Maj Gen Rajan Kochhar (Retd.), strategic and security affairs analyst, speaks with Col Anil Bhat (Retd.) on growing India-US friction post Op Sindoor | SAM Conversation
00:00welcome to Sam conversation a program of South Asia monitor subject today is dealing with the
00:17United States after operation Sindhu it is a pleasure to welcome Major General Rajen Kocha
00:26retired doesn't need much of an introduction he's a strategic analyst who is concerned with involved
00:36with a number of think tanks the operation Sindhu was launched in the night of 7th and would
00:44carried on for 88 hours and within the first 23 minutes we had destroyed nine of their terrorist
00:53hideouts or headquarters and thereafter when they attacked some of our civilian locations
01:02they got you know we've countered that also but the next step we took neutralized first reported 11
01:14and then reported as many as 18 whatever it is it was a rude shock to the United States to mr. Trump in
01:26particular and to the United States he may have repeated about 40 times or more that he was the one
01:38responsible for you know making this causing the ceasefire of operation Sindhu which is not so and it was
01:48conveyed to him thereafter he has worked hard at at ruining a relationship which had been built over
02:03over over a couple of decades and well we we know that you know countries like the United States they
02:16they they still suffer very much from a colonial hangover colonizing any country by physically occupying it is one way
02:28but after the Second World War onwards 1945 onwards the United States has tried to colonize the almost the entire world and its terms of friendship are that you know you should be a few notches below
02:46without going further there's so much there's so much there's so much there's so much that can be said for this but
02:56Jil Kochara I invite your views on what all has happened and what will be more important what what we need to do
03:08Jil Kochara Thank you very much sir for inviting me over to this wonderful conversation Sam conversations and
03:20I think the whole nation is concerned today because US India relations were taking a very firm trajectory and
03:32uh nobody I think uh not even in the Ministry of External Affairs uh people would have uh thought that uh such a setback will happen
03:46with uh Indo-US relations and especially when we see this post Sindhu uh period it's a very very crucial period last
03:59five months I would say that and in the last five months uh what has happened uh few of all lines if I can just bring out uh before going into the details of the reasons
04:17and what actions can be taken by India now to bring this relationship back on track uh first and foremost was uh
04:29if you would be aware that uh if you would be aware that uh the statements uh being made by president
04:36Trump on the ceasefire of India and Pakistan uh this context is very important when we talk about uh relationships
04:48because relationships are based on strong personalities today and we
04:55uh have President Trump has a very strong personality we have Prime Minister Modi also has a very strong
05:03personality so what we saw was a clash of personalities because Trump has repeatedly been
05:14making statements I think more than 40 times he has reiterated that he was the one who was responsible for
05:22ending this uh India-Pakistan war and we have been denying this and then after this this process started like I would say
05:37like a pack of cards you know falling down tariffs was the next major decision by the United States 25%
05:49tariffs on India and then followed by the Russian oil in Broglo uh putting 25% more tariffs then it was
06:01followed by the H-1B visa and it has uh you are aware that 71% of the Indians uh in the whole uh H-1B visa it is
06:1771% Indians which are affected there almost uh three lakhs of uh students uh then we had this
06:29a Jabar port uh sanctions being thrust on us you would be aware that uh we have a 10-year operational contract
06:39uh with uh Iran on the Shahid Bahesti terminal 120 million dollars invested by the India
06:52Port Global Limited with 250 million dollars debt financing so that was a major uh uh uh setback for
07:04India I would say that and why I say it is a setback is because it uh directly connects the international
07:14north-south transport corridor and a pathway to the Central Asian Republic as well as Russia
07:20as well as Afghanistan and then we have finally what we are seeing is there has been a perceptible
07:29uh outreach by the United States towards Pakistan and uh uh this has caused I think uh strategic uh
07:42anxiety in New Delhi and especially in the aftermath of the Pakistan Saudi Arabia deal also
07:51which I believe has been orchestrated by the United States itself so we have seen these things happening and
08:02then uh one noticeable feature has been that if you uh observe sir that Trump does not talk uh anything
08:15about the Indo-Pacific region he does not talk about Quad anymore he does not talk about the Indo-Pacific
08:27economic framework so there has been a perceptible shift in the foreign policy of the United States
08:34uh focusing more on Middle East and South Asia and less focus now uh with the Chinese uh threat as I
08:48see Trump is now visiting China and there is going to be some kind of overtures with the China some kind of
08:58bending of uh bending of fences with the China so these are the turmoils in the relationships now and I would sum it up to say
09:10that uh uh Indo-US relations are built on a uh strong strategic framework
09:22uh we have uh we have the comcosa we have the becca we have the compact we have the trust which uh in
09:36February uh 2025 when the prime minister Modi went to the United States they came up with this instead of
09:47compact compact you would agreement in the Biden administration they came up with
09:53transforming relationships utilizing strategic technology so the areas which are of concern to India
10:02are technology
10:06and defense deals secure supply chains with the United States so these are two three important aspects
10:15uh where I feel that this kind of an impact on the trade aspects on the personality aspects on the other aspects
10:26should not cast a shadow on these things we need to dehyphenate these two things because of this
10:34relationship has to be built up and if it has to be repaired because uh there is a
10:43a lot of mistrust now among the Indians especially the Indian administration that how far can we go with
10:51the United States so there is a rethinking on right now and uh we may uh in times to come have a lesser
11:00dependence on the United States but as of now it seems that uh India is inclined to repair the damage
11:08the damage because no strong statements have emanated from India uh anti-US because uh India values this
11:18partnership values this friendship and there is a much at stake uh we will discuss this uh as we go along sir
11:28but thank you uh right from the beginning
11:37um you said it you were very correctly brought on this class of clash of personalities
11:44but in that clash it is trump who's been
11:47who's been talking utter nonsense whereas Mr. Narendra Modi has been very he said nothing untoward at all
12:02he said he's not said much he's done of course there's no doubt about there's no doubt about uh what he's done
12:09uh and i think the first sign that we got was uh when Mr. Piyush uh you know the first round that he had
12:21he was he was he was very very clear about what uh you know that we are not going to be taken for a ride
12:31since like this yeah in the no no we because we we we cannot you see i think uh
12:40the what what what has happened is something which would which is sort of waiting to happen
12:47you know you can't continue a relationship where um you know we we we've grown as we've grown as a
12:58nation and we've grown with our own you know we we whatever we produced we produced at it you know with
13:06with with with lots of sanctions around us lots of you know so and i think
13:17the operation sindoor even to you and i who who you know used to keep again uh the government
13:25it was a great surprise pleasant surprise to us uh on what we have achieved over the last 10 years
13:40the way this this uh operation was carried out uh this this phase from 7th to almost 11th
13:4888 hours uh with with no boots on the ground and uh very substantial damage done which which of course
13:58was a rude shock it was a great surprise to many countries but it was a rude shock to the united states
14:05and you can't start you know um just piling on to us uh just because we did what we did to to
14:15to you know maintain our own integrity
14:19so no um well we we i'm sure and there are um um there are there's a lot that has happened in uh the united
14:34states uh uh amongst the you know mr trump's home constituency so to speak we he had 800 generals
14:46uh who greeted him with nothing but silence so that's that's a very very significant uh reaction
15:00so we have to actually see things from the indian perspective now and not from trump's perspective
15:07because trump is what he's trying to do is he is trying to put pressure on india
15:14on various fronts in order to get a good trade deal because ultimately you have to see that that he
15:22he's a businessman he wants make america great again we are aware that he is following that and if you
15:32have have followed his uh uh election manifesto he was very very clear that what he wants to do and
15:44if you analyze things and not take it from an anti-indian perspective you will find that he is doing
15:51exactly that and not only with india he is doing that with other countries also why we are feeling is
16:00uh because of uh like example i'll give you chabar port chabar port is his policy of maximum pressure on iraq
16:13uh unfortunately it is also impacting india but the main uh focus of that sanctions is to weaken iraq
16:26uh india will not get so much affected by that uh except that india will have to look for
16:36a better options because this indian the middle east economic corridor was one important aspect
16:43which us and india were planning to uh build up and i think there will be setbacks on that
16:54now from the indian point of view why is trump doing that because uh you i have i'm trying to analyze
17:03the things from indian point of view that we have so far not retaliated against america we have so far
17:13kept our mouth shut we have not made any statements uh which will rile america because we still feel
17:23there is a possibility or there is space right now to amend the fences and my hunch is just wait for one
17:40year sir both uh india and the u.s relations will be back on track because this is a pressure
17:51tactics being imposed by trump to see that who will blink first because if you see all these measures
18:00which trump has undertaken including h1b it is going to impact the americans more than the indians
18:09and i've been speaking to a lot of economists also who have been telling me with the uh you assessed facts
18:16that america is going to suffer because the entire technology programs which the americans have
18:28there is uh indian technocrats who are part of it and if he's going to stop them from coming to america
18:38and all those things it is going to impact america secondly even on the trade front if a 50 percent
18:45tariffs are imposed uh you india will find secondary markets india has already started on that
18:54minister piyosh dole has already started on that in finding alternative markets to america and
19:00once these alternative markets have been found then america will get isolated once again because america
19:09will find it difficult to go to china see in case uh you stop uh government industry
19:19gems and jewelry pharmaceuticals you you what are the alternatives available for america because
19:27for america to start producing this within its own country the industries will have to be established it
19:34will take years so trump has got very very limited time he has got only three and a half years so he
19:41wants to do a maximum kind of things in three and a half years so i i personally think and this is my
19:48assessment that whatever measures trump has undertaken he'll have to roll them back and it has happened
19:57before also with trump uh for example china from 300 percent he has come down to 30 percent now
20:08china has got only a 30 percent tariff because he knows that the rare earth the entire electronics
20:18electric vehicle industry electric vehicle industry is going to be stalled in in case he antagonizes china so
20:27that is why he is going to china now he's going to mend fences with china
20:33and he knows that he can't take panga with china at all
20:38with india he's taking the chance because he thinks that he he may be able to get away with it because
20:47uh the indian ideology and the chinese but india you're right but india is giving it to him
20:56we're also we've not taken all this lying down we haven't taken any big pangas but uh we are i think
21:06holding our own to quite an extent we are silently doing it sir we are not uh verbose you we are not
21:16no no certainly not but we we are in in practice we are doing i think what what is what is best for our country
21:26and you know we we with that we i think we and i hope we can continue doing that we don't buckle
21:33we must not buckle and under this chair because he's he is at he's he's not normal
21:40he's not normal you know and you my rebuilding strategy is built on three pillars i would recommend
21:53the first pillar is a decouple a decouple means that yeah okay yes take the tariff issue separately and
22:05the strategic agreements issue separately because strategic uh agreements involves our j e uh 404
22:16jet engines a 414 jet engines the predator drones the uh is uh is is copy uh 81 surveillance aircrafts and
22:31and and uh uh javelin missiles striker combat vehicle so there is a vast uh area where we are invested
22:42with the us in technology and uh so decoupling means that we take these two issues separately and we don't
22:53mix them let the strategic and you know the agreements continue the way they are and we need to expedite
23:00the second part of the strategy or the pillar is stabilize stabilize stabilize means there is a requirement
23:10to create some kind of a task force which can continue with the trade agreements continue negotiating for the
23:23debtors so we will use it as suburb of the trade agreement and then we make the dollars
23:26that we make it in the then we may even agree the dollar will protect them and even have a action
23:32which will benefit america we may agree for some of those things and some of those things america has to agree
23:45you especially on the agriculture products so because you see agriculture is a red line for us
23:52we will not accept what the America is trying to tell us so genetically modified yes yes you know
24:05which is which we must not and under any circumstances allow to happen yes the
24:14stabilization is the second part of the strategy and the third pillar institutionalize
24:22what the mistakes we have actually done is that whatever trade agreements we have gone into with
24:29the united states they have not been legalized uh you why i actually say is that we must have
24:39a legal binding agreements with the united states in the near future whenever we are
24:46concluding any agreement with them on the defense and the industrial accords
24:52and why it will be this is because these political swings will keep on taking place
25:01but if these agreements have a legal binding then i think this relationship will survive
25:09because right now what trump is trying to leverage he is trying to use pakistan as a pivot against india
25:19he is trying to uh show to india that i will make you more vulnerable by strengthening pakistan
25:30it's very apparent sir yes the global peace prize everything is you very apparent and his intentions are
25:40absolutely i mean they're not hidden and he has not tried to hide them also because time and again he is
25:50provoking india by making a statement that you six to seven jets were down by pakistan things like that he's trying to tell the world that uh you india is a dead economy
26:05uh you remember he has made this statement he made that he made that uh it it hasn't gone well with his own uh
26:14uh at home also you know so you see this uh uh pressure he's uh trying to build from pakistan side and pakistan and china have a very very smart understanding
26:30no but there hasn't that understanding got uh got slightly affected after no no sir i don't think so
26:38because uh you you apparently i think some of the media channels some interviews are uh giving us this
26:46impression but my assessment is that it's a very very strong relationship and it pakistan will not cross
26:56the red line chinese have told them that your red line with america is this you you will not cross this
27:05deadline and i think pakistan is going to maintain that because pakistan also knows you america is only a
27:13fair one but you know pakistan is in a very tight spot because pakistan also has been a loyal puppy dog of
27:23the u.s right since it's you know right since its birth you know once uh once the partition was affected
27:38the british well they were they they were there they played their role uh for the first few years they
27:46are the ones who who you know playing the referee i'm not very fair referee in 47 48
27:53uh see i'll just take you back sir two three years back when imran khan was the prime minister
28:01are you so um how the relationship got bad so pakistan usa will use and throw pakistan
28:13but today usa needs pakistan to exert influence on iran
28:19to exert influence on afghanistan and to exert influence on india and in turn also exert influence
28:26on russia through afghanistan he is using pakistan and that bagram airbase incident also i would like to
28:38highlight here why united states was all of a sudden very very keen in getting that airbase
28:47and in case uh america is not going to get the airspace sir please don't be surprised if pakistan gives
28:57a base to america within pakistan that will that may will be that may well be and um anyway
29:06we'll see but uh unfortunately now we're a little strat for time
29:10uh but thank you very much for some very important and significant points brought out
29:20and uh we we'll watch and um we'll we'll have i think a lot to say um as as you know in in the
29:31weeks to come thank you very much thank you very much thank you very much it was a pleasure to be on
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