00:00it's looking less and less likely. That's very true. The southern track may be what wins out
00:04here. The door's not shut farther north yet. We need to keep an eye out for two different scenarios
00:09for the weekend storm. But what we are confident in is this dark green zone, thunderstorms,
00:14drought relief coming to the southeast. You're going to get some rain tomorrow. You're going
00:17to get a lot more this weekend, one to two inches for most of us this weekend, locally more.
00:22The question marks exist up here near Interstate 64. Are we going to see a little bit of snow on
00:27the north side? Well, we'll talk about that. But as we dig into the weekend storm system,
00:31here we are. And scenario number one here, which a lot of the recent modeling is favoring here,
00:37is kind of the almost directly west to east track with a dip in the jet stream across the east.
00:43If you're into at least betting, I'm not a betting person, but if you are, I wouldn't bet against the
00:49cold this winter. Just time and time again, it has proved itself to be what has held into the
00:55northeast. And at times when it looks like there's a warm-up coming, the cold tends to
01:00overperform. There is still the chance that perhaps the jet stream will lift far enough north that
01:05the storm track will come farther north. This would be a warmer scenario. It would also bring
01:10some snow to the far interior mid-Atlantic and parts of the interior northeast. But again,
01:14we're kind of hedging our forecast a little more south here with every passing day. And again,
01:20chilly flow across the New England states will probably help to reinforce the position of the
01:24jet stream here. They work hand-in-hand, somewhat of a chicken versus the egg thing.
01:27But overall, here's your zone of low pressure. We're very, very confident in gulf moisture
01:33emerging out of the gulf, being in place for this storm system to bring some widespread strong
01:38thunderstorms. So we'll be watching as this moves across the nation here. I double-clicked. We don't
01:43want to do that. I'm going to go back here once more. And we're going to track this storm system
01:46across the southwest. It's bringing the rain to California through Wednesday. It's going to cross the
01:51southern Rockies. You're going to begin to see this a little more robust here on Thursday night,
01:56Friday, and into Saturday. Strong thunderstorms east Texas, southern Arkansas, into Louisiana.
02:01And this depiction of future clouds and radar really is favoring that southern scenario where
02:06you're not seeing much snow on the north side. Strong thunderstorms south Georgia, southeast Alabama,
02:11north Florida on Sunday. And that's it. Out to sea. But there is still the opportunity perhaps for
02:17this to come farther north. And because of that, a lot of this pink zone here, this is the highly
02:22uncertain part of the forecast where we may see if this comes farther north, we could see some snow
02:27and ice into those areas. But we're most confident in the heavy rain, drought relief, one to two inches
02:31of rain for most of us. Somebody out there south of I-20 could conceivably see enough repetitive
02:36thunderstorm activity that we might see more than three or four inches of rain. But the Saturday severe risk,
02:42east Texas, southeast Oklahoma, southern Arkansas, Louisiana, with damaging wind and flash flooding.
02:49And then on Sunday, there is the isolated risk for a tornado or two or three somewhere in south
02:54Alabama, south Georgia, and far north Florida, along with some gusty thunderstorms. So we'll keep a
02:59close eye on this. We're going to be able to speak with a little more confidence in which scenario
03:02plays out tomorrow.
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