00:00What's around Alaska right now is the key.
00:02This is the deciding factor on how the storm's going to behave.
00:06So we've got some murkiness here out in the Aleutians, far southwest Alaska, down along sea level.
00:12We've got some rain and some mountain snow out there, and it's murky.
00:15That is where there's a disturbance, a little bit south of there.
00:19This swirl of energy in the atmosphere, this little guy here, that's going to be entering the northwestern U.S.
00:26this weekend,
00:26and in the early to mid part of the weekend.
00:28That's going to probably contort the jet stream some, and if it kind of torques things enough,
00:33then we would be dealing with a storm that could come farther north.
00:36The main driver, though, is actually this guy here.
00:38This is the primary low-pressure system that's going to go southeast.
00:42It's going to go around the bottom of California and then emerge into Arizona and New Mexico
00:47and then eventually enter the southern plains.
00:50And, again, one scenario is that it just moves farther east, goes out to sea.
00:54We get thunderstorms, drought relief, and some severe thunderstorms in the southeast
00:57with the jet stream kind of suppressing things.
01:00Now, there is still the potential for the jet stream in the northern branch
01:04to basically just contort itself a little farther north because of that disturbance moving into the northwest.
01:11And that would allow the storm to track farther north.
01:14If that happens, that opens the door for snow for some.
01:17Regardless, there's going to be plenty of gulf moisture streaming north, plenty of fuel for this to bring some drought
01:22relief
01:22and even severe thunderstorms Saturday and Sunday in the south.
01:25And there's some chilly air in place across the northeast.
01:28So the northernmost scenario could allow for snow.
01:31Central Pennsylvania to Boston.
01:33Boston could see several inches if that were to happen.
01:36But, again, we're going to show you an example of one model depiction, kind of a made-for-TV model,
01:41future radar and clouds.
01:43That brings that disturbance south of California.
01:45Here it comes into the Four Corners region, pressing pause Saturday.
01:49This moves east.
01:50Jet stream energy comes in from the northeast Pacific.
01:53And, again, how that interacts with the overall flow will determine if this system can come farther north
01:59or if it stays south.
02:00This scenario here at face value would be the no-snow solution, mainly just rain and out to sea,
02:06and that would be it.
02:07Regardless, one thing that we're very confident in is the flood risk here
02:11and the meaningful drought relief that's going to come to many areas across the south.
02:15The severe weather risk on Saturday, east Texas to Mississippi and in between.
02:20And then on Sunday we take a big step east into southern Alabama, south Georgia, north Florida.
02:24Damaging winds, isolated tornadoes, but also some locally heavy rain.
02:27Damaging winds, isolated tornadoes, but also some locally heavy rain.
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