- 6 months ago
Congress MP and Chairperson of the Standing Committee on External Affairs, Shashi Tharoor, discusses the consequences of the West Asia conflict on India.
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00:00And my first special guest in our continuing coverage on the West Asia conflict is none other than Shashi Tharoor.
00:08He is, of course, chairperson of the Standing Committee on External Affairs, seasoned diplomat and member of parliament.
00:13Appreciate your joining us, Dr. Tharoor.
00:16Your first take, a big takeaway for what's happened now with a week into the war.
00:22Do you believe that this war is now becoming increasingly an escalating conflict that could get other countries, including India,
00:32in some way or the other within its ambit?
00:34No, I don't think we're going to get in any case dragged into the conflict.
00:39But what's happening is the consequences of the conflict are already affecting us and many other countries besides.
00:45Because what's happening right now is that oil prices have already started spiking.
00:50It was about $65 per barrel before the war started.
00:55It's already up at $83 when I last checked and maybe climbing further.
01:00Gas supplies. Qatar is one of the world's leading gas suppliers.
01:03They've declared force majeure, which means they are out of all their contracts.
01:08Factories from India to Korea are going to suddenly find themselves without gas.
01:13There are some very serious consequences affecting people already because of this war.
01:18And we've already had people affected because of the closure of airports in the Gulf, travelers being stranded, others being
01:25unable to move, businesses being affected, people working from home.
01:29I mean, lives all around.
01:31We are a country with 9 to 10 million of our nationals in the Gulf.
01:34For us, this is something that really does affect their lives and their ability to do well, send remittances home,
01:41all of that.
01:41So we can't be indifferent.
01:44It is very much in our interest to demand de-escalation and diplomacy.
01:49No question about that.
01:51But when you speak of getting involved, I don't think we mean it militarily.
01:55There would be no reason for any other country to enter a conflict because that would simply prolong it.
02:00No, when I say India's involvement, I mean in terms of the fact that India will in some way or
02:07the other face the repercussions of what's happening in West Asia,
02:11both the large number of Indians who live in the region as well as, as you said, energy security.
02:17But therefore, what role precisely do you see Shashitharoor India playing?
02:22Because your own party, the Congress has once again raised questions over strategic autonomy because the United States is saying
02:30they will allow India to have a 30-day waiver when it comes to purchases of oil from Russia.
02:36Your own party seems to suggest that this is India's strategic autonomy being diluted by Washington.
02:43Washington playing the big bully or the superpower in a way.
02:46Do you agree that India, in a way, needs to send a tougher message to Washington that, look, we are
02:52not going to follow your dictates?
02:54Well, the problem is the consequences if we don't.
02:57I think that for the companies that are purchasing Russian oil and putting it into their refineries, without that waiver,
03:05they get subject to sanctions which affect all their businesses.
03:07So there is, to my mind, a choice that has to be made.
03:12There is no doubt that the sanctions imposed by the U.S. and indeed by the EU have not received
03:20any authorization from the U.N. Security Council.
03:23And therefore, there are sanctions by individual countries.
03:26They don't have the sanctity of international law.
03:28But at the same time, you have to be realistic.
03:32If the sanctions mean that your companies will risk being frozen out of the world markets, frozen out of the
03:38American or European markets, then you won't want to buy Russian oil because your companies have an interest in being
03:44able to function that way.
03:46And for those reasons, I think you must understand that it is imperative for these companies to heed the sanctions.
03:54And the waiver will have come as a big relief to them.
03:57With that waiver, they can openly purchase for those 30 days, knowing that those purchases will be exempt from any
04:04negative consequences for their companies.
04:07But in a way, is this all now boiling down to America playing the big bully, Israel wanting dominant power
04:15over West Asia?
04:16And Iran, in a way, also having a regime that's battling for its life.
04:23How do you see this in the context of the power politics that's playing out in the region?
04:32Do you believe that this is a just war, as the United States, Donald Trump reiterated today?
04:40Look, the tenets of international law are very clear that there is no justification for using force against a sovereign
04:48member state of the UN, except in self-defense, which cannot be invoked in this particular case, or with Security
04:55Council authorization, which does not exist in this case.
04:59The logic of preemptive self-defense, which is something that has been cited by apologists for this war, saying that
05:06if we hadn't done it, the Iranians would have developed a nuclear weapon and attacked us first.
05:12That preemptive logic doesn't really hold up when the Omani negotiators, who've been mediating talks between the Americans and the
05:20Iranians, claim that the Iranians had already agreed to no nukes, zero enriched uranium stockpiles, and other steps that would
05:30have essentially eliminated the threat of a nuclear weapon from Iran.
05:35The only thing that was delaying the conclusion of those negotiations was Iran wanted, in return for those assurances, to
05:42receive structured sanctions relief from the West.
05:46Because, as you know, Iranian oil is already sanctioned by the West, and we, for example, have stopped buying Iranian
05:52oil because of that, just as we are under pressure to stop buying Russian oil now.
05:56So those sanctions were a potent force already before all of this, and that's something that we can't afford to
06:04ignore.
06:04So should we have reiterated that principle that you just spoke about, about territorial sovereignty, about the fact that you
06:13can't just go into another country and assassinate its head of state, its religious head?
06:20Do you believe that India should be drawing certain red lines, or it's best done through quiet diplomacy rather than
06:26making any pronouncements?
06:28Look, that's a call each individual government has to take.
06:32As you may have seen, very few governments have had the courage to stand up and condemn the American action.
06:38Of course, countries in the Arab and Islamic world, to some degree, have done so.
06:43Not all of them, but some have.
06:45And in the Western world, Spain, I think, is pretty much alone in saying this was an illegal and unjustified
06:51action.
06:52Many other countries have felt that condemning this war would put them on the wrong side of a U.S.
06:58government,
06:59which has not hesitated to show its displeasure in ways that have really hurt many countries.
07:05So do you agree with that?
07:06Do you agree with that position that we should not be seen to antagonize the Trump administration?
07:11Is Donald Trump arrogating for himself the right to decide which country he's going to invade?
07:15One day it's Venezuela, one day it's Iran, and here he's got Israel driving it.
07:20Do you believe that we should be standing for certain principles or not?
07:24Radheem, I've said this in the past, that we do have, we have always stood for certain principles in world
07:30affairs.
07:31The Punch Shield Doctrine enunciates all these principles also.
07:35The United States Charter does so.
07:38But there are 193 countries which could say it.
07:41How many of them have stood up and said it?
07:42And why don't they do so?
07:44Because they have made a calculation, which is a prerogative of a sovereign government,
07:48that they have bigger fish to fry, they have bigger interests at stake in these relationships,
07:52and that if the price of articulating such a principled condemnation of the American action
07:59is that they will antagonize an America they feel they can't afford to antagonize on other issues,
08:05then as a government they can decide not to do this.
08:08Look, we took the same line on Russia.
08:10You remember that in Parliament, when the Russians invaded Ukraine,
08:14I criticized the government of India for not articulating these principles and condemning the Russian invasion.
08:19A couple of years later, when our Prime Minister went to Moscow and hugged President Putin
08:24and went to Kiev two weeks later and hugged President Zelensky,
08:28I had to admit that his silence turned out of the strategic benefit that we were able
08:33to keep open channels of communication to both sides in that conflict.
08:37So you have to, it's difficult for us sitting outside a government to guess their choices.
08:43No, no, but that's precisely the question, if I may push you, but that's precisely the question.
08:47Your own party today is saying government has ceded its strategic autonomy.
08:50Do you agree with that?
08:52Or do you believe that the government retains the choices that it must make in situations like that,
08:58whether we should condole Ali Khamina's death, whether we should speak out against an Iranian warship
09:06that has been sunk in Indian Ocean?
09:08Are these decisions best left to government?
09:10Or do you believe the opposition has the right to say that strategic autonomy is being eroded,
09:15that the Narendra Modi government is surrendering, to use the words of Rahul Gandhi?
09:19Rahul Gandhi, the opposition's job is to oppose.
09:21And I have no doubt that if we had been in the government and had taken the choice that this
09:25government has now taken, they in the opposition would have said the same thing to us.
09:29That is how democracies work.
09:31I don't think that right now sitting here and looking at that in that context is particularly relevant.
09:39It's a question of how we can protect our national interests.
09:44Sovereign autonomy is a means of protecting our national interests.
09:47I will say, however, that expressing condolences on the assassination of a head of state is a normal thing to
09:54do.
09:54And I'm very glad that our government has expressed those condolences.
09:57And the foreign secretary was sent to the Iranian embassy to sign the official book of condolences.
10:02That is the right thing to do.
10:03And I will say that as far as the courtesies and between states are concerned,
10:10don't forget that we have full diplomatic relations with Iran.
10:14There's an ambassador here.
10:16And our foreign minister telephoned his Iranian counterpart while he also spoke to his Israeli counterpart.
10:22This is India trying to show that they've got channels of communication open to both countries.
10:27And I think you really have to respect the choices the government has made as choices that they deem at
10:35that point to be in the best interest of India,
10:39given that there would be consequences for other choices.
10:43Look, at the end of the day, Rajdeep, we in the opposition will always have reason to criticize.
10:49We attacked the government when 50 percent tariffs were imposed on us.
10:54We've attacked the government when other decisions were made by other countries.
11:01So when our government does something to prevent that kind of retaliation from those countries,
11:08when we attack, we're being the opposition.
11:10And that's right.
11:11That's how democracies function.
11:13But I don't think that's the real issue here.
11:15The real issue is the first question you asked.
11:18How is India affected?
11:19What is India's interest?
11:20And I would say to you, India's interest is in ending this war as soon as possible.
11:25And if we get more influence on those who are conducting this war by not condemning them publicly,
11:32then that is something that we might want to do when we're in government.
11:36And we might not want to do when we're in opposition.
11:39Which brings me to my final question.
11:40When you say ending the war, you spend a long time of your diplomatic career at the United Nations.
11:45The United Nations seems powerless to stop this war.
11:48All multilateralism seems to have evaporated.
11:51And it seems that the United States has arrogated, as I said, to itself the right to decide how this
11:58war is to be conducted.
11:59Donald Trump today is saying that he expects an unconditional surrender from Iran and a regime change of preferably his
12:06choice.
12:07Where does this leave the world and the United Nations?
12:10Conflicts seem impossible to resolve, whether it's Ukraine, Iran, or indeed earlier Gaza.
12:15Do you believe the United Nations is completely powerless, important, and defunct now?
12:20Well, let's not go quite that far, because there's more to the UN than one particular conflict.
12:24But in terms of conflict resolution?
12:28Let me say, Rajdeep, first of all, we are going through a crisis when it comes to international law, because
12:34the fact is that the whole premise of international law and the world order that was established after the Second
12:38World War was that power would be tamed by law, would be subject to law, and that any use of
12:45power would have to be justified in terms of law.
12:48That has been cast to the winds in recent years by many players, Russia's violation of international law in attacking
12:55Ukraine, America's violation of international law in attacking Iraq in 2003, and now attacking Iran.
13:02I mean, the truth is there have been violations.
13:04Israel has violated many principles of international law in its campaign in Gaza.
13:08So the fact is, international law is now being buffeted about by those who have the power to disregard its
13:15consequences.
13:16Does that mean the UN is out of the window?
13:19No.
13:19It means that in situations where member states that are powerful enough, that either are permanent members of the Security
13:25Council or enjoy the protection of permanent members of the Security Council, when they take certain steps, the UN cannot
13:32stop them because the Security Council has that structure.
13:36But that doesn't mean that the law ceases to be irrelevant.
13:39It means that we acknowledge that it is being disregarded in this particular context.
13:45We try and live with the consequences to the extent we have to, but we try and reclaim that ground
13:51when this conflict is over so that the next crisis will not lead to this kind of violation.
13:58The UN is the only, literally the only organization in the world that collects all the countries of the world
14:04together on one forum to discuss these global issues.
14:08We can't afford to jettison it.
14:10It's not doing very well on this particular issue.
14:13It can be of use to India and to the rest of the world and various other issues.
14:16Let's not discard the UN over this crisis, but let us admit it is not, it is congenitally, chronically unable
14:25to act in a situation where a permanent member is on the warpath.
14:30May I ask you one final question on this, which is that do you sense, based on the last week,
14:34have we tilted too far towards placating the Israel-American axis at the cost of Iran?
14:40Do you believe that we need to therefore maintain a much tighter balance given our interests in the region?
14:46Or do you believe that we need to be seen to be the, with the winning side, as some call
14:51it, with the more powerful side?
14:52Do you believe that we've tilted far too much towards Israel and America or not?
14:57Well, we have not applauded this action.
14:59We have not endorsed this action.
15:02So in that sense...
15:03But we've not condemned it either.
15:04We have not condemned it either.
15:06Similarly, we have kept open lines of communication to Iran, and we have expressed a hope that matters will be
15:13resolved very quickly.
15:14That seems to be the choice that we have made.
15:16Now, you could ask yourself, why not condemn it?
15:19The question is, we condemn it.
15:20What good does it do to Iran?
15:22Are we going to send them weapons?
15:23We're not.
15:24Are we going to support them in the conflict?
15:25We're not.
15:26So the condemnation is cheap.
15:28It's words.
15:29But in the process, do we lose leverage over the West?
15:33Do we lose leverage over the U.S.?
15:35Look at other countries in an analogous situation of the silences they've kept.
15:39I mean, you have to understand, Rajdeep, academics, journalists, and outsiders can always take a stand of principle.
15:47I've articulated the principles for you.
15:49But as a government, what does the Indian government need to do to ensure that there are no consequences from
15:56the stand it takes for the people of India and the interests of India?
15:59If I were in government or advising government, those are the questions that would be uppermost in my mind, too.
16:04So I find it difficult to sit here outside the government and say, I want the government to say all
16:11these things because the government then has to live with the consequences.
16:14And if the consequences are going to get 50 percent sanctions again on India, then my job as opposition would
16:19be to say, look at this hopeless government.
16:21They've given us 50 percent sanctions once more.
16:23So you have to understand, governments make choices all the time.
16:26And we, as an alternative party of government, we also have to think about what we would do if we
16:35were in power.
16:36I think there's a message in what you've said, both for the government and indeed for your own party and
16:40the opposition.
16:41But Shashi Tharoor, for joining me ahead of your 70th birthday, I know you turned 70 on the 9th of
16:47March.
16:48I don't want to remind you about that, but I know that you've got a big couple of days coming
16:53up.
16:53I've just been launching Dr. Karan Singh's biography and he turns 95 on the 9th of March.
16:59So we have a quarter of a century between us and it's been fascinating.
17:02It's a great date.
17:03And since you're a cricket fan, I believe the wicketkeeper Parthiv Patel also shares that birthday with us.
17:08Well, speaking about cricket and Shashi Tharoor at the moment, Sanju Samson is probably the most popular Thiruvannanthapuramite, if I
17:19may call it, ahead of you, Dr. Tharoor.
17:21And I hope that...
17:22I'm happy to yield place to him.
17:24Let him continue earning that on Sunday too.
17:26Okay.
17:27Thank you very much, Shashi Tharoor, for joining me here on the news today.
17:31All the best.
17:32Thanks, Saji.
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