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00:00By the way, public might not always be wrong, but this week,
00:03the Indianapolis Colts are favored by the public here.
00:06Close to six out of every ten tickets against who?
00:08The Kansas City Chiefs at Arrowhead.
00:10Joe, this line opened up four and a half for Kansas City.
00:12We're now down to three and a half.
00:13But yesterday, we got some news that Daniel Jones banged up that calf.
00:17We'll see those practice reports come out today.
00:19It feels like another last stand for Kansas City,
00:21because the one thing we do know,
00:23last night probably wasn't a great night there for Chiefs backers making the playoffs.
00:26You have a win by Houston, another loss by, you know, the Buffalo Bills.
00:30Most teams are holding that card of, hey, we already beat you, Kansas City Chiefs.
00:34Do the Chiefs go under .500 after this game?
00:37What's your spread line here?
00:39Well, Donnie, it's for the first time in forever.
00:42It appears that the public and the market is finally fading the Kansas City Chiefs here.
00:50Because, yes, the look ahead line here, Donnie, four and a half, five was it.
00:55Then, of course, they lose to Denver last week.
00:58And now, all of a sudden, you know, usually it wouldn't matter, Donnie, right?
01:02The Kansas City Chiefs would get money regardless of what the outcome was the week prior.
01:07Not anymore.
01:07The public is tossing in the towel here.
01:10And all the money and all the tickets have been on Indy here.
01:15I'd be very careful with sticking a fork in the Chiefs just yet here.
01:19This is a team that's won the AFC West every year since 2016, Donnie.
01:24I doubt they're rolling over here because the Colts are coming to town.
01:29All the money and the tickets, Joe.
01:31Perfect segue to our next game.
01:32It's actually on Cleveland.
01:34Eight out of every ten tickets.
01:35Eighty percent of the money.
01:36But the line, look ahead, Joe, is minus two and a half as a favorite towards Vegas.
01:41All those tickets and money got to be going towards Cleveland, right?
01:43Nope.
01:44How about three and a half and fours in the marketplace now?
01:46Shedora Sanders in Vegas.
01:48I wonder if he's going to stay out late and have some cocktails.
01:50What's the spread line?
01:51Bingo here, Dye.
01:53I mean, all the – I mean, look at it.
01:55It's ridiculous.
01:56This thing was one and a half, two.
01:58Now I'm seeing fours popping up, which means maybe the fate of Shedora Sanders is on by the pros.
02:06But the public thinks that defense of Cleveland might very well be good enough to get it done here.
02:12I doubt it very much.
02:14Let's take a look at what happened last night in the NFL, a big-time win for the Texans.
02:19And where does that lead the Buffalo Bills for the remaining part of this season?
02:24Let's get the party started, people, for a football Friday right here on the Sports Grid Network at the Early Line.
02:28We set the table for the morning so you can enjoy the rest of your day with all the knowledge you need to maybe play some wagers this weekend.
02:34And, oh, my goodness, 1 o'clock, Arrowhead on Sunday.
02:38They welcome in the Indianapolis Colts.
02:40And the Colts aren't even a favorite here despite having a much better record.
02:43Rested and ready are the Colts, but maybe just a little banged up coming into this football game.
02:48A three-and-a-half point spread here for Kansas City as the favorite in a total of around 49-and-a-half to 50-and-a-half, depending where you're shopping.
02:54News comes down yesterday, though.
02:56Daniel Jones' calf injury popped up on the practice report.
03:00Make sure you check that practice report here on a Friday to see if he's limited or if he doesn't practice, where that leads.
03:06But the Kansas City Chiefs, week number two in must-win mode, can they win this game?
03:11And should I say, Joe, will they win this game?
03:15Yeah, well, that – and I think this is going to be decided about which defense shows up and shows out.
03:21I mean, listen, we know what Mahomes and company are capable of.
03:25They're a little different this year, and we saw what a really good defense can do to Denver to kind of shut down Rice and Worthy and no assemblance of a running game.
03:37And it limits this Kansas City team.
03:40But, again, that was in Denver.
03:42This is a totally different animal being at Arrowhead.
03:45I'm shocked the public has sold their stock in Kansas City.
03:50But I had said from the beginning of the week, Donnie, if this line got down to just a field goal, I'm on Kansas City because I got to see this defense of the Colts now.
04:01As good as it looks now on paper, it's got to be put together.
04:05They have allowed, what, a lot of points in the last couple of weeks, even after acquiring Sauce Gardner and Bradley Chubbs.
04:13So, they're going to have to put it together in a hurry if I'm going to be backing this Indy team on the road outdoors at Arrowhead.
04:21To me, it's advantage Kansas City.
04:24You know what's interesting, too, about this Kansas City Chiefs team with Andy Reid and Patrick Holmes, one of those penalized teams in the NFL.
04:29You cannot put yourself behind the sticks and expect to win football games.
04:33You saw it last week against Denver.
04:34Whether it's just, you know, Taylor lining up repeatedly in the backfield for false starts or illegal formations here,
04:39you have to actually protect the football and run the football this week in Kansas City.
04:44I'm interested because this feels like, again, another referendum game for me on the Indianapolis Colts.
04:49Go in there and prove it to me.
04:50Win in Arrowhead.
04:51And this isn't even the best Chiefs team we've seen over the past couple of years, but also for the Kansas City Chiefs.
04:56I'm going to ask you this question, Joe, before we move on.
04:58Chiefs lose this game.
04:59Do they even make the playoffs?
05:00Yeah, this is, again, I think this is back against the wall desperation time for a championship team and quarterback and coach and organization.
05:11So I expect them to leave it all out there, Donnie, at home.
05:16I think it's got bounce back.
05:18And we know we've seen them lose games and bounce back in years past here.
05:23This isn't an all-world Colts team, despite the record.
05:26I do think that they are, win or lose, they are not going to leave anything out there on the field.
05:33This is going to be a playoff game for Kansas City.
05:37Healthy in the secondary, too, now for the Colts.
05:39That's going to be a fun game to watch in a 1 o'clock game here.
05:42Usually we get those Chiefs games at 425, so it'll be an early window game.
05:45Another early window game.
05:46Might be a blowout in a bloodbath, Joe.
05:48The Seattle Seahawks travel on the road to take on Tennessee.
05:51I don't know what Tennessee does on offense.
05:52Apparently nothing.
05:54I don't think they practice offense during the week.
05:56But the Seattle Seahawks, they're going to be motivated and angry from their loss last week.
06:00A really good defense with a really good pass rush and an offense that should be able to exploit Tennessee.
06:05This total is only 40.5 points, Joe, down from 43.5.
06:08But look at the side.
06:0913.5.
06:10A two-touchdown favorite on the road for the Seahawks.
06:14Yeah, Donnie, to me, this was an under from the get-go here.
06:18You're not going to get a lot of scoring from the Titans.
06:21I am not anxious in this spot to run and lay two touchdowns with the Seahawks this late in the season, Donnie.
06:29History tells us and the trends tell us it's a money burner expecting teams to do this.
06:36And we usually, I mean, here we are, what, heading into week 12, Donnie, and we've got road favorites laying two touchdowns.
06:44It's like, come on, big effort by the defense last week against Houston at home.
06:49I think they make another big effort here.
06:52A lot of running by Seattle.
06:54I think they're just going to be happy with a win and get out of Dodge.
06:57And I would still bet the under, even at 40.5.
07:01Minnesota and Green Bay from the frozen tundra of Lambeau Field.
07:04Won't be that frozen, Joe.
07:05Close to 50 degrees by the time we're in the third or fourth quarter of this game.
07:09But a touchdown favorite for Green Bay sitting at minus six and a half the total.
07:13Also, Joe, dropping the lookahead line, 43 and a half.
07:16We're now seeing 41 and a half.
07:17Why?
07:18Because J.J.
07:18McCarthy looked pathetic.
07:19And there's a lot, a lot to love right now from that Green Bay offenses.
07:23Defenses might rule the day.
07:24But also, a running game could be key on either side.
07:28Josh Jacobs is like, man, why do we even play games at MetLife anymore?
07:32I think you're the first player ever to get hurt on MetLife and only miss one day of practice.
07:38Yeah.
07:39Where does that rank on your favorite stadium surfaces?
07:41Definitely the worst.
07:42It's always been the worst.
07:43And I kind of, I know if I ever play there again, I would never talk about it.
07:48Because I talked about it all week, how bad it was.
07:51And it beat me down.
07:53So, yeah.
07:56First drive of the game, Joe.
07:57Bangs his knee into that turf.
07:58Wasn't right.
07:59Left the game.
08:00Thank goodness there's no structural damage.
08:01But they're favored by a touchdown at home on the grass.
08:05See if he actually lines up there.
08:06Talking about Jacobs for this game.
08:08Where are we leaning?
08:08Is this going to be a surprise for Minnesota?
08:10Or Green Bay is like, no, no, no, no, no, no.
08:12J.J., you ain't winning no games here, man.
08:14Come on.
08:15Yeah.
08:16Listen, I don't know.
08:17There are already.
08:18When's the last time Green Bay won a game at home?
08:21Like, it's not the end-all, be-all that it has been in years past.
08:26Like, oh, good luck beating Green Bay at Lambeau.
08:28Now, they've lost two games now back-to-back in spots in which they were big-time favorites
08:33and couldn't get it done.
08:34And here they are again, laying nearly a touchdown against a division rival who also has a pretty
08:39good running back that, oh, yeah, played for Green Bay and Aaron Jones.
08:44So, this should be an interesting game.
08:46I think this is going to be all about the defenses.
08:49This kind of low total, if I can get six-and-a-half, Donnie, maybe even seven, I'd be willing
08:54to take it with the Vikings.
08:56How about this?
08:57Another blowout in the 1 o'clock window.
08:59Could be the Jets are on the road to take on the Baltimore Ravens who escaped last week
09:03from Cleveland with a victory.
09:04This line opened up 14-and-a-half.
09:07Still sits around 13-and-a-half.
09:08It's just about every book out there.
09:0944-and-a-half.
09:10But the key here, Tyrod Taylor inserted as the starting quarterback for the Jets.
09:14I don't know how much that changes, but at least they might get a forward pass or two here.
09:19Well, listen, the Jets are better than their 2-and-8 record, Donnie, which is evident by
09:25the fact that they are 500-5-and-5 against the number here.
09:30They left a couple of wins, very winnable games out early in the season.
09:34That could have changed everything.
09:37But again, the Ravens are not the Ravens.
09:39They are still dealing with a ton of injuries.
09:41Lamar is not 100%.
09:43Derek Henry is wearing down in front of our eyes here.
09:49And the Jets are playing with house money.
09:50They have nothing to lose.
09:51And now they might be able to push the ball down the field.
09:55I'm not running to the window to lay two touchdowns with the Baltimore Ravens either here.
09:59Sure, Baltimore will win this game.
10:02But a blowout?
10:03I'm not too sure of that right now.
10:06Yeah, let's see if they can get that dub.
10:07I do think Baltimore needs to get back to their ways on offense, dropping those mandatory 28-plus-point games.
10:12And maybe they can do it against a Jets defense that's trying their best but maybe just doesn't have the talent here.
10:17How about another blowout possible, Joe, in the 1 o'clock window?
10:20That's those New York Giants going on the road to take on Detroit.
10:22Detroit is angry after losing a game against the Philadelphia Eagles last week.
10:26They look to bounce back at home in the Dome where they're usually very good on offense.
10:30The Giants, we don't know who their starting quarterback is going to be.
10:32Jameis Winston looked good last week and had a fourth-quarter lead against the Green Bay Packers.
10:37But now Jackson Dart trying to clear concussion protocol and get his team back on the rails.
10:43He can't play this weekend.
10:44Can he, Joe?
10:4549-and-a-half is the total as well.
10:47Sheesh.
10:48I mean, that's the key, right?
10:51Is he playing?
10:52Is he not playing?
10:54There's a difference.
10:54I almost kind of hope Jameis does because then I would absolutely look at the over.
11:01Because not only might Jameis throw a couple of touchdowns for the Giants,
11:05he will absolutely throw a couple of pick sixes for Detroit as well.
11:10So I think the over is absolutely in play here.
11:15And I wouldn't expect any designed runs for Jackson Dart if he, in fact, does play in this game.
11:21That's the problem.
11:22Like, what are you actually going to do with Dart when he gets back?
11:23Because we know he's athletic and what has been working for the Giants is he's running.
11:27Now, he can't run at this point.
11:28You don't want to leave him in the pocket where he gets teed off from Aiden Hutchinson.
11:31A lot of question marks going around and can easily be answered by, just don't play him this week.
11:36Wait until he's completely healthy, out of concussion protocol for a full week and then move ahead with it.
11:40Just my two cents there.
11:42Let's get the two cents from Tom Vecchio coming up and how he's playing this weekend's action.
11:47It's a football Friday right here on the Sports Grid Network.
11:49The early line.
11:50We get down the business every weekday, Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, and Fridays,
11:54because the weekend is here and the time to have some fun is right now.
11:58Sonny right side, Joe Renier.
11:59We welcome in Tom Vecchio to talk with us on a Friday morning on deck with a big weekend of college football and pro football action.
12:07Yeah, I'm ready to go.
12:08We are coming off a bit of a weird game last night, as we were just talking about.
12:12We have some big spreads this weekend.
12:14We have some close games.
12:16You know, obviously the weekend is going to be highlighted by the Chiefs and the Colts, the Eagles and the Cowboys.
12:20You know, Packers, Vikings, I would like to think has a little more juice.
12:23Maybe the Vikings can actually do something on offense, but I'm ready to go.
12:27Let's have some fun, Tom, in the AFC.
12:29We'll get to some of the action this weekend.
12:31But what we saw last night, eight sacks against Josh Allen, looking pedestrian.
12:35That's the second straight road game.
12:36They look like they just weren't competitive or ready to play.
12:40What are your feelings now on the Buffalo Bills?
12:41As I said, plus 550 to win the AFC.
12:44And they're not going to win the division.
12:46They're going to have to do it on the road.
12:47But when you look around on the talent, it's like, I don't know, maybe the playoffs are different.
12:51What did you find out about the Bills last night?
12:53So, you know, two weeks ago, I should say last week, you know, they put up all these points.
12:57They're at home, though.
12:58Maybe we want to add a little, you know, caveat to that.
13:00They're at home.
13:01They play so much better at home.
13:02You know, but last night on the road against a tough defense, they're also shorthanded without Dalton Kincaid.
13:08And they have Keon Coleman, the second-year receiver.
13:10He was inactive again.
13:11Obviously, there's, like, team issues going on.
13:13It wasn't an injury.
13:15So, the fact that they chose to sit him when they knew Kincaid was out is concerning.
13:19I'm not saying I'm going to give them a pass on this game.
13:22But not being at full health on the road on a short week against a very tough defense was a tough spot to begin with.
13:27So, how they respond in the next two weeks is going to be the most telling.
13:31And is this game that we saw last night against the Texans, is that a bad game or is a sign of bad things to come?
13:37We just don't know the answer yet.
13:40Yeah, short week on the road.
13:42But it was a tough spot all the way around there, going up against the number one defense in the NFL here.
13:48But another pretty good defense here is Seattle.
13:52And boy, oh boy, talk about Legion of Doom 2.0 here.
13:57They are on fire.
13:58But so is Sam Darnold if he's throwing it to the right team.
14:03But I'm not running to the window to lay 14 with them here.
14:07Is there another way we should approach this game against the Titans?
14:10Yeah, Seattle's awesome.
14:12They're coming off a terrible game.
14:13And I know it was close laid and they had their chances.
14:17But ultimately, even if they won that game, Sam Darnold looked terrible last week.
14:20Like, absolutely terrible.
14:21Throwing the four kicks against a divisional opponent.
14:24Like, the biggest game they've had to the season to date.
14:26And he was terrible.
14:27So, it's a terrible defense in the Titans.
14:30Again, you don't want to lay 14 points, especially on the road.
14:32And I wonder what this line would be if the Seahawks were at home.
14:35You know, maybe they'd push it closer to 20, which would be insane.
14:37But I want to back Sam Darnold having over one and a half touchdowns.
14:41And a part of this is because he's coming off such a terrible game where they need him, like, to get the mojo back.
14:46Like, they need the offense to be moving down the field.
14:49And, yeah, you can tear apart Titans defense.
14:51And it's not going to tell us anything.
14:52Like, the game against the Rams is obviously more telling.
14:54But I wouldn't lay the points with the Seahawks.
14:57But I want to back Sam Darnold over one and a half passing touchdowns.
15:00He gets back on track.
15:01And everyone will forget about the Rams game.
15:03And eventually, they'll forget about this game when they score 30-some-odd points.
15:07Let's get to some other games here on Sunday.
15:09And you can find some dollars and some gold in some trashy environments and games, which Atlanta and New Orleans.
15:15Not a sexy game, Tom.
15:16But if you are playing this, which way are you going?
15:19Now, I'm looking to back the Saints.
15:21I have a little bit of a piece of the Saints money line.
15:23I got that at plus money right before Panix was ruled out.
15:26That line has moved a little bit.
15:28But I want to go to Alvin Kamara, over 13 and a half receiving yards.
15:31This is a really low line.
15:33And you look back at his recent game logs, he is all over the place.
15:36He's up at 30.
15:37He's down at 3.
15:38He's in the 20.
15:39He's down at 2.
15:39Like, he is all over the place.
15:40But the matchup against the Falcons is one of the best.
15:43We see the Falcons, they've allowed 20-plus receiving yards to opposing running backs in five free games.
15:48Some of these games, you know, we do see, you know, Christian McCaffrey going for 70-plus.
15:52But consistently, we're seeing a variety of running backs, whether it's A-Chan, whether it's Trevion Henderson, obviously McCaffrey in there.
15:57They are all going, you know, plus 20 yards into the 40s sometimes.
16:01So, I like the role that Kamara has.
16:03Shucks should be looking to him.
16:04If there's going to be any saving grace for the Falcons, it's going to be their defense getting pressure on a rookie quarterback.
16:10That's what's going to cause him.
16:11So, if he has to get the ball out early, Kamara should be there.
16:13Should we be looking to fade Kurt Cousins at this point here, Tom, in the prop betting market?
16:22Because he looks about – he looks like he has spent the entire season on the sideline figuring out ways he's going to spend the $180 million they're giving him.
16:31And could care less – I mean, 6 of 14 for 48 yards last week in relief.
16:35What are we expecting here from Cousins?
16:38You know, frankly, I don't know it off the top of my head.
16:41But, you know, the more I think about it now, is the Falcons' team total under the way to go?
16:45You know, the Saints haven't been great, and we know that.
16:48But I feel at times, like, the Saints haven't actually, like, show some fight.
16:52Like, talent is not always there, but they show some effort at home.
16:55So, if the Falcons just can't move the ball – like, could Kirk Cousins go over his passing prop and they're still terrible?
17:01Sure.
17:01Do I want to bet on Kirk Cousins?
17:03No.
17:03Do I want to bet against that?
17:04Probably not.
17:05But the team total, the offense being so efficient, the fact that their field goal history this season has been terrible.
17:11So, they could just not even get to 12 points, let alone 14 or 16.
17:16Hot game this weekend, Tom.
17:17And, no, we're not talking about Indianapolis and Kansas City.
17:20No, we're talking about right now it's Cleveland and Las Vegas.
17:23Everybody wants to have an opinion on Shador Sanders in his first start.
17:27Does he throw a lot?
17:28Does he throw a little?
17:29Do they run the football?
17:29Can they win this game?
17:30They're underdogs here.
17:32But Joe and I talked earlier in the show.
17:34The public can't get enough of betting the Cleveland Browns this weekend.
17:38How do you approach this game?
17:39I don't know if Max Crosby is going to play.
17:43I know he popped up in the injury report, I have to assume.
17:45But, frankly, the Raiders aren't a great team.
17:47I wouldn't lay over three and a half.
17:49I know that's the last time I saw the line.
17:50I wouldn't lay that.
17:51You know, Miles Garrett could change the course of this game by himself with how dreadful the Raiders' offensive line is.
17:57You know, strip sacks and fumbles against Geno Smith is very, very probable.
18:01Am I running to the window to bet the Browns at plus three and a half?
18:04No, but I think if the Browns are going to have success, it's going to be a big Quinchon Judkins game on the ground.
18:09He's going to have to carry the ball 25-plus times.
18:12Yeah, no, it does make some sense in this game where you lock it up, where you can go either way.
18:16The low totals there on Shadour for passing, but the passing attempts are close to 30 at this point.
18:21It's going to be a fun one to see how that one finishes out.
18:23And if the public is right, because the one thing we do know, at least one team is bringing a defense in this game.
18:27And that defense is the Cleveland Browns, one of the best in the NFL.
18:31Quick thoughts on Philadelphia and Dallas for you this week, Tom.
18:34You have the Eagles as a favorite here.
18:36But me as an Eagles fan, I don't know about this game.
18:38I'm not feeling too good.
18:40The – how the Eagles' offense operates is going to be the most important thing in this game.
18:45If they – like the Cowboys' defense got an injection of talent with the players coming back in the trades.
18:50They also had a very soft matchup last week against the Raiders.
18:52This is a terrible defense, though, still overall.
18:54If the Eagles can't get it done against this defense, that is a very concerning sign moving forward.
18:59Their defense is great, but they just have no offense right now.
19:03Steelers this weekend.
19:04Hmm.
19:05On the road to take on the Chicago Bears.
19:07And by the way, don't look now.
19:08The Chicago Bears turning out to be one of the better teams in the NFC.
19:11If they pick up a victory this weekend over Pittsburgh, you know what they get next week?
19:14On Black Friday, the Philadelphia Eagles in Philadelphia.
19:17Can you imagine a strong close to the season for the Bears that has them ranking one of the best teams in the NFC?
19:22That's Ben Johnson over there, NFL guru on offense.
19:26We'll see if that continues.
19:28But the Bears are favored this week on a 1 o'clock start on Sunday over Pittsburgh.
19:33Two and a half points.
19:34We don't know who the Pittsburgh quarterback is going to be.
19:37If I know anything about former Green Bay quarterbacks, Brett Favre, he was a crash test dummy.
19:42Broken, you know, hand, broken thumb on his throwing hand.
19:46Didn't matter.
19:47He still played football games.
19:48Aaron Rodgers is out there running around on a practice field.
19:50He's not doing that for his health at this age.
19:52I think he's going to play.
19:54And I don't think he should.
19:56I don't think he should, Joe.
19:57What do you think this weekend?
19:59I, well, listen, if it's not really a detriment, right?
20:03If it's not really affecting him being able to get the ball and it's obvious shouldn't affect him throwing the ball.
20:09It's not like he's a mobile quarterback and you got to worry about him getting hit anyway.
20:12Right.
20:13So you go with Aaron Rodgers.
20:15But if there is, you know, if it's a 70% Aaron Rodgers, Donnie, I'm with you.
20:21Why?
20:22I'd rather have a healthy Mason Rudolph there that who can been there, done that, shown that he's a competent backup quarterback.
20:31Because ultimately, the defense is going to have to be a big part of this win for Pittsburgh regardless, right?
20:38So the defense, I'd be more worried about.
20:42They've got to be able to get it done on the road.
20:44If they do, I don't really think it should much matter who the quarterback is from Pittsburgh this week.
20:50Yeah, and taking a look here at the practice reports coming out, did not practice on Wednesday for Jalen Warren, limited on Thursday.
20:57He's a little bit banged up.
20:58His price points are around 60 and a half.
21:00You would like to get a ground game because if you have Aaron Rodgers banged up and Jalen Warren, your top back banged up, that doesn't pose well.
21:06I actually like the Bears this weekend, but it is surprising to me that you're seeing that number still under three for the Bears playing good football and at home.
21:13And we don't even know who the quarterback is for Pittsburgh.
21:15And when they do show up, it might be a quarterback with a broken wrist.
21:18We'll see how that one actually turns out.
21:21Let's keep it moving down the list here.
21:22Seattle and Tennessee.
21:24Expectations in this game are a blowout.
21:26Seattle should be able to name their price, but it is a high number.
21:29It's two touchdowns on the road from an NFC to an AFC team and a low total, Joe, at 40 and a half.
21:36That low total isn't there because Seattle is really good on defense, which they do have a good defense.
21:41But it's there because Tennessee's offense, man, it stinks.
21:47It's really dumb.
21:48But they're a tough team to figure out, Donnie, right?
21:51Because, yes, they're one in nine.
21:53They've been blown out five times by more than 13 points.
21:58But, you know, they do have a crazy win against the Cardinals.
22:01And when you consider it, they've covered against the Broncos in week one.
22:05And now they've gone back.
22:06They've covered against the Chargers.
22:08They've covered against the Texans.
22:09And now you're asking Seattle, who's playing well, coming off of that loss.
22:13It's a sleepy spot.
22:15It's a letdown spot for Seattle.
22:18And I don't know.
22:19I mean, that's a lot of points here.
22:21I think it would have to be dog or pass for me in this one.
22:23How about dog or pass for you in this next game, Joe?
22:264-0-5 start out in Vegas.
22:29Shadur Sanders and the boys taking on Las Vegas and Geno Smith.
22:33This line opened up as a look-head, Joe.
22:35Minus two and a half as a favorite towards Las Vegas.
22:37Ooh, they were really bad on Monday night.
22:39Doesn't matter.
22:40They're as high as four at some outlets, despite all of the public interest coming in on Cleveland in this game.
22:46Shadur Sanders getting his first start.
22:47There's Kevin Stefanski talking about it.
22:50Shadur's going to start at quarterback.
22:51I think, you know, he's excited about the opportunity, but he's so focused on the work that goes into it.
22:58So, yeah, he's worked extremely hard at his craft.
23:01Like, you know, and I pointed this out, this is that rookie class.
23:04I mean, he fits in with these guys.
23:05They love football.
23:07They love what they're doing.
23:07They pour themselves into this thing.
23:09So, it's been fun to watch Shadur, fun to watch a lot of these young guys because we've done so many extra reps, extra individual periods to watch them work at their craft, which is, you know, part of one of the main parts of our job is the development of these players.
23:25I think Shadur is just going to be himself.
23:26I think that's what players appreciate other players when they're themselves.
23:30Let's put you on the hot seat, Joe Ranieri.
23:33You hear those comments from Stefanski going up against a bad Raiders defense, but that doesn't mean you can move the football and score at will.
23:39Shadur's first start, he's listed at a 158.5 prop for passing yards, which that's not going up against the steel curtain of the 70s.
23:48That's not Ray Lewis and the Ravens in the early 2000s.
23:51This is a horrendous defense.
23:53Should he be expected to throw for 160-plus yards here?
23:56I, no, I want nothing to do with this game.
24:03You got to be crazy in this game here, given the fact we got two 2-8 teams here going at it.
24:11And now the first start of a rookie here in Shadur Sanders, who went four of 16 in relief last week.
24:17And now you've got a Raiders secondary, which has been surprisingly good this year.
24:23They're middle of the road for takeaways per game.
24:27They still have Max Crosby.
24:29That's going to put a ton of pressure on this kid if he holds onto the ball too long.
24:34This, I don't trust either quarterback here.
24:37But he should, if they're going to win this game, he is going to have to throw for more than 150 yards, Donnie.
24:45I can tell you that here.
24:46Yeah, you saw Javante Williams run wild.
24:49You saw Dak Prescott have success.
24:51Pickens had a career a night, even after drinking all night.
24:53CeeDee Lamb even chipped in.
24:55We'll have 50, 60 yards and a touchdown here.
24:57That's a bad defense for Vegas.
24:59Look at the wide receiving options that you have here.
25:01Jerry Judy is 34 1⁄2 yards.
25:05Tillman is 27 1⁄2 yards.
25:07Fannin is 33 1⁄2.
25:08And Quinshawn Judkins, just to get a dump ball from the backfield, is 5 1⁄2.
25:12These numbers are so, like, this is a bad defense, and we're not even, oh, Donnie, they're in Cleveland.
25:17It's going to be 22 degrees with 50-mile-hour winds and rain or sleet and snow.
25:21You're in a dome.
25:22Like, something has to give.
25:23I feel like I need to get caught up in this game and just bet it multiple times and be like, you know what, Donnie?
25:28You're an idiot.
25:28Why did you even bet this game?
25:31Donnie, it's going to be very, very interesting.
25:35I do think if you believe Shadar Sanders having a week under his belt of practice with the starters,
25:41and if you think he is going to be better, then bet the Browns.
25:47If you don't, then there's no way you can bet the Browns at this point.
25:51Like, I do feel that it's almost like the referendum game.
25:56He's either going to have to be really good, which I mean by really good, 225 yards passing and a touchdown, right?
26:01Really good, quote-unquote.
26:02But if he throws for, like, 105, completes, like, seven passes, and they lose, like, it almost feels to me like he's going to, like, be out of the league.
26:11And it's not fair to do that to a rookie quarterback.
26:13It's really not on a bad football team because a lot of people on bad football teams don't play well.
26:17But it just feels like he really needs this game to show, like, at least he's competent, Joe.
26:22But if he isn't, where does that leave him in the Cleveland Browns?
26:25Well, that's the big question.
26:29And my point the entire time was, listen, Stefanski had every reason in the world to be thought this kid was the future of the team.
26:38He could have thrown him out there and had no problem.
26:42But he has been the third stringer on this team forever.
26:46And I'm sorry.
26:48I just, I think we're going to see it firsthand here.
26:51And it's not like he's got the greatest offensive line in the world and weapons and those types of things.
26:57But he's got to be competent.
26:59Can you be competent enough to be able to motivate this team?
27:03If not, Donnie, it could be over before she wrote.
27:06Because he's still just a fifth-round pick, and it costs you nothing to let him go.
27:11It was clear he wasn't prepared enough to play last week.
27:14Like, when you snap the football and just run around like a chicken with your head cut off, that's one thing.
27:18I wonder if he does it this week with a full week to prepare.
27:20But, again, it's one of those games where you would never watch.
27:22But now I want to watch just to see the way it goes.
27:25Jacksonville and Arizona, Joe, 4-0-5 start also here.
27:28Trevor Lawrence, big victory last week.
27:30They hammered the Chargers.
27:31Arizona looks like they have low defense.
27:33But Jacoby is just like, I'm cool.
27:34Let me throw it 60 times.
27:3647-and-a-half as a total in a dome here and a slight favor towards Jacksonville.
27:41I will be taking no unders with this Arizona team, especially at home, Donnie.
27:49It feels like points are coming.
27:52I mean, listen, Jacoby Brissett averaging about 26, 27 points to start with this team.
27:57Looks like they'll have Harrison Jr. back.
28:00There's no reason to think this won't be some sort of interesting shootout at some point in this game.
28:05Yeah, it feels like it is.
28:07Maybe another 50 completions or so from Jacoby Brissett.
28:09Who knows how he's doing it here.
28:11But also, Jacksonville looked good last week against that Chargers team.
28:14Can they continue that momentum and climb back in the playoff race, also in the AFC?
28:19We'll find out.
28:20More NFL action to come coming up next right here on The Early Line.
28:23All eyes on the practice report today on a football Friday.
28:26Why?
28:26Because the New England Patriots are going to travel to take on the Cincinnati Bengals.
28:29It should be a blow.
28:30We were as high as eight-and-a-half earlier this week.
28:32But now we're down below a touchdown and as low as five-and-a-half at multiple outlets
28:36as a favorite for New England over Cincinnati in a total of 51-and-a-half.
28:40Why is that?
28:41Cincinnati quarterback, 2TBD, to be determined.
28:45Don't think it's going to be flackle.
28:46Why?
28:46Joe Burrow has taken all the snaps this week with the starters.
28:50Anticipation of a start by Burrow.
28:52It's coming here, Joe.
28:53So where does that leave you with the Bengals getting five-and-a-half points?
28:57Yeah, well, it leaves me to an over, period.
29:00And don't overthink this, because to me, this is crazy.
29:03Burrow, listen, the one thing New England's, their bugaboo,
29:07is that they're not very good against the past.
29:09They're dominant against the run.
29:11You're not running on this defense of New England.
29:14But they are very susceptible to the passing game here.
29:18So it makes sense that the line has come with the idea that Burrow is going to play here in Week 12
29:24and that he's practiced full with the starters beginning on Wednesday, did it again yesterday.
29:31Even though he hasn't been announced, I think whether it's him or Flacco,
29:34the idea that Cincinnati is going to be able to get points.
29:38But if I'm New England, I also believe I'm going to be able to name my score in a lot of different ways as well here, Donnie,
29:44because I think Drake May and this team will have a field day not only running but throwing on them.
29:49So forget the side.
29:51I think all the value is in the total, and I think we're going to land in the mid-50s in this game.
29:57Philadelphia Eagles and the Dallas Cowboys, 425.
29:59Dallas looking to claim their season back.
30:01The Philadelphia Eagles beat them.
30:03Dallas' season will be over.
30:04So everything's on the line with the Eagles.
30:05Look ahead, line.
30:06Minus three and a half.
30:07Most outlets here now showing threes across the board.
30:10And a total, Joe, that opened up at 51 and a half.
30:12You see that graphic.
30:13We are down to 47 and a half everywhere right now.
30:16Hurts versus Prescott.
30:18The Eagles' defense rammed up.
30:19Dallas looking to get revenge.
30:21What gives for you on Sunday here between these two?
30:23Yeah, you know who leads the league in three and outs this year, Donnie?
30:30The Philadelphia Eagles offense.
30:3231%, in fact, for three and out.
30:35That's just, that leads the league, and that's just crazy.
30:38But good thing they have a defense here.
30:41I loved the under earlier in the week, Donnie.
30:43That's the way I bet this game.
30:46I got an under 49 and a half.
30:48But listen, we've given you the numbers, right?
30:50Dallas, defensively, you saw it last week, much better.
30:55And they're going up against an offense.
30:58Forget about the Philadelphia Eagles.
30:59They're going up against an offense that, again, leads the league in three and out.
31:03So Dallas at home and Dak Prescott, throughout his career,
31:07has always been profitable against the NFC East.
31:12He's dominated them.
31:13No reason, if you can get three and a half, Donnie,
31:16not to take the three, three and a half with the home team here as an underdog.
31:22Ooh, Kirk Cousins returns back to the saddle with Penix being down.
31:25He'll be the quarterback the rest of the way out.
31:27Shuck on the other side, down in New Orleans.
31:29He will probably be the quarterback on the way out for the rest of the season as well.
31:33A 39 and a half price point on the total, and a favorite here for New Orleans.
31:37My goodness, Atlanta can't stop the free fall.
31:40But can they do it this weekend?
31:41And do they deserve to be underdogs against the Saints?
31:44Well, listen, the Saints do one thing well defensively, and that is stop the run.
31:50The secondary has gotten beat up this year.
31:53And the question is, coming out of a bye, do we think that Kirk Cousins,
31:58who looks about as disinterested at 37 years old in playing than anybody?
32:04I mean, why would you?
32:04You got a $180 million contract, and you get to hold a clipboard on the sideline,
32:09and you still get your check.
32:11You know, at 37, he's not 27, Donnie's 37.
32:13What's the motivation here, one way or the other?
32:17So I'd be a little suspect here with Atlanta and Kirk Cousins running away with this game.
32:23But there's just no way I can back a favorite spot here with New Orleans.
32:29I do think the under, though, might be the best look of this game.
32:33All B. John, all day.
32:35Why?
32:36Drake London's not even going to play in this football game with that knee injury.
32:38Tough times for the Atlanta Falcons.
32:40We'll see if that improves in the Dome.
32:41If not, that embarrassing season will continue.
32:44Sunday Night Football, we got a good one here.
32:46Tampa Bay showed up in Buffalo, got hammered last week when the Rams had an emotional victory
32:50where the defense forced multiple turnovers, including four interceptions on Sam Darnold,
32:54to come away with a victory.
32:55They, the Rams, are favored by six and a half points with a total, Joe, of 49 and a half.
33:01Telling you, the public's loving Tampa Bay here.
33:03I say not so fast right now.
33:05Maybe the Rams can get this one done as well at home.
33:08Yeah, listen, I think the Rams can win.
33:10I think it's a big ask for them to have to win by more than a touchdown here,
33:16especially given the fact that I don't love the spot for Tampa, by the way,
33:20having to go to Orchard Park last week, fly back home, then now fly out to L.A. to take them on here.
33:27The Rams have been reliable in this spot, certainly in a primetime spot here,
33:33but there's so many injuries with the Bucs on the offensive line.
33:37Now the defensive side, it's tough to trust them,
33:41but I do think maybe the under, again, might not be a bad look in this spot.
33:45Expect the defenses to have a little more success in this one than the offenses.
33:50Defenses stepping up.
33:52Do they step up on Monday night football as we take a look at the Carolina Panthers
33:55and the San Francisco 49ers?
33:57I think we might get some points here.
33:58And by the way, the disrespect to your Bryce Young,
34:01last game out against the Falcons, 448 and three touchdowns
34:04and a pass rating of 123.2.
34:07He's got a leather low passing prop here.
34:09I do think we have a chance to get some sparks
34:12because now you get Brock Purdy back.
34:13It's healthy as the 49ers have been on offense all season long.
34:16Why can't we get 50 in this game on Monday night, Joe?
34:18Well, I think this is a buy low.
34:21I think the 49ers, the market has completely missed the boat, Donnie,
34:26because you're right.
34:27Purdy is healthy.
34:28Kittle is healthy.
34:29Ricky Pearsall is back here.
34:32This 49ers offense has been playing at one of the fastest paces in the league, Donnie,
34:38even with a backup quarterback in Mac Jones.
34:41I mean, Purdy's averaging over seven and a half yards per pass play.
34:46I mean, and they're going quickly here.
34:49So I think they're going to be able to put up a ton of points in this game.
34:52I'm with you.
34:54I love San Francisco and I love the over in this game.
34:57How about Tett McMillan on the outside?
35:00Kid is unstoppable.
35:01What a great draft pick.
35:02The kid looks like he has a really bright future.
35:04And I just think Carolina coming into his own a little bit more on offense.
35:07Once you got that ground game cranked up, he moves on from Trouba Hubbard to Rico Dowdle.
35:10It's really paid dividends here.
35:12And also, Joe, what are your thoughts on Carolina actually making a wild card run
35:17or even a legitimate chance to knock off Tampa Bay?
35:20Tampa Bay struggling right now.
35:22Not too far ahead of them.
35:23Yeah, well, the problem is they got a ton of injuries on that offensive line.
35:28Now, I believe their best linebacker, Rosenboom, is not going to be available for this game.
35:34They got to get healthy, Donnie.
35:36And then we can have a conversation about Carolina upsetting the apple cart.
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