00:07Welcome to SAM Conversation, a program of South Asia Monitor.
00:13Our topic today is the United States and Israel's war versus Iran.
00:21To discuss this, it is our pleasure to invite Lieutenant General Kamal Dauer,
00:28old veteran of both the 1965 and 1971 war,
00:35and was the first Director General of the Defense Intelligence Agency,
00:44and presently is the President of the Delhi Forum for Strategic Studies.
00:51In the 1991 Gulf War, what the US-led coalition forces attacked near Baghdad,
00:58claiming it was a biological weapons laboratory, turned out to be a baby milk factory.
01:05The incident became a prominent example of the intelligence controversies about Iraq possessing weapons of mass destruction,
01:15and made it more difficult to differentiate between civilian dual-use infrastructure and hidden weapons production.
01:26In 2003, the United States attacked Iraq based on largely false assumptions that Saddam Hussein possessed stockpiles of weapons of
01:41mass destruction,
01:42held active biological, chemical, biological and chemical weapons programs,
01:51and maintained ties with terrorist organizations like Al-Qaeda.
01:55The investigations after the invasion revealed that these assumptions were based on flawed or misrepresented intelligence,
02:06and no active WND programs or links to the 9-11 attacks were found.
02:13On February 28, 2026, following failed negotiations, claims of imminent threats,
02:23and Iran's alleged continued efforts to build a nuclear weapon,
02:30the US and Israel launched Operation Epic Fury, the name selected by Trump,
02:38a series of coordinated military attacks on Iran aiming to dismantle its nuclear and ballistic missile programs,
02:47prevent regional attacks, and potentially force regime change.
02:53For 20 days since this began, this largely troop-less war has amounted to missile strikes and aerial bombardment
03:05that causing significant civilian casualties including at least 165 schoolgirls and injuring many others in Iran.
03:16The United States has deployed a formidable array of weapons and so has Israel.
03:25But what seems to have been maybe not expected by both US and Israel is the kind of response that
03:40they have got from Israel so far.
03:43A response very strong and sustained so far.
03:50Sir, I invite your thoughts on this.
03:54Thank you, South Asia Monitor and Colonel Alain Bhatt, for getting me to share my thoughts on the current West
04:02Asia war,
04:03which threatens to engulf the entire world.
04:07Anyway, one of its major ramifications that is the unprecedented energy crisis has already impacted the world.
04:14Now, before we get down to the specifics concerning this unnecessary war,
04:20let's also remember that never since the end of World War II in 1945,
04:25has the world come to another enactment of a global configuration as the currently raging Middle East war.
04:35Now, today it is on its 26th day with virtually no end in sight.
04:43Historically speaking, wars do not resolve any major differences between adversaries who flout their so-called national interests
04:52or the misplaced megalomaniac and misplaced ambitions of certain political leaders who drive such conflicts.
05:01And nobodies have been met at the end.
05:03The 28th February, as you mentioned, U.S. and Israel, or should I say Israel and the United States,
05:11launched Operation Epic Fury by attacking Iran, hoping for a regime change or destroying Iran's nuclear ambitions
05:21and its ability to attack Israel.
05:25But, as you also mentioned, Iran struck back and surprised the Americans and its allies in the Gulf region,
05:38and it attacked all the Gulf state countries, all the members of the Gulf Cooperation Council.
05:46Now, let's also not forget that on 27th February, that is the day before, when negotiations were on,
05:53there were reports coming out, reliable reports, that Iran had agreed not to enrich uranium in the months to come.
06:02But all of a sudden, which means this must have been pre-planned by Israel and U.S.,
06:07that no matter what is the stand of the Iranians, we will go in and attack.
06:11So, next day, pronto, they went in for this unnecessary attack, and now the world has been plunged into a
06:19crisis,
06:20which, let's hope, the world comes out of it, and nothing worse gets on.
06:29There's been unprecedented devastation, both in Iran and Israel and Tel Aviv and all that,
06:36and unnecessarily innocents and civilians, as you mentioned also,
06:41190 or 182 children in a school in Tehran have got slaughtered.
06:48What was their fault?
06:49You know, so Iran surprised them back, and it is now fighting with all it has, with all its determination.
07:00And the Americans and the Israelis forgot that this is not Venezuela.
07:04Iran is an old civilization.
07:06They have their own, you know, respect for each other, for themselves, for their civilization and their religion and their
07:14way of life.
07:15And unnecessarily, the Israelis and the U.S. attacked them.
07:21And you see, these days, what happens is, with weaponry and position-guided munitions and high explosives and all sorts
07:28of things,
07:29today, collateral damage occurs, a hell of a lot of collateral damage occurs.
07:35Now, Tel Aviv has never seen such, some of their buildings also getting destroyed within Tel Aviv.
07:41So, I don't know, what is the end game, or what are the terminal objectives the U.S. and Israel
07:47had carved out for themselves?
07:50As I can understand.
07:51But yet, you know, their response has always been generally disproportionate.
07:56And now, I think they are rowing, I am sure, with a fair number of Americans, more than 50%.
08:02Americans also are not supporting their own president in this so-called war against Iran.
08:11So, these are my initial thoughts, and you can ask me any other, you know, questions as we go along.
08:16Thank you, sir. Thank you, sir.
08:19Sir, well, you just mentioned that even Americans are not happy.
08:23But what have they been able to do about it, sir?
08:29Right.
08:31In the case of Israel, there could be some justification because Israel came under a horrendous attack by the Hamas.
08:40And the Hamas are connected, Iran has been connected to the Hamas and to the Houthis and to the Hezbollah
08:52also.
08:53At least they, Iran has been providing moral support to all three and material support to some or at some
09:04stage or the other.
09:05But for the US, and I think particularly under Trump, we are seeing the most naked kind of compulsive hegemonic,
09:20almost compulsive colonial hegemonies.
09:26It's, it's, it's, it's amounting to the Hindi word that I can think of is Dadagiri.
09:31But a very, you know, very deadly kind of Dadagiri.
09:35How do you think this, this is going to play out, sir?
09:40You mentioned a very pertinent point about, even Americans are not happy about it.
09:46We are hearing some very sane voices say that, but he's still at it.
09:52The Americans have put up a 15 point plan to the, to the Iranians.
10:00And the Iranians have also put up certain conditions.
10:05So some back, you know, though the Iranians have sort of generally not agreed that we are talking to the
10:13Americans, but the American president has said so.
10:15So he couldn't be, he couldn't be pulling such a fast one.
10:19Though President Trump has a habit of saying something in the morning and, you know, changing his stance by the
10:25afternoon.
10:25And then once again changing it in the evening, all that is apart.
10:29They've, I think there are some backdoor deliberations going on between the Iranians and through intermediaries like Turkey, Saudi Arabia,
10:39and even Pakistan has been named as one of the so-called, you know, interlocutors for some mediation, or at
10:48least as the host.
10:49Oh, that's what they're talking about.
10:52And, you know, trying to tell India, you know, trying to score a brownie point against India.
10:56Now, having said that, what may happen is anybody's guess.
11:02Now, the Americans have also put in, Americans and Israelis have put in some very strong conditions.
11:07You see, enrichment of uranium is fine.
11:10But to tell them that you will, that you will not have missiles of a particular range and beyond that.
11:18Israeli, I don't think the Iranians will accept it.
11:21They are also a very proud people, a proud civilization.
11:25And as long as I think they must, everybody must take a step back from their so-called stated positions.
11:32Otherwise, the negotiations will again fail.
11:36And as you know, Trump has given from 48 hours notice to five days, and now he's given a month's
11:42notice, you know, commencing today.
11:45So that's fine.
11:46And so that negotiations can take place and fructify to the levels of which both Iranians and the Israeli Americans
11:56will agree.
11:57But I don't think Israel is very keen on these negotiations to succeed.
12:02It appears from, you know, from media reports and things like that.
12:07But let's hope that better sense prevails.
12:10And I would say in this so-called negotiations and mediation and all that India, which is in touch with
12:17some of the leaders of the Gulf Council and only today, President Trump spoke to Prime Minister, Prime Minister today
12:24only.
12:24So I think India must put in the case very forcefully.
12:30We have moral authority.
12:31There's no denying it.
12:32Some people feel in this country that we have no leverage.
12:35No, we have, I think, leverage because of our past reputation.
12:39India is India.
12:40And so with our strategic autonomy behind us and a sense of morality in our politics, which we've always had
12:48since we got independence, I think India will have and we have, you know, the Iranians speak to us.
12:56They also know that India also has a huge Shia population.
13:00And also they've been friendly with us.
13:03The Americans are.
13:04So is Israel.
13:05The Americans, of course, play a bit of a double game when it comes to India.
13:09Let me be very frank about it, unfortunately.
13:12But the fact remains that India should try and offer its good offices, its country also for some mediation or,
13:21you know, at least talk to them so that some sense arrives.
13:25And the world does not suffer.
13:27Sir, you brought it out very clearly and that India must, you know, must try to do that.
13:37All we can give, you know, and you also mentioned about the double game that the US plays.
13:47In the best of days, you know, and the best of times of India-US relations, we've got to face
13:56it, there's always been the US deep state, you know, well in action in trying all kinds of, you know,
14:05stunts against India.
14:06And so is it now.
14:10But if you go back a year ago, sir, when we, you know, when we implemented Sindur, Operation Sindur, in
14:20barely four days.
14:22And truthlessly, we, you know, it was unprecedented the way we clamped down on Pakistan, both on their terrorist networks
14:36and on their military assets.
14:43Look at, look at, look at the, look at the, look at his, Trump's reaction then, sir.
14:48The less said, the better.
14:51Now, it, it, it, it becomes so difficult, sir, because we've just had a case of, barely two
15:01days ago is saying, I'm stopping all attacks for five days.
15:07And that was, maybe, not even five hours or so later.
15:15And I think there was, there may be some financial game here, the financial stakes here.
15:23But whatever be the case of, it, it, it becomes very difficult.
15:28India, I think so far, we can give it some credit that it's, it has been able to, you know,
15:42have
15:43a fair balance with Iran.
15:47The result being that, at least our ships and tankers are getting through the whole states.
15:55Yes.
15:56Absolutely.
15:57Well, I mean, this war is so different in so many ways, sir.
16:03It is, I think, very important.
16:05And, you know, you, you mentioned about Pakistan.
16:09Pakistan being intermediaries, I think, rude jokes, sir.
16:15It is, it is a, it is a country which, which is, is a, a producer of terrorism, a supporter,
16:25a producer, sponsor of terrorism.
16:30And, anyway, what, what do you feel is other, anything further that India can do, sir?
16:43No, what I said is that we've got the channels of communication open with both Israel and
16:49the U.S. and the Iranians.
16:52And our foreign minister is also nearly every day, I think, speaking to, you know, his counterparts
16:57across.
16:58Yes, yes, yes.
16:59So, that point is there.
17:01Plus, India can also do, indulge in some humanitarian assistance to, you know, for example, we can
17:10send some humanitarian assistance to Iran also.
17:12You know, there's nothing wrong with it.
17:14Humanitarian, I'm saying, not any military assistance.
17:17And the other thing is, you know, I think we missed out on one important point, since
17:23we are both military, that the Americans have, have alerted their 82 airborne division
17:30and Marines also, who are moving towards maybe Khargaland or somewhere.
17:35And if the Americans do that, they do not know what will happen, you know, how many, you know,
17:42body bags they'll have to take back.
17:45Because people must realize the geography of, of Iran, it's a mountainous country.
17:50Yes.
17:51And, you know, it is very difficult to advance with the, you know, even if you have adequate
17:58boots on the ground, there can never be any adequate number of boots on the ground.
18:02So, the Americans must desist from this temptation of launching their 82nd Airborne Division and
18:10the Marines and all.
18:11And, but I'm a little alarmed, militarily speaking, as far as this, unless and until the Americans
18:18are trying to, you know, pose some sort of a threat to the Iranians.
18:23So, I think the America would be well advised not to put any boots on the ground.
18:29Sir, you said it, the America is readying about 5,000 or more.
18:39It started with 2,000, but it's 5 to 7,000 of whatever number of thousands it is, sir.
18:47Iran's trump card, so to speak, sir, pun intended, is a production of drones at the rate of 20,000,
18:58you know, 20,000 in peace.
19:00And ranging from that, and they, there is plenty of them.
19:06And just drones for, for their machinery as well as their men, these drones can be, you know, very, very
19:18dangerous.
19:19And their, other greater, great weapon is the Khuram Shahs, a 13 meter long missile which, which goes up to
19:3120, you know, they've got, they've got enough of firepower and they've got guts, they've got determination.
19:43Which, we, we hope, it doesn't come to, because one fears that there may be, there may be far too
19:51many casualties for the, the Americans.
19:55And they may not find too many of Iranian troops on the ground, sir.
20:02All they will be an easy target for these, you know, the, the, the latest weapon of today drones.
20:12Do you, do, do, do you see any, any, any effect that, because even, even Israel, sir, Israel is still
20:24at it, despite the kind of pulverization that Iran has done of some places in Tel Aviv,
20:33in Lebanon also.
20:36Again, Lebanon also, one hopes and prays that, you know, things get, because already, touch wood, India has not felt
20:46the, you know, felt the effect so much.
20:53One has filled petrol today in Bombay, it's, it's, it's still 103 rupees, 55 say.
21:02Yeah.
21:02It's not yet, what I'm trying to say, sir, it's not yet been raised.
21:08Yeah.
21:09Good.
21:10You know, India's handling the overall crisis in a good manner, but I would say, you know, since we're both
21:15military, as I had said, there are many lessons for India also to learn from this, this war.
21:21And, you know, and one of them is, of course, that we have to now change or, or really go
21:29into the tactics, you know, and the, our equipment policies, and the, not only from the Russo-Ukrainian war, but
21:37this one also, that how asymmetric warfare is now becoming very important.
21:42And how very low cost equipment, like drones, other unmanned platforms, can, you know, outdo a million dollar missiles and
21:55things like that.
21:55So I'm sure the three armed forces, the three services or our Indian armed forces would be going into all
22:01these details.
22:02This is one major lesson which you have to learn to imbibe is to really study the, all the nuances
22:09of this asymmetric warfare and how new weaponry, new tactics and new strategies should be put into place as far
22:19as our operational preparedness is concerned.
22:21And the other point is, you know, I feel that security preparedness and all the, as they say, the constituents
22:28of our comprehensive national power, it must be gone into it.
22:31And it, security is a 24 by 7 endeavor, you know, and you cannot, and there's nothing available off the
22:38shelf.
22:39So the Indian armed forces must very seriously take into account, you know, what, what we need and the government
22:47must give, you know, allocate additional funds or things like that.
22:53And we are prepared for the next battle and not prepared for the previous battle, which we have fought with
22:59distinction in 65 and 70, you know, or the Kargil war or things like that.
23:03We have to prepare ourselves to the, to the various nuances of asymmetric warfare.
23:11Very well brought out, sir.
23:15Although it's a consolation that what happened, what we, what we displayed in Operation Sindhu was, I think, for a
23:27lot of us, a pleasant surprise.
23:30Because there were, there were a lot of, as strategic analysts or as a defense, you know, observers, commentators, there's
23:44so many laments we had, we don't have this, we should have this, we don't, we don't do this, we
23:49should do this.
23:50Well, in Sindhu it was actually done, sir, and it, Sindhu proved that a lot of our deficiencies have been
24:01made good.
24:02This Atmanirbharata, which used to be sort of parroted, it was actually, we saw it implemented, sir.
24:11But that should certainly not make us complacent, sir.
24:14It must not make us complacent, sir.
24:16There's, there's still so much to do, so much to learn, and, like you said, sir, this, although we are
24:25known, not new to asymmetric warfare at all, sir.
24:29What have we been doing with Pakistan?
24:33It's, it's one of the classic examples of asymmetric warfare.
24:38But, here, in, in, in, in all other aspects also, sir, where equipment is concerned, etc., sir.
24:51I must thank you for bringing out a lot of important factors, sir, and is there anything you'd like to
24:58add?
25:00Yeah, very briefly, you know, you also mentioned about Atmanirbharata, self-reliance should be, you know, we should work 24
25:08-7 for self-reliance.
25:10Not only in our arms and equipment and platforms and weaponry, but also in diversifying and ensuring what, what do
25:18you do for sources of energy?
25:20Whether it's wind power, whether it's solar power, whether it's diversifying your purchases, because, you see, for an emerging global
25:28power, if, if you were getting 87% of your energy sources from outside, it is, it is not, you
25:34know, it would, it would be very difficult for us to, in moments of crisis.
25:39So, we have to find a way out for alternative sources of power and energy, and, of course, our own
25:46Atmanirbharata in our defence equipment.
25:50And, I think, for the rest of the country, sir, you know, capitalise on production of electricity, because, I hope
26:01it doesn't, we don't have to follow it, but, that may, that may be one,
26:08source of energy we may have to fall back on, for the kitchen that, you know, are,
26:15Absolutely.
26:17The normal, you know, the normal man's kitchen going.
26:22True.
26:23Thank you very much, sir.
26:26All the best, sir.
26:28Thank you. My pleasure, as always, talking to you.
26:31God bless. Jai Hind.
26:33Jai Hind, sir.
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