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00:00For more, we can speak to Jaffet Kitsin, an associate fellow at the Southeast Asia Program
00:04at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
00:07Hello to you, Jaffet.
00:10This decision to dissolve parliament and call for the early elections, did that surprise you?
00:18It didn't surprise me at all.
00:20There's certainly quite a bit of risk in calling for an early election.
00:24He is at the mercy of the other parties within the Thai parliament.
00:28Bum Jai Thai, Anutin's party, is only the third largest party,
00:31and they're only there due to a supplying confidence motion from the People's Party,
00:36which soured, which we heard about earlier, when the no-confidence motion was about to be filed.
00:42He will still have to work with some of the more conservative military-aligned parties,
00:47which I think he's more than capable of doing, given his strong stance on the issue with Cambodia.
00:53But he'll also have to charm old foes, including Pe Thai.
00:58Most recently, in the Pe Thong Thanh Chinois administration,
01:02his withdrawal of Bum Jai Thai from the Pe Thai-led situation, or coalition,
01:07is what led to the toppling of that government after the leaked phone call
01:10in a previous border clash with Hun Sen leaking Pe Thong Thanh Chinois' phone call
01:16and leading to the ouster of that government.
01:18So certainly, while he could help increase his mandate, it's not for certain.
01:23No party is going to get a comfortable majority enough to govern.
01:28But when you have a leader, you know, you have the prime minister making this.
01:33He's now going to inherit a caretaker government that has limited powers,
01:37all while there are these border clashes.
01:39You say it's a risk, but what would he get out of this?
01:44Why would he make that decision?
01:46And how would these limited powers affect his ability to manage this crisis?
01:52He might make this decision thinking that the current wave of nationalism
01:56that has swept through Thailand in the wake of this conflict
02:00will help propel him higher up in the polls than predicted.
02:03He has been rebranding his Bhum Jai Thai party to better cater to local needs,
02:09pushing for economic stimulus, and of course,
02:12vowing to defend Thailand from what he's portraying as
02:15Cambodian aggression and Cambodian bad faith acting.
02:19The Thai side has repeatedly accused the Cambodian side of laying fresh landmines
02:24and not being a good faith actor and not stepping away from the conflict
02:28and agreeing to the principles mentioned in the ceasefire that was brokered in October.
02:32As to what limitations to his power this might have,
02:36as he's now the leader of a caretaker government,
02:39he's quite stuck in this position.
02:41No major moves can be made,
02:42and there's very little incentive for him and this caretaker government
02:47to actually move toward negotiations.
02:49It'll more likely stay in the current conflict-ridden status quo
02:53for this 45 to 60-day period until the elections are set.
02:58Only the next prime minister, whether that's him or someone else,
03:01will be able to make significant moves in ending this conflict.
03:04Locking him in in a, you know, current state of nationalism could help boost his portions
03:11if he continues to handle the conflict in a way that is palatable to the Thai people,
03:16but that remains to be seen given the unpredictability
03:19and devastating scale of this conflict so far.
03:22Yeah, and is that why he wants to speak to Donald Trump this Friday, Ben?
03:28Yes, he certainly believes that conversations with the president,
03:32he's mentioned previously that he didn't want necessarily outside parties
03:37to intervene in what he thought to be a bilateral dispute between Cambodia and Thailand,
03:42but of course the United States' pull on both countries is quite significant
03:47given the United States' importance in trade for both countries.
03:52Donald Trump previously mentioned that it's these trade issues
03:56that will likely bring the countries to the negotiating table
03:59threatening higher tariff rates previously in the last negotiations for a ceasefire.
04:05So I would imagine this conversation to pop up very early on in that phone call.
04:12In the meantime, how many people have been affected by these border clashes
04:15between the two countries?
04:18We're talking hundreds of thousands of people along this border,
04:22anywhere from 400 to 600,000 according to what I've been seeing most recently,
04:27and it's certainly a very difficult situation.
04:29You have mass evacuations from these regions, overflowing local capacity,
04:35leading people to take shelter in makeshift places,
04:39whether that's high schools, assembly centers, under bunkers, under bridges, you name it,
04:45they'll go there, right?
04:46The situation is just so distressing to so many locals, Thai and Cambodian alike,
04:51that there's nowhere to go but quickly and far.
04:56Jafet, thank you so much for your time.
04:57Jafet Kitson, joining us. Thank you.
04:59Jafet, thank you.
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