Dr. Smruti Pattanaik, Research Fellow, Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses, New Delhi speaks with Col Anil Bhat (Retd.) on the renewal of India-Afghanistan relations | SAM Conversation
00:00Welcome to SAM Conversation, a program of South Asia Monitor.
00:14It's time now to look at the new direction that India and Afghan Taliban are taking.
00:25The relationship between India and the Afghan Taliban, what new direction it's taking.
00:33And for that, it is our pleasure to welcome Dr. Smriti Pattonite,
00:39Research Fellow of the Manohar Parikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analysis.
00:50She's a very experienced person, you know, in South Asia, in South Asian affairs.
01:02Dr. Pattonite, a lot has happened and is happening.
01:10Right from the time the Afghan Taliban Foreign Minister visited us and we gave the world a surprise by firstly, you know, not only inviting them but arranging for them to meet a very old group here.
01:38This tenure of the Taliban is certainly not the same as the first tenure.
01:48And as far as India is concerned, I recall writing about five papers on from the time we entered Afghanistan and opened our embassy there.
02:04And we began a long process of assistance by way of reconstruction and so many other aspects.
02:14What all would you like to bring out on this?
02:16See, I think it is a very significant development and the Taliban 2.0 India has been keen in engaging them.
02:26As you know, Anil, we have invested near about $3 billion in Afghanistan in development and assistance.
02:36We have been also partnering in capacity building exercises with Afghanistan for quite some time.
02:44And also we are, you know, constructing roads, railways, the full Cymru, you know, the electricity grid, which brings electricity to Kabul.
02:58So our engagement with Afghanistan has been longstanding.
03:02And I think Afghanistan at this point of time also needs India's engagement and India's investment.
03:08And the Taliban, after coming to power, they expressed that keenness that India should continue with the developmental work it was doing because that was beneficial for Afghanistan.
03:24As you know, the Taliban government is not recognized by any countries and China and Russia, if I'm not mistaken, they have already opened their embassy.
03:37We had a technical mission, that is what India used to call in Kabul.
03:42But now that has been upgraded to, you know, a full-fledged Indian embassy there.
03:49So what does this signal?
03:52I think this signals that India's commitment to be engaged in developmental activities in Afghanistan, one.
03:59Number two, India has its own security concerns.
04:03It does not want the Afghan territory to be used against India, a place which Taliban has already taken and given an assurance.
04:12Number three is the Chabar port, which India has been developing.
04:17And if you have seen the news report today, it says that India has been given a reply from, you know, from the United States, you know, which was supposed, which had said that it would put sanctions.
04:29I think we have got time till next year, probably I don't remember the date, but next year.
04:37So therefore, the development of the port and Afghanistan becomes very significant for our trade with the landlocked Central Asian countries.
04:47And the Chabar port will also provide access to Afghanistan.
04:52And if you remember, a few years back, India, Afghanistan and Iran had a trilateral on Chabar.
05:00So all these, I think, are very significant because Chabar and our connectivity to Central Asia should be seen along with INSTC and the IMEC, which, you know, was proposed.
05:14So therefore, I think overall a very significant development.
05:18So therefore, I will not compare the Taliban 2.0 with Taliban 1.0.
05:23Absolutely no comparison.
05:25But I think you will agree that there's so much that we did there, which is paying us now with Taliban, Taliban's second tenure.
05:39There were instances when, let's say, the border road, you know, the Indian working there were attacked by the then Taliban.
05:52But now just see, the same Taliban is now, when you put in the total amount of assistance that we began with, the first of all, you know, food, reconstruction,
06:07the Dalaram Zaranj road, and then so many other things, so many other things, the parliament.
06:14Much of it was done in the period of Taliban 1.0 and also now it has continued in the period of Taliban 2.0.
06:25So as far as I think assistance to them is concerned, we probably are heading, you know, in amount.
06:35This investment started during, you know, when Ashraf Ghani was in power and prior to that after the fall of the Taliban 1.0.
06:46Yes.
06:47And taking this distinction between 1.0 and 2.0 because 1.0 was very much aligned with Pakistan.
06:54Oh, of course, of course, of course.
07:01So obviously, you know, the current Taliban government, they also probably have taken some lessons from their 1.0, you know, what they went through in terms of their foreign relations, their contact with outside power.
07:17So this time, it appears, you know, one is not sure to, you know, one should not jump into any very conclusion really very quickly.
07:26The Taliban also want economic development, you know, they're facing a lot of crisis because they're not recognized by any government in the world.
07:36And they also want the foreign countries to be engaged to bring in investment to Afghanistan.
07:44So two of the countries who have always been interested in investing in Afghanistan, one is India, the other one is China.
07:51So obviously, China had interest in this, you know, Hajigok mines, which we were, Hajigok and Aina cut the two mines.
08:00The two countries were supposed to develop.
08:02So, you know, so India, Indian consortium has, you know, this mining interest in Afghanistan.
08:10The question is how to evacuate the minerals.
08:13So obviously, in that context, the Chabar will play a very significant role.
08:18Well, what I think at this point, what is most important is that the Taliban, Afghan Taliban and Pakistan relationship has changed so drastically to India's advantage.
08:37I mean, just see that the very news about the Afghan, you know, foreign minister coming to India, that itself caused such a reaction that the attacks began even before he came here.
08:54And while he was here and after his return, they've continued.
09:01And Pakistan army has been getting it pretty badly, not only from the Afghan Taliban, but the Tariq Taliban Pakistan.
09:11And let's not forget the Balochis.
09:14Let's recall, not too long ago, the way the Balochis were able to hijack their train.
09:26That, of course, that also is possible, not only because of the Balochis, but because of the kind of support that the Balochis were getting from the Afghan Taliban and the Tariq Taliban Pakistan.
09:39But at this point of time, I think it matters a lot to us.
09:45I think, you know, yes, Pakistan is a factor, but I don't think India's relationship with Afghanistan has to have a Pakistan factor.
09:55We have an independent relations. As I said, we need the connectivity to the Central Asian countries and Afghanistan can provide that connectivity.
10:03The Afghanistan-Pakistan tension, which has risen because of the Tariq Taliban Pakistan and Pakistan has always accused Afghanistan of sheltering the TTP in its territory.
10:15And the TTP has been involved in a lot of violence that has been recently happening in Pakistan, of course, prior to that.
10:23Now, the thing is that if you look at this entire struggle, the fight, which, you know, against the United States presence, you know, prior to the withdrawal of the United States,
10:35the Tariq Taliban also provided foot soldiers to Taliban to fight the American force stationed in Afghanistan.
10:45So, therefore, after the withdrawal of the United States, the Taliban feels a little reluctant to really give away the TTP, which was its brother in An during their jihad against the United States.
10:58That is number one. Number two is that the Taliban has always denied.
11:02Of course, you know, this is something which one cannot really believe.
11:06If the TTP, you know, militants are there, as you know, there is a very porous border that exists between Afghanistan and Pakistan.
11:16In any case, Afghanistan does not recognize the Durand line.
11:19So this affinity between the militant groups, especially who fought along with Taliban during the American presence, actually does not allow the Taliban to give up.
11:31If you go by the, you know, the principles, especially the Pashtunwali code also, you know, because majority of the Taliban are Pathans.
11:42So this is one. Second is that, you know, the cross border strikes, Pakistan decision to send back the Afghan refugees at a time when Afghanistan itself was facing crisis was also not taken kindly by the Taliban regime,
11:58because most of these people, you know, it was a kind of humanitarian crisis and they were forced to leave Pakistan and go get back to Afghanistan.
12:08That also was a kind of tension between the two. Second, the cross border rates that has been taken up by the Pakistan army in Afghanistan is something the Taliban sees as a kind of threat to their sovereignty.
12:25Of course, now the Taliban is saying in any case there is no border that exists between Pakistan and Afghanistan.
12:31So this tension after Taliban took over, because Pakistan expected that Afghanistan, peace in Afghanistan.
12:38It's great backyard, you know, the strategic depth, so to speak.
12:44Yes, strategic depth and also peace in Afghanistan would mean that, you know, their western border will be much more peaceful, whereas they can take on the eastern border.
12:54But the western border has not been peaceful even after Taliban came to power.
12:58Pakistan also thought that it can play a dominant role as it played during Taliban 1.0.
13:04That also has not been possible.
13:06So therefore, you know, Pakistanis who were very, very elated when the United States left Afghanistan are one of the most dissatisfied or disgruntled currently in, you know, as far as their relationship with Afghanistan.
13:23Afghanistan is concerned.
13:24Now, I think another very important aspect, which, or a possibility, which is not getting confirmed so far, is the Afghan Taliban's invitation or request for Indian forces
13:52to take charge in Bagram and the Wakan Corridor, the use of the Wakan Corridor.
14:02I mean, this is the worst time that the Afghan Taliban have acknowledged that, look, there is a common border that Afghanistan and India also have, which no one ever talked about in the past.
14:20Because everything got obscured by the fact that, okay, you know, Pakistan is in the middle and there is the, what do you call it, Pakistan-occupied Kashmir, Pakistan-occupied Jammu Kashmir or Azad Kashmir, whatever.
14:38And, but now there, there's a lot of, all that is being talked about.
14:45And on, on some networks, YouTube, they say, we've already gone and taken over the, both land and air force, both army and air force.
14:58I can't, I can't, I'm not, I'm not certainly confirming that. I, I said, certainly I cannot, but the way it's being talked about, the, I think the possibility cannot be ruled out.
15:12Your take on that?
15:14I, I don't think, I don't think India will put its, you know, their force or the army and take over the Pagram, you know, base there.
15:24I, I don't think India is interested. We have a policy of not putting our soldiers in, you know, such kind of situation, especially after 1987, the Indo-Lanka, where we had sent the peacekeeper.
15:38After that, if you, you know, there is a decision in India that we will never send our troops to anywhere, you know, except for the UN peacekeeping coming, going under a particular banner.
15:50And that is one of the reasons why when the United States had wanted India to send its troops, there is a UN banner.
15:59So we will not, I don't think this is a kind of speculation.
16:03They are also playing into rhetorics just to tell the Pakistanis that, you know, we are friends with India kind of thing.
16:10That is the kind of signal they want to send.
16:12But I don't think this is something which is feasible or India has thought about putting its force.
16:18Probably the Taliban should think of getting the Americans back in Bagram.
16:23Maybe the American will provide them with a kind of security.
16:26Americans now, please, the Americans, at least Trump, Trump is all on, you know, he is raring to go like a crazy horse.
16:41True, but the thing is that Americans were there.
16:44Trump is not going to stay beyond the second time.
16:47So, you know, if you, if the Taliban is so much.
16:50Yes, but Trump has been there, he's been there and he's going to be there for long enough, long enough to do a lot of damage.
16:59No, no, the only country who is interested to go to Bagram is the United States.
17:04So if Taliban is so keen to stop the Pakistanis from attacking, they should put the United States.
17:11No, but they, they, I don't think, from whatever has emerged in the past few weeks, I don't think the Afghan Taliban is disposed very positively towards, at least the Trump regime, so to speak.
17:32No, that is true.
17:33So I am just proposing, if there's so much of interest rather than asking India to come there, which India will not.
17:40So they should ask the interested party that they want to come, they want to be there.
17:45Obviously, it will not be in India's interest, the American presence there.
17:49And we know that the American presence, they want the presence there to keep an eye on Iran, Russia and China.
17:58So therefore, it does not serve India's interest.
18:02You know, I am just rhetorically saying that if the Taliban is so keen, he gives up a grand peace.
18:07Yes, Mruti.
18:08But please also remember, for the first time, at least a statement has been made by Indian leaders,
18:17that, you know, whatever cartographic lines we have, are not, they are not so sacrosanct anymore.
18:26I may put it that way.
18:28I mean, we all have said that, it means said both by the political and the army leadership that, you know, the shape of the border may change.
18:40Geography and that will mean the history also may change.
18:47I mean, all this is, we were not, we were not given to making such statements in the past.
18:54And from Sindur, of Sindur, I see that it's a new normal.
19:03Yeah, it is.
19:04It is a new normal.
19:05You know, that is much more than Pakistan.
19:08Since we are speaking of Afghanistan, I think the tension there is something which will keep the Afghan Taliban engaged.
19:18We had also, when the Taliban foreign minister was in India, there was an air attack by Pakistan, though Pakistan did not confirm that.
19:27So I think that is something probably the Taliban need to take into account.
19:33And of course, there is this peace talk which is going on, supposed to be ceasefire.
19:38But then again, there is a possibility of ceasefire violence.
19:42See, the Afghanistan-Pakistan war will be a very different kind of war.
19:46Taliban always fight a different kind of war.
19:49They don't need tanks, they don't need the air force, probably they don't need artillery gun.
19:55Their methodology is very different.
19:57But the fact remains that now, they have all these things which you mentioned.
20:02Yeah.
20:03Which in the US left, which the Americans, you know, left behind when they hightailed it.
20:08When they, you know, with their tails on fire.
20:11Yes.
20:12When they left.
20:14So, I, as a soldier, really don't like speaking about other soldiers, you know, but that's the way they went.
20:24After 20 years.
20:25Yeah, that is true.
20:26There is a book which I wrote, you know, after Abbottabad, Territu turmoil in Pakistan.
20:31Where, you know, just look at their, the way they, you know, caught Osama bin Laden.
20:41How long it took them.
20:42Yeah.
20:43So, their, their, their operations, etc. were far from, far from being, they were far from effective.
20:54So, anyway.
20:55Any, anything you'd like to add, Sundati, before we, because we are a little strapped for time.
21:07Anything you'd like to add?
21:08And I, I would say that for the long term interest of India, this engagement with Afghanistan is significant because it's not the question of engaging with Taliban, but it is also carrying out the developmental
21:23activities which actually directly links us to the people of Afghanistan, whom, with whom we share a historical connection.
21:31So, therefore, it needs to be seen, our engagement with Afghanistan needs to be seen in the larger geopolitical context, as well as neighborhood policy.
21:40As I said, it has due to strategic significance, India's presence in Afghanistan, in development projects especially, and also our connectivity to Central Asia.
21:50I think those are the two things which India is very keen on, and that is why India has been very keen on developing the infrastructure there.
21:59And so, I think that will take us a long way in sustaining the India-Afghanistan relations, in spite of whoever is in power.
22:08And that is one of the reasons why Taliban wanted India to be back in Afghanistan, because of the kind of work we did.
22:17We are not party to the kind of geopolitics that was happening at that point of time.
22:21We are more into the development projects, and we wanted stability in Afghanistan, because the development projects cannot come up unless there is stability in Afghanistan.
22:33No doubt.
22:34No doubt.
22:35No doubt.
22:36No doubt.
22:37Anyway, Smuthi, I must thank you.
22:41Even at a time when you were not being, you were not fully, you were still not too well, you gave your time.
22:50I wish you Godspeed in getting back to normal.
22:56And there is a lot happening.
22:59We look forward to having another chat sometime in the future.
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