00:00Looking ahead to a highly anticipated meeting now with the later this Tuesday in Washington
00:05as Donald Trump is scheduled to host Colombian President Gustavo Petro at the White House
00:09to discuss joint efforts to curb drug trafficking and promote bilateral trade.
00:15The two men have had a frayed relationship to say the least.
00:18Leftist President Petro has denounced the U.S. leader for being an accomplice to genocide in the Gaza Strip
00:25while Trump has accused his counterpart of being a drug lord.
00:28The whole dispute even escalating at one point to Trump making threats of a military attack
00:34similar to what happened in neighboring Venezuela.
00:37So let's bring in Tiziano Breda now.
00:39He's the Latin America and Caribbean senior analyst at ACLED.
00:45So Tiziano, thank you for being with us on France 24.
00:49What's at the heart of the tumultuous relationship between Trump and Petro?
00:54Is it just that their politics appear to be at complete polar opposites?
01:01Good morning. Thank you for the invitation.
01:03Well, indeed, the beef, if we want to call it that way, between Petro and Trump have been several files.
01:11Not only the Gaza issue that was mentioned, not only the issue of drugs and the way in which this government has tried to deal with groups that are involved in drug trafficking through negotiations,
01:27but also military pressure, but also in general terms, the approach that the Trump administration has brought to the region
01:35when it comes to a rather more assertive interventionist approach, which Petro, I think, has been one of the most outspoken leaders in the region.
01:46That, for example, has also spoken out about the intervention in Venezuela.
01:52So there have been different, let's say, divergencies that have contributed to this relation sort of being very tense.
02:02So what are you expecting from this meeting?
02:04Could we see some iteration of what we saw early in Trump's second presidency with Zelensky with a dressing down taking place
02:13or actually a more constructive discussions on how to address drug trafficking?
02:19It can really go either way.
02:22I understand that there will not be many public moments or televised moments of that meeting.
02:28So probably the Zelensky kind of moment will be avoided, but nonetheless, very much will depend on how the meeting goes.
02:37I think Petro's utmost priority is to straighten basically Trump's view of the country and his presidency in particular,
02:46when it comes particularly to fighting organized crime for several reasons.
02:51First of all, to maybe revive the military cooperation between the two countries that has been severed by Trump's decision to decertify Colombia as a partner in the fight against crime,
03:03but also to revamp Petro's public image at home, tainted by these multiple sort of divergencies and clashes with Trump.
03:13Also with a view to the election this year, so to try and avoid that Trump sort of interferes with the process and maybe favors a candidate from a different party, from the right.
03:25And finally, probably to ensure that no further action is taken against Petro himself,
03:32given Trump's threats that Petro could follow Maduro's sort of destiny.
03:37At the heart of the divergences, as you said, between the two men is the issue of drug trafficking.
03:44They both have very different approaches as to how to deal with this problem.
03:47The United States much more aggressive, much more towards, you know, the supply side of the equation.
03:55Gustavo Petro trying to have a more maybe progressive approach.
03:59How should we judge Petro's sort of results with regards to the drug trafficking problem in Colombia?
04:07Well, I think there's been quite a disappointment in Colombia and I think within the Petro administration itself
04:17that I think believe that could use Petro's background and approach to the conflict as leverage to negotiate sort of lasting agreements
04:28with the reminders of rebel groups in the country and the DLN, FARC dissidents and so on.
04:35And probably this sort of moral authority wasn't sufficient.
04:41So even if there was an initial decrease in violence, given the ceasefires that the Petro administration signed with several groups in 2023 and part of 2024,
04:51the situation changed dramatically because these groups took advantage of the situation to expand further, consolidate the control of our territory and try to weaken their adversaries.
05:02So this has turned, has caused severe humanitarian situations, particularly in Norte de Santander, in Cauca and several parts of the country.
05:11And therefore Petro has resorted again to military pressure, but probably too late in his term to sort of balance that with some carrots, right?
05:23So it's unlikely to see any significant achievement to dismantle, to demobilize these groups in the reminder of his term, which is a few months.
05:34Let's take a step back here and look at the United States' wider relationship with Latin America.
05:40Later in the week, Donald Trump will be meeting with Honduras' new president, Nairi Asfura, someone he's much more fond of than Petro.
05:49What's that going to be like?
05:50Well, it's going to be a different kind of meeting.
05:55Asfura owes a lot of his election to the Trump administration's public endorsement, basically, and also the sort of the pressure towards national authority to officialize the results,
06:09even despite the widespread claims of irregularities in that election.
06:14So the meeting, which I think will take place in Mar-a-Lago, not in Washington, will be rather a way for the Trump administration to sort of collect the favor that is done to Asfura and discuss, of course, topics of interest, migration, sort of security.
06:34But in particular, I think also trade when it comes in particular to the zones of the special economic developments, the CEDES, in which the U.S. and some in the close Trump circles have sort of also a stake.
06:50And yeah, it will be basically trying and make sure that Asfura aligns with Washington's interest in the region rather than Asfura bringing some issues to the table, I guess.
07:01And Asfura is just one of a string of newly elected right-wing South American leaders.
07:08We saw on Monday Laura Fernandez win the presidential election in Costa Rica on the first round.
07:15Before her, we also saw similar right-wing or far right-wing victories in Chile, in Bolivia.
07:22Is this, can we talk about a rightward shift in South America right now?
07:27Or is it just a case of the political pendulum just doing what it does and swinging one way and then swinging the other way in the next cycle?
07:37I think it's a bit of most, sorry, it's a bit of both.
07:41There is certainly an effort from the Trump administration to influence the electoral outcomes in several parts of the region through a series of tools,
07:52such as economic pressure, as we saw in Argentina's, legislative elections, even military threats, or diplomatic tools and public messaging, as we saw in the case of Honduras.
08:05In other cases, I think there's a general trend of a rightward shift, which is driven by a deterioration of security in several parts of the region,
08:17which is, you know, exploited by right-wing forces to sort of serve this wave of discontent towards a more progressive approach to security
08:28and favoring or demanding a more hard-line approach towards crime.
08:33And we've seen that in Chile taking a role, which we've seen that in Costa Rica.
08:39So there's definitely some elements that are favoring the right in this context of deterioration of security.
08:45And then, of course, there's the sort of anti-incumbency trend that also plays a natural role.
08:51And we've seen five, six years ago, all the shifts to the left, and then we're seeing a return to the right.
08:57So I think it's a mix of both elements.
09:01Tiziano Breda, you are a Latin America and Caribbean senior analyst at ACLED.
09:06Thank you so much for sharing your insights on France 24.
09:10Thanks to you. Have a nice day.
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