00:00Let's get more analysis. I'm bringing in Christopher Sabatini, a research fellow for Latin America at the Chatham House Think Tank, a senior research fellow, no less.
00:08Christopher, thank you very much for being with us. We always appreciate your time.
00:12It's worth noting, 11 lives lost in that boat, apparently.
00:17People, regardless of whether they're criminals or not, this is the taking of life.
00:21So we're talking here of a very serious incident, part of a very serious and deteriorating situation between the United States and Venezuela.
00:32That's exactly right. Let's be clear, too, is what happened is completely outside the norms of traditional drug interdiction of the U.S. government.
00:42Traditionally, when interdicting boats that are suspected to be carrying drugs or human traffic,
00:48in this case, what happens is the Coast Guard is the one that does it.
00:52The Coast Guard approaches the boat, oftentimes with a helicopter,
00:56to be able to ensure that if the boat continues to flee or threatens the people who approach, that they can take them out.
01:04But what happens is the Coast Guard then asks permission to board the boat.
01:08It verifies the cargo. And if indeed it is drugs or anything illicit, it seizes that and then arrests the people.
01:15We don't know exactly who was on this boat, what it was doing.
01:20We can speculate that maybe it was just a fishing boat.
01:23We don't know 11 people on a fast boat.
01:26It's not that large a boat.
01:27Even if it was carrying drugs, it probably wasn't carrying that many.
01:32So this is a very complicated mission and a very potentially dangerous and, as you mentioned, inhumane way to carry out drug interdiction.
01:41Donald Trump, just speaking, was talking about a massive amount of drugs being on board that vessel.
01:46It is clear, Christopher, as you point out on those images, that it is not such a big boat to have had that significant amount of drugs on board.
01:56Nonetheless, nonetheless, if a crime is being committed, it has to be stopped in some way, shape or form.
02:01What is the Trump administration doing in terms of its change of policy, in terms of its now playing fast and loose with the usual rules regarding tracking down drugs?
02:13Well, there's several things here.
02:14First of all, obviously, the Trump administration really ramped up the rhetoric against Venezuela and the train de agua,
02:22which during the campaign, Trump claimed that train de agua had seized, incorrectly, a village, a town in Colorado, Aurora,
02:34and then claimed that it was in collaboration with the Venezuelan government.
02:39The U.S. government's own national intelligence report actually contradicted that claim.
02:44The train de agua is not controlled by Maduro.
02:46It may allow them to operate, but it is not a Venezuelan government operation.
02:52What is at work here, really, is a follow-through on Trump administration's ongoing battle with attempting to change regimes in Venezuela.
03:01This was attempted in 2019 when the Trump administration with the opposition created a shadow government under Juan Guaido
03:08and imposed maximum pressure sanctions.
03:11Those failed.
03:12Now they're taken to the next step.
03:14Let's be frank.
03:15There is no reason to send eight ships, 4,500 personnel, including 2,200 Marines, to the coast of Venezuela
03:23just to take out tiny little boats of unknown provenance.
03:28It's simply a ridiculous reaction to what is going on.
03:32What the Trump administration is trying to do here is to scare Maduro and scare his inner circle
03:37into somehow defecting and creating the pathway for regime change.
03:42Nicholas Maduro, just to remind people, in a sense, the man who was given the nod by Hugo Chávez before he actually died,
03:51that he would assume power.
03:53Maduro, a former bus driver, I understand, someone who in the typical picture of things might not seem destined for high office.
03:59But nonetheless, there he is.
04:01And he's been president of Venezuela now for more than a decade.
04:03He gets criticized, of course, for what he does and obviously referred to as a pariah by some parts of the world agenda.
04:10Others perhaps have a more sympathetic view.
04:13In your analysis, Christopher, with your look, which is particularly precise and cutting straight through all the kind of noise that goes around this story,
04:22what is he doing for Venezuela?
04:24Is he part of the problem?
04:25Is he, in some way, shape or form, a solution?
04:28What's your sense?
04:30Michel Maduro is basically the bloc.
04:32There was a hope under the Biden administration that last year, on July 28th, 2024,
04:38after the Biden administration had lifted some sanctions and basically negotiated and encouraged the Venezuelan government
04:45to meet its constitutional obligations of holding a presidential election,
04:49after banning a number of opposition candidates.
04:51One opposition candidate was allowed to run as a stand-in, Edmundo Gonzalez.
04:55But the election was clearly stolen.
04:58The theft was verified by the Carter Center and International Election Observation Group for the United States,
05:03as well as the United Nations.
05:05And shortly thereafter, in the reaction of political protests to the theft,
05:11the government of Maduro unleashed a wave of repression in which several dozen people were killed,
05:162,000 people were detained, many of them are still in prison,
05:20including some of the campaign advisers who holed up and sought refuge in the Argentine embassy
05:25and then had to live there, surrounded by the military for several months.
05:30You know, that closed off any form of a democratic exit from Maduro.
05:34Now, is a military response of this sort, of this magnitude even, necessary?
05:40Probably not.
05:41But there, I think, was a legitimate sense of frustration that this is a government
05:44that is not willing to abide by any international norms.
05:48Having said that, breaking other international norms, including killing unverified narcotics
05:54travelers or unverified boats and civilians in international waters,
05:58is also outside the bounds of international norms.
06:01Trump referring to Maduro as a drug trafficker.
06:04That is a sweeping statement.
06:07Maybe you can elaborate on that one for us.
06:09Yes, it is.
06:12Look, there are cases of drug trafficking that come close to Maduro government,
06:17including two nephews of the first lady, Lucas Maduro's wife,
06:22who were arrested and indicted for trying to sell cocaine to U.S. drug enforcement agents.
06:31But the idea that he is engaged in massive drug sales is farcical.
06:37The truth is, is what the Venezuelan government does to both build loyalty and to generate revenue
06:43is cede certain areas of the country to Venezuelan military officers who are in cahoots
06:51with Colombian drug dealers, as well as Colombian drug dealers,
06:55and allow them to export their drugs through Colombian airspace or through Colombian maritime space.
07:00Nicolas Maduro is aware of the drug trafficking that's occurring in his borders,
07:05but he's not specifically mandating and ordering these drug flights and these drug boats to,
07:11if you will, deliver the drugs to Europe or the United States.
07:14Last month, the U.S. doubling its reward money for the leading to the arrest of Nigeria to $50 million
07:22because of what they're calling his links to drug trafficking and criminal groups.
07:26This doesn't seem helpful in any way in terms of trying to establish any kind of diplomatic link.
07:34However, from what you've said, Christopher, I think trying to establish such a link with Venezuela
07:38under Maduro, nigh on impossible.
07:41Yes, and they really have written off Maduro.
07:44I think they've decided one way or another they're going to get Maduro.
07:47Let me just also, you laughed when you mentioned the $50 million,
07:49and it is indeed funny because before it was $25 million.
07:53Who in their right mind thinks that simply by doubling it,
07:56there may be someone who's going to say, you know what, $50 million now we're talking, I'll take that bet.
08:00It's simply performative.
08:02What they're trying to do is ramp up pressure on Maduro,
08:06scare him, and perhaps rattle some of the people around him to remove him.
08:10And this is a common ploy.
08:12We saw this in 2019 also when the Trump administration helped create the government of Juan Guaido,
08:18is to call for the military to intervene.
08:21There's always this myth that it's a very fragile regime.
08:23The truth is it's very locked in in corruption, its own networks,
08:27and it's also deeply penetrated by Cuban security agents who very much ensure the discipline of the circle around Maduro.
08:34So we've seen this play before.
08:36It never works.
08:38Maybe it will this time.
08:39We really don't know.
08:40But they're clearly pulling out all the stops.
08:42One interesting thing, by the way, the bounty that the U.S. put on Osama bin Laden,
08:46who organized the terrorist attacks in New York in 2001, was only $26 million.
08:51So clearly we're way out of the normal range of pretty much bounty hunting as well as diplomacy.
08:59Bounty hunting.
09:00And as you say, those troops moved closer to Venezuela,
09:03so clearly the situation is quite delicate, to say the very least.
09:08As always, Christopher, thank you very much, Steve, for joining us.
09:11Christopher.
09:11Chris Sabatini from Chatham House, where he is the senior fellow there in the Latin America studies.
09:17Thank you very much indeed for bringing your analysis into the forum.
Be the first to comment