00:00It's feeding time here on the forecast feed. We're going to look at some snow. We have
00:04multiple forms of snow. We got lake effect snow. We have two Alberta clippers. One of these is
00:09weakening as it reaches the east coast. One of these is going to strengthen as it reaches the
00:13east coast. And we'll show you why here with some computer model data. And we'll also be looking at
00:17eventually a warming trend that's going to help us out quite a bit after a really cold start to
00:22the month with some areas seeing 10 degree plus temperature departure from the historical
00:30average. In other words, 10 degrees below average so far for the first 10, 11 days of the month.
00:35Very impressive. But that doesn't mean everybody's been seeing the snow. In fact,
00:38as we take a look at what's been going on out there, take a look at this here. Some areas have
00:43seen huge amounts of snow so far for the season. In fact, South Bend, Indiana, after some really
00:47prolific lake effect and a couple of events, we're already at half of our annual average snowfall
00:52there in that part of northern Indiana. Chicago, you're almost at half of your average annual
00:57average. And we typically would see about 4.2 inches by now. We're at 17. Richmond, Virginia,
01:05typically you'd have, well, the average is 0.4 inches. We're at six inches so far. That is
01:10closing in on the historical average for a whole season. With that said, just a trace in Boston,
01:16a trace in New York. Typically, we'd have about an inch and a half to three inches there,
01:20and just a sign of how early it is this season. The one to three inches that we would typically
01:25have by now, that's on the road to 30 to 48 inches in those cities. So let's go back to the
01:32graphics here. And overall, as we take a look at the snow that we're seeing so far,
01:39lake effect in progress for some downwind to the Great Lakes. This is going to be wrapping up here
01:44tonight after a nice six to 12-inch event here in parts of Chautauqua and Cattaraugus counties,
01:50with a little help from Lake Huron. Plus, Lake Erie is the immediate driver there. Widespread snow.
01:56We were looking at some of the webcams in places near Kane, Pennsylvania. Snow-covered streets. We had
02:00snow cover on some streets for a time earlier this morning, all the way across central PA. Slick spots
02:07and other areas into upstate New York as well. Now, there are two clippers. Clipper number one
02:12is in progress. We've got snow falling in many areas. I'm going to make myself disappear there
02:17so you can see the full picture. A lot of the snow is kind of nosing south eastward here into Friday
02:23morning. Snow picking up three to six inches in areas like southern Indiana and into areas near
02:29northwest sections of the Bluegrass region down into Lexington, Frankfurt, and points northwest near
02:34the Kentucky Motor Speedway. And that's going to bring us some snow into the central Appalachians,
02:39southern Appalachians as well. But keep in mind, this one is in a weakening phase as it reaches the
02:43east coast. Why is that? Well, let's go upstairs and we can show you that overall this first
02:50disturbance driving the first clipper of the two, it's a pretty flat wave. And watch as it reaches
02:57areas east of the mountains. It lifts. You can see it weakens. Here it is. And then the next frame
03:03into Saturday morning, it just lifts away. It de-amplifies, if you will. So this is going to be
03:09a storm that really only produces measurable snow in and west of the Appalachian Mountains.
03:16Southern Ohio, West Virginia, Kentucky, you're in on it. Maybe some snow showers east of I-81,
03:20east of the Blue Ridge, maybe a flurry for Virginia Beach. You're not going to see much beyond that.
03:25There it is. It just kind of evaporates. There's the GFS. Here's the NAM. And here is the European.
03:32It's a similar track to the storms back last Friday and this most recent Monday that brought
03:36us accumulating snow into Richmond. But again, it's lifting. The wave is flattening and lifting,
03:42and we're not going to see the same impacts there in Richmond as we did two times earlier in the past
03:46seven days. Now, with that said, there's another system coming. Clipper one moves through. There goes
03:51clipper number one. Clipper number two, this one's very different. It starts similarly, but look at this.
03:57This amplifies and digs as it reaches the I-95. And it's not going to be a long-lasting hit because
04:06it is still kind of progressive. It's moving quickly to the east. Here we are seeing this
04:10continue, this trough. It doesn't quite have a negative northwest to southeast tilt, but it does
04:17tilt neutrally here, almost directly north to south. So that's a strengthening phase because,
04:23remember, it will have been clearly positively tilted, a weaker trough, and then it goes to a
04:29neutral tilt, which is on its way to strengthening maybe a little too late, a little too far east for
04:35a big snow for the east coast. It would be producing pretty good snow maybe if we were 900 miles farther
04:41east of the Jersey Shore. But regardless, it's going to be enough to bring us some accumulating snow
04:47for I-95. Here's the second opinion, the European, and to no surprise, we're into business there. So
04:53while clipper one, clipper one, here it is, doesn't do much east of the Appalachians, clipper number two
04:59does. And here's the GFS. Keep in mind, it's a fast mover, so it won't produce too much snow for too long.
05:07The NAM actually has a pretty good little burst of snow somewhere between Harrisburg, Lebanon, PA,
05:14and areas around Jim Thorpe, and right across Schuylkill County on its way east to Allentown.
05:19That would be kind of an exciting scenario there, and also pretty good snow into New York and Boston.
05:24That's the high-end potential solution. And the European, it's kind of a mix between the,
05:30it's sort of an average here between the GFS, it's actually doing a little better up in southern
05:34parts of Massachusetts than the GFS, and it brings a modest snowfall to New York, Philadelphia,
05:39Baltimore, and D.C., your second snow of the season in Washington, D.C. So we do want to take a look at
05:46model projections of snow. And here is the GFS, pretty slim in Boston, a fraction of an inch in New
05:53York, and about an inch in Philadelphia. Not bad. We saw that exciting NAM solution. Look at this,
05:585.3 inches over Allentown. Do we want to take this literally? Probably not, but it's able to produce
06:033.7 in Philly, 5 in areas like Trenton, 5.9 in Central Park. I wouldn't bank on those numbers,
06:10but that's the high-end potential. And then a very reasonable-looking European, 3 inches in
06:15Philly, 2.6 in Trenton, 2-ish in New York City, 0.7 in Boston. I'm going to get myself out of the
06:23way here so we can quickly see our official snowfall forecast. 1 to 3 inches for the big cities,
06:28hedging toward an inch in Boston, maybe 2, maybe 3 near Philadelphia. Final thing I wanted to show
06:34you before we go. We've had a lot of cold air in place. This is the height, the thickness in the
06:39atmosphere. Look at this. Later next week, Thursday, Friday, we finally warm up. A decent warming trend
06:45coming to the east.
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