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This episode of 5 Live focusses on the two-week ceasefire announced between the United States and Iran.
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00:01A pause in a fast-escalating war, brokered under pressure, announced at the 11th hour.
00:09A two-week ceasefire between United States and Iran, unveiled by Donald Trump, has momentarily halted hostilities.
00:18Washington is calling it strategic win. Tehran is projecting it as a forced US climb down.
00:25And then there are important questions like, who brokered the deal?
00:30Will this pause, the fourth since this conflict started, actually last?
00:36What are the possibilities? And importantly, why did Trump blink when he was so determined to wipe out an entire
00:44civilization?
00:45We will uncover all of that on the program today. Hello and welcome. I'm Sonal Mehrotra Kapoor.
00:50This is Five Live. Let's start with the top 10 war updates.
00:57A last-minute breakthrough. Donald Trump announces a two-week ceasefire with Iran, just 90 minutes before the strike deadline.
01:04Both sides claim victory. That means maybe a good negotiation.
01:09But the reality is that there is a fragile pause.
01:13And after weeks of high-intensity conflict, we still don't know which way it will go.
01:19Washington makes it clear. The ceasefire kicks in only after the Strait of Hormuz is fully reopened, the world's most
01:27critical oil route, now the central condition, making maritime access the key trigger for peace.
01:36Tehran, meanwhile, rolls out a sweeping 10-point proposal, seeking sanctions relief, nuclear recognition and U.S. troop withdrawal.
01:46Iran is projecting strength, framing the ceasefire as a result of its strategic pressure on Washington.
01:54And while diplomatic momentum shifting to Islamabad, where Shahbaz Sharif indicating talks could begin as early as this Friday, that's
02:03actually tomorrow, Pakistan emerges as the key intermediary between the two sides.
02:09But timelines and outcomes, that remains uncertain.
02:15Israel, meanwhile, signals that the ceasefire does not exist in Lebanon, highlighting cracks in the agreement.
02:23This raises the risk of parallel flashpoints, even as U.S. and Iran step back from direct confrontation.
02:33Ours after the announcement, Bahrain sounds missile sirens, underscoring how volatile the ground situation remains.
02:40The ceasefire may be declared, but tensions across the Gulf are far from over.
02:47China, meanwhile, is believed to have played a key behind-the-scenes role, with even Washington acknowledging Beijing's influence in
02:56bringing Iran to the negotiating table.
03:00What was China's hand? We'll decode for you on the programme today.
03:05Global crude prices, meanwhile, plunge nearly 20% as fears ease over supply disruption.
03:13The ceasefire has instantly cooled the war premium, but markets remain sensitive to any instability around hormones.
03:22India welcomes the ceasefire, urging sustained dialogue and stability.
03:27New Delhi's focus remains clear.
03:29Secure energy flows, uninterrupted trade routes through the Strait of Hormuz.
03:35And finally, in a key regional development, Iraq resumes civil air traffic after the pause in hostility.
03:43It's early signs of de-escalation, but where the normalcy really holds depends entirely on how these ceasefire negotiations carry
03:53on.
03:56Those were the top 10 war headlines.
03:58Let's quickly tell you what else is making news across the country.
04:02We start with West Bengal, where Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee has filed a nomination for the Bhavani Pur Assembly constituency.
04:09With her nomination, the stage is now set for a closely watched electoral contest in the seat that she has
04:16represented in the past.
04:17BJP has also pitted Bengal LOP, Suvendu Adhikari, against Mamata Banerjee on that very seat.
04:25Meanwhile, no end to EC versus TMC.
04:28Tensions between the Election Commission and the Trinamool Congress have escalated after a meeting turned controversial.
04:34TMC claims that the CEC, Ganesh Kumar, told its delegation to get lost when they questioned official transfers and fair
04:43polls.
04:44EC sources also indicating, however, that the CEC simply gave a straight talk as TMC leaders were being disruptive.
04:56After the BJP backlash, Malik Harjun Kharge has apologized for his recent remarks targeting Gujaratis.
05:03He had said in his remarks and also come out to say now that they were deliberately misinterpreted and that
05:10he never intended to hurt sentiments.
05:13Kharge, during a rally in Keralam, had said that the people in Keralam were educated and clever and couldn't be
05:19misled, unlike those who were illiterate in Gujarat and other places.
05:27Meanwhile, in Bihar, Bihar is preparing for a new political chapter.
05:31As Nathish Kumar is set to make his official entry into Rajasabha, he will take oath on the 10th of
05:37April.
05:37Bihar's newly elected Rajasabha MPs, including the BJP National President Nitin Nabeen and Savesh Kumar, will take their oaths on
05:45the 16th of April during the special session of the Parliament.
05:49Nathish Kumar's oath in Rajasabha will pave the way for Bihar's new Chief Minister, most likely to be from the
05:57BJP.
06:00And then, many TVK supporters were injured after their two-wheeler collided while following Vijay's convoy on the Thutukuri Highway.
06:09The TVK chief has arrived from Chennai for a rally, with over 100 volunteers trailing his campaign convoy.
06:23All right, getting kick-started on the bulletin with some news updates coming in.
06:28This is about Trump's big claims, hours after his announcing the truce.
06:34We are now getting to know that the United States will work closely with Iran, is what Donald Trump has
06:39said,
06:40which we have determined has gone through what will be a very productive regime change.
06:47Trump has gone ahead to speak on Truth Social, and we'll put that out on the screen for you as
06:52well to see.
06:53He says there will be no enrichment of uranium, and that the United States will, working with Iran,
07:01dig and remove all the deeply buried B-2 bombers, the nuclear dust there.
07:09Also, Trump goes ahead to say in that post that it is now, and has been under very, sort of,
07:15exacting satellite surveillance.
07:17He says, Space Force, we are and will be talking tariff sanctions relief with Iran.
07:23Many of the 15 points have already been agreed to.
07:30All right, there's something about this 5 o'clock timing.
07:32Every day we come at 5 o'clock, there's a new statement that comes in from Donald Trump.
07:37Let's try and decipher this one.
07:38Gaurav Sawant is here with me.
07:40Gaurav, it's something about 5 o'clock India time, right?
07:42A new post comes in every day.
07:45But let's start.
07:46As always, there are several pieces to be decoded in his statement.
07:49We'll start with the first one, where he's saying United States will work closely with Iran,
07:54which we have determined has gone through what will be a very productive regime change.
08:01Will be a productive regime, Jim?
08:02I thought he said he's already achieved it.
08:04So, you know, it's the most difficult task in the world to decipher what Donald Trump is thinking,
08:09what's he saying, what's he writing.
08:12Whoever's tried it has failed so far.
08:15But just look at what's happening.
08:17Has there been a regime change?
08:18He says yes, but the same regime is in power.
08:21He says America has won.
08:23Iran says Iran has won.
08:24The four big things that America set out to do on the 28th of February,
08:30when they started bombing Iran, have they been able to achieve anything?
08:34And the most important aspect, you know, they wanted to ensure that Iran does not remain a military power,
08:40does not remain a power that can project its power beyond its borders.
08:43Today, Iran is more powerful than it was on the 28th of February,
08:47when it showed that it can choke the Strait of Hormuz and it can choke the Bab al-Mandab.
08:52So it can hold two global choke points.
08:55And this just shows how vast Iran's power is.
08:59And Iran is gloating.
09:00Iran is telling the world,
09:01GCC countries who are banking on America to protect them now feel rather humiliated
09:07because they cannot guarantee, they cannot bank on American guarantees for protection.
09:11And what is Donald Trump looking at?
09:13Is he looking at making money out of the Strait of Hormuz with Iran?
09:17Because Iran is very clear that they control the Strait of Hormuz and they want $2 million per ship.
09:23So if 100 ships cross, it's $200 million for Iran.
09:28If 150 ships cross, that's $300 million per day for Iran.
09:33So that's the kind of money that Iran will be making, which will be used for rebuilding Iran.
09:38Trump probably wants a share of it, Sonal.
09:40It's a very bizarre thing that's happening right now.
09:43I think my only takeaway is that at least he doesn't sound absolutely mad about something
09:49or frustrated or no expletives have been used just yet.
09:53So it seems like things have calmed down, at least in Donald Trump's language there,
09:57perhaps giving us a sense of what lies ahead.
09:59But Gaurav, stay back with us because we'll come back to you for more on this.
10:02Let's move on now to try and understand what exactly is happening at the moment.
10:07We now have a pause, yet another pause, as many would say.
10:10The question on everybody's mind is, will it last?
10:13Let's start with the possibilities.
10:16Three very distinct possibilities of endgames of this two-week ceasefire.
10:21Now, if negotiations hold, Iran's 10-point proposal could become the backbone of a long-term agreement.
10:28That would mean that the state of Hormuz fully opens up,
10:32a structured U.S.-Iran peace framework takes shape,
10:35and also the wider region begins to sort of cool down after weeks of escalation.
10:40Talks could drag without closure.
10:43That's the other possibility we're looking at.
10:45Iran's nuclear program remains the central sticking point.
10:50Trust deficit there, that sort of persists,
10:52and the ceasefire simply gets extended without a concrete deal.
10:56In other words, no war, but no peace either.
11:01Now, third possibility.
11:02If Iran fails to meet the key conditions, especially on Hormuz,
11:07or if violations are reported, the pause could collapse.
11:11That would mean U.S. and Israel strikes resume,
11:14and the West Asia slips, you know, right back into a full-scale escalation.
11:20Now, what are the non-negotiables holding this ceasefire together?
11:27Because it'll all boil down to that, remember.
11:30Three clear conditions that we've taken out for you.
11:34First, the complete reopening of the state of Hormuz.
11:38Second, the pause on U.S. offensive operations.
11:43And third, Iran halting the missile attacks across the region.
11:47Any breach here, and the entire agreement,
11:51or the talks which seem to have started,
11:53risks of falling apart.
11:56And then, finally, the thing we need to understand here.
12:00What exactly is Iran putting on the table?
12:04That 10-point proposal that we spoke about earlier.
12:07What's that about?
12:08Tehran's 10-point proposal is expansive,
12:11ranging from non-aggression guarantees and continued control over Hormuz
12:17to lifting of sanctions, recognition of its uranium enrichment programme,
12:21withdrawal of U.S. forces and even compensation for war damages.
12:26It also calls for an end to Israeli strats,
12:28the strikes that have happened in Lebanon
12:30and also release of frozen Iranian assets.
12:34So, the big picture as we look at it tonight,
12:38this ceasefire is not really a conclusion.
12:41It's a high-stakes negotiation window that has opened up.
12:46What happens next?
12:47Anybody's guess.
13:06As the clock ticked down and the world held its breath,
13:09fearing massive escalation.
13:15What came instead was a dramatic U-turn.
13:19From the brink of a wider wall,
13:22Washington hit pause.
13:25U.S. President Donald Trump announcing a two-week ceasefire with Iran,
13:31halting strikes, opening a narrow window for diplomacy.
13:34Calling it a great day for world peace,
13:38Trump pitched the pause as the beginning of a possible reset.
13:43Even a golden age for the Middle East.
13:47But beneath the optimism, the messaging war is very much alive.
13:54Trump claims total and complete victory,
13:57insisting a 15-point deal is nearly sealed.
14:00With Iran's nuclear program on the table and the most ticking points resolved.
14:09What the president did is he basically issued an ultimatum to the Iranians.
14:13He said, open up the straits,
14:14stop trying to hold the world's economy hostage,
14:17and we'll engage in a ceasefire.
14:20And that's exactly the agreement that we came to last night.
14:22The Iranians have agreed to open up the straits.
14:24The United States has agreed to stop attacking.
14:26And that, not just the United States, but also our allies,
14:30have agreed to stop attacking.
14:31And that is the basis of this fragile truce that we have,
14:35which is now, you know, 8 to 12 hours old.
14:38The ceasefire, he says, is double-sided,
14:42but hinges on one critical condition.
14:46Tehran must reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
14:50Tehran, however, is telling a very different story.
14:57Iran claims it was Washington that blinked first,
15:00adding that U.S. had been pleading to halt the war,
15:03a call it resisted until its objectives were met.
15:14On the streets of Tehran, scenes of celebration erupted,
15:18flags waving, crowds cheering,
15:21a moment of relief after weeks of conflict.
15:24But the leadership's message is clear.
15:28This is not peace.
15:35Iran says the ceasefire is temporary, conditional,
15:39and most importantly, reversible.
15:43Its hands, its wands, remains on the trigger.
15:47Even as talks loom in Islamabad and proposals are exchanged,
15:51the reality is stark.
15:55John Gambrill, Associated Press correspondent,
15:58offers a detailed analysis on why the ceasefire
16:01is a welcome development.
16:03One that raises several critical questions at this stage.
16:10Iran insists that its military is still going to control
16:13access through the Strait,
16:14and we've heard from one diplomat that says
16:16Iran and Oman, whose territorial waters form the Strait,
16:19would still be collecting fees from passing ships.
16:22This is a big departure from where it had been before.
16:25The world largely considers the Strait
16:27an international waterway that should be free for all.
16:31Meanwhile, we're seeing discrepancies from Iran
16:34in its language about the 10 points
16:35it's put forward on ending the war.
16:38In its Farsi language version,
16:39it included that it wanted to continue to enrich uranium.
16:43That's something that U.S. President Donald Trump
16:44has said is a non-starter.
16:46Trump fears that Iran's nuclear program
16:48could allow Tehran to potentially develop a nuclear weapon,
16:51should it choose to do so.
16:54This is not the end of the war.
16:58This could just be a pause between rounds.
17:02Because in West Asia right now,
17:05the guns may be silent,
17:07but the standoff is far from over.
17:15So this is clearly not peace.
17:18But is this the right direction towards peace?
17:21Well, that's the big question.
17:22But also important perhaps to understand,
17:26and I'm not sure about you,
17:27but we clearly kept wondering about this one question.
17:30Why did Donald Trump blink?
17:33After giving those threats of eroding an entire civilization,
17:38the language that he used,
17:40Iran mocking it with memes and videos on the other side,
17:43what made him blink?
17:45The answer lies in a mix of military limits,
17:48economic pressure, and political reality.
17:52And of course, as always,
17:53we broke it down for you point by point.
17:55Let's start.
17:56Despite sustained airstrikes,
17:59the US failed to deliver a knockout blow,
18:01meaning Iranian capabilities remained intact
18:04and the risk of a full-scale ground invasion
18:06was simply too high.
18:08Militarily, costly,
18:10and also strategically very, very uncertain.
18:14Number two on our list,
18:15Tehran's biggest card,
18:17Deir Brahmos,
18:18as Gaurav has called it that on the program for so long,
18:21the Strait of Hormuz,
18:22with threats of choke,
18:23in the world's most critical oil route,
18:26Iran effectively held global energy supply chains hostage,
18:31raising the cost of prolonging the conflict for Washington.
18:36Also, number three,
18:38war isn't cheap.
18:40Estimates suggest about 40 to 60 billion dollars already is spent,
18:44add to that rising fuel prices,
18:45tariff fatigue back home,
18:47and the economic pressure began sort of feeding directly
18:49into political pressure.
18:52Also, remember,
18:54the running operations of 1 to 2 billion per day.
18:59This was becoming an unsustainable burn rate for Washington as well,
19:04and longer the war dragged,
19:06heavier the financial drain,
19:08with no clear strategic payoff.
19:11What were they getting in return?
19:13Nobody knew.
19:14Trump also was facing flack back home.
19:17With midterm elections approaching,
19:19remember,
19:20Trump's approval ratings were slipping to record lows,
19:22never been this low,
19:24even in his first round of presidency,
19:27never been this low.
19:28A prolonged war without clear success
19:30was becoming a political liability,
19:32rather than a show of strength.
19:34The opposite of what was happening to Netanyahu in Israel,
19:36actually.
19:37And that's not all.
19:38In U.S.,
19:39protests against President Trump had intensified.
19:43Remember,
19:43we brought you the pictures,
19:45the spectacular pictures of that no-kings protest,
19:48social media posts,
19:51critics questioning the necessity of the war,
19:54calling it avoidable,
19:55poorly timed,
19:56public sentiment was shifting
19:58from initial support
20:00to visible fatigue and resistance.
20:03And not only that,
20:05a growing perception
20:06that U.S. was fighting a war
20:08aligned more
20:09with Israel's interest than its own.
20:12They began to hold ground.
20:14We discussed that here on the program as well.
20:16That narrative further
20:17eroded public backing
20:19and sort of complicated
20:20Washington's position altogether.
20:22Also key to all of this,
20:24remember,
20:24multiple deadlines came
20:26and went
20:27with no decisive outcome.
20:30Each extension
20:31sort of chipped away
20:32at credibility,
20:33making it harder
20:34for the administration
20:35to sustain a hardline stance
20:36without any tangible results.
20:38So,
20:39when you connect the dots
20:41of all these pointers
20:42that I've just told you,
20:44nuclear military win,
20:46rising costs,
20:48global energy risks,
20:50and mounting domestic
20:51and global pressure.
20:53The ceasefire begins to look
20:56less like a choice,
20:58more like a compulsion
21:00even for a man
21:01like Donald Trump.
21:04So that's our analysis.
21:06Let's try and get into the brains
21:08of Gaurav Sawat now
21:10to try and see what he feels
21:11about this analysis.
21:13Gaurav, your thoughts?
21:15This was a compulsion
21:16because I remember speaking with you
21:18same time yesterday
21:19and Geeta was also here
21:20and I asked that
21:21I don't see any peace inside.
21:23I'm seeing no signs
21:25that this will actually
21:26lead to a ceasefire.
21:27And there you go,
21:28this man has surprised us again.
21:30He indeed has.
21:31You know,
21:32there is this phrase
21:33about Trump,
21:34you know,
21:35which is called Taco Trump.
21:36Trump always chickens out.
21:37And perhaps this time he did.
21:39He did blink
21:40because after threatening
21:41and look at the kind of language
21:42he was using,
21:43the kind of cuss words
21:44he was using
21:45for a race,
21:46dehumanizing Iran,
21:48saying that
21:48their entire civilization
21:49will die tonight
21:50and then agreeing
21:51to a ceasefire.
21:53But from the beginning
21:54we don't know
21:55why he went into this war
21:56on the 28th of February
21:57when Iran had agreed
21:59to almost everything
22:00and more.
22:01In fact,
22:02Iran today is stronger
22:03than Iran was
22:03on the 28th of February.
22:05Whatever America had done
22:07in the past 48 to 47 years,
22:09Trump has actually undone,
22:11you know,
22:11a lot of it.
22:12And it's such a disaster
22:14as far as American policy
22:15is concerned.
22:16All policy experts
22:18in America
22:18are actually saying
22:19Trump has done
22:20massive damage
22:21to American policy
22:22on Iran.
22:23Iran now emerges stronger,
22:25China emerges stronger,
22:26Russia emerges stronger
22:28and America
22:29appears rather weak.
22:31Point one.
22:31Point two,
22:32global economy
22:33wasn't tailspin
22:34but is Trump
22:35still playing the markets?
22:36Are we going to see
22:37again a change?
22:38Because with Israel,
22:40you're sure that Israel
22:41is protecting
22:41its national interests.
22:43It pounded Iran
22:44to the best of its ability.
22:46It continues to pound
22:47Lebanon
22:48and Israel says
22:50should they be targeted
22:51it will once again
22:54target its adversaries.
22:55So it's hoping,
22:56it's backing Trump's claims.
22:58Now it remains to be seen.
22:59What does this lead to?
23:00Because Iran's perception
23:02of that ceasefire
23:03and America's position
23:04of the ceasefire,
23:05they're very different.
23:06Iran says,
23:07we control state of Hormuz.
23:08America wants to control
23:09that state of Hormuz.
23:10How long will this peace
23:11last?
23:12Which remember,
23:13state of Hormuz was free.
23:14This question had
23:15not even arrived
23:16had he not
23:17made the attack.
23:19It was free
23:19and now look at them
23:21negotiating.
23:21But hold on to that thought
23:23because we have new comments
23:24coming in from Donald Trump.
23:25Let's see what they are
23:25this time around.
23:27Let's quickly put them up
23:28on our screen as well.
23:29Trump now saying
23:30again on Truth Social
23:31that a country supplying
23:32military weapons to Iran
23:34will be immediately tariffed
23:36or on any and all goods
23:40sold to the United States
23:41of America,
23:4250% effective immediately.
23:45There will be no exclusions
23:48or exemptions.
23:50All right.
23:52Let me repeat that
23:53for our viewers to soak it in.
23:55And Gaurav,
23:56you know,
23:56I would love your thoughts
23:57on this one as well.
23:58Trump is saying
23:59not any country,
24:00he says a country supplying.
24:02I don't know
24:03if it's a grammatical error
24:04or it's intentional here.
24:05He says a country supplying
24:07military weapons to Iran
24:08will be immediately tariffed
24:10on any and all goods
24:12sold to United States of America,
24:1450% effective immediately.
24:16There will be no exclusions
24:17or exemptions.
24:19What does this mean?
24:20Who is he targeting?
24:21So on the face of it,
24:23it's Russia.
24:24But behind the scenes,
24:25if Trump really wants to do it,
24:27he will have to go after China
24:29and there's no way
24:30he will go after China
24:31at a time
24:31that he's visiting China
24:32on the 14th of May.
24:35Iran has two best friends.
24:38One is Russia.
24:39The other is China.
24:41Two that have backed it
24:42to the hilt,
24:43including that veto
24:44at the United Nations
24:45Security Council.
24:46And it was China
24:47that was the interlocutor
24:48or the guarantor,
24:50if I may,
24:51the main guarantor
24:52of the security guarantees
24:53that Iran will not
24:54be targeted again.
24:56Pakistan was just the mask.
24:57China was the heft.
24:59Pakistan lacks heft.
25:00China has that heft
25:02to ensure
25:02or at least try and ensure
25:04that Iran will not
25:04be targeted again.
25:06But there are so many
25:07unanswered questions,
25:08especially on the
25:09Strait of Hormuz,
25:10on that 450 kilograms
25:11of enriched uranium,
25:13Iran's nuclear program,
25:15Iran's missile
25:16and drone program.
25:17What happens to all of that?
25:19Will some of these
25:20negotiations that start
25:21tomorrow in Islamabad,
25:22will they address
25:23these issues?
25:24Or, you know,
25:25it's like mowing the grass.
25:27Last year,
25:28you know,
25:292025,
25:30in June,
25:30America and Israel
25:31bombed Iran for 12 days.
25:33This year,
25:33they've done it for 40 days.
25:35Next year,
25:35they'll do it again
25:36or the year after that.
25:37They'll continue
25:38to mow the grass
25:39till the time
25:39they think that the regime
25:40is weakened
25:41and can be overthrown.
25:42Because this is the only way
25:44in their perception
25:45that you can deal
25:46with the threat from Iran.
25:47But is this the way
25:48to negotiate really
25:49the same countries
25:50that he's threatening
25:50are the ones
25:51who are mediating?
25:52So what is he doing now?
25:53Threatening the mediators
25:54to be in their favour?
25:55What exactly is happening here?
25:56And importantly,
25:57what's running
25:58on Donald Trump's mind?
25:59The next story
26:00is an interesting one
26:02because it gives you
26:03an insight into that.
26:05I'm sure you have thought,
26:06I have certainly thought
26:07so many times
26:08about what's going on
26:09in the mind of Donald Trump.
26:10Many have called it
26:12the madman theory.
26:14We looked into it
26:15and there actually
26:16is a theory that exists.
26:18It's called
26:18the Middle East
26:19madman theory.
26:22And we'll try
26:23and tell you
26:23what exactly this is.
26:25This is with no disrespect
26:26to anybody.
26:27This is just to talk
26:29about what has already
26:30been spoken
26:31by psychologists
26:32in the US.
26:33So we are just bringing
26:34out those reports
26:35to you, alright?
26:36At the core,
26:38this doctrine
26:39is about projecting
26:41unpredictability,
26:42keeping the opponent
26:43guessing,
26:44signalling a willingness
26:45to do
26:46and go to extreme lengths
26:47and then forcing
26:48negotiations
26:49without necessary
26:51or necessarily
26:52any commitments
26:53to a full-scale war.
26:55The idea
26:57seems to be simple.
26:58If the adversary
26:59believes that you're
27:01capable of anything,
27:02they are more likely
27:03to concede.
27:04What does this tell you?
27:05That a lot of the stuff
27:07that he's doing
27:07that people in loose terms
27:09would call
27:10madman theory
27:11is actually intentional.
27:13Let's tell you more
27:14about it.
27:14This strategy,
27:16remember,
27:16is not new.
27:17It traces back
27:18to Richard Nixon
27:19during the Cold War
27:20when the US
27:21deliberately cultivated
27:22an image of
27:23irrational escalation
27:24to pressure the Soviet
27:25Union into backing down.
27:27So we decoded
27:29Trump's playbook
27:30in West Asia
27:32reflecting,
27:33is it of the same template?
27:35The results are amazing,
27:36so stay with me, right?
27:37Through sharp,
27:39often shocking rhetoric,
27:40threats of massive
27:41destruction,
27:42expletive-laden
27:43messages,
27:44and deliberately
27:45volatile communication,
27:46Trump has built
27:47an image of a leader
27:48willing to escalate
27:49without a warning.
27:50The signalling
27:51is clear.
27:53Unpredictability
27:54is the strategy.
27:57Alongside rhetoric,
27:58there has been
27:59heavy threat posturing,
28:00warnings targeting
28:02critical infrastructure,
28:03language invoking
28:04total destruction,
28:05and ultimatums
28:06with hard deadlines.
28:08Each message
28:09designed to raise
28:10the stakes
28:11also compress
28:12negotiation timelines.
28:16But
28:16this hasn't
28:18just been talk.
28:19There's been
28:19sort of calibrated
28:20military action as well.
28:22Sort of precision strikes
28:23have followed
28:24on high-value targets,
28:25limited operations
28:26have been designed
28:27to sort of signal
28:28capability as well,
28:29without sort of
28:30triggering a full-scale war
28:32and carefully chosen
28:33targets
28:34that avoid
28:36uncontrolled
28:37escalation.
28:39But at the same time,
28:40here comes the googly,
28:41political signalling
28:42has also been in play.
28:45Remarks hinting
28:46at a regime change,
28:47calls for alternative
28:48leadership,
28:49and also framing
28:50the conflict,
28:51not just military,
28:52but also structural.
28:54So,
28:55the larger picture here,
28:58this is not strategy
28:59of a man
29:02speculated to be
29:03dealing with Alzheimer's,
29:05speculated to be,
29:06you know,
29:06triggered by his own thing,
29:08his mother giving statements
29:09that, you know,
29:11he's got some mental condition,
29:12none of that.
29:13This is controlled chaos,
29:16deliberate unpredictability,
29:17and pressure
29:18without full commitment.
29:23So how do
29:24psychologists,
29:25people who
29:26study these kind of people
29:28or even world leaders
29:29talk about it, right?
29:31Now,
29:31this is what
29:32one of them actually said
29:33and we've got a quote
29:34for you over there.
29:35This is a professor
29:36from the
29:37Ikato University
29:38over there.
29:38He says,
29:39Trump may be putting
29:40the madman theory
29:41into practice,
29:43but such actions
29:44would technically
29:45amount to war crimes.
29:48He believes
29:49that there is a deeper
29:50strategy
29:51at play.
29:52The madman theory,
29:54according to the professor,
29:56is about projecting
29:57irrational,
29:58unpredictable,
29:59volatile behavior
30:01to gain advantage.
30:04So,
30:05that's something new
30:06you learned today.
30:08The Trump mind.
30:10Perhaps
30:11not as irrational
30:13as we think,
30:14perhaps
30:15all by design.
30:18Welcome back
30:19here with 5 Live.
30:20in minutes from now,
30:21we will be cutting across
30:22to the board secretary
30:24there,
30:25Hexet,
30:25and we will be listening
30:26into him.
30:27But before that,
30:27we've still got
30:28lots of news for you.
30:29Let's start with
30:30what exactly happened.
30:33Who sealed
30:34that deal
30:35for ceasefire?
30:37Was it headline diplomacy
30:38or just quiet
30:39back-channel pressure?
30:41The spotlight
30:42may be on Donald Trump,
30:43as it perhaps always is
30:45in this case,
30:45but the real story
30:46appears far more leered.
30:48And it's not just Pakistan,
30:50it's got China
30:51right at the center
30:52of it.
30:53Now,
30:54sources indicate
30:54that Xi Jinping's
30:55Beijing moved
30:57decisively behind the scenes.
30:59Foreign Minister
31:00Wang Yi
31:00is believed
31:01to have held
31:02over two dozen calls
31:04across key capitals
31:06in Iran,
31:07Israel,
31:08Russia,
31:09and also Gulf.
31:11Our people
31:12killing Americans,
31:13lying and blackmailing
31:15their way
31:15toward a nuclear weapon,
31:17so they thought.
31:18No longer.
31:20Not on our watch.
31:22Other presidents
31:23marked time
31:24and kicked the can
31:25down the road.
31:26President Trump
31:27made history.
31:29From the strike
31:30that took out
31:31Qasem Soleimani,
31:33to tearing up
31:34the disastrous
31:34Obama-Iran deal,
31:36to the precision campaign
31:38that obliterated
31:39Iran's nuclear sites
31:40in Operation Midnight Hammer,
31:41to the decisive
31:42military victory
31:44we just achieved
31:44in Operation Epic Fury,
31:47no other president
31:48has shown the courage
31:49and resolve
31:51of this
31:51commander-in-chief.
31:53President Trump
31:54forged this moment.
31:56Iran begged
31:57for this ceasefire,
31:58and we all
31:59know it.
32:01As a president
32:02truth this morning,
32:02a big day
32:03for world peace.
32:05Iran wants it
32:07to happen.
32:08They've had enough.
32:11Operation Epic Fury
32:12was a historic
32:14and overwhelming
32:15victory
32:16on the battlefield.
32:17A capital
32:19V
32:19military victory.
32:22By any measure,
32:23Epic Fury decimated
32:25Iran's military
32:26and rendered it
32:27combat ineffective
32:28for years to come.
32:31You see,
32:31in less than 40 days,
32:34one of our
32:35combatant commands,
32:36Central Command,
32:37CENTCOM,
32:38using less than
32:3910% of America's
32:40total combat power,
32:42dismantled one of
32:44the world's
32:44largest militaries.
32:45The world's leading
32:46state sponsor
32:47of terrorism
32:48proved utterly
32:49incapable
32:50of defending
32:51itself,
32:52its people,
32:53or its territory.
32:55We untied
32:56just a fraction
32:57of our strength,
32:58and Iran suffered
32:59a devastating
33:01military defeat.
33:03Together with
33:04our Israeli partners,
33:05America's military
33:06achieved every
33:08single objective,
33:09on plan,
33:10on schedule,
33:11exactly as laid out
33:13from day one.
33:15Iran's Navy
33:16is at the bottom
33:17of the sea.
33:18Whether it's
33:18the Soleimani class,
33:20their frigate class,
33:21their prized
33:22drone aircraft
33:23carriers,
33:24submarines,
33:26mine layers,
33:26sunk.
33:28Iran's air force
33:29has been wiped out.
33:31Iran no longer
33:32has an air defense,
33:34any sort of a
33:34comprehensive air
33:35defense system.
33:36We own
33:37their skies.
33:39Their missile program
33:40is functionally
33:41destroyed.
33:42Launchers,
33:43production facilities,
33:44and existing stockpiles
33:45depleted and decimated.
33:48And almost
33:49completely ineffective,
33:50Iran shot hundreds
33:51and hundreds
33:52of missiles
33:53and one-way attack drones
33:55at our aircraft carrier.
33:56They were
33:57obsessed with it,
33:58and they never
33:59got even close.
34:01Every single one
34:02of those shots
34:03easily shot down
34:04miles and miles
34:05away from
34:06the Abe Lincoln.
34:07They were
34:08blowing ammo
34:09into fantasy land.
34:12Contrast that
34:13with most significantly,
34:15in last night's
34:17wave of more than
34:17800 strikes,
34:19we finished
34:20completely destroying
34:22Iran's defense
34:23industrial base,
34:25a core pillar
34:26of our mission
34:27objective.
34:28What little
34:29they have left
34:30buried in bunkers
34:31is all they
34:31will have.
34:34They can still
34:35shoot,
34:35we know that.
34:36Their command
34:37and control
34:37is so decimated
34:38they can't really
34:38talk and coordinate,
34:40so they still may
34:40shoot here and there,
34:42but that would be
34:42very, very unwise.
34:45But they can no longer
34:47build missiles,
34:48build rockets,
34:49build launchers,
34:50or build UAVs.
34:52Their factories
34:52have been raised
34:53to the ground,
34:55set back
34:56in historic fashion.
34:59You see,
35:00had Iran refused
35:01our terms,
35:02the next targets
35:03would have been
35:03their power plants,
35:05their bridges,
35:06and oil and energy
35:08infrastructure.
35:09Targets
35:09they could not
35:10defend
35:10and could not
35:12realistically rebuild.
35:13It would have
35:14taken them decades,
35:15and we were locked
35:16and loaded.
35:18They couldn't defend
35:19against it.
35:20President Trump
35:21had the power
35:22to cripple Iran's
35:23entire economy
35:24in minutes.
35:26But he chose mercy.
35:29He spared those targets
35:31because Iran
35:31accepted the ceasefire
35:33under overwhelming
35:34pressure.
35:36The new Iranian regime
35:38understood that a deal
35:39was far better
35:40than the fate
35:41that awaited them.
35:43This new regime
35:44just happened to look
35:45at what happened
35:46to their predecessors.
35:47Their top leadership
35:49was systematically
35:51eliminated.
35:51The previous Iranian
35:54Supreme Leader,
35:55dead.
35:56The Supreme National
35:58Security Council
35:59Secretary,
36:00dead.
36:01The Supreme Leader
36:02Office Advisor,
36:03dead.
36:04The Supreme Leader
36:06Military Office
36:06Chief,
36:08dead.
36:09The Defense Minister,
36:11no longer with us.
36:12The IRGC Commander,
36:15dead.
36:16The Armed Forces
36:17General Staff Commander,
36:18dead.
36:19The Intelligence Minister,
36:21dead.
36:22The IRGC Navy Commander,
36:25no longer here.
36:26The IRGC Intel Chief,
36:29dead.
36:30I skipped over a bunch
36:32and I could go on
36:33and on and on
36:35to include the new
36:36so-called new Supreme Leader,
36:38wounded and disfigured.
36:40This new regime
36:42was out of options
36:43and out of time,
36:44so they cut a deal.
36:46They know this agreement
36:47means that they will never,
36:49ever possess
36:50a nuclear weapon.
36:52Under the terms,
36:54any nuclear material
36:55they should have
36:56will be removed.
36:59Any material,
37:00excuse me,
37:00they should not have
37:01will be removed.
37:02Right now,
37:03their dust is deeply buried
37:05and watched 24-7 overhead.
37:07The President has been clear
37:08from the beginning,
37:09there will be
37:10no Iranian nuclear weapons.
37:12Period.
37:14Full stop.
37:15Other Presidents said it.
37:17President Trump did it.
37:20Operation Epic Fury.
37:22Less than six weeks,
37:23clear mission,
37:25decisive action,
37:26overwhelming fire,
37:28America first,
37:29a historic
37:30battlefield victory.
37:32For decades,
37:34Iran killed Americans
37:35with roadside bombs
37:36in Iraq,
37:37using cowardly proxies
37:39to do their dirty work
37:40while they hid safely
37:41in Tehran.
37:43They struck our embassies
37:44with car bombs
37:45and attacked from the shadows,
37:46never daring to face us
37:48toe-to-toe.
37:50They thought they could
37:51bleed America
37:51with impunity.
37:53Well,
37:54they just learned the hard way
37:55what happens when you
37:57try to fight us
37:58directly.
37:58And even when they got lucky,
38:01one time
38:02in 40 days,
38:04and down two of our pilots,
38:05they couldn't hold them.
38:07In a daring
38:0814-hour rescue operation,
38:10seven hours in daylight
38:12and seven hours of night,
38:14both pilots
38:15were recovered safely.
38:17Not once,
38:19but twice.
38:21A daylight thunder run
38:23right up the middle
38:24of their country.
38:26Boots on the ground.
38:28A midnight raid
38:30right up the middle
38:32of their country.
38:34Boots on the ground.
38:37Zero American casualties.
38:39The Iranians,
38:41humiliated and demoralized.
38:43We control their fate,
38:44not the other way around.
38:46That's why they came
38:48to the table.
38:50Iran's defeat
38:51is America's retribution
38:52for every American
38:53lost to Iranian terror,
38:56especially those brave troops
38:57killed by Iranian-made
38:58roadside bombs in Iraq
39:00that my generation
39:01knows so well.
39:03And for the suffering
39:04their regime has inflicted
39:05around the world.
39:07Now we have a chance
39:08at real peace
39:09and a real deal.
39:11The War Department,
39:12for now,
39:13for now,
39:14has done its part.
39:16We stand ready
39:17in the background
39:18to ensure Iran
39:19upholds every
39:20reasonable term.
39:22And as everyone knows,
39:24nobody makes
39:25a better deal
39:26than President Trump.
39:28To the warriors
39:29of epic fury,
39:31I say well done.
39:33You're the backbone
39:33of our country.
39:34Your skill,
39:35your bravery,
39:36and sheer guts
39:36and grit
39:37showed the world
39:38what America
39:39is all about.
39:40I'm proud of you.
39:42We're proud of you.
39:43The president
39:44is proud of you.
39:45Job well done.
39:47But stay vigilant
39:49and stay ready.
39:51To the families
39:52of our fallen,
39:53your sacrifice
39:54was in service
39:55of a historic cause.
39:56And we will always
39:57remember your heroes,
39:58our heroes.
40:00We will continue
40:01to honor them.
40:02And to our Israeli allies,
40:04thank you for being
40:05a brave,
40:06capable,
40:06and willing ally
40:08on this battlefield.
40:10The rest of the world
40:11and the rest of our
40:12so-called allies
40:13saw what real capabilities
40:14looked like
40:15they should take
40:16some notes.
40:18Our troops,
40:20our American warriors,
40:21deserve the credit
40:22for this day.
40:24But God deserves
40:25all the glory.
40:27Tens of thousands
40:28of sorties,
40:29refuelings,
40:29and strikes
40:30carried out
40:31under the protection
40:32of divine providence.
40:34A massive effort
40:35with miraculous protection.
40:39Dude 44 Bravo
40:41spoke for all of us.
40:44God is good.
40:47The chairman
40:47will now provide
40:48an even deeper
40:49military detail
40:50on the historic
40:52success of Operation Epic Fury.
40:54Mr. Chairman.
40:54Thank you,
40:55Mr. Secretary,
40:55and good morning,
40:56ladies and gentlemen.
40:57Thanks for being here.
40:58I want to start
40:59this morning
41:00by honoring
41:00the 13 members
41:01of our American
41:02Joint Force
41:03who were killed
41:04in action thus far
41:05during this operation.
41:06Their sacrifice
41:07and that of their families
41:09is deeply important to us
41:11and we are grateful
41:12for each of them
41:14and will continue
41:15to mourn their loss.
41:17Their names
41:17and their bravery
41:18will never be forgotten.
41:20On February 28th,
41:22the President of the United States
41:23ordered the Joint Force
41:24to execute Operation Epic Fury
41:26with the direction
41:29to accomplish
41:29three distinct
41:30military objectives.
41:32Destroy Iran's ballistic missile
41:34and drone capabilities,
41:36destroy the Iranian Navy
41:37and destroy their
41:39defense industrial base
41:40to ensure that Iran
41:41cannot reconstitute
41:43the ability
41:44to project power
41:45outside their borders.
41:46Over the course
41:47of 38 days
41:48of major combat operation,
41:50the Joint Force
41:50achieved the military objectives
41:52as defined
41:53by the President.
41:54We welcome
41:55the ongoing ceasefire
41:57and as the Secretary said,
41:58we hope that Iran
41:59chooses a lasting peace.
42:01But as Secretary Hegseth said,
42:03let us be clear,
42:04a ceasefire is a pause
42:05and the Joint Force
42:07remains ready
42:08if ordered or called upon
42:10to resume combat operations
42:12with the same speed
42:14and precision
42:15as we've demonstrated
42:16over the last 38 days
42:18and we hope
42:19that that is not the case.
42:20I want to congratulate
42:22and thank the leadership today
42:23at U.S. Central Command,
42:25including the Commander,
42:26Admiral Brad Cooper,
42:28the Deputy Commander,
42:29Lieutenant General,
42:30Kevin Leahy,
42:30the Senior Enlisted Leader,
42:32Fleet Master Chief Compton,
42:35and every one
42:36of the component commanders,
42:37Senior Enlisted Leaders,
42:39and especially the staff
42:41down at U.S. Central Command
42:43who does not get called out
42:44for any of the credit
42:45but grinds 24-7
42:47to help offer the options
42:49that we bring
42:49to the Secretary
42:50and the President.
42:51I also want to highlight
42:52the forces
42:53in the United States
42:54European Command
42:55under the command
42:55of Alexis Grinkowicz
42:57who protected
42:58the western flank
42:59in support of CENTCOM.
43:01And I want to thank
43:02our partners
43:03across the intelligence community.
43:05Our ability
43:06to see and understand
43:08what an adversary is doing
43:09help us to be
43:11as decisive
43:12as we must be
43:14on the battlefield.
43:14And that includes
43:16DIA, NSA, NGA,
43:19the CIA,
43:20and the National Reconnaissance Office
43:22and others.
43:23I want to thank
43:24the other combatant commands
43:25who have thus far
43:26contributed
43:27along the way
43:28to U.S. Central Command.
43:29This includes
43:30Transcom,
43:32Stratcom,
43:33Spacecom,
43:34SOCOM,
43:35and Cybercom
43:36all of whom
43:37poured all in
43:39in support
43:40of CENTCOM's efforts.
43:42And I want to thank
43:43as the Secretary did
43:44our Gulf partners
43:45who fought alongside
43:46each and every one
43:47of us every day.
43:49From the Kingdom
43:49of Saudi Arabia,
43:51the UAE,
43:52Bahrain,
43:53Qatar,
43:53Kuwait,
43:54and Jordan
43:54all who joined us
43:56together
43:56together to defend
43:57and protect
43:58our people
43:59and our assets
43:59and who,
44:01if required,
44:02stand ready
44:02to do so again.
44:04And I want to thank
44:05my team
44:06at the Joint Staff
44:07who work literally
44:09around the clock
44:10in order to help me
44:12offer the options
44:13that I must
44:14with the associated risks
44:15to the Secretary
44:16and to the President.
44:18They are the hardest-working
44:19people that I know
44:21and I am deeply grateful
44:22for their service.
44:24Most importantly today,
44:26I want to thank
44:27America's members
44:28of the Joint Force
44:29who've poured everything
44:31that they can
44:31into Operation Epic Fury
44:33and their families
44:35who've worked 24 hours a day
44:37for 38 days.
44:39The Secretary and I
44:40could not be more proud
44:42of each and every one of you.
44:44And we deeply appreciate
44:45the support of the American people
44:48who we know
44:49always have us
44:50in our thoughts
44:51and prayers.
44:52And we can feel this
44:54literally every single day.
44:57As the Secretary said,
44:58the United States
44:59has devastated
44:59the regime's ability
45:01to harm Americans
45:02and our interests
45:03for years to come.
45:04Since the beginning
45:05of major combat operations,
45:07the United States Joint Force
45:08has struck more than
45:0913,000 targets,
45:11including in that 13,000
45:13more than 4,000
45:15dynamic targets
45:16that popped up
45:17on the battlefield
45:17and were immediately addressed
45:19thanks to the exceptional
45:20command and control system
45:22and intelligence,
45:23acumen,
45:24and agility
45:25of our Joint Force.
45:27CENTCOM forces
45:28destroyed approximately
45:2980% of Iran's
45:30air defense systems,
45:31striking more than
45:321,500 air defense targets,
45:34more than 450
45:36ballistic missile
45:37storage facilities,
45:38800 one-way attack
45:40drones storage facilities.
45:42All of these systems
45:43are gone.
45:44We've devastated
45:45Iran's command and control
45:47and logistical networks,
45:48destroying more than
45:502,000 command and control nodes,
45:52and degrading their ability
45:53to target U.S.
45:55and friendly forces.
45:57It is,
45:58and we know this,
45:59incredibly frustrating right now
46:01to be a lower-level
46:02Iranian commander
46:04trying to fight your fight.
46:05As the Secretary said,
46:07the Iranian Navy
46:08now lies mostly at the bottom
46:10of the Arabian Gulf,
46:11and we assess
46:12that we've sunk
46:12more than 90%
46:14of their regular fleet,
46:15including all of the
46:16major surface combatants,
46:17as the Secretary said.
46:19150 ships
46:20are at the bottom
46:21of the ocean,
46:22and half of the IRGC Navy's
46:24small attack boats.
46:26Joint fires
46:27projected
46:28from the land,
46:29sea, and air
46:30executed
46:30more than 700 strikes
46:32against naval mine targets,
46:35and we assess
46:35that we destroyed
46:36more than 95%
46:38of their naval mines.
46:40And perhaps,
46:41most importantly,
46:43we've destroyed
46:43Iran's defense industrial base,
46:46their ability
46:47to reconstitute
46:48those capabilities
46:49for years to come.
46:51We attacked,
46:52along with our partners,
46:53approximately 90%
46:54of their weapons factories.
46:56Every factory
46:57that produced
46:58Shahid one-way attack drones
47:00was struck.
47:01Every factory
47:02that produces
47:03the guidance systems
47:04that go into those drones
47:05was struck.
47:06Their missile
47:07defense industrial base
47:09is shattered
47:09with more than 80%
47:11of their missile facilities
47:12gone,
47:13as well as their
47:14solid rocket motor
47:15production capability.
47:17It will take years
47:19for Iran
47:19to rebuild
47:20any major surface combatants,
47:22as more than 20
47:23naval production
47:24and fabrication facilities
47:26have been damaged
47:27or destroyed,
47:28and nearly 80%
47:30of Iran's
47:31nuclear industrial base
47:32was hit,
47:33further degrading
47:34their attempts
47:35to attain
47:36a nuclear weapon.
47:38Throughout Operation Epic Fury,
47:40our Joint Force
47:41struck at the heart
47:42of Iran's ability
47:44to project power
47:45and threaten
47:46the United States
47:47and the region.
47:48And in order to do this,
47:50it required the service
47:51and sacrifice
47:52of more than 50,000
47:54American warfighters
47:56deployed across
47:57CENTCOM,
47:58EUCOM,
47:59and stateside.
48:00The Joint Force
48:02flew more than 10,000 missions,
48:04including 62 bomber missions,
48:0718 of which
48:08flew round-trip
48:09from the United States
48:11to deliver
48:13bombs on military targets.
48:15Each of these missions
48:16was more than
48:1730 hours in duration,
48:19and we did that
48:2118 times.
48:22No other military
48:23in the world
48:24can do that,
48:25and it's a testament
48:26to the logistical force
48:28that quietly serves
48:29behind them.
48:30I cannot thank
48:32TRANSCOM
48:33and the Air Force
48:34Tanker
48:35and Mobility Force
48:36more.
48:37Combined with Army
48:38and Navy Joint Fires,
48:39we stuck more than
48:4013,000 targets,
48:42and along with
48:43our Gulf partners,
48:44we've thus far
48:45intercepted
48:461,700 ballistic missiles
48:48and one-way attack drones,
48:50defending our forces
48:51and our partners
48:52in the civilian population,
48:53and we remain
48:54ready to do so
48:56should the need arise.
48:58Along the way,
49:00we consumed
49:01more than
49:016 million meals
49:03and, by my estimate,
49:05more than
49:05950,000 gallons
49:08of coffee,
49:092 million energy drinks,
49:10and a lot of nicotine,
49:12but I am not saying
49:13that we have a problem.
49:16I've laid out
49:17the statistics,
49:18but it does not
49:20truly capture
49:21the nature of combat.
49:22This is gritty
49:23and unforgiving business.
49:26It's chaotic,
49:27it's hot,
49:28it's dark,
49:29it's unpredictable,
49:29and there's always unknowns.
49:32And our people
49:33proudly walked
49:35into those unknowns
49:36and continue forward,
49:37and through it all,
49:38the Joint Force
49:39has demonstrated
49:40the unwavering resolve
49:42that the nation
49:43demands of us.
49:44We are a mission-focused force,
49:46and our objective
49:47always is to create
49:49the conditions for peace,
49:51and today we have,
49:52well, be ready,
49:53I'll be happy with you.
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