00:00Let's bring in now Sina Azadi, Director of the Middle East Studies Program at George Washington University
00:06and author of the book, Iran and the Bomb, United States and Iran, the Nuclear Question.
00:11Thank you very much for being with us here on France 24. We appreciate your time.
00:16I'm wondering what your thoughts are on this incident regarding the drone in the Arabian Sea.
00:22Give us your sense of how you see the situation.
00:27It's good to be with you. Thank you for having me.
00:29Look, this is not an isolated incident for today.
00:35This was the second event of today.
00:40Earlier, there was an Iranian gunboat that had tried to seize a U.S.-flagged oil tanker in the Persian Gulf region.
00:50But that oil tanker was able to basically escape and was later escorted by U.S. Navy.
00:58And this episode of the Iranian drone being shut down, this was the second event of the day.
01:05And as you can see, we're slowly inching toward a potential conflict.
01:11Either side could be in a position where it cannot back down and it is forced to escalate.
01:17While, you know, neither side is really, you know, wants to enter a conflict.
01:24And as was in your reporting, they are set to meet on Friday.
01:28I think both of them are, you know, going up the escalation ladder and it's very unfortunate with the military buildup in the region.
01:38Indeed, the buildup.
01:39And, of course, along with that, the very bellicose rhetoric coming from both sides.
01:43Trump clearly being very clear as what he might do, reflecting on trying to sort of echo what happened back in June last year with the attacks on Iran.
01:55And the Ayatollah speaking out and saying, of course, if that happens, there will be met with a similar kind of force in terms of revenge and reaction, retaliation.
02:04Clearly, as you say, something which is really ratcheting up the tension.
02:07In the context of all of that, how can talks take place between these two sides?
02:13Do you think they will go ahead?
02:14If they do, will there be anything substantive coming out of it?
02:19Well, everybody is, you know, talking about how they're interested in a peaceful negotiations.
02:26But we're seeing conflicting reports about the venue and the format of the talks.
02:32It was initially reported that the Turks, the Egyptians, and the Emiratis are acting as intermediaries between Iranians and Americans.
02:41But then we saw another report that the Iranians had insisted that the venue be changed from Turkey to Oman, and it has to be bilateral and direct talks.
02:50So, again, there are reports out there that there's going to be talks between the two countries, which, in my opinion, will mostly be focused on a political framework of a deal, not technical details.
03:05Meaning that if the talks happen, now, again, regardless of, you know, where they take place or the format, everything, there's going to be a political agreement and then future follow-up talks on the details.
03:21Iranians, since the June 2025 conflict, they don't have many playing cards to play with.
03:28I mean, I think the only leverage that they have is the 400 kilograms of highly enriched uranium.
03:35And the question is, what is the U.S. is willing to offer them?
03:40Sanctions relief or will the U.S. promise not to attack Iran?
03:44These are the questions that we don't know the answer.
03:47We don't know the details of the talks and what each side is willing to offer to the other in terms of concessions.
03:53Indeed. I'm wondering whether the situation, as it has been within Iran's borders with the protests that have been going on and the killing of many Iranian civilians as part of that by the Revolutionary Guard,
04:06I'm wondering whether this was weighing on the talks as well, whether this is actually sort of in some way or shape kind of restricting what the Ayatollah and the regime can do.
04:18What is your sense of what that means?
04:20Well, from the Iranian perspective, and this is how they view the situation, is that the June 2025 conflict with Israel and the United States never stopped.
04:31It was paused.
04:33And then there was a follow-up conflict, if you will, in terms of the recent protests.
04:38From their perspective, and this is what Ayatollah Khamenei has called it, an American-backed coup in Iran, which this is why they so brutally cracked down on the protests.
04:51You know, the casualties are in thousands of people.
04:54So, again, from their perspective, this is a follow-up or a second round of fight with the United States.
05:02Now, from the American perspective, Iranians are more weakened at home because of the protests and are even more desperate to get a deal with the United States that could bring sanctions relief that would improve the economy and perhaps mitigate the presence of the people on the streets.
05:22I do want to emphasize, though, that the Islamic Republic was able to crack down this episode.
05:29But as long as sanctions are in place, it cannot address the fundamental root of the protest, which started as an economic protest in response to fluctuations in Iranian currency.
05:45Sina Azoudi, Director of Middle Eastern Studies at George Washington University.
05:50Thank you for joining us.
05:51Thank you for your insight into the situation.
05:53We greatly appreciate it.
05:54And, of course, we're watching for all developments.
05:56Sina, once again, thank you very much indeed.
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