- 4 months ago
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00:00Remember the Queen and David Bowie song where they joined forces and sang under pressure?
00:05That's what you get today.
00:06Not from the Buffalo Bills who look really good to start the season.
00:09It's from the Miami Dolphins and their head coaching staff and their quarterback and their wide receivers and their general manager to put up a fight.
00:16The one thing we know, Joe Ranieri in the NFL, it's really hard to go on the road on a Thursday night.
00:20And this isn't, hey, let's get on a plane and go to Tampa or Jacksonville on a Thursday.
00:25Not that bad.
00:25No, you get on a plane from South Florida, you fly to Buffalo.
00:28That's a good travel distance.
00:29And tonight, Tua Tagovailoa and the Miami Dolphins are on the road to take on the Buffalo Bills and Josh Allen.
00:35The price point in this game, just about everywhere, 11 and a half to 12 and a half.
00:39The total, 49 and a half.
00:41Let's start here with the game itself, Joe.
00:43The pressure on the Dolphins of moving to 0 and 3 and what it means for that franchise.
00:49Well, it means everything because we all know statistically the percentage of teams that start the season 0 and 3
00:56and go anywhere even remotely close to the postseason is basically slim to none here.
01:03But now, you know, the Dolphins have not won at Orchard Park, Donnie, since 2016.
01:09So now they are expected to save their season and go there.
01:13And with this team now that all of a sudden, Donnie, is now built to be a power running team.
01:19They are running over everything.
01:21They ran over the Ravens, supposed to be a great running, you know, running defense.
01:26The Jets were supposed to be their bread and butter, ran right over them.
01:30And now they're going up against a Dolphins team that has no secondary and can't stop the run anyway.
01:34So this is either going to be a 50-point blowout or Buffalo, who's racking up the injuries, Donnie, here.
01:42Matt Milano is apparently out now.
01:44They still don't have Ed Oliver, you know.
01:47So maybe, just maybe, maybe they don't win this game, but maybe they stay within this number.
01:54Don't forget, this was 12 and a half, even 13 at one point.
01:57So there's been a lot of Dolphin money in the marketplace that has brought this thing down to 11, 11 and a half.
02:03I'm glad you brought this up about the Buffalo Bills because we're handicappers, we're betters,
02:09and you like to try to get those X's and O's.
02:10Like, there are some teams I can pick up right away.
02:12Like, oh, I like the quarterback to throw two touchdowns.
02:14I like this wide receiver to have seven catches.
02:16I like this running back to have 50 yards and a touchdown.
02:19I look at the Buffalo Bills right now, Joe, the same way I look at the Detroit Lions.
02:22You go, like, what's the correlation?
02:23Yes, 50-plus points last week for the Detroit Lions, but it's like, boy, who am I going to pick?
02:28Is it going to be Gibbs' big day?
02:30Montgomery's big day?
02:30Goff's big day?
02:31Alman Ross Brown's big day?
02:33Like, there's so many weapons in there.
02:35But now I take a look at the Bills and go, I should like Khalil Shakir.
02:37Ooh, I don't know.
02:39Like, whose tyrant is it tonight?
02:40Ooh, I should like Keon Coleman tonight.
02:41Mm, that's kind of interesting here.
02:42Oh, no, I should like James Cook in the backfield.
02:45Or how about two touchdown passes out of Josh Allen?
02:47He goes, well, Josh Allen just ran two touchdowns in himself.
02:50They're so good right now as a Swiss Army Knight offense, Joe.
02:53I'm finding it hard to pinpoint exactly what I like in the lineup tonight.
02:58Is that, like, do you get the same way sometimes?
02:59Listen, especially with a team that can not only pass the ball, and you have one of the
03:07best quarterbacks in the NFL in Josh Allen, right?
03:11And even Tua said it in an interview this week where he's like, listen, dude, I can't do half
03:16of what.
03:16Josh Allen's, like, on a different level than me on what he can do and what he can't do.
03:22But I'm telling you right now, Josh Allen, the biggest thing they have always had to
03:27worry about with him is don't ask Josh Allen early in the season to put himself in harm's
03:33way that often.
03:34The good news with a running game now, Donnie, is they don't have to.
03:38But now it opens up the door for everybody else on his Buffalo team from a prop betting
03:44perspective that who do you zone in on?
03:47There is not one go-to guy anymore.
03:50It's really hard.
03:51They'll get inside the five-yard line.
03:52Oh, this is Cook territory.
03:53No, Allen runs it in.
03:54No, he throws it to Dawson Knox.
03:55Maybe it's Kincaid.
03:56Like, everybody's on equal footing, which is great if you want to bet the Buffalo Bills.
04:00Just not great for prop bets to say, man, they scored 30 points.
04:02My guy didn't cash in a touchdown.
04:03What actually happened there at this point?
04:05But these two quarterbacks are going to do, and also understand this, usually the NFL,
04:09and rightfully so, Miami goes, we want Buffalo in our, you know, stadium in, you know, let's
04:14just say early September.
04:15We want them to go in the heat where they might not be used to it.
04:18And then the Buffalo Bills always tell the NFL, you better put those Miami Dolphins up
04:21here December 16th in freezing cold temperatures.
04:24Thursday night is a tough game to play.
04:25We get that.
04:26But Joe, high 60s, no rain in the forecast, and light winds.
04:30It's as good as you're going to get for temperatures here.
04:32And we have a quick clip here of talking about, you know, Tua saying, hey, man, Josh Allen's
04:36the real deal.
04:38He's top tier.
04:41You know, if it's not with his arm, it's with his legs.
04:44You know, that dude can do literally anything he wants.
04:46So, definitely different skill set for me.
04:51I can't do half of what he does when it comes to running the ball and any of that.
04:56And then with how he can just chuck a ball down the field, you know, with how far and
05:01the arm strength that he has, you know, he's supreme when it comes to that.
05:07So, it's going to be fun.
05:09Get to see him.
05:10Get to play him again.
05:12And we'll see.
05:12That sounds like they're going to get beat by 30 tonight, Joe.
05:16Help me out.
05:18Don, imagine being a starting quarterback in the NFL and getting up and being like, that
05:23dude is heads and tails.
05:25Never surrender.
05:27I shouldn't even show up.
05:29Like, thank God I don't have to tackle him.
05:31Like, what are you doing?
05:32Like, what are you saying right now?
05:34Yeah, he's a great player.
05:35That's, you didn't need to go on and drone on and on and on.
05:39Like, oh my goodness, Donnie.
05:41That should be very interesting tonight to see how much Josh Allen is that much better
05:47than Tua since he just admitted it to the whole world.
05:51Now, the ways that you can go about taking a look at the Miami Dolphins today, right?
05:54They're getting a lot of points.
05:55It's a Thursday.
05:55It's still a division battle.
05:56They're not dead in the water.
05:58They didn't show up in week number one.
05:59We can agree with that.
06:00They put up a fight against New England and probably should have won that football game,
06:03but they didn't.
06:04And yes, there is something about the pressure of the environment where Buffalo is 2-0.
06:07They should win this game, yes.
06:08But Miami knows they go 0-3.
06:10It's an absolute disaster.
06:12All hands on deck.
06:13That doesn't mean you win the football game, and that doesn't mean you can cover the spread.
06:16The one thing that you take a look at is, hey, maybe there is something to Tyreek Hill
06:19being able to get open deep again.
06:21100-yard game last week.
06:22Jalen Waddles, too, a very good and fast and talented wide receiver.
06:25The one thing I like about this Miami Dolphins team is Devon Achan last year,
06:29coming onto the scene over the past two years, injured a lot.
06:31He's not injured now, and he looks really good.
06:34Is that the linchpin tonight for the Miami Dolphins to try to keep this game close?
06:37Is it Devon Achan, or maybe it's just a passing game and opening it up for you, Joe?
06:42Well, it better be Achan involved in that passing game, because I don't know that they're going
06:46to be able to run the ball, Donnie.
06:47They have not been able to run the ball.
06:49But the good news is, if they don't have Ed Oliver, they don't have Matt Milano,
06:54maybe this is the night.
06:55You know, the best defense against Josh Allen is keeping him on the sideline, Donnie.
07:00So maybe Achan rushing the ball might be the best look here tonight.
07:05It could be.
07:06And also trying to keep Josh Allen on the sideline.
07:08Whack him in the nose!
07:09We're going to get a picture and a glimpse here of what he's actually going to wear in this football game
07:12to protect that nose.
07:14If the Dolphins can even get close to him and try to pass rushing here.
07:17We'll find out.
07:18More handicaps on the way.
07:19It's Buffalo.
07:20It's Miami.
07:21It's Thursday Night Football.
07:22It's the early line on the Sports Grid Network.
07:24It is a Thursday, and we have Thursday Night Football tonight.
07:27Orchard Park, New York.
07:28That is the Miami Dolphins taking on the Buffalo Bills line here.
07:31Most outlets at 12.5 right now.
07:33Most outlets at 49.5.
07:35We'll see where that gets closer to game time here.
07:37But we got some interesting dynamics at play tonight.
07:41And that's James Cook.
07:42Anytime touchdown market is a running back, a minus 175 price.
07:45Josh Allen, anytime touchdown market, a minus 170 price.
07:49Devon Achan, the first Miami Dolphins to appear on the list at a plus 110 price.
07:53If we're starting in the touchdown market tonight, Joe, 50 points.
07:57We're expecting a lot of touchdowns.
07:59Somebody has to score.
08:00Who's scoring for you tonight?
08:03Yeah, there's a lot.
08:04Well, if Miami is going to stay close in this game, it better be you know who.
08:10It better be Tyreek Hill.
08:11It better be a figure out a way with that banged up secondary still of Buffalo to get him the ball in space.
08:19And if they don't, there's going to be an awful lot of, you know, pouting and screaming and finger pointing on the sideline.
08:27And that's what we've gotten already.
08:29So, yeah, I would expect, you know, Tyreek to be able to at least get enough opportunities, Donnie, to be able to find pay dirt here against this banged up secondary to bills.
08:40I'm telling you right now, like the theory is sometimes you can just look at lines where the book does not want you to bet those two lines.
08:47And I'll repeat it again.
08:48James Cook and Josh Young.
08:49I'm not playing minus money here for a touchdown.
08:53Watch them both score a touchdown in the first half, and you're sitting on the sidelines here.
08:57But if you want to get creative, Joe, here's the way I look at it.
08:59We're expecting points tonight.
09:01It's a nice night.
09:01And maybe the Buffalo Bills do well at the Miami Dolphins, which means more throwing in the second half for the Miami Dolphins, which means when they get inside the 10-yard line, they're not handing the footballs because they want to score as fast as they can.
09:12Why not, Joe?
09:13Tyreek Hill, plus 170.
09:14Jalen Waddell, plus 110.
09:16Take both of those guys at big-time plus money prices and say, if two is going to throw two touchdowns tonight, chances are one of those players is going to catch one of those touchdown passes and take the plus money.
09:28Now, granted, they both get in.
09:29That is a monster night.
09:30But, Joe, I'm playing plus money for the wide receivers in a game I expect a lot of passing, particularly in the second half.
09:37Plus money, man.
09:38That's where I'm going.
09:38Give me the split.
09:40I am with you, Donnie.
09:41Again, they're going to have to push the ball.
09:44They're going to have to score because that Miami defense is hot trash, especially that secondary there.
09:52So not only is Buffalo going to be able to move the ball, they're probably going to be able to score pretty easily, which means Miami is likely going to be playing from behind most of this game.
10:04And I don't think, you know, McDaniels has any idea on how to slow tempo down and drag.
10:10And that's not what this game plan is going to be for the Dolphins.
10:13They're going to try to get into a shootout with the Bills.
10:16And I don't know that that's a great game plan, but it certainly helps for the prop betting markets.
10:23Yeah, let's take a look at some of these receiving props because typically you're going to go to the A1A guys, right?
10:27Tyreek Hill on one side, Khalil Shakir on the other.
10:30Now, you might want to go that direction where it's 64.5 for Tyreek Hill, Khalil Shakir at 40.5.
10:35But this is also what I just brought up talking about this.
10:38We're expecting a big-time easy victory for the Buffalo Bills.
10:42Oh, Donnie, why do you say the odds makers are saying that?
10:43It's a double-digit spread in the NFL, which is quite rare.
10:46At times, you might get one or two maybe a week.
10:49This is one of those games.
10:50And it's closer to 14 points right now, 12.5, than it is to 10 points.
10:54But understand this.
10:55Like, if the Bills are going to score, look at the wide receiver spot here.
10:58Khalil Shakir, 40.5.
11:00Keon Coleman, 42.5.
11:02Kincaid, 31.5.
11:04Josh Palmer, 35.5.
11:05We're not talking about the upper echelon.
11:08You've got to get 75-plus receiving yards to cash this ticket in.
11:10If we're expecting the Buffalo Bills to approach 30 points,
11:13look how low, Joe, these numbers are in the receiving props for the Bills.
11:17If I had to give you one player on the Buffalo Bills as a receiver tonight
11:21to go over his player prop, who would you actually be picking out tonight?
11:26Well, Shakir is a good look here.
11:29But so are the tight ends, right?
11:32Whether it be Kincaid or Knox, those guys certainly inside the red zone
11:38have always been favorite targets of Josh Allen.
11:42And it makes sense, since I don't know that we've yet to see this linebacking crew
11:47of Miami be able to actually defend a pass-catching tight end here.
11:52Don't think we've actually seen that yet.
11:54So it would not shock me if the tight ends on Buffalo have big nights here
12:00in Orchard Park.
12:02Yeah, I look at it and I say to myself, because I've always liked Khalil Shakir,
12:05and I do think, you know, obviously, you know, Josh Allen, it is his go-to guy,
12:08but they do spread it around a lot.
12:10Like, this is one of those games I just feel like,
12:11and you've pointed out multiple times, and you're right.
12:13Like, Miami doesn't really do a lot well on defense.
12:16So if you're trying to get your guys going, like Shakir over 40.5 yards,
12:19that seems like a doable proposition.
12:21Keon Coleman, you take more deep shots with, I get it.
12:24Kinkade at tight end, Palmer, sort of a backup.
12:26James Cook at 12.5, that's one screen pass, he gets it done.
12:29But I'm sort of looking at that lead dog here.
12:30I'm looking at Khalil Shakir, over 40.5 receiving yards.
12:34I think that does make a lot of sense.
12:36The math ain't math in here.
12:38You might say, Donnie, what are you talking about?
12:40What math?
12:40I don't want to do math early on a Thursday morning.
12:42Sonny writes out, it's Joe and here, it's early on.
12:44We don't like to do math, unless it's handicapping
12:46and trying to put the odds in our favor here.
12:48The Commanders, they are returning back to D.C.
12:51They're in Landover right now, which if you're ever in the FedEx field,
12:54slash whatever the heck it's called today, it's a terrible place.
12:57It's a terrible site.
12:59It's just bad.
12:59It started out as Jack Cook Stadium.
13:01It's basically just a huge aluminum tin can in the middle of a suburb here.
13:05So they're going back to the old state of the RFK.
13:07But Bleacher Report put out a tweet here, Joe,
13:09that I don't understand how we got here.
13:11The Commanders are returning to D.C., it says.
13:14The D.C. City Council has approved a $3.8 billion renovation of RFK Stadium for 2030.
13:22Why aren't we just knocking the old stadium down and building a new one?
13:26I want to start right there with you, Joe.
13:29Yeah, my initial guess would be the same reason why you don't.
13:35It is, but $3.1 billion, $3.8 billion, you're not saving money, are you?
13:42I mean, like when you want to do, you know, you don't knock down the house.
13:47You leave a wall up because it saves you in the long run because it's a renovation and not a new bill.
13:52So you save all this money on taxes and everything else.
13:55But that can't be it when you're paying almost $4 billion for a renovation.
13:59So I have no idea why it is that they won't just level it and start from scratch.
14:05Now, D.C. steals a lot of our money in the way of taxes.
14:08This sounds like somebody's pocketing like $3 billion and laughing all the way to the bank.
14:12Now, understand this.
14:13If we put things in context, when you look at the NFL stadiums, like the newer ones,
14:18like Jerry World AT&T Stadium comes up right away like this thing.
14:22Like, Jerry will tell you, like, it almost bankrupted me.
14:24It costed me so much money to try to build this.
14:26And it's probably the go-to arena for, like, extravagance and giantness and big games.
14:31And it's Jerry World.
14:32That cost $1.3 billion when it was built.
14:37Well, Donnie, there is inflation.
14:38Yes, there is.
14:39Which in today's dollars, Joe, $1.9 billion.
14:42You're telling me this Redskins Stadium renovation is twice as expensive in real dollars,
14:49today's dollars, than what we had before?
14:52What?
14:53Who's paying for this?
14:54Well, apparently, those that live in D.C. and here, newsflash, Donnie, they can afford it.
15:02I'll tell you that right now, because everything in Washington, D.C. is about four times the price of where it is in other places.
15:10But I believe it's not just the stadium.
15:13I believe it's an entire complex that they're going to be putting together.
15:18So I don't know that it's just for the stadium.
15:20I think there's a few other buildings that might be also built there in and around it.
15:26Imagine, again, I just wish the government would come to myself, Joe, or anybody listening and say,
15:33Hey, Joe, looks like you're in the market for a new house.
15:36You're going to buy it, let's just call it $750,000.
15:38How about Dade County gives you $350,000 towards that there?
15:42And we give you a nice new road.
15:43We build all the infrastructure for you.
15:45We'll give you tax abatements where you don't have to put any money down.
15:48Welcome into the neighborhood.
15:49Only billionaires and millionaires get this.
15:51Can you imagine you saying, all right, well, the stadium's going to cost $1.8 billion.
15:55But it'd be nice if the taxpayers paid for all the surrounding buildings to be built.
16:00So they're hotels, they're casinos, they're places to eat.
16:03We make all the money, but the taxpayers paid for it here.
16:06Unbelievable how the NFL owners, NBA owners, NHL owners hoodwink society.
16:11Like, well, I'll move the team unless you give me, I don't know, a billion dollars that only is going to come back from my profit and not yours at this.
16:18Make it make sense, as I like to say, it does not make any sense.
16:21But let's get back to the NFL this weekend with some quarterbacks who make it make sense if they can play.
16:26That's Brock Purdy going up against Arizona.
16:28That line is a two and a half point spread right now.
16:30Why?
16:30Because we're expecting Mac Jones to play against the Cardinals in a total of 45 and a half.
16:35So let's start here.
16:36Does it matter to you if Mac Jones or Brock Purdy plays?
16:38Because Mac Jones looked decent last week.
16:40Second start under his belt.
16:42They're the favorites against Arizona.
16:43They probably still should win.
16:44Are we worried if Brock Purdy comes back a little bit too soon for this one?
16:50Listen, I was kind of shocked that he wasn't able to go last week after that game against Seattle in the opening.
16:56But, you know, he had a couple of different injuries.
16:58One being, I believe, you know, a toe and they had maybe a shoulder problem.
17:04But listen, if he's able to go, he's able to go.
17:07It's a divisional matchup.
17:08It's an important matchup for him for this 49ers team.
17:13And, you know, they've had some success over the years against Arizona and Kyla Murray.
17:18So, you know, if you can get him back and he's able to go, there's still a better team, in my opinion, with him under center than Mac Jones.
17:26Although it's good to know that Mac Jones can step in if there's an issue and win you a game.
17:31Yeah, we got some more hot topics here, certainly to bring up in our number two and a couple more here.
17:35And I know Joe is a Jets fan because I want his take on the Jets and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers this game this weekend with a quarterback change because Justin Fields is not going to be able to go.
17:44But I don't want to shortchange Joe Ranieri.
17:46He's a Jets fan.
17:47He should be able to let loose on this topic, and we'll do that in our number two.
17:50Aren't we having fun?
17:51It's a Thursday night football matchup playing between the Dolphins and the Bills.
17:55It's Joe and Donnie in the morning.
17:56The only place to be is on the Sports Grid Network.
18:00You wanted it.
18:01You got it.
18:01It's Carson Wentz.
18:02It's Jake Browning.
18:03Isn't that exactly what you wanted here, Cincinnati versus Minnesota?
18:06Well, that's what you're getting this Sunday at 1 o'clock.
18:09The line actually opened up as a minus one and a half point favorite here for Minnesota.
18:13People buying in Joe Ranieri.
18:16Oh, Carson Wentz.
18:17They're up to a minus three in the sports betting landscape here in the total, which crashed down from 47 and a half to 41 and a half.
18:24I'm telling you right now, Jake Browning's been around the block a little bit in the NFL.
18:28He's got weapons at wideout.
18:29He's going to throw touchdowns.
18:31He's going to throw interceptions.
18:33I just don't know what I'm getting out of Carson Wentz.
18:35I trust Jake Browning way more than I do Carson Wentz in this game.
18:39Am I wrong?
18:39Am I missing something?
18:42I know you're not wrong here, but this game is going to be decided by the defenses.
18:48Which defense here can force the other backup quarterback into some issues here.
18:55Both of these backup quarterbacks have some pretty good weapons to work with, Donnie, except the Aaron Jones injury now for Minnesota is concerning.
19:03Now they're running game, not exactly as potent as it was if he didn't pull the hamstring.
19:10But, you know, Chase Brown and Higgins and you got so much on the other side there where, listen, they're going to want to step up with Joe Burrow knowing what happened to him last week.
19:22They're going to want to step up and get this done.
19:25I just don't know that we're getting over 41 and a half points, Donnie.
19:28It feels like that might be a struggle in this game in Minnesota.
19:32Because I do think Cincinnati can move the football.
19:36Like they moved it against Jacksonville.
19:37And again, that's on a week where Browning didn't expect to get any playing time.
19:40They're not going to shy away from what they do.
19:42Because the interesting part, as you bring up, is I don't know what I'm getting out of Carson Wentz, which I'm not expecting great things.
19:47Like, hey, Wentz dropped back 38 times and threw for 300 yards.
19:50No, he's probably going to have interceptions and fumbles and missed reads out here.
19:53But the question is, what can that Cincinnati defense do to stop anybody at this point?
19:57And can they certainly take advantage of it?
19:59And also, I know you're not supposed to do this.
20:01Like, Justin Fields down for the Jets.
20:03Common theory is like, you know what?
20:05Maybe the Jets are just better without Justin Fields, which is crazy to think about.
20:07But it does pop into your mind.
20:09I'm not saying J.J. McCarthy is a complete bust at this point, right?
20:14But seven out of eight quarters, he was a disaster.
20:18Could Wentz actually be like, hey, look, Darnold did it as a veteran.
20:21Like, I know what I'm looking at.
20:22And I think I can execute.
20:24Why not?
20:24Like, why can't he execute?
20:28Listen, I'm sure he can.
20:30But again, not having a running game is a bit of a concern for me.
20:34That offensive line is a bit of, yeah.
20:37I mean, that's a, this is a concern across the board for Minnesota.
20:41The saving grace for them is that defense.
20:44And it does look like they've gotten a little bit healthier here.
20:47Akud, I believe, is back.
20:49Their linebacker is back.
20:53Theo Jackson looks like he's going to play.
20:55So they are going to have their complement back there on the defensive side of the ball.
21:00And again, that's what's going to have to win it for them.
21:03They got to keep the scoring down in order to give Wentz a opportunity to win this game.
21:09Well, they're going to force feed that ball to Jamar Chase.
21:11Good or bad interceptions, touchdowns.
21:12Let's see what happens here.
21:13How about Philadelphia?
21:14Rematch of the divisional round last year.
21:16Not going to be snowing this time around.
21:17Where Saquon Barkley went nuts.
21:19Then the Eagles took their foot off the gas pedal.
21:20Almost lost the game.
21:22If it wasn't for a Jalen Carter.
21:23Oh, look at this.
21:24Nobody's going to block me.
21:25Let me take a quick sack here on a third and long now.
21:27And away the Eagles went into the NFC Championship game.
21:29And eventually did win the Super Bowl.
21:31But look at this.
21:32Line opened up at four and a half.
21:34Now it's down to three and a half.
21:35Do we see threes on game day?
21:36The one thing we know about the Eagles.
21:37Good football team.
21:38Yes.
21:38Not on track on offense.
21:40Kellen Moore went to the Saints here.
21:41And now you're dealing with the new offensive coordinator.
21:43Things look a little bit stagnant right now.
21:45Are we seeing a lower scoring game?
21:46Or is this the game where the Eagles go.
21:48No, we're in the 20s every single game.
21:50We should be able to handle our business.
21:52And come away with a victory here.
21:55Well, we're going to find out.
21:56Against this defense is a different animal.
21:59I mean, this is now a one more year experienced.
22:02Young Rams defense here.
22:04Stafford, healthy weapons.
22:07This is going to be a test for the Eagles.
22:10Who haven't exactly been lighting.
22:12You know, anybody up here in their first couple of games.
22:15It looks like, to me, like, maybe that offense still a work in progress.
22:20Trying to get their feet under them here.
22:22They can win low scoring games.
22:24I mean, 24 to 20.
22:262017 doesn't strike me as a high scoring offense right now.
22:30Especially against a pretty darn good Rams defense.
22:34Eagles may win this game.
22:35But if you're going to leave me the hook, I'm going to take it with the Rams at three and a half.
22:39Yeah, I'm looking for a way to bet that game to see what comes out right.
22:42Because the Eagles are hearing it here.
22:44Certainly on local sports radio in the Philadelphia region.
22:46Where it's like, okay, well, the Eagles got to change things up.
22:49You know, you're running two tight end sets.
22:5090% of the time on the field, you're running the football.
22:52You got to change those tendencies.
22:53Maybe the Eagles do.
22:54That's a pretty good football game that we're going to watch this weekend.
22:57Nonetheless, Denver and Los Angeles Chargers.
23:00This line is a little bit fishy to me, Joe.
23:02Open up a two and a half as a favorite towards the Chargers.
23:04Still sits at most outlets right now at a two and a half.
23:07Looking at the ticket count, close to seven out of every ten tickets coming in on the Chargers.
23:11And you probably would agree, they should be a public darling right now after their first two games.
23:15But something tells me, Denver has the ability to rise to the occasion.
23:18I'm interested to see where this line actually ends up on Sunday.
23:24Which version of defenses do we get in this game for the Chargers and the Broncos?
23:30Like, do we get the Chargers on a short week that shows up like they did against the Raiders?
23:36Or, how about the Broncos?
23:39Do they show up like they did against Tennessee?
23:42Or do we get 900 yards of offense for Herbert like we just watched Danny Dimes light him up?
23:48But, to me, the big concern here is that the Broncos lose that Indy game twice.
23:53Have they moved past it?
23:55Are they able to correct the stupid mistakes here and shore up that defense?
24:01I think they will.
24:03There is no home field advantage for the Chargers here in any way, shape, or form.
24:08So, I like the Broncos.
24:10I like them even more in teasers this week, Donnie.
24:13How about this game?
24:15You want offense?
24:15You might get it here.
24:16Why?
24:16Because the defenses have been downright atrocious on both sides here.
24:21Dallas and Chicago.
24:22It's Dak Prescott.
24:23It's obviously Caleb Williams.
24:24But this total up from 47 and a half now until 50 because last week, neither one of these defenses could stop their opponent.
24:31And maybe we're thinking the same thing.
24:32Decent weather conditions in Chicago expected here as is in the early months or, excuse me, early season of September.
24:39What are we getting?
24:40Because is this where the defenses bounce back or Caleb Williams finally shows up or you open things up?
24:45Because Chicago can't afford to go to 0-3.
24:46We know that.
24:47The Dallas Cowboys looking for a victory on the road.
24:49But it is roughly a pick-em out here between these two.
24:52I always lean towards the home team.
24:54And I tell you, I'm actually leaning towards the Bears in this one, Joe.
24:56Even though they got their head taken off last week by the Lions.
25:02Yeah, no, they did.
25:04And how they opened up as a favorite against Dallas was hysterical because the market quickly readjusted that line here.
25:13And now you've got Dallas as the slight favorite on the road against this Bears team.
25:19And I'm with you, Donnie.
25:20I think the Bears' money has not hit yet.
25:23I think the Bears' money will hit before kickoff.
25:26And if you can get the plus money now and you like Chicago at home, I would grab this here.
25:33I do not like that Dallas defense.
25:36Caleb Williams, if you're going to turn the corner, this would be a good defense to get it going with.
25:42Roma Dunze showing up with a couple touchdowns last week in a big-time losing effort.
25:46But still, he's probably going to be eyed up again this week for some big target action.
25:50Sunday night football, Kansas City and New York.
25:52The game kind of stinks, but it's kind of intriguing at the same time because why?
25:56Kansas City doesn't have a win yet on the season.
25:58And you want to see if they can possibly go 0-3.
26:00Xavier Worthy did practice in a limited capacity yesterday on a Wednesday.
26:04Something to keep an eye on because they need him back in the worst way.
26:06But they, talking about the Chiefs, open up at 6.5, now down to 5.5 at FanDuel.
26:11Still 6s and 6.5s across the landscape here and a 44.5 total.
26:15Can the Giants move the football against the Chiefs?
26:16Or are the Chiefs actually in trouble and in danger of going 0-3 against a bad Giants team?
26:23No, they're not.
26:25The Chiefs are going to roll this game here.
26:27And I know it's trying, oh, you can't play road favorite and lay that many points.
26:33Yes, yes, you can.
26:34The Chiefs will bounce back in this spot.
26:37They should have won Travis Kelsey that game against Philadelphia last week.
26:42And they had an opportunity to beat the Chargers here.
26:46They have no problem beating teams over the years they're supposed to beat.
26:51I think they will.
26:53And Dable will very firmly be on the hot seat after this game.
26:58Ah, no way.
26:59Uh-huh.
27:00Mauer loves the guy.
27:00Hey, man, Jackson Dart's coming in.
27:02Give me another year.
27:03Like, you know what?
27:03I think you're right here.
27:04Stick around.
27:05Joe Shane, do you want to sign bad free agents every single year?
27:07Yeah, come on, man.
27:08Get out here and do that business here.
27:09We'll have some fun.
27:11Detroit and Baltimore.
27:11We're not going to get to this game, but it's Monday night.
27:13And boy, what a crown jewel that is from the Charm City that we're going to talk about later on Friday and also certainly on Monday.
27:20Cam's coming up next.
27:21Let's go.
27:21We love energy on the early line.
27:25You need energy in the morning.
27:26Specifically, we have an NFL game on deck, an afternoon of Major League Baseball, and who knows?
27:31The Ryder Cup on the horizon.
27:33It's Donnie Wright said it's Joe Ranieri.
27:34And the energy man is here.
27:36It's Cam Stewart, the prime minister, joining us on a Thursday.
27:40Thank you, Cam, for bringing the energy that I know you will.
27:44Thank you, guys.
27:45I'd like to thank the mayor of Miami for getting me fired up.
27:47You know, I don't care about the chase.
27:49You should have beat your Eagles.
27:50Donnie could have beat the Bolts.
27:52You're right, Joe.
27:52You think there's going to be a boat race time?
27:54Just absolutely cut them.
27:56Hey, and this could happen tonight.
27:58What Bills team shows up, fellas?
28:00The one that wants to absolutely annihilate Miami and name their score or, you know, just kind of play around with them like a cat and a mouse, you know what I mean?
28:07And just win the game.
28:08That spread is so high.
28:09But, guys, when we're looking at things, it's hard to lay that kind of point.
28:13Like, you're looking at the points going, what am I doing here?
28:15I do like over in this game, guys.
28:17I know a lot of these games, these primetime games, I first lean under.
28:20But I think just the Bills' offense in general can score some points.
28:24And conversely, the Jets didn't do it.
28:26But the Bills' defense has some holes, Donnie.
28:28You guys know it's a little bit leaky.
28:30So maybe Tua and Miami could get some touchdowns there.
28:33That 49 and a half, it looks a little bit light to me, guys.
28:36I lean Bills, but laying lumber like that.
28:39Last week, guys, birds.
28:41People laugh at themes.
28:42I was telling Kevin Walsh yesterday, did you know birds went 5-0, ATS,
28:47and straight up last week?
28:48I'm looking for a theme this week.
28:50It might be religious.
28:52Saints, Cardinals.
28:54But Cardinals also falls into the bird and religion theme.
28:58But I'm a Seahawk.
29:00I'll give you the chart, Joe.
29:02It's very complicated.
29:03You know, cowboy theme.
29:04Anyway, we got a lot of them.
29:06But I'm going to say, as a Seahawks fan, and we talked about this last week, they go in there to Pittsburgh, they beat the Steelers.
29:15Now you come back home against the Saints team and you go, okay, it's going to be seven and a half.
29:19Donnie, I'm a Seattle fan.
29:21And I'm telling you, I like the Saints this week.
29:23I think it's too many damn points.
29:25They've been hanging with all their opponents.
29:27Could have beat the Niners.
29:28Had the ball last in their first week, too, against the Arizona Cardinals.
29:33Seattle's just one of these teams.
29:34I know they eventually will have a breakout win and smash somebody at home.
29:37But that's a lot of points, guys.
29:40Joe, I am – you remember the day when I worked with you?
29:43I found so much garbage in the dumpster.
29:45It was ridiculous.
29:46I'm looking at teams like Tennessee this week.
29:49Carolina.
29:50The Saints.
29:51It's going to be one of my – bug my nose this week, Donnie.
29:55Yeah, but Donnie, bad teams can win in cover, too, in the National Football League.
29:59It's a week-to-week league.
30:00You know what I mean?
30:01Like, I'm on the Giants last week.
30:02They almost win that game outright.
30:03Things like this happen.
30:05So, I'm looking at desperate teams who need wins.
30:08And another thing is, I know – who's been the most disappointing team in the league with you guys?
30:12Would you say Bronco is one of them?
30:14I like the Broncos to beat the Volts, too.
30:16I'll take the two-and-a-half slash money line.
30:19Broncos bouncing back.
30:20Joe always has something to say there about those Denver Broncos.
30:22Can they lose two games in a row just because they couldn't get over that Colts victory?
30:26I want to get back to this Thursday night football game, Cam.
30:28You brought up some pretty good statistics here of this.
30:30I do think the Miami Dolphins are not the team that goes, well, the best way we can do it,
30:35which, again, theory would be let's keep Buffalo off the field.
30:37They're not going to line up and run the ball 45 times tonight.
30:40That's not what they do.
30:41They're going to go down swinging at this point, which means extra opportunities for the Buffalo Bills.
30:45And if you watched last week against the Jets, the Bills were just bored in the second half.
30:49They knew that the Jets could not move the football at all.
30:52If you get Miami moving the football early, that launches the Bills into, oh, we can run this up on them,
30:58and we can have a lot of fun on offense.
30:59How do you bet this game, not from a side perspective or even from a total perspective,
31:03I'm having a tough time saying, which Buffalo Bill do I love tonight in the odds market?
31:08Really?
31:09It's a great question.
31:10I know with the Dolphins, H.A.N.'s my guy.
31:12They're running back.
31:13I have the feeling there's going to be some quick hitters out of the backfield.
31:15And let's remember, last week against New England, he stepped out of bounds.
31:19They could have won that game.
31:20So I'm looking, you know what, Donnie?
31:22Buffalo has so many weapons on their team, I'm thinking, okay, who do we get acclimated in this point?
31:26Shakir will be open a lot.
31:28I know Cook's going to get his touches, but it could be a key on Coleman day.
31:31I'm starting to think he is coming around.
31:33We've been waiting for him.
31:34He was great at Florida State, and I'm seeing a chemistry being built with Josh Allen in this spot.
31:40So I'm looking at key on Coleman numbers.
31:41They're a little bit lower.
31:42And guys, this is what we have to think about tonight.
31:45Backup running backs and stuff into like the anytime touchdown, like eight to one market and over.
31:50Because if the Bills destroy these guys, we're going to see backups in the game.
31:54You know what I mean?
31:55So it could be very, very interesting.
31:57Guys that aren't on the board.
31:58But, Donnie, for Miami HN and for the Bills, I'm going to attack Keyon Coleman tonight.
32:02First touchdown, I usually take a tight end.
32:04I'm going back to my boy Kincaid.
32:06He's been good to me.
32:07When I hit him at 16 to one before, I'm going to do it again.
32:09Love tight ends for first touchdown.
32:11Good numbers.
32:12All right.
32:14That's what I like.
32:15Feels like you better hit it early.
32:17It really does, though, Cam, right?
32:19You better hit it early because the way Buffalo runs the ball, I don't know how many points Miami's going to add to it in the second half.
32:26So first half, 25 and a half total points, Cam.
32:30If they're going to score, they better score early.
32:32Otherwise, that second half could be all Buffalo and Cook running all over that Miami team.
32:38You're right, Joe.
32:39And another thing we have to do is the reason I'm liking this angle is because I think Miami actually comes out and does something early in this game.
32:46I think they can actually score a touchdown or whatever, and that helps the total.
32:49But if they lie down and die for Buffalo, why would Buffalo risk anything?
32:53They're just going to roll all day, three-yard runs, four-yard runs, kick, kick, kick, kick, kick, kick, kick, kick.
32:58So that's what they're going to do.
32:59So I'm expecting early points.
33:00Good call by Ranieri.
33:01The first half over a look.
33:03And Donnie, I've been following golf.
33:05I'm watching the Open to France.
33:07Yeah.
33:07French Open, whatever that is.
33:08Watch him now.
33:09They just started, but I got a guy at 25 to 1.
33:12He's currently 20.
33:14Adrian Sadie lost in the playoff to Alex Noren last week, and he finished fifth in the tournament before.
33:19He's also French.
33:20They're playing in France.
33:21I like this guy's form right now.
33:23So that's a guy I'm looking at.
33:24We've got all weekend to bet this stuff.
33:26Remember the name.
33:27Adrian Sadie.
33:29Bonjour.
33:31Bonjour.
33:32Bonjour, baby.
33:33By the way, Cam, if we're looking this weekend in the pro football game,
33:37a lot of backup quarterbacks are slated to play.
33:40How do you deal with that?
33:41Like Browning and Cincinnati, you take a look at obviously Tyrod Taylor and the New York Jets.
33:44How do you deal with this?
33:46I love it, Donnie.
33:46Want to know why?
33:47I get line value with guys who I think are just as good.
33:50The only difference is, am I going to say Browning is as good as Burrow?
33:53No, he's not as good as Joe Burrow.
33:55But you know what he does?
33:55He comes back and covers numbers like he did the last game.
33:58What the hell is the difference between Tyrod Taylor and Justin Fields?
34:02Nothing.
34:03Actually, Tyrod Taylor throws a better ball.
34:05So, I love backup quarterbacks, Donnie, because you're not laying numbers with these guys.
34:10You're getting two or three points of line value.
34:11I was like, oh, these guys are backup.
34:13He's going to suck.
34:14I tend to disagree.
34:15I love betting on backup quarterbacks.
34:17I think they put us in good spots.
34:19We get better numbers, and they're there to play for something.
34:22Browning's a good quarterback.
34:23I watched him at Washington.
34:24Sure, he'll throw a few picks, but he also is pretty damn good, and he knows the offense flawlessly.
34:29And he loves to find Jamar Chase here.
34:31A lot of fun, certainly, this weekend you can have in the NFL.
34:34But always a lot of fun when Cam Stewart joins us right here on the Sports Grid Network for the early line.
34:38Bring in that energy, Cam.
34:39Keep the energy high for the rest of the grid day.
34:41Thanks again for joining us.
34:43Have it!
34:43Love it!
34:44Where does the time go?
34:46Two hours, sometimes just not enough.
34:47For all the fun that we have on the Sports Grid Network right here on the early line.
34:51We do it every single day, 7 a.m. to 9 a.m. Eastern.
34:53Your place to be to start your Sports Grid Day.
34:56And we always like to reach out to the public and see exactly where they're going today with some information.
35:02This is our Fave the Public Poll.
35:04Seems like we're ready for this game tonight.
35:14Going through all the information, letting it play out, and seeing what happens tonight.
35:18It could be a blowout.
35:19It could be a close game.
35:20It could be a major upset.
35:21It could be a lot of points.
35:22It could be a little bit of points.
35:23That's the question we asked today.
35:24At Sports Grid, our X account here on social media.
35:27The question today, what is your best bet for Dolphins versus Bills on Thursday night football?
35:32Four options.
35:33Over, under, Dolphins, or Bills.
35:36For me, I went contrarian, even though I don't love it here.
35:39I actually voted for the under 49.5.
35:41I'm the 21% out here.
35:43I don't love it, but I'm just saying, like, is there a way that everybody just expects a ton of points?
35:48I just went contrarian there to see what happens.
35:50What do you think, Joe?
35:51Yeah, I mean, I know a lot of guys that are taking the points with Miami here tonight, and, you know, history tells us that, you know, an 0-2 team in this spot getting more than three and a half points, it's been well over 60% that they have covered since 2010.
36:11So it's a good spot to back a team like Miami desperate here.
36:16Having said that, to me, I think it's going to be a tale of two halves.
36:20If Miami is not in this game early, Donnie, then this game is going under in a big way in the second half, because I just don't trust the Dolphins to stop the Bills' offense enough, and the Bills with that running game will just chew the clock up like they did last week against the Jets, and it was over in the first half.
36:40That's what you got to worry about here tonight.
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