00:00And joining us is Elizabeth Dickinson, Deputy Director for Latin America at the International Crisis Group.
00:10Thank you for being with us here on France 24.
00:13Always a pleasure. Thank you so much.
00:15What do you make of this one day Donald Trump saying that Gustavo Petro better watch his behind and now welcoming him to the White House?
00:30You know, really, since Trump has taken office, Petro and Trump have each in one another found a perfect sparring partner for their own political agendas.
00:39Trump on numerous occasions has used Petro as a way to send messages to Latin America about the price of not cooperating with his agenda in terms of sanctions, in terms of tariffs.
00:50And, of course, with the threat of military force parked right in the Caribbean.
00:54I think Gustavo Petro has also used this spat for his own agenda.
01:02We are entering an electoral cycle here in Colombia.
01:05And I think, you know, being a critic of clear policies like migration, the war in Gaza, the attacks on suspected drug boats, that has played well with his base.
01:15And both men, I think, have used this fight to their advantage.
01:18Now, after the operation in Caracas a month ago now to arrest Nicolás Maduro and his wife in Venezuela, I think the dynamic changed significantly because now we understand, and in fact, the entire region is on notice, that the U.S. threat to use military force is not just words.
01:38It is about action.
01:40And I do think that that caused a shift in the thinking in Petro's administration and really a sense of urgency about amending this rhetorical dispute.
01:51Just to remind our viewers, Elizabeth, Gustavo Petro in a previous life had been a hostage at the hands of drug dealers, Colombia and the United States, which together had fought against the drug trafficking trade for decades.
02:13Where does it go from here?
02:16You know, I really want to underline something very clear.
02:18We have, of course, this high-level political dispute.
02:22And in many ways, that's just noise to the fact that the bilateral relationship and cooperation and counter-narcotics has never stopped.
02:31Colombia is Washington's strongest ally in the region.
02:34These are two military and security forces that are integrated in their fight against drug trafficking.
02:39They share intelligence.
02:40They jointly plan operations.
02:42And, you know, I think below this noise at the top, really, that has continued.
02:49And Colombia continues to be the anchor of Washington's counter-narcotics policy across the region.
02:56So this has all been a bit of a distraction.
02:59For me, a successful outcome of this meeting would, frankly, be that it's a bit boring, that we go back to doing the hard work that these two countries have done together for many decades and has not ceased during the Trump administration or during Petro's administration, despite disagreements about some of the details.
03:16Particularly, as your correspondent mentioned, there is a disagreement about how best to go about countering these drug trafficking organizations.
03:26Gustavo Petro has very much emphasized that he would like to target these groups higher up in the supply chain, closer to the people who are making the big bucks.
03:34So that means seizures.
03:36It means interdiction.
03:36Whereas the White House looks at the satellite images of coca, coca is the raw material that is used to produce cocaine, and sees that there is more coca growing in Colombia than at any point in recent history, and wants to see that eradicated.
03:52This is a disagreement really about the way to combat a problem.
03:55But both countries agree that it is fundamental, not just to Colombia's stability, but to the broader region.
04:01Elizabeth Dickinson, you mentioned one is a great foil for the other.
04:04What about for the successors?
04:08And I ask the question because he's term-limited, Gustavo Petro.
04:12You have a presidential election in the spring, and the polls are inconclusive.
04:20That's right.
04:21And I think that Petro wants to demonstrate with this meeting that he, as a left-leaning leader in Latin America, is capable of managing the relationship with the United States.
04:30The stakes for Colombia are enormous.
04:32Not only is the United States the most significant military and security partner, but it's also the country to which Colombia exports the most goods.
04:41It's the most important economic relationship.
04:44Commercial ties, cultural interchange.
04:47The number of Colombians who have studied in the United States, American businesses who have a presence here in Colombia, the stakes are very high.
04:55And I think Petro wants to demonstrate, as political successors of his will be entering the electoral cycle, that this is not a partisan relationship, but rather something that the left can also manage.
05:07We've seen the Trump administration weigh in on elections, most recently in Honduras.
05:13And we've seen a bit of a winning streak for fans of Donald Trump.
05:17The latest example being Costa Rica, where the far right has won the presidential poll.
05:23How does that bode for Abelardo de la Esprella, who is one of the candidates, hails from the far right?
05:31Right. Is the White House actively canvassing for?
05:36So I think we are concerned about how the White House will interact with Colombia's election.
05:41And certainly it is our expectation that Trump will make his opinion known about the candidates.
05:47I should say that we're very early in the electoral cycle here.
05:50And even the identity of the candidates is not clear yet.
05:53We don't know exactly what this vote will look like.
05:56But I would say that the Trump effect can go both ways in the region.
05:59I think it's far too early to say that there is a right wave sweeping across Latin America.
06:04Yes, in Costa Rica, you did have this change, really, and this tilt towards the right.
06:10Costa Rica, of course, facing a significant security crisis with drug trafficking, but also the proliferation of small criminal groups in the country.
06:19But Colombia has been doing this for a long time.
06:21Colombia is a country that has lived for more than half a century fighting against organizations that enrich themselves through drug trafficking.
06:29And I think that the experience of Colombia is much more politically diverse in the sense about the ways to go about attacking that problem.
06:38You know, we've seen the Trump effect have the opposite impact in places like Ecuador, where the president lost a referendum that the United States had actively supported.
06:47So it's far too clear to call the shots in terms of where this vote will go in May in the presidential election.
06:54Elizabeth Dickinson, so many thanks for joining us from Bogota.
06:58Thanks to you.
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