07:47there's a good signal actually of high pressure, but I'm afraid it's not high pressure building over
07:52the country. We're actually showing some quite bright red colours, and that actually indicates
07:55a Scandinavian high. So that's when high pressure sits to the east of us. So by the time we reach
08:00next week,
08:01the weather could look something like this. High pressure sat out to the east, so many areas
08:05of the central south, southeast probably seeing relatively dry conditions. And for the second
08:11half of our 10-day outlook, we're probably going to see something similar, this real battleground
08:16between the northwest and central south and southeast, where the northwest often catch the wet and windy
08:21spell as weather fronts try to push in. They bump up against the high pressure, so often push northwards
08:27and don't really push southeastwards at all really. So that's where we'll see the drier and brighter
08:32conditions. But Northern Ireland, western parts of Scotland, perhaps northwestern parts of England
08:36at times, probably seeing some more wet weather to come. And how about temperatures? Well, I'm afraid
08:42the warm spell was going to be always a brief one. If we just follow this solid red line on
08:47these
08:48meteograms, that's where temperatures, where the average temperatures are for the time of year. And you can
08:52notice the spread of temperatures really dropping down over the next few days. That's our cooler spell.
08:57And as we head further into April, you notice there's a slight increase towards average, quite a
09:03few wide boxes further into the outlook. So that just means there's more spread of what the potential
09:07maximum temperatures could be, or minimum temperatures, if you're looking at the purple
09:13meteograms here. So a chance we could start to see something a little bit warmer as we head into April,
09:17but overall, it's probably going to be remaining around average. So over the next 10 days, there
09:23will be some changeable weather, and probably temperatures remaining around average. But of
09:27course, don't forget for your day-to-day updates, you can always join us here on YouTube. Bye-bye.
Comments