00:07Welcome to SAM Conversation, a program of South Asia Monitor.
00:15Our topic today is, the US Army being crumpled upon.
00:28It is our pleasure to welcome Major General Jagatbir Singh, retired, from 18th Cavalry,
00:40Indian Army's Ahmet Koh and Strategic Affairs Analyst, who has recently written about this
00:51very disturbing aspect of a number of US Army officers being dismissed by the Defence Secretary, Pete Heggsett.
01:13For any Army, for any professional Army, it is indeed very disturbing when the civilian leadership
01:23starts tampering with the military leadership.
01:31We have had a very poor example of this before the 1962 India-China War, in which the then Prime
01:45Minister,
01:45Dwalal Nehru, and the Defence Minister, V.K. Krishnamanand, interfered with the senior leadership of the Indian Army,
02:03Disregarded whatever they were trying to warn about the movements of the People Liberation Army on the India-Tippet border,
02:14India-Tippet occupied by China border, and the result was all there, which is history.
02:25In the case of the United States Army, with all that has been happening for the last 40 days,
02:37between US and Israel versus Iran, with the US preparing up to, I think, 700 Marines to be deployed on
02:55the ground in Iran,
02:57a move which is not considered very wise by many military analysts.
03:13I will request Mr. General Jagadbir Singh to begin, start with a few observations that he made in his recent
03:26article. Please.
03:31Good evening, sir, and good evening to all the viewers of South Asian Monitor.
03:37It is indeed a privilege and honor for me to have been invited here by Colonel Bhatt to, you know,
03:44give out some views,
03:46basically on the article which I had written regarding this removal of General Randy George, who was the 41st Chief
03:55of the US Army.
03:57So, thank you very much, sir. And, you know, you've chosen this timing of this podcast a very appropriate moment.
04:08Yesterday night, the ceasefire was announced. So let's see where that ends.
04:12And there have been a lot in the press about this removal. So I'd just like to, you know, just
04:21cover certain points about this.
04:24On 1st of April, we are well aware, today we are on the 8th, on 1st of April, exactly a
04:33week ago,
04:34President Trump that day talked about, you know, bombing Iran back to the Stone Age.
04:43I think that's what he said. And that, you know, term Stone Age, bombing Iran back to the Stone Age
04:52was attributed to a phrase which was given by General Lee May in his book, you know.
05:00And Lee May was the person who was responsible for the bombing of the US Air Force General.
05:08He was the chief at the time, beginning of the Vietnam War. And that's what he wanted to do in
05:12the Vietnam War.
05:13And that's what he did, carpet bombing in Japan and the Philippines.
05:19And you know what exactly happened in Japan, which ended the World War II.
05:26So everybody said, maybe this is a, you know, euphemism for something more sinister, nuclear, you know, threat.
05:38We'll give it in a different manner. And we've seen how these nuclear threats have been given.
05:46Nuclear weapons, incidentally, were first used in World War II and they were used to end a war.
05:53After that, they were used throughout the Cold War to prevent a war.
06:00So both states had, sides had built up nuclear weaponry, that is Russia and US.
06:08And they were talking about what they call MAD, mutually assured destruction.
06:13Destruction.
06:14And now you've seen how nuclear weapons are being used by nuclear states to threaten states that don't have nuclear
06:22weapons, persecute a war.
06:24So you've seen threats being given by Russia to Ukraine.
06:28And now you've seen President Trump do the same thing.
06:32So he criticized President Putin.
06:34So that was one thing.
06:36And the very next day, coincidentally, we saw the sacking of General Randy George, who I mentioned as the 41st
06:42Chief of the United States Army.
06:45Now the Army Chief over there is different from our Army Chief in the sense that he's not responsible for
06:53operational control.
06:54That rests in the hands of the theater commander.
06:57So that little difference is there.
07:00And he's more responsible, you know, for the training, equipping, you know, structuring the Army and ensuring their operational preparedness,
07:14so to say.
07:15But still along with him, another General David Horne was also removed.
07:20And the head of the Army Chaplain, Major General William Green was also removed.
07:24Now, this is not new.
07:25And you heard, you know, what Peter Hegg said, the Defense Secretary, he's the one who was responsible for removing
07:34them.
07:34And what is surprising is he removed them without giving any reasons.
07:39So the reasons still remain unclear as to why they were removed.
07:44You know, there have been other cases of generals being removed.
07:47But in most other cases, you had reasons for removal being clearly spelt out.
07:54Now, as far as the Trump administration is concerned, I love your, you know, the thing you've given being trumped
08:02upon.
08:02So we've seen this tramping upon the generals of tramping upon the senior military leadership, sir.
08:10Because apart from him earlier, we've seen the removal of General Charles C Q Brown, who was the chairman of
08:17the Joint Chief of Staff.
08:19You've seen the Admiral Lisa Frontelli being removed.
08:23She was the director of the Naval Operations, a lady officer there.
08:28You've seen General James Cliff, the Vice Chief of the Air Force, removed.
08:33You've seen Vice-Admiral Shansnach Chatfield, a lady officer who was in NATO being removed.
08:40You've seen General Tim Hogg, who headed the cyber, you know, wing.
08:44He was removed.
08:44And there have been many others who've been so-called purged or removed or asked to put in their papers
08:51or dismissed by this administration.
08:56There's also been, you know, imposition of a cut, 20% cut for four-star officers and 10% in
09:03flag ranks.
09:04Now, General Randy George, so to say, comes down to him.
09:09He's a highly regarded professional.
09:11Now, please excuse me, sir.
09:19He was appointed in September 23, and he's considered midway through his tenure.
09:25He served in the Gulf.
09:26He served in Iraq.
09:27He served in Afghanistan.
09:29And before this, he was the Vice Chief.
09:32He's commanded four infantry division, one of one airborne division.
09:39So, you know, he's very, very clear in, I mean, he's highly regarded professionally.
09:45You saw the, when he put in his papers, West Point, from where he's a graduate, came out in a
09:52very strong tweet in supporting him.
09:55And they said, through candid insight and experience, you know, he's led the army well, sir.
10:03And surprisingly, I'll say naturally, to a degree, a lot of Republican senators supported General Randy George.
10:13And they wondered why he's being removed.
10:15So, is this some sort of internal rift being seen?
10:19So, these are the questions that have come up.
10:21These are the questions that need to be thought about.
10:24These need to be seen.
10:27Some people are saying there are two theories during the round as to why he was removed.
10:32So, we can discuss those, sir.
10:35Thank you, General Jagadbir.
10:39Now, I cannot help but express that I think in most cases, when generals commanding an army or very senior
10:56generals are removed by the civil administration,
11:00it is one very possible, plausible reason that can be, is that they have expressed something to, in this case,
11:14Trump is the CNC of the US army, having expressed something to Trump, which Trump did not like.
11:30Sir, what you are saying is, I'll ask you, I'll ask you a question.
11:35Can we, can we possibly thank General Randy George for what has happened this morning?
11:49Well, you know, that, that's again a speculation, sir, as to what exactly, no, what exactly the reason was.
11:58So, I definitely think one of the reasons why this ceasefire has taken place could be attributed to the fact
12:07that there was widespread support for the stance General Randy George took amongst the Republican congressmen and senators.
12:17So, I mean, and the American public. So, that's one thing, sir. But the other issue of what they are
12:23talking about as to why he was removed, one is, of course, they had differences in the idea of the
12:29conductor of the war.
12:30And I think that relates more to the manner in which the, whether the army boots on ground or not
12:36should have come into place.
12:38Precisely. Precisely. Precisely, sir. The other, other aspects of what they talk about and that I've read in, in multiple
12:45sources is that there was also a promotion list doing the rounds.
12:50And they were amongst those being promoted. There were some people who are, you can say, black and there were
13:00some women.
13:00So, expected to be loyal, expected to be loyal, expected to be loyal.
13:04Sir, the fact is, sir, they were the expected to be loyal were the 29 who are considered white.
13:12But the others in the list included white men, I should say, were some women officers plus some black officers.
13:22So now those five were now that's actually then you see of the aspect of professionalism versus racism coming in.
13:34And there's another thing that is doing the rounds, but I will not give that much credence is, you know,
13:39flying of an army helicopter over a singer's musician's house, which that guy tweeted he liked.
13:47And then action was taken against the pilots with exit said exonerate the pilots.
13:53So, I mean, that was also doing the rounds.
13:54So, I mean, these are all two, three issues doing the rounds, but I don't think he'd be sacked for
13:59that.
14:00And I feel, you know, like Trump is making this out, was making this out to be a holy war.
14:06So, where does the chaplain come in?
14:09So, naturally, it's got to do more to the conduct of the war than to other things.
14:15That's what my opinion is, my feeling is.
14:19So, this is a very important thing.
14:24And like you said, that couldn't this have led to the end of this war?
14:30Yeah, I think there was a widening internal rift within the Republicans that came to the fore after General Randy
14:38George was sacked.
14:39Now, you at the beginning brought out a very interesting issue and that is of political control or civilian control
14:49of the military.
14:50And you gave a very wonderful example of the 1962 wars.
14:55So, you know, I'll just tell the viewers about that, that at that time, the area of Arunachal Pradesh or
15:05what was known as NIFA at that time, came under 33 Corps, which was located in Shillong.
15:11So, at that time, the Army Corps commander of 33 Corps was left in General Umrah Singh.
15:16And left in General Umrah Singh was opposed to the manner in which the deployment was to take place, particularly
15:22on the troops being at the lower ground in the Thagla Ridge.
15:27And then, you know, history is there, sir, that 33 Corps was, he, the operational responsibility of 33 Corps was
15:38bifurcated.
15:38Four Corps was raised, General BM Corps raised the Corps, 33 Corps were given the responsibility of what is now
15:47Sikkim and that area, sir.
15:49So, I mean, things happen, things change.
15:52And he remained in Shillong, though, till later on the headquarters shifted and the four Corps headquarters came up in
15:58Thaispur.
15:58So, that's what happened at that time.
16:01And so, these issues of civilian control versus military over the military and how it should take place, you know,
16:11this has been a matter of immense study, immense debate, immense analysis.
16:17And amongst the most seminal books which have been written on this is the book by Samuel Huntington, you know,
16:25his book, Soldier and the State.
16:27And at times, people say it's a book which is a seminal book on par, if not better than his
16:35famous book, you know, Clash of Civilization.
16:40And, you know, in our case, we have also had an opposite situation, where in 1971, the then Prime Minister
16:53Indira Gandhi heard out the then Chief, then General and later Field Marshal Sam Manikshar.
17:03And as Manikshar said, my aim is to win this war.
17:09And he gave out his reasons, she heard him and she went with his, this thing.
17:17And we, look at the result.
17:21We were able to.
17:22Absolutely, absolutely, sir.
17:23That was a remarkable time of civil military fusion.
17:27The army chief at that time, General Manikshar, he listed out his reasons very clearly, very categorically.
17:34And amongst the reasons he listed out was, you know, the fact of the mobilizing of troops, getting everybody to
17:42the east,
17:43the requirement of trains which would affect, you know, moving of food within India.
17:49And that would result in the problems of food scarcity.
17:54Then he talked of the window before the, for monsoons.
17:58He wanted to do it post the monsoons.
18:00He wanted to do it when the northern passes were closed.
18:03He wanted to do it when we had gathered enough international support in our favor.
18:10And he wanted to prepare the military and that's all history.
18:14And at that time, he was willing to put down his, you know, he said, if you don't want me,
18:20change me, get somebody else.
18:22Words to that effect.
18:23But you also had in, in, in war, you also had, you know, the structure of the armed forces, structure
18:30of everything is in such a manner that,
18:33you know, you, it's designed to accommodate disagreement, designed to accommodate debates, designed to accommodate going.
18:41And we've had two famous cases, even in wars.
18:45Now, since you're talking 62, we talked about 65.
18:50It's a very famous case of General Harbaq and the army chiefs at that time, General Jay and Chaudhury.
18:57And how they, you know, had differences of opinion and whether to fall back to Bayaz or to fight ahead
19:03at where they did finally.
19:05And where the destruction of the Pakistan Armored Division took place at Khemkaran, which was a very famous battle,
19:13which was again fought by that time, 2nd Independent Armored Brigade, led by Brigadier Theogras,
19:21which had, you know, 3rd Cavalry and Deccan Horse, both their COs.
19:27No, certainly.
19:29They got Mavi Chakras in that.
19:30So that, that is another.
19:32And the third example you have is, again, I'll take you back to Bangladesh.
19:36And that was 4 Corps under General Sahaj Singh, sir.
19:41When he made that thrust towards Dhaka, crossing the Meghna, identified it.
19:47Whereas initially they were not planning to go to Dhaka.
19:50Now, in hindsight, the Dhaka, the correct center of gravity, the falling of Dhaka resulted in the surrender of the
20:01Pakistan army,
20:03which was operating there at that time.
20:05So these are all historical things.
20:08So you're right in a way.
20:11Now, coming back to the situation in between U.S. forces and Iran, look at their losses.
20:25Look at the losses of U.S. forces.
20:30A couple of ships at least, aircraft, helicopters.
20:35This, again, you know, brings out the, I'm sure this, I mean, I'm maybe going by my hunch.
20:46But if you look at, you know, the pattern of what things, how things have turned out,
20:52there is a very strong possibility that, you know, there were senior officers in the U.S. army
21:03who were bringing out what the, you know, what the threats are, what the risks are.
21:11And, you know, Mr. Donald Trump, he's not very easy to convince, you know,
21:21he's someone who thinks his own opinion is the best and matters most.
21:29You're right about that, sir.
21:31That happens at all times.
21:34And there have been losses.
21:36Both sides have suffered losses.
21:38Both sides have suffered considerable losses.
21:41In fact, the very, the very estimation of Iran's strength in, in, in every way,
21:50in, you know, in the, in the, they thought this would be cakewalk, Mr. Trump's impression.
21:59Unfortunately, unfortunately, they were lulled into, you know, a sense of euphoria
22:04by what happened in Venezuela.
22:06Venezuela.
22:06So, they tried to pick the same template.
22:09They tried to pick the same template, apply it in Iran.
22:12They had, you know, surprisingly, the 12-day war that took place in June.
22:17At that time, they said, we've destroyed their nuclear capability,
22:21bombed them back in time.
22:22Whereas, now again, you start, launch a campaign.
22:26And now they felt that the, the first day they launched the strike to kill the Supreme
22:32Leader of Iran, Ayatollah Khamenei.
22:35Now, in spite of his death, what they saw, instead of the break-up of Iran,
22:42they got together.
22:43They all got together.
22:45So, that spirit of nationalism was there.
22:50But, no, even if you say Mushtaba is not alive, but what is alive is a decision-making body,
23:00which is, and which is a decision-making and a planning body, you know.
23:07Exactly what I'm, I wanted to, now you can link the two, sir.
23:11Like, even if in the hierarchy, you know, you've seen Iran is still functioning in a manner.
23:17We don't know how, but they are functioning.
23:19In spite of the leadership not being there.
23:21Same way in the services, even if you remove the person on top, you know, we,
23:26the disruption doesn't take place to the degree that everything will stop working.
23:31Because there's a certain amount of institutional stability in the armed forces.
23:37And the structure of the armed forces is much greater than the one single person at any place,
23:45at any point.
23:46So, your overall organization is structured much there, much higher.
23:51And you have institutional stability.
23:53And that is always intact.
23:56And even within the armed forces, sir, the expertise is distributed across ranks,
24:03across appointments, across, you know, up and down.
24:06So, even the person who's leading it, he's surrounded by people who are there to give him advice
24:12and who are competent to step into issues when required.
24:16And people who are there to, you know, the entire system is intact.
24:20But what happens is, after a time, there is an erosion in the value system of the forces.
24:27That's what is the most dangerous thing.
24:30They will combat this war.
24:33They will get over it.
24:34They'll be fight.
24:34But what is the lesson they're giving for the future is the issue which is greater,
24:40which needs to be deliberated, which needs to be thought.
24:43Because in anything, sir, as I mentioned earlier, in any, you have to encourage debate.
24:51You have to accommodate different viewpoints.
24:54And that is something that comes up.
24:56So, I mean, you cannot have one singular viewpoint.
25:01It has to be a consensus, though, in the army is, once a decision is taken,
25:07it's then implemented in a particular manner.
25:10But there's a democratic process to arrive at that decision.
25:13But before decisions are taken, enough, you know, there should be enough deliberation.
25:19So, we don't want to see deliberation and the opening of, keeping, you know,
25:29windows open to take on any, you know, relevant points that can come up in favor of a particular move
25:39or against.
25:41Absolutely, sir. That's exactly the fact.
25:44So, that is why this event is concerning.
25:46It isn't going to have an immediate impact on the war.
25:49The next person who's taking over, he'll be equally competent.
25:53General Christopher Lennie has taken over.
25:55He's equally competent.
25:57There's no denying that, sir.
25:58So, you know, but how much he bends to the political hierarchy, that is the question, sir.
26:09You see, the trouble here is that the political hierarchy is aiming for something which is,
26:17okay, let's forget about the moral aspects.
26:21The, there are, it's a, it's an unnecessary war, you know, it's a war which.
26:29Yes, yes. I mean, there's no doubt.
26:32And one which will destroy the valuable, valuable energy.
26:41Yes, I mean, you see critical infrastructures being targeted,
26:45energy is being hit and the effect of the war.
26:49You see, I, you compare the other wars that took place.
26:53Korea, it was isolated in one area.
26:56Vietnam was isolated in another area.
27:00The 73 war had a ripple effect across the world because the oil prices went up.
27:07The oil took place.
27:08Ukraine has again been isolated.
27:11Iraq, to a degree, you, they suffered at that time, oil prices went up, whatever.
27:17But then there were other sources of oil.
27:20But now, today, with the closure of the Gulf of Horbush, the energy prices have gone up.
27:27There are other aspects.
27:28Fertilizer shortages are there.
27:31Sulfuric acid shortage is there.
27:33Critical infrastructures being hit in the Gulf.
27:35The Gulf, the Gulf, which was sought to be, you know, absolutely a safe haven, now is no longer that.
27:42So, and the effect is being felt, right, not only in its neighborhood, but across the globe.
27:51Petrol is being rationed in countries.
27:54Prices are going up.
27:56Inflation is going up.
27:57The dollar is strengthening.
27:59The value of currencies is dropping.
28:01Now, look at India, just for example, today, your rupee is in the 90s.
28:11It was never that high earlier.
28:13You've reached.
28:14People are even talking of a rupee to 100 rupees to a dollar.
28:19That's one thing.
28:19After that, the same time, the price of oil, crude, which was 70 rupees, has gone up.
28:2670 dollars, it crossed over 100 dollars.
28:30If this war had continued, it would have crossed 150.
28:34Now, at a rupee, which is weaker, buying the same amount of dollars, your rupee, the value goes up for
28:42a country like India.
28:43Then there are problems in supply.
28:46There are problems which will affect industry.
28:48Then the inflation will go up.
28:49So, all these have ripple effects.
28:52And this war, you know, we, one minute we say, we are globally interconnected world.
28:57Now, this is what happens when a globally interconnected world is at odds within itself.
29:03So, these problems magnify and they affect everybody.
29:07So, it's not only the immediate, that is, Iran, Israel and the Gulf states, which are being, facing the problem.
29:17U.S. is putting, pumping money into the economy to sustain this conflict.
29:22But even countries around are suffering.
29:24So, that is what I'd like to say.
29:26No doubt.
29:27No doubt.
29:29I must thank you for bringing out a whole lot of points, you know, which are of great relevance at
29:36this time.
29:37And, all one can say before we wind up is that one hopes that, though I'm sure there are, you
29:48know, officers, senior officers in the U.S. Army who must have brought out the pitfalls of whatever is, you
29:57know, some of the moves that have been made and which have bombed, which have, you know, misfired.
30:01And one can only hope that what they said haunts the political leadership enough for this war to stop.
30:17One can only hope that one can only hope that one can only hope that the ceasefire sustain and the
30:24long-term, you know, issues get resolved.
30:27That is more important than the moment.
30:29Yes, absolutely, absolutely.
30:32And thanks a lot and all the best.
30:37Thank you, sir.
30:38Jai Hind.
30:39And it was indeed a privilege and honor for me to have been called on this and interacting with you,
30:45sir.
30:45Thank you once again, sir.
30:47Pleasure is all.
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