00:00Okay, so let's raise the first big question on our talking point.
00:04Are America and Iran back at war?
00:06What are India's options now, given the fact that our sailors have lost their lives?
00:11How should the government handle Donald Trump?
00:14Do we need to send a strong message to him?
00:16And what next in the West Asia War?
00:18Two special guests joining us.
00:20Major Mike Lyons joins me from the United States.
00:23U.S. Army Major and Military Analyst from New York City.
00:25And Casey Singh, former ambassador, is also with us.
00:30Appreciate both of you joining us.
00:32Major Lyons, make sense of what we've heard from Donald Trump today.
00:36He's saying he's going to bomb Iran tonight.
00:38He's even threatening to take Khark Island and destroy Iran's oil economy.
00:44All of this while allegedly negotiations are on for a truce.
00:48A ceasefire is supposedly in place.
00:51Can ceasefire and bombings coexist?
00:55Well, as the president said, this was the most violated ceasefire in the history of all ceasefires.
01:00And in order to restore some level of deterrence, given the fact that the Iranians downed an American Apache helicopter,
01:06the president has to do something.
01:08And I think it's smart.
01:10I think now is the time to turn on what I'll call a dimmer switch and not a sledgehammer.
01:14There's no reason to go back to an epic fury type operation of 900 to 1,000 sorties a day
01:20and a very large air campaign.
01:22However, there are military targets and there are targets inside of Iran that would put a lot of pressure on
01:28the IRGC, take away their revenue capability.
01:31As mentioned, Khark Island is one of them.
01:32If the president can do something to take out the capability of Khark Island, I think it would put tremendous
01:37pressure on the Iranians to come back to the negotiation table, which is what the president wants to do.
01:46But where does it leave the ceasefire of April 8th?
01:49I mean, the ceasefire therefore seems in tatters.
01:51We are seemingly back into escalating hostilities.
01:56Yeah, I don't disagree.
01:57I don't think that that's something that the president, again, we've got a military would call this a siege.
02:04Right now, the Iranians are surrounded.
02:06They're blockaded.
02:06They really can't do anything.
02:08And so from a military perspective, if we start to take out certain capability there and erode their ability, again,
02:16to generate revenue, that might get them back to the peace table.
02:20The Iranians have tried to tie this to Hezbollah.
02:22They've tried to tie it to a lot of different things.
02:24Right now, Donald Trump's out of patience.
02:26And so because of that, you're going to see the military increase there.
02:29Think of it as a dimmer switch, though.
02:31It's not going to be a sledgehammer.
02:32You won't see large-scale attacks, but you'll see very precise military-related targets and infrastructure in order to keep
02:39them from generating revenue.
02:44Of course, the worry, Casey Singh, is that as you're hearing from major lions, that this is the U.S.
02:50president now using force in a way to get Iran back, he says, to the negotiating table.
02:55But in the process, India is getting caught in the crossfire.
02:58Three attacks in three days.
03:00Three Indian sailors dead.
03:02India has summoned a senior U.S. diplomat.
03:05But we really haven't been able to send a strong enough message to Donald Trump that, you know, countries like
03:10India are going to get caught in the crossfire if this conflict keeps escalating.
03:17Yes, I think it's been very clear that India is really in the UAE-Israel-U.S. corner in this.
03:24And that's why the only country the prime minister has recently visited is the UAE.
03:29So, you know, that neutrality is no longer there.
03:33And I don't think the government's trying to hide it.
03:36Now, the question is, when you're caught in the middle, but we are also probably getting oil from Iran or
03:44from other places, and that's where then, when you're in the middle of a crossfire, you get caught in it.
03:51But there is a reluctance to position ourselves in a more neutral position.
03:56But even calling in the CDA, I think it's a step forward to not think the government has changed its
04:06basic stance of not offending Trump, not taking him on, essentially turning your face the other way and sending silent
04:16messages, using their ambassador.
04:19Defiance has not been there.
04:21And, of course, we are not, we can't defy them like China because the Chinese are.
04:25But what can we do?
04:27But Ambassador Singh, what can we do?
04:32Beyond summoning a U.S. diplomat, what can we do to send a stronger message to Donald Trump?
04:40Well, what you can do is, he's not stopped imposing tariffs.
04:44He's now got, you know, compulsory that we are using enforced labor, and therefore another set of tariffs is coming.
04:53Now you have to make up your mind.
04:54And we keep saying the trade deal is about to come, and it keeps going into the background.
04:59I think we have to take a stand on this.
05:02At some stage, we have to see what is a profit loss of what we are doing, doing a deal
05:07with them.
05:07But then remember, in America itself, the inflation has gone up to 4%.
05:12President Trump is under a lot of pressure domestically.
05:15And for the first time, polls which have been done in America indicate that there is more support for the
05:21Palestinians than for Israel.
05:23It's never happened in American history.
05:25So there is a shift in public opinion.
05:29And the November election is just four months away.
05:31So they should be absolutely, we have to stop being desperate to do a deal with the Americans.
05:37Because you remember last time we did an interim deal, and then the U.S. Supreme Court struck those tariffs
05:42down.
05:42So you have to realize that doing a deal in a hurry is not going to help because things are
05:49not normal within America itself.
05:55You know, Major Lyons, the question, therefore, that arises from there is, given that the public opinion is now firmly
06:02against the war, they do not want this war to be prolonged.
06:05Is Donald Trump, who said this war would end in a few days, now we've gone well over 100 days,
06:11is he under growing pressure to end the war?
06:14Now the president is talking about taking over Karg Island, of escalation in bombings.
06:20I mean, it only seems that the war is going to get further prolonged well into possibly the next month
06:26or so at the very least.
06:28Yeah, I think the president is very steeled about his objective to make sure the Iranians do not have nuclear
06:35weapons.
06:35He's not going to settle for a deal that looked anything like the Obama deal, the JCPOA back from 2015.
06:41I don't think he cares about the polls.
06:43I don't think he is very much forward on getting some kind of visual sign of victory.
06:48Taking Karg Island would be that.
06:49If we landed U.S. troops inside of Karg Island and shut down their capability to generate petro oil and
06:56things that go from there, I think that would be that sign of victory.
06:59This is a situation where America thinks it's on the right side.
07:04Iran has been at war with the United States for 47 years.
07:07It is time to figure this out and settle it right now.
07:09I don't think he cares that people don't think the war is popular or not.
07:12I think he cares it's the right thing to do.
07:18But it's not going to be easy, surely, to take over Karg Island.
07:21And even if they do, the Iranians are not just going to simply sit back and watch it happening.
07:26They could once again try and escalate the entire locus of the conflict, drag in other countries into the conflict.
07:31They're already targeting.
07:33Once again, we've seen drones being hit at U.S. bases across the Gulf.
07:40And if they do, then they'll see an escalation from the United States.
07:43I don't think the original conflict was escalation management to begin with.
07:47I think we put a very significant hit on them during Epic Fury.
07:53And we backed off in order to maintain an infrastructure so they could have some kind of escape.
07:59It's not the United States' interest to totally destroy Iran.
08:01It's not in our interest to do that.
08:03It's not in the world's interest.
08:04We have to give them some kind of bridge in order for them so they could save face and have
08:08some concession.
08:10But if they're not going to take the concession, then the Trump administration is going to keep going until we
08:14figure out what that pressure point is.
08:16If that pressure point's Karg Island, it's Karg Island.
08:19The president says that they want to make a deal right now.
08:21But if the IRGC, who controls Karg Island, doesn't want to make a deal, well, the United States is going
08:26to do what it can to put the pressure on the IRGC.
08:32Given what you're hearing, therefore, Casey Singh, do you fear the Straits of Hormuz closed, the blockade of Iran continuing?
08:39Are we in for a prolonged conflict?
08:42And that is only bad news if this conflict gets prolonged.
08:45Is that now increasingly likely, according to you also?
08:50Look, with Trump, you don't know what is likely, what is unlikely.
08:53He has said we'll hit them very hard.
08:55But he'll also keep talking.
08:56He wants to bring them to the table.
08:58But I think he still not understood Iran.
09:01Because the Iranians put up with all the firing and the rockets and air attacks that Iran and U.S.
09:09inflicted on Iran.
09:10And still Iran was able to hit back.
09:12They were firing missiles.
09:13So what they have said is, if you come to Karg, if you put the boots on the ground, we
09:19will fight them.
09:20And then we will spread the battle all across the region.
09:24Which means you take out their oil facility, they'll take out all the oil facilities in the GCC and beyond.
09:32And which will then create chaos in terms of global oil prices.
09:36Or whatever oil is flowing from Saudi Arabia through the Red Sea and all, even that would stop.
09:40So this, I think that President Trump understands.
09:45He does not want that kind of escalation where already the price rise in America.
09:50You don't want further price rise.
09:53They'll be wiped out in the November elections.
09:55He may say he doesn't care, but his party cares.
09:58And, you know, in the Senate and the Congress, they're already congressmen.
10:03Republicans say certain things have to be done.
10:06And then you've got the Epstein files.
10:08Is he doing it because the Epstein files are again re-emerging?
10:12And there's a danger that all of them will come out.
10:15And I think that always, that seems to be one of the factors in his mind somewhere.
10:25I'm going to leave it there.
10:26Clearly, these are worrying times and worrying signals once again coming from the conflict zone in West Asia.
10:33But to shed more light on it, I appreciate Major Lyons and Casey Singh for joining me on the show
10:39tonight.
10:40Thank you very much.
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