Thailand's high-risk election: At the mercy of major political parties, PM Anutin rolls dice on 'wave of nationalism'

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00:00For more, we can speak to Jaffet Kitsin, an associate fellow at the Southeast Asia Program

00:04at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

00:07Hello to you, Jaffet.

00:10This decision to dissolve parliament and call for the early elections, did that surprise you?

00:18It didn't surprise me at all.

00:20There's certainly quite a bit of risk in calling for an early election.

00:24He is at the mercy of the other parties within the Thai parliament.

00:28Bum Jai Thai, Anutin's party, is only the third largest party,

00:31and they're only there due to a supplying confidence motion from the People's Party,

00:36which soured, which we heard about earlier, when the no-confidence motion was about to be filed.

00:42He will still have to work with some of the more conservative military-aligned parties,

00:47which I think he's more than capable of doing, given his strong stance on the issue with Cambodia.

00:53But he'll also have to charm old foes, including Pe Thai.

00:58Most recently, in the Pe Thong Thanh Chinois administration,

01:02his withdrawal of Bum Jai Thai from the Pe Thai-led situation, or coalition,

01:07is what led to the toppling of that government after the leaked phone call

01:10in a previous border clash with Hun Sen leaking Pe Thong Thanh Chinois' phone call

01:16and leading to the ouster of that government.

01:18So certainly, while he could help increase his mandate, it's not for certain.

01:23No party is going to get a comfortable majority enough to govern.

01:28But when you have a leader, you know, you have the prime minister making this.

01:33He's now going to inherit a caretaker government that has limited powers,

01:37all while there are these border clashes.

01:39You say it's a risk, but what would he get out of this?

01:44Why would he make that decision?

01:46And how would these limited powers affect his ability to manage this crisis?

01:52He might make this decision thinking that the current wave of nationalism

01:56that has swept through Thailand in the wake of this conflict

02:00will help propel him higher up in the polls than predicted.

02:03He has been rebranding his Bhum Jai Thai party to better cater to local needs,

02:09pushing for economic stimulus, and of course,

02:12vowing to defend Thailand from what he's portraying as

02:15Cambodian aggression and Cambodian bad faith acting.

02:19The Thai side has repeatedly accused the Cambodian side of laying fresh landmines

02:24and not being a good faith actor and not stepping away from the conflict

02:28and agreeing to the principles mentioned in the ceasefire that was brokered in October.

02:32As to what limitations to his power this might have,

02:36as he's now the leader of a caretaker government,

02:39he's quite stuck in this position.

02:41No major moves can be made,

02:42and there's very little incentive for him and this caretaker government

02:47to actually move toward negotiations.

02:49It'll more likely stay in the current conflict-ridden status quo

02:53for this 45 to 60-day period until the elections are set.

02:58Only the next prime minister, whether that's him or someone else,

03:01will be able to make significant moves in ending this conflict.

03:04Locking him in in a, you know, current state of nationalism could help boost his portions

03:11if he continues to handle the conflict in a way that is palatable to the Thai people,

03:16but that remains to be seen given the unpredictability

03:19and devastating scale of this conflict so far.

03:22Yeah, and is that why he wants to speak to Donald Trump this Friday, Ben?

03:28Yes, he certainly believes that conversations with the president,

03:32he's mentioned previously that he didn't want necessarily outside parties

03:37to intervene in what he thought to be a bilateral dispute between Cambodia and Thailand,

03:42but of course the United States' pull on both countries is quite significant

03:47given the United States' importance in trade for both countries.

03:52Donald Trump previously mentioned that it's these trade issues

03:56that will likely bring the countries to the negotiating table

03:59threatening higher tariff rates previously in the last negotiations for a ceasefire.

04:05So I would imagine this conversation to pop up very early on in that phone call.

04:12In the meantime, how many people have been affected by these border clashes

04:15between the two countries?

04:18We're talking hundreds of thousands of people along this border,

04:22anywhere from 400 to 600,000 according to what I've been seeing most recently,

04:27and it's certainly a very difficult situation.

04:29You have mass evacuations from these regions, overflowing local capacity,

04:35leading people to take shelter in makeshift places,

04:39whether that's high schools, assembly centers, under bunkers, under bridges, you name it,

04:45they'll go there, right?

04:46The situation is just so distressing to so many locals, Thai and Cambodian alike,

04:51that there's nowhere to go but quickly and far.

04:56Jafet, thank you so much for your time.

04:57Jafet Kitson, joining us. Thank you.

04:59Jafet, thank you.

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