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US President Donald Trump announced a five-day pause on military strikes against Iranian energy infrastructure after 24 days of bombing.
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00:00Good evening, big news coming in on day 24 of the Iran-Israel and U.S. conflict.
00:04U.S. President Donald Trump has just made a major announcement.
00:08He said he's directed the Department of War to pause any and all military offensive plan
00:13to target Iranian energy infrastructure and power plants for the next five days.
00:18Donald Trump claims Iran is very keen on a ceasefire and talks have been on in the past two days,
00:24which he believes are very positive.
00:26So before I get you what Donald Trump said, let me read out to you what he's posted on Truth
00:31Social,
00:32his social media platform and that in all capitals.
00:34He said, and I quote,
00:36I'm pleased to report that the United States of America and the country of Iran have had over the last
00:42two days
00:42very good and productive conversation regarding a complete and total resolution of all our hostilities in the Middle East
00:50based on the tenor and tone of these in-depth, detailed and constructive conversations which will continue throughout the week.
01:00I have instructed the Department of War to postpone any and all military strikes against Iranian power plants
01:08and energy infrastructure for a five-day period, subject of course to the success of the ongoing meetings and discussions.
01:16Unquote.
01:17President Trump says he hopes this will, this, all of this will settle down very soon.
01:24Talks with Iran have been held, in his view, in a very positive atmosphere.
01:28If the deal happens, it will be great for Iran, he says.
01:31Iran badly wants to make a deal.
01:34Donald Trump, of course, did concede he hasn't heard from the Supreme Leader,
01:38the Ayatollah Mujtama Khmeri yet, or whether he's dead or alive, perhaps he may be dead,
01:44but Trump believes it will be a great start for Iran if there is a breakthrough.
01:49He's claimed he did not call Iran, and this is significant.
01:53The U.S. President, Donald Trump, he claims he did not make the call, but he received a call from
01:59Iran.
02:00But he hasn't clarified who he received a call from.
02:03But he did indicate there will be a conversation very soon, maybe later today.
02:08Before I get you more on the story, let's listen in to the U.S. President Donald Trump
02:13giving some details of conversations that the U.S. is having with Iran.
02:20I think Israel will be very happy with what we have.
02:24We just spoke to Israel a little while ago.
02:27I think they'll be very happy.
02:29This will be peace for Israel, long-term peace, guaranteed peace.
02:33If this happens, and I can't guarantee it, but I think it's going to, my life is a deal.
02:39That's all I do is deals my whole life.
02:41I think this is something that's going to happen.
02:44And why wouldn't it happen?
02:45So, tomorrow morning, sometime, their time, we were expected to blow up their largest electric generating plant
02:56that cost over $10 billion to build.
02:59It's a very good one.
03:00There was no dirt of money.
03:02And one shot, it's gone.
03:06It collapsed.
03:08Why would they want that?
03:10So, they called.
03:11I didn't call.
03:12They called.
03:13They want to make a deal.
03:15And we are very willing to make a deal.
03:17It's got to be a good deal.
03:18And it's got to be no more wars, no more nuclear weapons.
03:21They're not going to have nuclear weapons anymore.
03:24They're agreeing to that.
03:25Any of that stuff is no deal.
03:27What we think, we think, all we can do is think, look, we have numerous leader groups.
03:33They've all been killed.
03:35Very dangerous position.
03:37Khomeini was killed.
03:39Khomeini's son is unavailable.
03:41Nobody knows what happened to him.
03:42I can say they haven't seen him there either.
03:45Something is going on with him.
03:47But regardless, I don't consider him really the leader.
03:50But they do have some leaders left.
03:54Because we blew up group number one, group number two, a lot of group number three.
03:59But we think we have people that are very representative of the country and will do a good job.
04:05You said you want to get the embraced uranium.
04:08How are you going to get the embraced uranium?
04:10Well, it's very easy.
04:12If we have a deal with them, we're going down and we'll take it ourselves.
04:18So, you heard the American president.
04:20The Iranian foreign ministry suggested Iran was not engaging with the United States on ending the war.
04:27In fact, they said President Trump's statement was part of an effort to reduce energy prices and to buy time
04:35before implementing his military plans.
04:37This, according to Mizan.
04:40Now, Mizan is Iran's state-run news agency.
04:43This report then goes on to say,
04:45Yes, there have been some initiatives from regional countries to reduce tensions.
04:50And Iran's response to all of them is very clear.
04:55We are not the party that started the war.
04:58All such requests should be directed to Washington, D.C.
05:01Iranian state media and semi-official outlets have portrayed President Trump's announcement on talks
05:07as a sign that the United States is backing down in the face of Iran's pledge to retaliate for any
05:16U.S. strikes on power and energy sites.
05:20The report says, and I quote,
05:22Trump, out of fear of Iran's response,
05:30This is a report in the state broadcaster IRIB.
05:35Now, this is happening at a time when the Israeli defense forces say they've conducted a series of airstrikes deep
05:43inside Iran.
05:45In fact, they said in a statement that the Iranian regime targets in the heart of Tehran had been acquired.
05:54And this was a statement that was made by IDF moments after President Donald Trump claimed the U.S. and
06:00Iran had held productive conversations aimed at ending the war.
06:04Several locations across the Iranian capital have been targeted in this latest waves of airstrikes.
06:10And not just one wave, multiple waves of airstrikes according to information that's coming in.
06:16But there's another party here.
06:35So, is Oman still trying to ensure, one, that the Strait of Hormuz is open for ships to come out,
06:45for oil and gas supply to happen?
06:47And is Oman, again, the mediator between U.S. and Iran?
06:51I'll get you more on that story.
06:52But first, we get you this report on the day's developments.
07:0623 days of destruction.
07:1623 days of devastation.
07:2723 days with the world on edge.
07:34Global markets in a tailspin.
07:39Oil prices surging to dangerous highs.
07:45For over three weeks, the United States, Israel and Iran have been locked in a brutal face-off.
07:50And the world has paid the price.
07:58And just when it seemed, this conflict was becoming the new normal, a sudden twist.
08:09Barely hours before his Strait of Hormuz ultimatum expired, President Donald Trump has hit the pause button.
08:18No strikes on Iran's power plants.
08:21No hits on energy infrastructure, at least for the next five days.
08:26In a statement, Trump claims Washington and Tehran have held productive talks over the past 48 hours.
08:33Talks that could potentially end hostilities.
08:37This is the same president who just days ago threatened to obliterate Iran's power plants in Tehran, did not back
08:44down.
08:44And from day one, he vowed to dismantle the Iranian regime.
08:57Since the war began, oil prices have exploded from under $80 per barrel to nearly $120.
09:05A spike that has rattled economies, shaken governments and squeezed consumers worldwide.
09:10And then you have the markets.
09:13Global equities have taken a hit.
09:15Even the U.S. economy is feeling the pressure.
09:19The moment Trump hinted at a pause, oil prices dipped.
09:23It is also reacting to the development.
09:25Gift Nifty has surged, signaling a likely relief rally for stock markets on Tuesday.
09:30The Ministry of External Affairs say it is closely monitoring the situation.
09:57But the ground reality remains murky.
10:00Tehran claims there have been initiatives to calm the tensions, but believe Trump's call is nothing but an attempt to
10:07decrease energy prices and gain time for military action.
10:13An Iranian media citing sources says there will be no return to normal in the state of Hormuz, not while
10:20psychological warfare continues.
10:22Another Iranian outlet flatly denies any talks ever took place.
10:27No back channels, no intermediaries, nothing.
10:33So what is this really?
10:35A genuine step towards peace?
10:37Or just a tactical pause before the next strike?
10:40Or is this President Donald Trump trying to signal calm?
10:44The war may not be over, but for the moment, the world is breathing a little easier.
10:53Bureau Report, India Today.
10:59So let's try and make sense of these fast-paced developments in the past 24 hours.
11:03Dialogue and diplomacy are always welcome, but is this a tactical pause or an important first step on that long
11:11road to peace?
11:12Have the US and Israeli war aims been met?
11:15What brought about this sudden U-turn?
11:18We'll talk about this in greater detail, but let's once again listen in to President Trump, where he very clearly
11:25says he didn't make the call.
11:27Iran made the call, but he's responding.
11:30And that in case this dialogue does move forward, it will bring peace.
11:36Listen in.
11:40I think Israel will be very happy with what we have.
11:44We just spoke to Israel a little while ago.
11:47I think they'll be very happy.
11:49This will be peace for Israel, long-term peace, guaranteed peace.
11:53If this happens, and I can't guarantee it, but I think it's going to, my life is a deal.
11:59That's all I do is deal my whole life.
12:01I think this is something that's going to happen.
12:04And why wouldn't it happen?
12:05So tomorrow morning, sometime, their time, we were expected to blow up their largest electric generating plant that cost over
12:17$10 billion to build.
12:19It's a very good one.
12:21There was no dirt of money.
12:22And one shot, it's gone.
12:26It collapsed.
12:28Why would they want that?
12:30So they called.
12:31I didn't call.
12:32They called.
12:33They want to make a deal.
12:35And we are very willing to make a deal.
12:37It's got to be a good deal.
12:38And it's got to be no more wars, no more nuclear weapons.
12:42They're not going to have nuclear weapons anymore.
12:44They're agreeing to that.
12:45Any of that stuff is no deal.
12:48What we think, we think, all we can do is think, look, we have numerous leader groups.
12:53They've all been killed.
12:54Very dangerous position.
12:57Khomeini was killed.
12:59Khomeini's son is unavailable.
13:01Nobody knows what happened to him.
13:03I can say they haven't seen him there either.
13:05Something is going on with him.
13:07But regardless, I don't consider him really the leader.
13:10But they do have some leaders left.
13:14Because we blew up group number one, group number two, a lot of group number three.
13:20But we think we have people that are very representative of the country and will do a good job.
13:26You said you want to get the enriched uranium.
13:28How are you going to get the enriched uranium?
13:30Are you going to send it to them?
13:31Very easy.
13:32If we have a deal with them, we're going down and we'll take it ourselves.
13:38So, Trump says all he does is make a deal and he thinks that they're moving forward in the right
13:44direction.
13:45What brought about the sudden U-turn?
13:47Have all the military aims been met?
13:49Joining me on this India First special broadcast is Michael Patrick Mulroy.
13:53He's president of Fogbo LLC, Lobo Institute and former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense, retired CIA and U.S. Marine.
13:59Welcome, Sandeep Unnithan, Senior Journalist, Sushant Sareen, Senior Fellow of the Observer Research Foundation.
14:05Joining me from Israel is Dr. Shukhi Friedman, Director General of the Jewish People Policy Institute.
14:11Welcome, James Borden is a Middle East expert on warfare.
14:16Joining us on the show, Michael Mulroy, your reading of President Trump pressing this pause button on striking Iranian power
14:22plants and energy infrastructure.
14:24Iranian media says President Trump blinked as Iran threatened to hit back at energy infrastructure across the Gulf region.
14:33Did President Trump blink, sir?
14:36It's good to be with you, my fellow guests and your audience.
14:40I think so.
14:41I think what happened was he made this ultimatum, you know, 48 hours and he was going to start striking
14:46a power plant, which is basically civilian infrastructure.
14:50So there's all sorts of issues with that.
14:52But the biggest issue here is Iran laid out a list of the retaliatory strikes that they were going to
14:58take in our key Gulf partner countries.
15:01And they've already proven they have the ability to strike in these countries, both civilian targets, military installations and oil
15:10and gas energy infrastructure.
15:12That would have sent, of course, if they would have hit not only the power plants, which runs their desalinization
15:18plants, which causes a humanitarian crisis for sure, but it would also likely strike again these oil and gas infrastructure,
15:27which could send energy prices going up even further.
15:32So I think he understood that.
15:33And that's why he came up with this idea that he'll give him five more days.
15:39It's very standard for President Trump to keep adjusting his own essential goalpost.
15:46But it's important.
15:47And I think it's I'm happy it happened.
15:49And hopefully there is a dialogue between the United States and whatever is remaining of the regime that can lead
15:57to a diplomatic off ramp.
15:59Because every other path seems to be toward escalation, whether it's the U.S. inserting ground forces into this campaign,
16:07which is certainly a possibility.
16:09Many are on the way or Iran permanently closing the Strait of Hormuz, or at least mostly permanently if they
16:16use all their naval money.
16:16Sure, but what part of this was not done on the 27th of February?
16:19Dialogue was on even then, but I'll come to that point in just a moment.
16:22Dr. Friedman, Trump announced a pause on a day that Israel said it had launched perhaps the fiercest attack in
16:31the heart of Tehran, and especially after the Dimona strike.
16:35Does this pause put Israel on a sticky wicket, Dr. Friedman?
16:41You know, I think the national Trump came after three, more than three weeks of campaigns going against thousands of
16:51targets in Iran.
16:53And the result of this campaign is tremendous because we don't have the full information, but according to the IDF
17:02spokesperson and the U.S. military spokesperson, both the IDF, the Air Force and the U.S. Air Force achieved
17:11tremendous achievements along the missiles and the nuclear planets around Iran and its program.
17:19So I think the Trump announcement today is aimed to try to get the deal he is declaring he wants
17:31to achieve along the war.
17:33There are three conditions that he put on the table, first, to completely stop Iranian nuclear enrichment and random enrichment
17:44on Iranian soil, and taking the Iranians that have been enriched already from Iran.
17:52Secondly, he wanted the missiles program to completely stop, and Iran stopped threatening its neighbors and Israel.
18:02Now, if you follow the declaration of Trump, along this day, you see that he is constantly repeating these demands,
18:12and therefore we have to wait and see whether his negotiation with what looks like to be Kalibaf, the chair
18:21of the parliament, is going to be fruitful.
18:24And if he correct, and if he correct, and the Iranians called him and wanted to negotiate, it means that
18:31they are recognizing the weakness of the regime, they are more fragile, and then they are willing to negotiate knowing
18:39what are the conditions of Trump to get a deal.
18:43Okay, Sushant Sarin, is this an off-ramp, and did President Trump blink, or as Dr. Friedman says, Iran has
18:52realized how fragile, how weak Iran is now, day 24, that is why Iran sought dialogue and not President Trump.
19:02Gaurav, one, Iran is denying, at least as of now, they seem to be denying that there's any dialogue going
19:08on, and we don't know who the Americans are dialoguing with.
19:13Now, there are, nobody actually really knows what's going on in Donald Trump's mind, but let me take a couple
19:19of guesses.
19:20It could be one of these possibilities.
19:22One, that he's tackled, right?
19:24He's chickened out, as somebody was earlier saying on the show, that he realized that the retaliation from Iran will
19:32create a much bigger mess.
19:34So he is backing down.
19:36That is one possibility.
19:37Second possibility, again, I'm speculating, he could be playing the markets.
19:42You know, suddenly the oil prices go up and down, other things happen.
19:45Second, and we know that there has been this problem in the Trump administration.
19:50Third, there is a possibility that they needed a kind of a pause before they launched the next wave of
19:58serious attacks on Iran,
20:00and they needed to protect certain important infrastructure.
20:04Maybe that is the reason they needed to get some forces in place.
20:07And the last and the most tantalizing possibility is that they are actually in negotiation with some parts of the
20:16Iranian regime,
20:17that there are some talks going on.
20:20Trump has given a hint of it, that if in the next couple of days you see some big changes
20:28coming around in Iran,
20:30then I would imagine that there is an off-ramp for everybody then.
20:37That regime change within the regime is possible.
20:41It could be happening, that there could be some moves going on.
20:45It is possible that some substantial chunk or a powerful chunk of the Iranian establishment
20:52realizes that this war is proving to be extremely expensive for Iran,
20:57regardless of all the other posturing they are doing,
21:01that they ultimately need to run the state,
21:03and they cannot if this war continues.
21:06So, they are trying to go to wean away some of the hardliners,
21:10bring in somebody else,
21:12get into a long-winded negotiation.
21:13So, an off-ramp is actually being found.
21:16That is the most tantalizing possibility.
21:19But which one…
21:20Very interesting.
21:20Should that happen?
21:21But Sandeep, from a 48-hour ultimatum to a five-day pause claims of reaching a deal and back-channel
21:30working or words to that effect,
21:32Sandeep, Iranians say there is no dialogue happening.
21:35But is it to just test waters inside Iran?
21:40You know, whether Basij or the IRGC or the hardliners, will some of them break?
21:45Is there a conversation happening with the political leadership of the country and they are working something within?
21:51What does it appear?
21:52Because on the face of it, Iran continues to strike back and hard.
21:57Yeah.
21:57Gaurav, you know, right now it's literally a fog of war.
22:00We don't know whom to believe, but Trump has been making multiple statements over the last couple of hours.
22:05And the Iranians have actually, if you're to give them some credit, they've been maintaining a consistent line of no
22:11talks.
22:12And they've even gone so far as to mock President Trump, the military spokesperson of Iran's, you know, literally trolled
22:21President Trump.
22:22So, the Iranians have denied any such talks.
22:24They are holding fast on their position.
22:26But Trump, I would think, is buying time, Gaurav.
22:30It's a tactical pause.
22:32And as Sushant said, they are planning something big.
22:36There are boots on the ground.
22:37We've been discussing over the last couple of days how the 82nd Airborne has been put on alert on Stand
22:432.
22:43There are amphibious ready groups, two of them, one in the Indian Ocean, one in the Pacific, that are heading
22:49towards the Persian Gulf.
22:50So, possibly, there is some military plan that's being put into place for which the United States, Israel, need time
22:57to build up those forces before they can get Iran to force open the Strait of Hormuz.
23:02Because that is literally the nub of the problem, Gaurav.
23:05It is the Strait of Hormuz.
23:07It's not so much about Iran's missiles and ballistic missiles and rocket forces.
23:11It is Iran's ability to shut the Strait of Hormuz, which has riled the United States.
23:17And they are trying to, you know, match it with a counter move, which could possibly be Marines on the
23:22ground, either on the UAE side or on the islands, capturing islands.
23:27And Iran has warned against that possibility.
23:29So, it clearly seems to be a tactical pause to buy time for a major military escalation.
23:35James Borden, is that also your assessment?
23:37This is a tactical pause?
23:39Because Donald Trump claims he sees a serious chance at a deal, but no guarantees.
23:44Wasn't Iran offering all that it's offering right now, even on the 27th of February, in those Oman-mediated talks?
23:52No nukes, open to IAEA inspection, retaining only the material that's required for nuclear energy and not nuclear bombs.
24:00So, what changed after 24 days of intense bombing?
24:0624 days of intense bombing.
24:08I definitely agree that there's a military aspect to this.
24:12I believe that the U.S. military probably told Donald Trump,
24:16hey, we don't have the munitions and the capacity in the region to go after all of these targets,
24:23because it's not just the targets, but also the defensive or offensive weapons that Iran would have to throw against
24:31Persian Gulf
24:32or even extra Gulf oil refineries and targets outside.
24:37So, I think that there was a lot of panic over the logistics and supply chain.
24:44We have been bombing them very heavily, very intensively, and I've been watching a very curious pattern over the last
24:51few days.
24:52I check in on a lot of social media and a lot of other updates,
24:55and I've been noticing an increase in the numbers of reports of Israeli strikes, Israeli strikes, Israeli strikes,
25:02and a very keen decrease in the number of American-led strikes.
25:08And so, I think this reflects a little bit of that initial fear and panic that the United States is
25:16going to run out of JDAMs and cruise missiles and other equipment.
25:21And I think that we are probably cycling new destroyers and new frigates also into the Persian Gulf region,
25:29which already have these munitions loaded onto them, and sending those that are empty out back to where they can
25:36be rearmed and be reset.
25:38So, you know, in so many ways, you know, here in America, we have something called the grab bag.
25:44It's a little gift bag that some retailers give where they put in little toys and trinkets, and you can
25:50take it for free.
25:51And I think that Donald Trump here is taking and using this as a strategic grab bag.
25:57You know, you've got a little bit of getting the market settled down.
26:00You've got some breathing room for possible diplomacy while the military needs to step in and get these munitions in
26:08place.
26:08And if I were the Iranians, I would not be trusting of this boss, because every time Trump has announced
26:14negotiations with Iran, a week later or two weeks later, we're bombing them.
26:20So, I think the Iranians would be very well understood if they were like, yeah, we're not doing any negotiations
26:28because the United States is not reliable.
26:31Well, that's exactly what they said immediately after the 27th of February, because negotiations were on, and then suddenly America
26:39went and bombed them, despite Oman's foreign minister saying Iran had agreed to everything of words to that effect.
26:45But Michael, Malroy, just wear your U.S. Marine beret once again.
26:51Once you were to wear your green beret once again, you're reading, would it be disastrous to put boots on
26:57ground the way you have two marine expeditionary units, ex-Okinawa and ex-San Diego, moving towards the Persian Gulf,
27:04trying to take control of Kargah Island?
27:07Will Iran actually draw them in and then lead to a bigger disaster?
27:11Is this a tactical pause before that military operation were to be undertaken?
27:18Well, it may be a tactical pause while we wait for both the 31st and 11th Marine Expeditionary Unit to
27:24get there.
27:25But it doesn't mean that it's a good idea to insert them in this.
27:27Obviously, as you mentioned, I was a Marine, so I have a lot of faith in their ability to carry
27:31out whatever orders are given.
27:33And they will take these islands if given those orders.
27:35But the question is, to what purpose?
27:38If they take this, yes, it's a significant escalation.
27:42If you take Kargah Island, for example, it's only 20 miles off the shore of mainland Iran and well within
27:48most of their weapon system ranges.
27:50So they could take it, certainly secure it, and then sit there and try to figure out how to defend
27:56themselves almost nonstop.
27:58And Iran might not be willing to open the straits just because we took it.
28:01So then the question will be, do we withdraw?
28:04Do we withdraw under fire?
28:05Is that a strategic failure?
28:07And again, what is the purpose?
28:09So I think that is something that we should look at.
28:12Just because we can doesn't mean we should.
28:15If it doesn't advance our strategic interests, then we should not do it.
28:18And we don't know exactly if that's why they're on route.
28:22Perhaps there's some kind of leverage with the threat that we could use it.
28:25But it's also important to point out that the MU itself, the Marine Expeditionary Unit, is, we keep saying, a
28:32couple thousand.
28:33But the actual ground component is a battalion landing team.
28:37That's 600 Marines for each MU.
28:40600 Marines, right?
28:42So we shouldn't overstate the idea that we're inserting major ground operations into this conflict.
28:49And essentially, it is that.
28:50Now, the 82nd Airborne, as I already mentioned, is much bigger, but we'll have to see, like, what would be
28:55the task and purpose for the 82nd Airborne?
29:00Iran, unlike Iraq, is four times the size and is mountainous.
29:06And the idea that we would go in there with a major ground component, I think, is politically completely untenable.
29:12I don't think Congress would pay for that at all.
29:14And, of course, we would see it mobilizing if that was the case.
29:16So, perhaps a long-winded way of saying, yes, the Marines can do a lot when they get there.
29:22But the question is, does it advance strategic interests of the United States?
29:27But how does one keep the sea lanes of communication open, especially the state of Hormuz?
29:31Dr. Friedman, does the Iranian threat to Israel remain even today, on day 24?
29:39Will it remain on day 25 compared to day 1?
29:42Because when I was interviewing Ambassador John Bolton, former US NSA, last week, he said a wounded regime in Iran
29:50would be even more dangerous.
29:52So, does a wounded regime in Iran remain in power, posing a bigger threat to Israel now?
29:59First of all, we don't yet know what would be the regime in Iran after the war.
30:03And we hope, and I think the rest of the world should hope, for a change of the regime.
30:11We have to recall that in the beginning, the United States and Israel did not declare that the purpose of
30:18this war is to change the regime.
30:20Because we understand that it's really hard to get this goal and to force a change in regime by airstrike
30:31all year long.
30:32And therefore, the idea is to enable the Iranian people to change the regime and to rebuild against this evil
30:41regime.
30:42Hopefully, it also will collapse after the war, but the war has done tremendous for this purpose, because we have
30:51to remember that the leadership of this regime has been cut off.
30:56In the first day of the war, Israel managed to hit approximately 40 leaders.
31:02And along the war, even though they were aware of the purpose of the Israel Air Force, to eliminate them,
31:11Israel managed to eliminate seniors like Larry Janine and others.
31:16And hopefully, there will be more.
31:18And then, when the war will end, I think the regime will be much weaker.
31:24He actually already suffered tremendous casualties, not only in men's...
31:31If there was a tactical pause in operations, Dr. Friedman, permit me a question, sir.
31:37Is Israel safer on day 24 compared to day 1?
31:41What more have you been able to achieve beyond the 12-day war if the threat still remains, sir?
31:46Yes, there's decapitation, but Iran continues to strike back, including at Demona, which wasn't struck earlier.
31:53That's true. Iranians still have some capabilities, and I'm not sure that all these capabilities will eliminate in the end
32:00of the war.
32:00Maybe we have to go to another operation if Trump doesn't get to a great deal, and deals that will
32:08set the region to a different situation,
32:11where the Iran doesn't treat Nisra Israel in its Gulf allies, or better to say, ex-allies and neighbors.
32:20But we have to see what happened on the ground, and I think after the war, things will be much
32:28more clear,
32:29because currently, we don't really have the full picture of what's been achieved along the purposes and targets we put
32:40on the table before we started the war.
32:42And I hope that when the war ends, we'll be able to demolish the rest of the street,
32:48because Israel cannot go through a long years of street from a state that declared it wants to destroy.
32:58But aren't these very conflicting signals that are emerging, Sushant Sarin?
33:02On a day, President Trump says that talks are happening, positive environment, there may be a deal, it will bring
33:09long-lasting peace.
33:10The same day, Israel says it's carried out the fiercest bombing in the heart of Tehran, and there is no
33:15clarity what happens the day after.
33:18No, look, I think the attacks that Israel is carrying out are going to be different from whatever negotiations, if
33:27at all any negotiations are going on.
33:29And I will not take, I'll take Iranian denials or state media denials with a pinch of salt,
33:35because it's entirely possible that if these negotiations are taking place, they are taking, the Iranian media is not in
33:42the loop,
33:42or most of the people who are commenting on a possible dialogue are not in the loop.
33:48So that is possible.
33:50But I think there is also the possibility that, as everybody else is suggesting, that this is a tactical pause.
33:57But if you're going to be putting boots on the ground, even if it's a couple of thousand Marines on
34:02one or two or three islands,
34:04for example, the Khark Island, you're going to be taking over Iran's oil facilities.
34:08How does that, how does that help in the sense that Iran would then feel entitled to attack the oil
34:16facilities of United States Arab allies?
34:19What does that do to the security?
34:22Second, if you're going to be taking over the state of Hormuz by putting in a couple of thousand Marines,
34:28how does that, how does that, you know, open up the states of Hormuz given that, you know, the traffic
34:35in that area can be attacked by launching drones which are not entirely traceable?
34:40One undersea drone, just the thought of putting landmines and Iran is talking about putting landmines there.
34:48Exactly.
34:49So that does not open up the state of Hormuz until and unless you've entered into some kind of a
34:56deal with the powers that be in Iran.
35:00And the powers that be in Iran have changed their attitude on the entire security architecture in the region.
35:09But, you know, that is anybody's guess.
35:12Okay.
35:12James Borden, has any, have any of these war aims been met?
35:17You know, weakening the regime.
35:20Yes, regime may be weakened, but the command and control structure still remains.
35:24Their ability to strike back remains.
35:25Is Israel safer?
35:26Are Gulf countries safer?
35:28What aims have been achieved in 24 days of intense bombing, sir?
35:33That is definitely to be seen.
35:35And I think it will become much clearer once we are able to get to a post-conflict situation.
35:41You know, during this period of time, it is very hard to see how each little step is contributing to
35:48the overall effect.
35:49But if you look all throughout military history, you can see how even when the United States was advancing against
35:56Japan,
35:56even getting onto Okinawa, the Japanese were still fighting back and very tenaciously.
36:04In fact, they stepped up their attacks to the kamikazes.
36:06And so, you know, ultimately, though, we know how the story ended, that Japan was defeated.
36:13So each of these little steps...
36:14That was after Hiroshima and Nagasaki were nuked.
36:17God forbid something like that should happen now.
36:20Right.
36:20But my point is, you know, we need to see a continued elimination of little bits and pieces.
36:26And eventually that will tear at the hole.
36:30Imagine a Jenga tower that you actually want to bring down.
36:33You know, you push out a little piece here, a little piece there, and eventually you reach that one pivotal
36:39piece that causes the whole thing to collapse.
36:41And I think that's what the United States is after, because it is, you know, the largest nation in the
36:47region.
36:47And it's got a dual-track government.
36:50It's got the Paz Naran, and it's got the secular government.
36:53It's got the IRGC, and it's got the religious authority.
36:57And so you're eliminating all of these little pieces and also taking out key economics.
37:03Now, I'm sure that the United States would love to put Marines on Khark Island and these other oil facilities,
37:09because that enables a better, more peaceful transition period and a future Iranian government to be set up and to
37:18have some chance of economic life.
37:21But at what cost, if I may, let me just bring in Sandeep, and I want to show the Strait
37:24of Hormuz,
37:25and I want to show the location of Khark Island.
37:26Sandeep, that's 400 kilometers deep inside.
37:30So, the United States would have to control the mouth of the Strait of Hormuz.
37:35They would have to dominate the higher ground.
37:37They would have to dominate the coastline on either side, then go 400 kilometers deep,
37:41and then take control of an island which is well-protected, according to Iran.
37:45Well, Gaurav, you know, that military scenario there, it looks very good on paper,
37:50that you fly in, you capture Khark Island, you capture a couple of those other islands.
37:54The Keshem, yeah.
37:55The Keshem, the greater tomb, lesser tomb.
37:58There are about 30 Iranian islands.
38:00But you know, this kind of an operation, it's something that would make the charge of the light brigade look
38:05like a sensible military operation,
38:08if I could put it that way.
38:09Because, you know, these are all very close to the coast of Iran, and all of them are within missile
38:15range,
38:16within even rocket range of Iranian forces there.
38:19So, without sanitizing this entire northern shoulder of the Persian Gulf, which is entirely Iranian-controlled.
38:26Now, Khark Island is further down, it's almost, as you mentioned, it's nearly 500 kilometers down the end of a
38:31very long and narrow passage,
38:34the Persian Gulf, which is a very shallow sea, it's just about 50 meters, which means that you can't even
38:38operate your strategic submarines there.
38:40Nuclear submarines cannot operate over there.
38:42So, there are a lot of ifs and buts with this kind of an operation.
38:46It is possible to drop marines there, it is possible to land special forces, para-drop airborne troops there,
38:54but to hold that would be, you know, something that is going to be very, very tactically unfeasible, Gaurav.
39:01So, the last one minute I have on this part of the show, the question that's coming in, I want
39:05to just take a yes and no answer or a one-liner from all our guests.
39:10Michael Mulroy, in your reading, did Trump blink or did Iran blink on day 24?
39:18So, it's unclear. If you listen to President Trump, he says that essentially dialogue has started.
39:23If that's the case, then I would say it makes sense for him to withdraw his timeline.
39:29If they are not actually in dialogue, then I would say that President Trump actually blinked.
39:34But more important than that, the United States and Israel has made substantial gains toward their strategic military objectives.
39:43The question now is, can they find a path out of this that doesn't include escalation?
39:49Can they de-escalate? Is there an exit roadmap? We'll talk about that perhaps in our debates in coming days.
39:55Sandeep, who blinked first?
39:57The other side blinked, Gaurav. I think, you know, like we said, the Iranians haven't blinked yet.
40:01And President Trump hasn't blinked either. As we discussed, he's possibly buying time.
40:07There is a tactical pause. He's calming the markets. The safety valve out there, five days, gives the market time
40:13to recover.
40:14Oil prices time to recover before they mount the next phase of the military operation, which could be something that's
40:21completely out of the box and which could be very worrying.
40:24Escalate to de-escalate is what we've been discussing in the last couple of years.
40:27I have breaking news coming in and this is news that's coming in from the United States of America, where
40:32reports indicate U.S. special envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner are negotiating with the Speaker of the Iranian Parliament,
40:43Ghalibaf.
40:44Reports further say that there are several countries that are trying to convene a meeting and this meeting perhaps may
40:54take place in Islamabad.
40:56So it's in Pakistan that there could be a meeting between Steve Witkoff, Jared Kushner and Ghalibaf and J.D.
41:04Vance could also be a part of this meeting.
41:08That's information that's coming in. Sushant Sareen, very interesting if this meeting takes place in Islamabad between Jared Kushner, Steve
41:16Witkoff, the American side and the Iranian side and J.D. Vance could also join in.
41:24Yeah, so I was in fact, that is why I was raising my finger just to break this news to
41:28you.
41:29But look, the question is on what are going to be the terms of the deal?
41:34If it's going to be the same government out there and what is going to be on offer is what
41:40was on offer on 27th February when it was said that Iran was willing to make concessions, which nobody imagined
41:47Iran would ever agree to do.
41:49And yet the Americans went and attacked them, then what is the new thing which Iran will bring to the
41:55table that will satisfy Donald Trump or the Iranians hold the edge right now because of all the, you know,
42:03retaliation they have done.
42:05And essentially, Trump is tackling and he is saying, okay, fine, I can't take it anymore.
42:10And he is dumping it all on Israel and the Arabs and he is leaving, you know, so we don't
42:18have, we'll have to wait and see what exactly are going to be the terms of our deal if at
42:23all these reports are correct and some kind of negotiations are going to take place over the next few days.
42:29Okay, Dr. Friedman, if indeed talks are happening and you indicated this first on our broadcast that talks are happening
42:38with Ghalibov and would the Iranian, whatever remains of leadership, whether it's Basij, whether it's the Revolutionary Guard Corps, whether
42:49it's the regime, the religious part of the regime, will they accept whatever negotiations are happening with the head of
42:58the parliament?
43:00You know, it's really hard to predict now in Iran who is controlling the situation.
43:06I think that the Revolutionary Guard are trying to force themselves against the politicians and we see now that Ghalibov
43:12is trying to take over according to some reports in Israel.
43:16He is the person that he is negotiating with Trump, so we have to see what will happen, if it
43:22will really happen in Islamabad, whether there will be a serious talk or another attempt from Trump's side to buy
43:30more time.
43:30And we have to remember that along the last negotiations, every time Trump negotiated with Iranians, the purpose was to
43:40buy time and to gain more force and to tax them.
43:43So if I would be an Iranian, I would be really hesitating about the real plans of the Iranians, the
43:51Americans regarding the future, because I think the bottom line, Trump is consistent with his demands from the Iranians.
44:00And if he meets his demands, maybe it will be a ceasefire, but I think the other alternatives are still
44:07open.
44:08James Borden, how would you look at this? Talks may happen in Islamabad with the Speaker of the Iranian Parliament
44:16and J.D. Vance may join in.
44:17But as of now, it is Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner carrying out the conversation.
44:23Right. Well, the diplomatic area is a little bit out of my remit.
44:28But I would share my panel colleagues' view that, again, the United States has really hurt its reputation in terms
44:38of negotiations.
44:39And I can only echo the sentiment, again, that entering into negotiations is a 50-50 proposition as to whether
44:49we're getting ready to bomb them again or if we're actually heading towards some real resolution.
44:55So, and I just really want to quickly comment, if I can, on, I don't think Donald Trump blinked.
45:02I think that what happened was he got this great idea.
45:05He tweeted out an idea about 48 hours and the generals came to him and said, we can't do that.
45:10So I think he was pulled back.
45:14Somebody got the leash finally and pulled him back.
45:16But it can look like blinking.
45:19Okay, it shouldn't be seen as blinking.
45:21Sandeep, the point that's being made is conversations with the United States could just be a tactical pause before that
45:31next big strike,
45:32before the marine units come in, though they will take longer than five days.
45:35But it just appears that U.S. credibility may just be at an all-time low when it comes to
45:42dialogue, especially with Iran.
45:44Yeah, absolutely, Gaurav.
45:45You know, and with Iran, there's been a pattern.
45:48Every time there's, Iran goes into, you know, dialogue, they get bombed.
45:52So, you know, I don't blame the Iranian leadership for being very suspicious of this third round, possibly, of talks
45:58that we have seen in just two years.
46:01So, it's very clear that the United States is looking at a military option, escalate to de-escalate, perhaps,
46:08because there is no military breakthrough yet.
46:12No military breakthrough yet.
46:14Sushant Sareen wants to come in 30 seconds.
46:16Mr. Sareen, go on, sir.
46:18Look, you know, if at this point in time, the Americans were to call off their operations,
46:24just imagine what the message goes on the Islamic street or the radical Islamic street.
46:31It will be that the United States has been defeated.
46:35It is a gone case.
46:38No longer you need to be afraid of the United States.
46:41It can be taken on and it will shake up the Middle East like nothing you have seen before.
46:48It will destabilize the Gulf Kingdoms and the Gulf States.
46:54It will unleash the kind of terrorism that we haven't seen.
46:58Unless this is a regime change in Iran, within the regime, and substantial comes out,
47:06the general perception around the Islamic world is going to be that Iran has defeated the United States of America.
47:13The Americans will not be able to lift this down.
47:17We'll track that story very closely.
47:19I want to thank all my guests.
47:20Now, whether there is this tactical pause leads to a ceasefire, lasting peace in this region,
47:28it's a reality, or just waiting to regroup, rearm, and then relaunch, that remains to be seen.
47:35But as far as India is concerned, it does matter a lot.
47:38It's very significant because our energy imports come right from this trait of hormones.
47:44And this was the highlight of Prime Minister Narendra Modi's assurance to the nation from Lok Sabha in his address
47:50this afternoon.
47:51He spoke on the need to end the war at the earliest.
47:54He stressed disruptions at the Strait of Hormuz are unacceptable.
47:58He also spoke of contingencies and efforts that India was making,
48:03whether it comes to gas, oil, or even fertilizers.
48:37Listen in.
48:37asserted that India's energy supplies remain secure, even as the state of Hormuz, a route
48:43that carries nearly 50% of countries' oil imports, remains closed.
48:49Prime Minister assured that LPG supply remains a priority and farmers will get adequate fertilizers
48:55ahead of the kharif season.
48:59Bharat Sarkar Gulf and Raspars' shipping routes have made a great view of our government.
49:08Our intention is that the oil, gas, fertilizer,
49:14is the best place to reach the country in the country.
49:29India's old surging dialogue and diplomacy stressing that disruptions to key roads like
49:34Hormuz are unacceptable.
50:09The Congress demanded a full discussion on West Asia crisis.
50:25Our Army Party, Sanjay Singh, urged the government to heed opposition advice.
50:47The impact of the West Asia war is already visible.
50:52LPG prices have been hiked once, air fares are up, shortage of cooking gas is reported across India,
50:59edible oil prices are climbing and price of freeman patrol has been hiked.
51:05The government says there is no need to panic, but with global tension high, the challenge is to keep India
51:12insulated.
51:13Bureau Report, India Today.
51:29Many thanks for watching.
51:31News and updates continue on India Today.
51:33Stay with us.
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