One snowstorm to hit the mid-Atlantic and then another to hit the Northeast

AccuWeather

One snowstorm will fizzle out after hitting the Appalachians, but the next one to arrive in the second weekend of December will pick up just as it reaches the Northeast.

Transcript

00:00It's feeding time here on the forecast feed. We're going to look at some snow. We have

00:04multiple forms of snow. We got lake effect snow. We have two Alberta clippers. One of these is

00:09weakening as it reaches the east coast. One of these is going to strengthen as it reaches the

00:13east coast. And we'll show you why here with some computer model data. And we'll also be looking at

00:17eventually a warming trend that's going to help us out quite a bit after a really cold start to

00:22the month with some areas seeing 10 degree plus temperature departure from the historical

00:30average. In other words, 10 degrees below average so far for the first 10, 11 days of the month.

00:35Very impressive. But that doesn't mean everybody's been seeing the snow. In fact,

00:38as we take a look at what's been going on out there, take a look at this here. Some areas have

00:43seen huge amounts of snow so far for the season. In fact, South Bend, Indiana, after some really

00:47prolific lake effect and a couple of events, we're already at half of our annual average snowfall

00:52there in that part of northern Indiana. Chicago, you're almost at half of your average annual

00:57average. And we typically would see about 4.2 inches by now. We're at 17. Richmond, Virginia,

01:05typically you'd have, well, the average is 0.4 inches. We're at six inches so far. That is

01:10closing in on the historical average for a whole season. With that said, just a trace in Boston,

01:16a trace in New York. Typically, we'd have about an inch and a half to three inches there,

01:20and just a sign of how early it is this season. The one to three inches that we would typically

01:25have by now, that's on the road to 30 to 48 inches in those cities. So let's go back to the

01:32graphics here. And overall, as we take a look at the snow that we're seeing so far,

01:39lake effect in progress for some downwind to the Great Lakes. This is going to be wrapping up here

01:44tonight after a nice six to 12-inch event here in parts of Chautauqua and Cattaraugus counties,

01:50with a little help from Lake Huron. Plus, Lake Erie is the immediate driver there. Widespread snow.

01:56We were looking at some of the webcams in places near Kane, Pennsylvania. Snow-covered streets. We had

02:00snow cover on some streets for a time earlier this morning, all the way across central PA. Slick spots

02:07and other areas into upstate New York as well. Now, there are two clippers. Clipper number one

02:12is in progress. We've got snow falling in many areas. I'm going to make myself disappear there

02:17so you can see the full picture. A lot of the snow is kind of nosing south eastward here into Friday

02:23morning. Snow picking up three to six inches in areas like southern Indiana and into areas near

02:29northwest sections of the Bluegrass region down into Lexington, Frankfurt, and points northwest near

02:34the Kentucky Motor Speedway. And that's going to bring us some snow into the central Appalachians,

02:39southern Appalachians as well. But keep in mind, this one is in a weakening phase as it reaches the

02:43east coast. Why is that? Well, let's go upstairs and we can show you that overall this first

02:50disturbance driving the first clipper of the two, it's a pretty flat wave. And watch as it reaches

02:57areas east of the mountains. It lifts. You can see it weakens. Here it is. And then the next frame

03:03into Saturday morning, it just lifts away. It de-amplifies, if you will. So this is going to be

03:09a storm that really only produces measurable snow in and west of the Appalachian Mountains.

03:16Southern Ohio, West Virginia, Kentucky, you're in on it. Maybe some snow showers east of I-81,

03:20east of the Blue Ridge, maybe a flurry for Virginia Beach. You're not going to see much beyond that.

03:25There it is. It just kind of evaporates. There's the GFS. Here's the NAM. And here is the European.

03:32It's a similar track to the storms back last Friday and this most recent Monday that brought

03:36us accumulating snow into Richmond. But again, it's lifting. The wave is flattening and lifting,

03:42and we're not going to see the same impacts there in Richmond as we did two times earlier in the past

03:46seven days. Now, with that said, there's another system coming. Clipper one moves through. There goes

03:51clipper number one. Clipper number two, this one's very different. It starts similarly, but look at this.

03:57This amplifies and digs as it reaches the I-95. And it's not going to be a long-lasting hit because

04:06it is still kind of progressive. It's moving quickly to the east. Here we are seeing this

04:10continue, this trough. It doesn't quite have a negative northwest to southeast tilt, but it does

04:17tilt neutrally here, almost directly north to south. So that's a strengthening phase because,

04:23remember, it will have been clearly positively tilted, a weaker trough, and then it goes to a

04:29neutral tilt, which is on its way to strengthening maybe a little too late, a little too far east for

04:35a big snow for the east coast. It would be producing pretty good snow maybe if we were 900 miles farther

04:41east of the Jersey Shore. But regardless, it's going to be enough to bring us some accumulating snow

04:47for I-95. Here's the second opinion, the European, and to no surprise, we're into business there. So

04:53while clipper one, clipper one, here it is, doesn't do much east of the Appalachians, clipper number two

04:59does. And here's the GFS. Keep in mind, it's a fast mover, so it won't produce too much snow for too long.

05:07The NAM actually has a pretty good little burst of snow somewhere between Harrisburg, Lebanon, PA,

05:14and areas around Jim Thorpe, and right across Schuylkill County on its way east to Allentown.

05:19That would be kind of an exciting scenario there, and also pretty good snow into New York and Boston.

05:24That's the high-end potential solution. And the European, it's kind of a mix between the,

05:30it's sort of an average here between the GFS, it's actually doing a little better up in southern

05:34parts of Massachusetts than the GFS, and it brings a modest snowfall to New York, Philadelphia,

05:39Baltimore, and D.C., your second snow of the season in Washington, D.C. So we do want to take a look at

05:46model projections of snow. And here is the GFS, pretty slim in Boston, a fraction of an inch in New

05:53York, and about an inch in Philadelphia. Not bad. We saw that exciting NAM solution. Look at this,

05:585.3 inches over Allentown. Do we want to take this literally? Probably not, but it's able to produce

06:033.7 in Philly, 5 in areas like Trenton, 5.9 in Central Park. I wouldn't bank on those numbers,

06:10but that's the high-end potential. And then a very reasonable-looking European, 3 inches in

06:15Philly, 2.6 in Trenton, 2-ish in New York City, 0.7 in Boston. I'm going to get myself out of the

06:23way here so we can quickly see our official snowfall forecast. 1 to 3 inches for the big cities,

06:28hedging toward an inch in Boston, maybe 2, maybe 3 near Philadelphia. Final thing I wanted to show

06:34you before we go. We've had a lot of cold air in place. This is the height, the thickness in the

06:39atmosphere. Look at this. Later next week, Thursday, Friday, we finally warm up. A decent warming trend

06:45coming to the east.

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